Show Archives

April 2, 2019 Update – A monetary system fit for degenerates

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-The harsh critics of the private central banking system are sadly mistaken if they think this system is going to collapse.
-It actually is not that difficult to keep this system going. The central banks have proven themselves as worthy to the task. The global pool of investors now view the central banks as their partners.
-This system is designed to be satanic to its core and it’s purposely constructed for maximum soul stripping.
-This current system is the same system described in Revelation. The wealth inequality going out into the future will be mind blowing. The vast majority of people will have nothing but debt, while the captains and the chiefs will own it all. The people will look to the government for help and socialism will expand greatly into the future.
-The central banks are clearly going to do whatever it takes to keep things going.
-Dow 30k coming soon? I predicted Dow 20k when the Dow was 16,500. The central banks are welcoming higher asset prices.
-I have been predicting lower interest rates. That’s what we are getting

February 18th Market Update – Wrapping our minds around potentially explosive dovish monetary policy

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-Trump folds on the wall and spending and the U.S./China outlook ostensibly brightens. All the government officials are saying market supportive things. I just observe how they are all speaking with one mind. Their intention to support asset prices is remarkable.
-The RBA discusses dovishness. The PBOC is injecting massive liquidity and undertaking their own unconventional policy.
The Fed adds to its balance sheet last week. That is truly dovish.
-If things roll over and the Fed begins to add in earnest, and the other central banks like the ECB and PBOC add to assets and inject unprecedented liquidity, the Dow could blow through 30k.
-All the ingredients for unconventional policy formation is present; low inflation (despite strong employment), low interest rates, and weak economic growth worldwide are all prerequisites for the promulgation of hyper-growth in the central banks’ balance sheets.
-The relatively strong U.S. economy is what is keeping the ECB from resuming further easing. If they eased now the euro would sink into the abyss.
-If dovish policy grows, look for residential real estate prices to further disconnect from economic fundamentals.
The 10-year UST futures COT is pointing to a floor in yields here and a resistance in UST prices. This is shorter-term and not a change in the secular trend.
-Gold looks good, according to the latest COT report. Silver and Pl need to catch up. If we test 1,362 again, we should take it out. This price has been longer-term resistance over the past few years. Once in 2016 and again last year. If we take it out on close, 1,400 could be in the cards.
-Keep in mind that oil and gold have been doing well despite a very strong dollar.
-Oil has responded well and is up against the 100-day mva. 

February 4th Update – The art of ruling the people is ancient and the techniques only get more perfected

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First item; This Wednesday at 7:30 pm, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will host a town hall meeting with educators from across the country joining him in the Board Room of the Federal Reserve Board’s main building in Washington D.C.
-Tonight at 7:30 pm, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the 50 Club of Cleveland Annual meeting in Cleveland, Ohio. 
Second item; Most people are embracing the tenets of the NWO. The NWO is a spiritual system of voluntary servitude and self-indulgence. Why have FEMA thugs forcibly take our DNA samples, when the vast majority give it away freely? Privacy rights in the internet age are an oxymoron.
-The nation is already one big FEMA debt slave camp. The FEMA camps and Army CILFs will have the barbed wire turned outward, to keep people from trying to get in.
-Is the internet a good thing? Any close relatives who send in their DNA for geneology and medical testing have, in effect, given your DNA to the government authorities. Look at this case, for instance.  
Third Item; A discussion of Alan Watt’s February 3rd podcast – The art of ruling people only gets more perfected.

 

February 3rd Market Update – Housing analysis and the data I use; Stocks, gold and silver, oil, bonds, bitcoin; Chart and market action and my predictions

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-Housing analysis; Are we beginning to see a shift toward some sort of longer-term equilibrium? Time will tell as we are still in a deficit, but things may eventually change. New Homes sales are slowly rising and the average and median prices have fallen. Residential construction rose, after a drop in September and October.
-December’s data has been delayed, because of the government “shutdown, but home builders may be adjusting. Build more units and use cheaper-grade materials. They need to adjust to higher mortgage rates.

As mortgage rates rose the home builders have responded with more cheaply made housing.  With rates dropping will this trend change?
Home builders have begun to shift to lower cost housing. Will this affect new home sales in the future?
I look at housing starts, but this includes apartment units. I prefer single-family housing as that shows the truer sense of what the market desires.
(New home sales in thousands) Let’s hope October was an anomaly. Rental properties still have good support as these numbers still need to rise further. For existing rental property owners, the worse the numbers, the better your prospects.

-I am concerned that traders may begin to speculate on how genuine the Fed is with its dovish stance. The latest Fed balance sheet data indicate a further asset unwind.

-I am turning neutral on gold this week; We have been bullish on gold since mid-August at 1190-1200. The COT report from way back in late December indicates a large shift in sentiment. The Commercials added tons of shorts at a much lower price and while the numbers back then were still reasonable, I am sure the trend intensified over the next five weeks. We are up $130 since our bull call.
-I am neutral on oil and the 10-year UST. Though the COT report is more bullish for oil, I have to think that after a test of the 100 day mva (59.25 currently, but dropping fast) we will rest. Moreover, we need to see the XOP pop above 31 resistance to 33-34, before I am convinced higher prices will prevail.
-The gold and 10-year COT reports show how well a trader can do when he or she trades against the large specs when they are overly stretched.
-Still bearish on BTC; One descending triangle after another. Is the latest floor in the low 3,000’s about to break? There have been several descending triangles over the past year; all within one huge year-long descending triangle. There is a lot of blood in the crypto realm and many of the gurus are now broke and need to liquidate. Lethal overconfidence on display as things wipe out.

