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September 20th Update – Ordo ab chao; Anticipate and act; Will gold perk up? Platinum has; the globalist puppets predicted bonds would unwind; mortgage rates near 5%

-Order out of chaos; Those who run the planet create the chaos and conflicts to further their agenda. They operate behind the scenes, so few people see it as being all manufactured and intentional.
-Most following alt-right and alt-financial media do not see the careful planning of the chaos and the left/right conflict. Of course, the top of the alt-right pyramid is completely controlled.
-The compromised churches have brainwashed many to think the end is soon and that the rapture is imminent. Why plan for the future? The ones worried about being left behind will be financially left behind. All by design as any potential opposition will be neutered.
-The Synagogue uses emotion to whip up the contrived sides against one another while the next phase of the NWO agenda pushes forward with little resistance. Few of the people who think they know what is going on are looking in the right direction.
-Despite rising bond yields, a fading dollar, higher inflation, and a bullish COT report, gold is struggling. Don’t look for silver to save the day. However, platinum may be telling us better days are coming.
-Mortgage rates at some banks approaching 5%, the highest in 6-7 years. Eventually, everything the ex-Fed chairs said earlier this year will hit. It takes time and gives the elite time to adjust and anticipate.
-The average household is the wealthiest ever. But those supporting Trump have been left behind, while his adversaries have benefited the most. Remember that Trump was a liberal democrat until he spotted an opportunity to take advantage of an under-served demographic; the naive flag-waving crowd (NIFWICs).
-The globalists want us to be good global citizens, but when it comes to war they want us to be patriots.

Links to articles and media discussed-
China’s ‘social credit’ system is a real-life ‘Black Mirror’ nightmare
Repatriated profits total $465 billion after Trump tax cuts – leaving $2.5 trillion overseas
Mortgage Rates Knocking on 5% Ceiling
U.S. Household Wealth Hit Record $106.9 Trillion Last Quarter
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
Household net worth climbs by $2.19 trillion, driven by stock market, house prices
Five Essential Numbers for Measuring an Economy

September 18th Update; A discussion of listener emails and a review of the long-term agenda

-Perhaps a hidden objective of the implementation of MERS and the defacto nationalization of the MBS industry is to create a national real estate title registration system.
-Government confiscation of real estate is difficult under the current local government title registration system. A national registry would solve many of these issues and make taking your house as easy as taking a bank account.
-10-year US Treasury moves above 3%. the US Fed mouthpieces warned us and they warned the insiders to make hay while the sun shines.
-In a post global-conflict world we would have to pledge allegiance to the NWO and renounce our religious beliefs and long-held admiration of the constitution.
-It is nice to possess the confirmation bias that says the Synagogue of Satan globalists are losing control.. This would imply that we have more control over our lives. The alt-financial media and alt-right personalities try to tell us this very idea, because they get a bigger following. It is depressing to contemplate that this ostensible chaos is by intent and means we have less control over our lives. Unfortunately, I have to conclude that this chaos is just for show. It is convincing, isn’t it?
-The United States will be the Nazi Germany of WWIII
-The media has been conditioning us for decades to accept the inevitability of a global nuclear war. They have conditioned us to think of the constitution and nationalism on par with child molesting, white supremacy, racism, and all sorts of evil.
-The China/American trade tensions go back to its genesis; Kissinger’s visits to China in 1971. This coincided with Nixon’s shutting of the gold window. China was chosen to be the manufacturing base and the US’s military was chosen to be the NWO sledge hammer. Thus, the US dollar has to be the reserve currency. We cannot have one without the other.
-The current tariff war goes back to the 1970s, when the bilateral trade deficits that started under the Carter regime began to balloon. The globalists knew this outcome was inevitable, which was their intention. It goes back almost 50 years.
A visibly drunk Alex Jones was comparing himself and President Trump to Godly figures, while denigrating the left and the Bushes.

Markets Update – Why the management of the yield curve is so important and what the next several years hold; is silver ready to take another leg down?

-Why the suppression of the yield curve is the most important objective for now.
-Further comments on the mortgage market and the US Treasury yield curve
-A quick analysis on the current monetary system and the objective of the elites.
-A top-down look at the lifespan of our fiat monetary system and what the next several years hold
-What we need to stay focused on for our personal financial lives
-Gold and 10-year UST COT analysis
-I think silver is ready to take another leg down this week. Gold COT is bullish, but silver performing poorly.
-The US Fed is way behind its tightening campaign.  The Fed has been slow to unwind its balance sheet. The dovishness continues to support asset prices.