February 1st Update – A message to the end time profits; What happens if they don’t ban cash, the Dow goes up to 40,000, and there is no economic collapse? 

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-I think the stock averages may have topped out here short-term. I sold my day trade stocks. (2:50 pm)
-The averages are all right around their 100-day mva’s. We need a rest and I think a drop to the 50-day is warranted.
-These are trendless markets and the moving averages are important as the other traders are looking at them, too.
-Some may think the the strong unemployment report may place the Fed’s dovish policy in doubt in the short-term.
-My short-term concern is that some traders may begin to also question the Fed’s sudden change of direction. They may think the Fed sees something they have not admitted.
-The COT reports should come out later today. I will analyze them are report my predictions.
-I see a lot of unwitting end time profits in the church. They all predict economic collapse, a ban on cash, and stock market collapses. What if they don’t come about?
-Satan knows us better than we know ourselves. He knows the eschatology students are preaching economic and market collapse and a ban on cash as prerequisites to the tribulation period. I submit there is no need to have any of these come about. The Fed could continue printing cash all the way to the day Jesus comes back, but hardly anyone would accept cash for payment as that would not make them good citizens.
-This would allow the end time system to come in through the back door while the church was looking the other way.
-The vast majority of people will embrace the end time system. They won’t be rounded up and sent to FEMA camps. They will love this system. It will approve of their self-indulgent behavior.
-False dilemmas in the church. Christians have been conditioned to look at money with disdain and to think that their desire to gain wealth is anathema to Christian doctrine.
-If our desire to gain wealth is to help us achieve independence and self-sovereignty as a Christian then our goals can be viewed as being noble. Our goal is to become as independent of the system as possible. The freedom afforded to those who are free of the system’s encumbrances is exhilarating.
-Those who will be the most ensnared will be those who are dependent on the system or government, in debt, fearful, or are tied to unbelievers.

January 30th Market Update – The US Fed delivered more than anyone expected

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-The Fed blew the doors off the market. What a change in only about five weeks. This is completely unprecedented. They even issued a separate statement on their asset balance sheet actions.
-The Fed will probably keep an oversized balance sheet on an ongoing basis (a significant buffer). The Fed hinted at rates cuts and balance sheet additions.
-Powell discussed how liquidity needs (meaning monetization of gov’t debt) continue to balloon.
-The trading community is betting on rate cuts starting in January 2020, with little chance of additional rate hikes in this cycle.
The Dow futures briefly took out the 100 & 200 day mva, and stand right at them as I write. The S&P and Nasdaq are moving closer to these important mva’s. Look at what FB has done in the aftermarket. There is a lot of money that sold out and needs to be redeployed. I bought more stocks right after the Fed announcement. I will sell on any further lift. Perhaps the lift might be getting long, but don’t count out any spikes higher.
-Look at how gold, silver, oil have done. The XOP is bumping against 31 resistance.
-This does not mean that the global economy is out of the woods, but this goes a long way to calm the global credit markets.
-The Fed is increasingly discussing how its policy is affecting the global economy. It previously operated with little emphasis on its actions and the rest of the world. The dollar fell and this helps to calm global dollar debt markets.
-The central banks, led by the Fed, will do whatever it takes to support asset prices. 
-I contemplate a world where the central banks will have expanded balance sheets and will do whatever it takes to make certain asset prices grow.  With bond yields clearly on the down trend, I see items like real estate finding support again.
-If the Fed gets anymore dovish we may begin to hear about how Larry Summers wants negative short term rates again. 

January 28th Market Update – I wonder if too many traders are anticipating more Fed dovishness

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-The FOMC announces policy on Wednesday, with Jerome Powell’s press conference shortly after. If the Fed hints at anything conflicting with Friday morning’s WSJ article, the markets could dump. Stocks, commodities, and gold could get hit. Things are priced very optimistically.
-Except for some short-term trades, all my trading accounts are in cash and I am waiting for the appropriate signals.
-XOP hitting resistance at 30. My concern is that the drillers are performing worse than oil. WTI needs to stay above its 50-day mva of 50.90.
-The BOJ QE has been progressing for at least 25 years. I marvel at all the well-respected economists who contemplate that the Japan’s QE cannot continue indefinitely. I SAY THEY CAN.
-COT reports are still not out and that hinders my weekly futures trades. I am uncertain as to where I see gold. The market action looks good, though the price rises are not very sizable. My one concern about silver and gold is that they are trading much higher than their 200-day mva’s. It’s not a concern short-term, but unless there is a bull market breakout this will eventually cause problems.
-The bond market is in a holding pattern, waiting for hints from the Fed. The global credit market problems have eased since late December when the Fed turned tail.
-Stocks indexes are all positioned similarly above their 50-day mva’s. The elites hope to keep things this way and this is a reason why I think the Fed will not make too much of a fuss on Wednesday.
-The Trump/China trade problems present some great trading opportunities. It changes every day, so sell on “breakthrough” news and buy on the doom.
-The trade dilemma is not supposed to be resolved. It is institutionalized and was set up that way almost 50 years ago. The friction just supports our thesis of future war. Since Trump gained office the trade deficit with China has ballooned.
-Cryptocurrency analysis. The chart and market action still point to further bad news for the bulls. I have no opinion on the cryptos as an asset class, but when XLM, a top-10 crypto, takes out its former bear-market low, I take note.
-Bitcoin analysis in isolation is misguided. I get a much better feel for BTC trading by looking at the larger alt-coins.