Links to articles discussed-
Gold to Silver Ratio for Last Month
Economic calendar
Federal Funds Rate – 62 Year Historical Chart
10-Year UST COT Chart
10 Year Treasury Rate – 54 Year Historical Chart
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Gold COT Chart

The alt-financial media got it wrong; MERS and the MBS market were designed to help the globalists suppress long-term bond yields

-The concept of the mortgage-backed security (MBS) goes back to the late 1970s with its invention. Lewis Ranieri is often referred to as the “father of the mortgage-backed security.” He rose to become Vice Chairman at Salomon Brothers in the late 80s.
-The MBS got a big boost when it received favorable tax treatment under the 1986 TRA, with the REMIC getting tax-exemption status. By the end of 1986 the MBS market was worth $150 billion.
-The Bloomberg terminals became important MBS price discovery sources around this time.
-Mortgage underwriting was very subjective at the time, with many banks and officers having wide discretion. Moreover, banks generally kept the loans on their books. This created problems with pricing models. In addition, in the late 80s-mid 90s, as interest rates fell MBS prepayments became a problem and MBS prices fell hard. This is counterintuitive as bond prices would normally rise.
-The globalists took note as MBSs perform best in a stable-interest rate environment – the current market dynamic we have experienced over the past decade. The first 30 years of the MBS market proved to be a valuable learning experience for the globalists.
Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, Inc. (MERS) was not established to undermine the concept of ownership title as the alt-financial media claims. MERS was founded by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, and the Mortgage Bankers Association, to help standardize the MBS market and to create a pool of liquidity in the trillions.
-Just like with the US Fed, nobody can seem to figure out who owns MERSCORP, operator of MERS. The judges even make errors when identifying parties in a lawsuit.
-Imagine how high mortgage rates would be if we did not have the federally-backed MBS sector and the MERS registry. Either rates would be low and there would be no credit available or rates would be high and asset prices would have collapsed. We cannot have both, unless there is marxist government control.
-By expanding this pool of mortgage funding liquidity the globalists were able to keep mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be able to. The real estate sector provides the largest asset class of collateral. In order for the globalists to control long-term yields it was necessary for them to control the mortgage market.
-The manufactured crisis of 2008 provided the excuse to nationalize the mortgage market. The GSEs, the mortgage banking industry, the underwriting and appraisal process were all nationalized and federalized. Thus, the process became objective and standardized.
-As debt levels became more onerous, it became necessary for the major markets (e.g. Treasury and residential mortgage) to be actively managed by the government and the US Fed. With respect to the mortgages, the standardized MBS market and its accompanying MERS recordation system provided the needed tools to tame this multi-trillion dollar sector.
-Masonic federal judges were picked to hear the cases against MERS. Notice that virtually all the court proceeding either were in favor of MERS or were undecided.
-This system is now deeply entrenched and is marxist in nature. We go into debt, but the entire market runs by government dictate.
-Welcome to the New World Order

 

The secret societies are running the show and we have no say; thoughts on the US dollar and REITs

Watch VP Pence (Mr. Christian conservative) blatantly give the masonic handshake during a Trump news conference.
-Discussion of 9/12 Joel Skousen interview with Jeff Rense. (right mouse link to download interview)
-All parties in the political spectrum, even the heads of the patriot movement, are part of the Synagogue of Satan. They wouldn’t be there unless they gave their secret oath.
-I never had any illusions about Trump looking out for us. There are many people who should have known better and are surprised that Trump hasn’t lived up to any of his promises.
-The secret societies control Australia;
Question; why would Australia’s military conduct joint military war games with China?
Answer; to give China much needed intelligence and military strategy. The globalists want China to strike the west and want Australia to fold in the upcoming global conflict.
-Separate yourself from a world that is populated with virtue signalers.
-I do not recommend owning residential REITs, but understand why. Dividend yields are approaching that of US Treasuries. Single-family REITs yield about 1.6%. We have the management of the yield curve by the US Treasury and GSEs to thank.
-The managers of the REITs are the only ones making a lot of money from them.
-I still believe US housing provides much better yields and cap rates. One rental property can provide the owner a wealth of tax benefits and income offsets, higher appreciation potential, and better payouts than any REIT.
-Even REITs like SKT have poor payouts when their stressed portfolio is considered. Its 5.9% yield cannot overcome the continual loss of NAV. I prefer PSA as the debt slaves in the US have a lot of useless junk to store.
-The petrodollar myth; As we predicted, the US has just become the world’s largest oil producer. If Texas were a nation it would be the 3rd largest producer of oil. 
-The oil output of the US will continue to expand and will continue to grow faster than Russia.
-The globalists are expanding the oil extraction technology and output potential of the US as war approaches.

Link to REIT data discussed-
REIT Investment Performance by Property Sector and Subsector

Important update – How to survive the New World Order and the end times

-The 1st & 2nd Amendments were constitutional issues, but now they have been turned into a left/right debate
-Eventually, the 4th & 5th Amendments will be politicized as well. This is done by design.
-Political correctness has become a false left/right issue
-President Trump and his group of tag-alongs (e.g. Alex Jones, PJW, Jerome Corsi, Milo Yiannopoulos, Mike Cernovich) have politicized the constitution.
-The alt-financial media was created to impoverish those who pose a threat to the NWO.
-What we need to do to survive the next decade.
-Other than physical gold, real estate will provide the best protection against seizure in the end times. This is why I invest in it. It still provides owners with common law remedy in many respects. This will not change much as RE provides the largest pool of collateral to the NWO.
-How we need to view the world and what we need to accomplish to succeed financially and morally.
-These are exciting times and are not meant to make us fearful. We need to be self-sovereign and self-governing.
-Gold trade the most lopsided in history. Every week is more unprecedented. Something will break (I still say to the upside)
-The Feds are managing the treasury yield curve and are using the GSEs to manage mortgage rates, and by extension, all interest rates.
-IMF Chief economist says the US Fed can buy everything not nailed down during the next recession.
-This can continue forever, or until the Synagogue of Satan, working through their private central banks own it all or decide otherwise.

Links to articles discussed-
Fed should buy stocks if there is another steep recession, former IMF economist says
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – September 7, 2018
10-Year UST COT Chart

Focus on the big picture; opportunity knocks for long-term investors

-US economic data continue to point to an OK domestic economy. Inflation is running much higher than what the Fed is saying. Wage growth is continuing to disappoint (the workers). Today’s data reaffirms this.
-The Fed will have to eventually raise rates higher and faster. We were warned early his year and the process could take 2-3 years.
-The dollar is well-supported as the world attempts to deleverage out of dollars (it won’t be able)
-Silver is telling us something. Ag is an industrial metal and its weakness is saying the global economy is not as robust as the MSM shills are saying
-Gold holding up as the COT is still stretched
-The US stock market is a red herring as the developing nations are the first ones to get hit in any Fed tightening campaign. Don’t be involved in the collateral damage.
-We have good opportunities coming up for those with cash, low debt, and unencumbered assets. Credit will continue to tighten. The Fed does not want to be blamed, so a slow approach can help to alleviate its ostensible culpability.
-Turkey begins constructing site for Russian missile system — despite US warnings
-The charts and market action don’t lie; further crypto weakness is coming. Etherium’s weakness is especially ominous.
-Trump is part of the set up. The ongoing global economic weakness is necessary to bring about WWIII. That won’t be for at least several more years
-Cash is king – STILL. There will come a time when we will wish we had it.

Links to articles and media discussed-
Analyst who called February correction says the Fed will trigger a bear market with two more hikes
Federal Funds Rate – 62 Year Historical Chart
Economic calendar
Turkey begins constructing site for Russian missile system — despite US warnings

Weekend Update – Welcome to the NWO; Everyone’s cost of capital is still too low; The world is one big labor pool

-Large Specs cover 10-year treasury shorts in record fashion (170,000 contracts). Yields are still suppressed here below 3%. Despite consumer and corporate optimism long yields are still low.
-Optimism is so high (highest since 1999), because cost of capital is so low. Money is cheap.
-Residential real estate’s cost of capital, based on demand, is still low. Mortgage rates should be 6-7%
-Gold commentary
-More articles and commentary on wage growth drag
-Welcome to the NWO; open borders include free movement of labor as well as free movement of capital inputs.
-The whole world is one big labor pool
-The tariffs hurt the very people who support them and support Trump. Tariffs don’t work in the New World Order
-Trade deficits are widening, despite higher tariffs.