January 25th Update – If you think the internet is a good thing, take a look at how the vast sea of humanity has changed in 25 years

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Note: I speak as a Christian remnant and someone who understands the new world order and the agenda to enslave humanity

-The internet may be a good thing for a particular person, but for 90% of humanity it has been a detriment. Degeneracy can be easily reaffirmed through the internet.
-The wealth gap has only widened since the internet went mainstream. For most of the population (yes, the alt-financial followers) making financial decisions based on what they see on the internet is a one-way ticket to poverty.
-Our Adversary loves the alt-financial media. He gets so excited every time another blogger puts out another article proclaiming economic calamity.
-Satan will get his black horse and there is no need for collapse; just the fear is enough. Everyone will be chasing their tails while the end time monetary system will come in through the back door.
-With the web, people can effortlessly indulge in any idea. If we wonder why families, morals, and intellectual capacity have degraded so quickly, we can thank the latest technologies like the internet, cell phones, and TV. It’s a job well done by the elites.
-Satan loves to spread fear and hopelessness. Learned helplessness and despair are wonderful to the elites. The more drugs we take and the more people who commit suicide, the more the agenda is fueled.
-The manufactured social divides widen with the internet. The confirmation and cognitive biases are preyed upon. Humanity is quickly being subdued and placed into a satanic cattle pen.
-I have to conclude that most of the technology of the past 50-80 years was given to humanity by some other force.
-This end time agenda is speeding up tremendously. Satan knows he has but a short time. The introduction of the internet is the only way he can hope to achieve his goal.
-Those who are in debt, depend on W-2 or 1099 income, an employer, or rely on government benefits will be the first ones to be gone. Those who are liquid and rely on passive or business income will remain around longer.
-I have built up 2.5 years of living expenses in liquidity.  We need to stay out of debt and remain liquid.
-There is no need for the elites to confiscate our checking accounts. They will paper it over with debt, which will be a deflationary millstone.
-I am still investing and planning for the future. I plan to buy more real estate. Prices in many areas (even the greater DC area) are still reasonable.

January 20th Market Update – Stocks and bonds responded well to the stimulus; moving averages discussed; Trading thoughts; Loose money will shut out more real estate buyers

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The elites achieved their objective and took out the 50-day mva. I suspect we need a rest and the 50-day will be the first test of support.
Look at all those nice green candles that took out the 50-day mva. We said this was done by design to deliver a statement.
The Nasdaq has been above the 50-day mva longer. All the problems with AAPL have not yet affected the rest of the Nasdaq. AAPL earnings come out on 1/29. When it comes to Buffett and tech, bet against him.

-Unless the stock market rolls back over, which I doubt, US Treasury yields will retest their moving averages. The yield curve is managed, so serious conversation on yield curve inversions is pointless.
-I received an email asking me to discuss BREXIT and what I think will happen. My analysis on how power is consolidated. Once the consolidation is achieved it is NEVER relinquished. All power continues to consolidate.
-The NWO is built on a wall of worry. All this upcoming chaos is generated. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Reaches Record High
More people think that real estate has topped out. I see this as a contrarian indicator. When the central banks begin to engage in more unconventional monetary policy look for house prices to continue to move higher. More people will be priced out.
-Rents are 37% higher nationwide than at the height of the last real estate bubble (1/01/2006).

Rents are much higher this time around. While prices may seem as high, or higher, than in 2006, cap rates and IRRs are more attractive.
Despite the talk of doom many of the housing numbers do not point to calamity
The demand in real estate is greater than what most are claiming

January 19th Update – As society decays, the teachings of the Talmud are spreading worldwide

Note: I will put out a separate market update later this weekend.

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-A reader sent in an email about a January 16th podcast from Trunews.com, discussing the Talmud and how those who aspire to be rich are embracing its teachings
THE ART OF TALMUD: CHINESE COMMIES SEEK ISRAEL’S BABYLONIAN SECRET KNOWLEDGE
Talmud-inspired learning craze sweeps South Korea
Inside China’s Bizarre Obsession With Jews
-The alt-financial media get it wrong over and over again. The control of the Synagogue of Satan was on full display last month.
-What would the elites have to gain from collapsing their system? None, except to leverage the manufactured chaos to consolidate their wealth, power, and control
-Instead of calling it the “Great Recession,” perhaps we should call the manufactured 2008 financial crisis as “The Great Buying Opportunity.”
-Why do the alt-financial media fail over and over? They cannot accept that these elites are in control. They are like people who grow up in religious families and know the truth, but reject it. The alt-financial media and their followers will never accept the truth and based on these lethal confirmation biases, they will make the worst financial decisions over and over. Their followers grow more helpless and hopeless.
-Imagine if we shorted these markets in December? I begged you not to short these markets. Once the Fed came out and the plunge protection team intervened, I loaded up my trading account with a bunch of stinker stocks and rode them up. I have been peeling them off and have about 25% of the original position left.

 

 

January 16th Market Update – Expanding central bank balance sheets fuel asset prices; Falling oil prices too much for central banks to take; The alt-media is short on knowledge, but long on showmanship

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The S&P futures are right near 50-day mva. The central banks and US Treasury are hoping the index retakes the moving averages
The Nasdaq took out the 50-day mva today
The Down needs to move up some more before the 50-day mva is taken out. It is vital that we retake the 50-day mva and the elites are hoping for this to happen.

The central bank balance sheets are once again expanding in aggregate. The latest research shows that the central banks have begun to add to their balance sheets once the the major stock averages began their precipitous free fall late last month.

A sustained drop in oil prices would have been calamitous to the credit markets. The $30 drop was too much for the central banks to take. They acted accordingly.

-There are still decent real estate prices and some fair deals in the United States. So what if prices took out their 2005 highs? Rents are up about 30% over that time. Camparatively, residential real estate can still provide predictable returns. Just stay away from the overpriced areas. Simple math can determine this.
-Mortgage rates are down about 50 bps. Subsidized mortgages are doubleplusgood.
-I look for the 10-year UST yield to touch the 50-day mva. 
-There is so much dishonesty and showmanship in the alt-financial media.
X22 Report has about 350k YouTube subscribers, but virtually all his predictions have been incorrect. But that doesn’t matter. He’s short on financial market skill, but long on showmanship. He must make a lot of money on his monetized channel. He just keeps shoveling the crap to the unwashed masses who have convinced themselves that collapse is right around the corner for the past decade.
-For people who listen to and follow the X22 Report or the other charlatans in the alt-financial media, their lives have already collapsed. These dumbed-down patriots are now unable to free themselves from their confirmation bias and the shackles of calamity fears, while these dispensers of collapse porn sink their followers further into the abyss.

January 14th Market Update – Moving averages are important; The latest trade data point to continued problems; AMZN and AAPL have problems; Bitcoin, treasuries, and the dollar 

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-Domestic stock market analysis with some ideas.
-In this uncertain trading environment, a look at the moving averages is important
-Fed Vice-Chair, Richard Clarida, talks the party line
-I still think the Fed may unwind the balance sheet more than what some are hoping for.
-A retrace of 10-year UST yields to 50-day mva (2.93%) is in the cards.
-It is difficult to determine how gold and oil will do when we do not have the COT reports. The weakish US dollar should continue to support both as well as the commodity sector.
-The concerns over the flattening yield curve may be unwarranted. We live in a centrally-managed economy and financial system
The latest Chinese trade data do not help the trade negotiations and will continue to cause problems for the foreseeable future.
-AMZN and Jeff Bezos. Could we look back 10 years from now and say this was the beginning of the end for AMZN? Bezos is 54, will probably lose half his shares, and seems more concerned about chasing tail at this point. It is easy for him to take his eye off the ball. Some say he is interested in running for office. That is too many distractions. Bezos said that eventually all companies die of old age. Is he hinting at something?
-AAPL has its own set of problems. It doesn’t have Steve Jobs anymore and Tim Cook cannot seem to conjure up more novel ideas. Is he just squeezing out extra toothpaste from the tube? When Warren Buffett catches on to a tech company’s financial engineering, perhaps it’s too late. AAPL is not a banking firm.
-AMZN and AAPL problems don’t necessarily spell the end of the Nasdaq rally, but it can’t help.
Are the latest bitcoin stories believable? Any BTC bull should dip back into the game and pick up a small starter position. The returns are asymmetric.

January 11th Educational Update – Getting ahead in rural America; Prosper during desperate times

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Keep in mind that social proof is a very powerful force. It keeps the debt-slaves in their place and is a self-imposed slavery of the mind. The Opioid crisis and degradation of the wage-base are pounded over our heads to promote hopelessness and despair. We can overcome.

Meet a person who works three jobs and cannot stay ahead; A perspective of life in Wilkes-Barrie, PA. But this can pertain to any rural or economically depressed area in the United States. It could pertain to Dayton, OH, or Huntington WV (two cities I have traveled to, my mother lived in Dayton as a child).
-In Wilkes-Barrie there are over 90 houses that sell below $50,000. Many of these homes can be bought with seller financing or with federally-subsidized loans, with little money out of pocket.
-Chris, the person in the interview, could borrow $20-30,000 from his or his wife’s parents to buy his first couple houses.
-He can learn how to work with the Section-8 housing voucher program, which assists with the rent payments of lower-income tenants. He can provide a valuable service to his community while making superior cash flow.
-In many working-class and lower-income areas, Section-8 housing vouchers will provide higher rents than non-subsidized rents.
-I have participated in the Section-8 voucher program in the past and observed that my subsidized tenants were often superior in many regards to my non-voucher tenants. They appreciated my efforts to provide them a great place to live. All it takes sometimes are stainless-steel appliances.
-If these voucher holders do not take care of the premises, abide by any of the terms of lease, or do not pay their stipend portion, they can lose their vouchers. You can be their last hope. Develop a good relationship with the county voucher case workers and you will be sought out by everyone, even other sellers.
-There is a lot of hope and we can move forward.
-Chris could easily acquire 8-10 homes over several years. He can eventually quit a couple of his jobs and have enough money for retirement. He could take vacations with his family and live a longer life.

January 9th Economic Update – Market analysis and commentary; Normative vs. positive economics; People are becoming more irrationally irrational

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-Fed policy flip/flop gives some great long opportunities. Will it last? The markets reacted in a very predictable manner.
-Emerging market stresses have abated and the US dollar has faded, as expected
-With less uncertainty in the emerging markets, oil is rising. Lower interest rates help the drillers
-Gold holding up with the rest of the commods.
Normative economics vs. positive economics. I don’t give my opinion on normative policy and objectives. In order to succeed financially, we must analyze the results of normative social policy ( we use positive economic analysis of cause and effect), and make decisions based on the likely outcomes of social spending programs.
-We cannot change the world at large. How we respond to it will make the difference. It takes an objective and independent mind; a rare commodity.
-Social objectives always come with hidden costs and negative externalities. If we can identify them, we can stay ahead of the rest of the population
-People are acting less rationally irrational. They are becoming more irrationally irrational. They can no longer take care of themselves and are quickly losing their free-will.
-I propose some reasons why humanity is becoming less able to think rationally. A Jeff Rense interview with Tim Rifat. 
-The futurists from 50-150 years ago all discussed how humanity would turn out. They were correct. Look around.
-Take a step away from the daily news feed and social media, regardless of source. We are being conditioned to accept chaos and depravity.
-Our hope is that we can overcome the hypnosis and degradation of western humanity to move forward and succeed.
-Boom/bust cycles; why they are accelerating in speed and amplitude. It has nothing to do with what Martin Armstrong discusses.

January 8th Update – Answers to email questions; My thoughts on forgiving student loan debt, universal health care, and the Trump wall and mass immigration

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-Keep in mind, I am not here to offer my opinion on whether I like or dislike social spending.
-What would happen if the US government forgave $1 trillion in student loans? Who would benefit and who would suffer? I apply economic logic to show how we would be impacted
-Does a country benefit with universal health care? Do the benefits outweigh the costs?
-The politicians and demagogues count on the average person never making these simple connections.
-I feel badly for most Canadians. Their personal debt levels are out of control, but the costs of social spending manifest somewhere. There is no such thing as a free lunch and the tax burdens are continuing to rise. Moreover the massive deficit spending and personal debt accumulation create negotiable debt instruments that are used to buy up other assets. In Canada, the specific problems arise in its real estate markets.
-Michael Moore won’t ever tell you this, but what is the cost of universal health care in Canada? A real estate market that will forever be more expensive than the average tax-slave can afford.
-With respect to the Trump wall, notice how Trump is being pitted against two highly polarizing and unpopular democrats (Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer). If the democrats wanted to stop all this, the party could have presented a middle-of-the-road Senator from the Midwest. It’s just Kayfabe and the battle of the meaningless must continue.
-It is amazing how worked up many of my friends have gotten over this wall situation.
-Where are the costs for immigration borne? How does the average person lose?
-How do we stay ahead of the social and deficit spending?
-Gold shills get it wrong all the time. If we have a hyper-inflationary collapse, I will tell you where to invest.

January 6th Update – Ray Dalio may be a genius, but he is a disingenuous shill; More Fed analysis; Some surprising long-term predictions 

Ben Bernanke met with Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner yesterday to discuss the economy and financial system. He is surprised the markets are holding up this well and that comparisons with last decade are seriously misguided. I agree.
-Mortgage rates around the world are dropping. Denmark’s home buyers will soon borrow at 1.5%. Japanese buyers borrow at less than 1%. Germany’s rate for a 30-year is just over 2%.
-The next move for US mortgage rates is down; perhaps eventually taking out the old lows over the next few years. GET READY!
Some smart money is building build to rent single-family housing. People cannot manage their debt-slave lives and will occupy these residences.
-The central banks are desperate to raise rates and unwind their balance sheets to have ammo for the next downturn. They will fall short and will have to resort to unconventional policy (<0% rates and bigger balance sheets)
Ray Dalio has an agenda and it is to appease the ChiCom government, so he can deploy his billions into sweetheart ChiCom deals.
-Ray Dalio is like Tokyo Rose, but the alt-financial media, which is desperate to see the destruction of the Anglo-American establishment and NWO, pick up on his shilling to perpetuate its poverty echo chamber.
-We used last month’s IMF data to state the case that the dollar is not going anywhere for the indefinite future.
-We may be surprised that the stock markets may hold up better than the alt-financial is contemplating. When I see the alt-financial media proclaiming Dow 3,000 and that NFLX is worth $0, I think we may bottom sooner rather than later.
-The tens of trillions in new sovereign bonds that were issued this past decade are being used as monetary equivalents and leverageable assets to buy up all sorts of assets. Those with the collateral will do the buying. These bonds can help the nations to issue more debt. This outstanding debt is highly deflationary as it must be serviced and paid back, thus creating a sucking force out of the economy.
-Asset prices will continue to rise and all this social spending will just crowd out private investment and further impoverish the average person. These people will cry out to government for help, which will only further tighten the shackles.

January 5th Update – My quick take on yesterday’s Federal Reserve monetary round table

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– Three U.S. central bank leaders — current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his immediate past predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke — spoke in a roundtable Friday morning in Atlanta at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting.
-The Fed is clearly adjusting their language to accommodate the increasing market volatility
-The Fed was concerned that Jerome Powell’s presence would not be strong enough, so they added Yellen and Bernanke to the panel interview.
-The purpose of yesterday’s panel discussion of the Fed chiefs was to show a unified approach to monetary policy.
-Yesterday’s panel was there to help enhance the Fed reputation and that it knows it will get the blame if things roll over.
-We are not out of the woods, as credit market problems are persisting and growing. However, the drop in sovereign yields around the world are a direct reflection in the change in the Fed’s stance.
-On Thursday, the Brookings Institute released a Janet Yellen interview in which she reiterated her concerns over elevated asset prices.
-On  two occasions yesterday, the panel (Bernanke) recognized the Fed’s need to look at what its policy was doing to the global economy. I think this is the first time they discussed this as an important concern.
-US unemployment numbers were much better than anticipated, but I have always stated that employment levels are a coincident indicator, at best.
-Guidance by AAPL is more of a forward or leading indicator, so we still may eventually have problems, regardless of Fed policy
Mortgage rates dropping fast will lend support to real estate.
-Two recommendations going forward (working-class real estate and cash)

January 3rd Market Update – Remaining objective in a subjective world

-Market volatility is to be expected as things continue to unwind
-AAPL earnings and guidance are truer leading economic indicators. Unemployment (Today’s bullish ADP numbers) is a lagging indicator.
-Credit market problems in Canada and Australia (via their real estate markets) are just symptoms of further problems to come. Chinese economic and credit market contractions are quickening
-Plan for the inevitable outcome of negative rates in the US and the other developed world
-We were warned almost a year ago that credit and asset markets were going to do what they are doing now.
-Cryptos still point downward. As credit contracts there will be no way that these assets will move higher.
-Gold still looks good and the COT report still points to a bullish tilt. $1,300 by tomorrow?
-Trump is creating a lot of uncertainty and the Fed flight path was preprogrammed going back before the 2016 election. Bernanke talked about balance sheet unwind when he was Fed Chair.
-Powell is carrying out the plan, but the Trump problems are creating the unforeseen. Trump is not our ally, as I question his stability. The working class has continued to fall further behind under the Trump economic policies.
-Trump is not fighting the new world order. He was put in to promote the new world order’s next phase.
-Currency market volatility precludes us from actively speculating in currencies.
-Working class real estate is the only asset class I see as still providing opportunity
-There will be opportunities to those with the liquidity

New Years Update – Make the most of 2019 and embrace the opportunities; Commentary of Network (movie, 1976)

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-People have been talking about collapse since I was a child. For those who are the unwitting victims of the new world order, it may seem like one. 
-Society has been transforming for a long time and it is a society that most people find acceptable. It has become Sodom and Egypt. The few (you and I) who do not need to adjust and move forward. We need to carry the goodness in our hearts and help others who will listen.
-Our adversary enjoys the collapse fear-mongering. The people who are addicted to the collapse talk never plan for the future.
-The battle is mental. Look around and see the degeneracy. The vast percentage of humanity have already succumbed.
-2019 will present so many opportunities to succeed. We can defeat the NWO, but not in the way most imagine.
Network (I am mad as hell….)
-We have been told where the world is moving. Why did Jesus come to this planet?
-My one reservation about an upcoming stock market/economic collapse; how can there be one when half the investors have already planned for one? By definition, that is the self-correcting mechanism.
-Stay liquid and pay down debt.

December 22nd Market/Investing Update – Behavioral psychology and economics; Making the right decisions; Market updates with predictions

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-In the last few months, I have observed a tremendous increase in the amount of pre-programmed gloomy talk coming from the MSM. I include Bloomberg and CNBC. The Alt-financial media is irrelevant as it has been recommending shorting the stock market since the May 2010 “flash-crash.” I tune out the alt-financial press.
-the Same owners of the MSM who own the alt-media as well as social media also control central bank policy. They are clearly steering the hive-mind consensus of the population into accepting a protracted economic downturn.
-The psychological techniques of Edward Bernays have been perfected and the Synagogue of Satan is selling us economic catastrophe the same way they sell us cars.
-Manufactured instability with Trump and Powell leading the way.
-The USDX remains of concern. If Fed policy deviates too far from economic stability we could see the dollar fall like in 2007/2008.
-Imagine the wholesale raping of society that will take place as the central banks appear as our saviors.
-Why I recommended cash in late January. I look at how the ex-Fed chiefs all began to talk down the markets. The Fed chiefs who all decade were loathe to identify asset bubbles, began to trash talk market valuations. All at the same time, the Fed has demonstrated an arbitrarily hawkish policy.
-I have to conclude on some level that Jerome Powell is following a script and has little room to deviate.
-The level of the Fed funds rate and the amount of balance sheet unwind is less important than the rate and speed of change. The Fed seems intent on a fast tightening in the face of accelerating credit market deterioration. It kept rates at 0% for at least seven years and now it is raising without regard to impending disasters, especially in the various credit markets.
-Psychological analysis into the market behavior of a typical boom/bust cycle. 
-How to spot opportunity in a bear market
-In the bottom of a bear market, there is little competition. In asset manias, competition is fierce.
-Market demand is based on the number of participants who intend to buy. There really is little demand in real estate as many people who want to buy are incapable of owning. They either don’t have enough savings, can’t make enough money, are not responsible enough, or cannot psychologically own. They rely on social proof to make large purchase decisions and will always lose money. This is why the elites have developed social media – enhance the hive-mind.
-It’s easy to financially rape the hive-mind society
-Gold looks very good. The auspicious COT report looks to lend support. A test of 1,300?
-Oil drop is so swift. I am concerned that we still have downside. Fed policy is destroying the drillers.  Short-term stock objectives prevail over the long-term.
-A technical analysis of all three domestic stock averages. Where I think we are testing first. It seems like a fait accompli.
-Bond market commentary and analysis in light of willfully ignorant Fed policy.

Links to media and articles discussed-
10-Year UST COT Chart
Gold COT Chart
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – December 21, 2018
Americans getting more pessimistic about the economy

December 20th Market Update – Commentary of Stanley Druckenmiller interview and his discussion of the chronically misguided US Fed policy

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Note: Druckenmiller does not understand the conspiracy like we do. He sees the US Fed policy as seriously misguided, but we see it as intentional. He does know that the Fed always gets it wrong and waits to benefit from the resulting asset busts. Interview date; December 18th.

-Analysis and commentary of the in-depth Stanley Druckenmiller interview on Bloomberg.com
-From beginning of interview to about the 5:00 mark; Something’s not right with the economy and the Fed is tightening into weakness
-Eight years of free money and the Fed encourages the reach for yield. Pulling back late in the cycle.
-Around the 12:00 minute mark; If the Fed continues to act hawkish and raise rates without pausing, financial rot may not have time to surface. If and when it does the Fed will have to act in a much more drastic fashion. Druckenmiller says 5x or 10x as much.
-Imagine the types of programs the Fed will conjure up after things really fall apart again. The Fed is setting the stage for more unconventional monetary policy as the answer to the crisis it caused.
-Druckenmiller marvels and wonders what the Fed is looking at in their analysis as they always get it wrong.
-Powell is the white goyum. He will get the blame.
-I tell you it is done by design. Druckenmiller says he looks to the bear market busts as opportunities to increase his wealth and we should, too. The eiltes engineer these boom/bust cycles to consolidate their wealth.
-Fed looks at inflation and unemployment (both considered lagging indicators) to formulate policy.
-The level of the Fed funds rate is less important than the rate of change. He says that the Fed should have started raising rates much sooner.
-The balance sheet unwind is the most troubling as the Fed is executing it on auto-pilot.
-He says that Powell is setting us up for a deflationary bust. When things fall apart we need to stand ready and act.

December 16, 2018 Market Update – Stocks, bonds, interest rates, oil, XOP, gold, silver, USD, bitcoin; What will the US Fed say on Wednesday? Some predictions

-I have been using the weekly charts for most of my asset market analysis. The daily charts are not showing the complete pictures
-Some price predictions
-The charts could all be repainted with a hawkish US Fed announcement and press conference
-I anticipate a slightly soft tone out of the Fed. All the charts (S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA, oil, USD, US Treasuries) are at precarious positions and anything lending to a stronger dollar and much higher Fed funds rates in 2019 could put asset prices in jeopardy. The Fed sees what we see and will be careful.
-I don’t short the markets like last decade. They are all well-managed now and official intervention can destroy our trading accounts.
-My liquid net worth is still in cash. As a percent of my net worth, I don’t own all that much gold and silver anymore (3-4%). Gold and silver has suffered at the expense of everything else. I haven’t added.
-Technical analysis for stocks, oil, and metals. XOP hit 29 support way too quickly. If the the USD rises further, the drillers (who desperately need a weaker dollar) could fall hard as their balance sheets are called into question.
-Bitcoin thoughts. The futures market changed everything. People forget that miners were mining bitcoin below $1,000. If bitcoin continues to fall more miners drop out and the remaining ones can more easily mine. There is no support $3,000 until we get to $1,500. The altcoins seems to be moving to irrelevance.

Links to media discussed – 
Gold COT chart
10-year UST COT chart
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – December 14, 2018
United States Rates & Bonds
Global 10-year sovereign yields
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

 

December 13, 2018 Update – Armstrong fumbles, the alt-media stumbles, and Trump mumbles


-Martin Armstrong covers his tracks. Calls the drop in sovereign yields a loss of confidence, but his big bang theory called for a rise in yields instead.
-My views on current global politics, including the jailing of the Huawei CFO.
All major 10-year sovereign yields have fallen since the US Fed’s change in policy stance. Can’t be a total coincidence.
-My response to yesterday’s Henry Makow article. I received a couple emails asking me to comment.
-I have no hard-wired bias to see a strong dollar. If circumstances change and I anticipate a dollar collapse I will let you know.
-What would the globalists gain from a collapsing dollar? 
-Blockchain not ready to replace money for at least a decade.
-Negative rates discussed.
-Draghi and ECB working with Dovish Fed to coordinate global monetary policy. These private central banks all work together
-Wage earners in the US suffer under the Trump fiscal policies. 60% had no pay raise or lost wages.

December 4th Market Update – Trade tensions strengthen the USD, Fed policy changes weaken it; Observations over the past couple days

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-Recall our conversations about the historically stretched short trades in the Gold and 10-year UST futures contracts. Most did not make money. By default, it pays to take the contra side when sentiment is that lopsided. Sometimes it takes time to be proven right.
-Much of the recent changes in the UST yield curve stem from the ostensible shift in US Fed policy, not any tariff talk. The Fed’s intimation of a more dovish approach has been the catalyst for yields on the longer end to fall. Much of the proposed Fed fund rate increases are already reflected in the short-end. I would not get too caught up in yield inversions and what they mean. When everyone else is studying them they lose their significance.
-The drop is yields should help relieve the emerging market pressures. never underestimate the elites’ ability of keeping things going.
-Commodities got a lift since Wednesday when Powell spoke. Will it fade? I wish silver was performing better.
-The USD has been supported in the wake of the trade talks as much of the excitement has waned. Trump is beginning his tweet storms again, undermining the hope of a trade breakthrough.
-Stocks give back most of the trade talk pop. Weak shorts buy back into the excitement.
-I just say to continue staying in cash.
-Bitcoin investors are beginning to realize they made a mistake. I have been combing the crypto shill websites and social media and their tune is changing slightly. I am spotting contrition and regret. These observations are necessary to help locate a market bottom (we are not there yet).

December 2nd Market Update – The markets provide good opportunities; Stocks, bonds, housing, gold, silver, oil, bitcoin

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-A trendless stock market that should be kept in perspective. The Chinese/US trade talks this weekend were a wash and should not greatly affect early week stock trading, though we could see a small bounce.
-Bond analysis. Mortgage rates look supportive as they are now fully below 5% again.
-Oil and XOP analysis with price points and technical analysis. My thoughts on where we could end up in the near future.
-Why do the oil drillers and miners issue shares after catastrophe strikes? Are they that short-sighted?
-Gold and silver analysis. Silver support levels.
-Housing and real estate. Let’s not get too caught up in analyzing new home sales as these markets are highly managed. Working-class housing is in high demand. I get several phone calls and letters a week from investors asking me to accept all-cash offers. These investors were nowhere to be found early in the decade.
-I am contemplating new real estate purchases. Where I recommend.
-The bitcoin investor consensus is still too bullish, despite the $2,000+ drop.
-Jerome Powell wasn’t as dovish as many think, but there was a relief rally in stocks as the shorts were forced to cover.

December 1st Podcast – The Dunning-Kruger effect in the alt-financial media; “Experts” of low ability mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is

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-An analysis of a financial “expert” on a GCN-sponsored show. People of low ability discuss the exact talking points that Ted Anderson (founder of GCN) wants to hear on his shows. It is full of non sequiturs, stopped-clock predictions, conflicts-of-interest, and analysis by the least skilled (the Dunning-Kruger effect)
-Taking the contra; the most skilled are the most likely to underestimate their knowledge and assume that others are on the same level and that they will grasp ideas easily once told.
-As described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the cognitive bias of illusory superiority results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from an external misperception in people of high ability; that is, “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”
-The most skilled financial analysts and economists are too busy making money to blog on the alt-financial media for free.
-The same recommendations have been dispensed since the early 90’s. These people conveniently overlook their past errors in judgment.
-I cannot use the argument from incredulity bias as a basis for my analysis and predictions, but the promoted financial analysts in the alt-media beg to differ.
-A person who employs the  argument from incredulity bias shows a profound lack of understanding of the subject matter.
-I do not disagree with much of the alt-media analysis of the Federal Reserve. My only contention with the prevailing lot of unskilled alt-financial analysts is my conclusion that the elites have a firm control over the financial system.
-The prospect of collapse and loss of control are just illusions designed for conflict and future change. The future changes will, of course, benefit those at the top and those with the income-generating assets.
-Future changes to the economic system will adversely impact the alt-financial media followers the most.
-Alex Jones is still pumping out his partisan politics. It is worse than ever.
-The financial analysts on GCN only parrot the controlled patriot party line.

Link to podcast discussed –
The Power Hour Nation Monday November 26 2018 Hour 1