Links to articles and media discussed-
US dollar index chart
Speculative U.S. 10-year T-note net shorts fall from record high -CFTC
The rampaging U.S. economy is pushing unemployment to lowest level since 1960s
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 31, 2018
Gold COT Chart
2018 Economic Calendar
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
10-Year UST COT Chart
10 Year Treasury Rate – 54 Year Historical Chart
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States

August 30, 2018 – The choice has been made; The US Treasury and Fed are working to keep the US Government in business

-Discussing the US treasury market under traditional circumstances is meaningless when the US Treasury and US Fed are working to keep a lid on the 10-year yield.
-Mainstream media has it wrong; The talking head shills on CNBC cannot rationally discuss what is going on with US treasuries if they refuse to comprehend the conspiracy for the one-world financial dictatorship.
-The alt-financial media has it wrong; Larry Kudlow must be working with the US Treasury to keep a lid on yields. The compression of the 2-yr and 10-yr spread is manufactured and has lost its meaning in being an indicator of future economic weakness.
-The US Fed cannot raise rates higher while the US Treasury is taking the contra-side in the futures market. The Large spec short position continues to grow, while the large commercials (working for government) are going record long. If I owned a large portfolio of Treasuries I would be shorting the futures as well.
-Inflation is continuing to pick up and the domestic economic data looks fine, yet the US Fed continues its extremely dovish policy. However, the Treasury is keeping the Fed in a straitjacket.
-Despite all the tariff talk, trade data still point to widening deficits (that’s because the US consumer keeps spending)
-The asset bubbles and higher prices in stocks and real estate can continue as long as the US 10-year can stay at these depressed levels.
-Bitcoin’s price rise may only provide the needed potential energy to allow it to fall further. The alt-coins could not get above weekly channel resistance. Recall that bitcoin cash was a free coin handed out last year. The original owner cost basis is $0.

Links to media and charts –
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

August 28, 2018 Update – Is Donald Trump being set up? How to spot a conflict of interest

-How to spot the signs that someone is not who he says he is
-Why is getting loans on collateralized income-generating investments much more difficult than borrowing for personal consumption? Why is it easier getting a credit card, student loans, and car loans than getting a line of credit for rental properties?
-Guess the type of person who gets the $500mm and $1 billion loans for large real estate and business purchases?
-Many people would have gone to jail or been sued into personal bankruptcy for many of the frauds and misrepresentations (e.g. Trump University, bankrupting his casinos) Trump has pulled off over his career.
-An analysis of  Joel Skousen and his potential for conflict of interest.
-I don’t have to go to Infowars.com to read up on Alex Jones. I can read the dozens of fresh MSM articles that promote him. Recall that negative press is good, because it piques the interest of a sizable minority of the population.
-The most effective way for the “deep state” to keep AJs ideas from spreading is to not mention him at all. He should be a persona non grata in the MSM. But the opposite has occurred; AJs poison is spread far and wide. Another symptom of controlled opposition.

 

August 26th Update – I agree with you, we are in an “everything bubble”

-An analysis of a Forbes Magazine article titled, U.S. Household Wealth Is Experiencing An Unsustainable Bubble
-Anecdotally speaking, when school psychologists and government workers are worth over a million we know that this asset inflation cannot last forever.

US Fed and Federal fiscal and tax policies are always to blame

-Complaining about these circumstances won’t help.
-The only measure that has become less relevant over time is the U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, as US-based corporations have expanded further into international markets.

Remember, the US Fed is just carrying out orders
Bubbles can last much longer than we can remain solvent

-I can do nothing to change this. However, we can deleverage our personal balance sheets and spend less than we earn. We have much more control over our circumstances than we think.
-Think long and hard about taking on debt to expand a business. Let’s not look at current economic data as the deciding factor. Capitalization rates on everything are lower. Even retail stores and franchise businesses have expanded mightily during this boom as their cost of capital was low.
-The time to take on debt is during the busts cycles. Assets are cheaper.
-Since it takes a lot of knowledge to be good real estate investor, I always suggest getting involved immediately. But, keep the above charts in mind when we make investment decisions. Do the math first.
-We have to take responsibility for our actions. During the last real estate boom/bust cycle, nobody held a gun to the foreclosed borrower’s head at the closing table when they signed the closing and mortgage docs.
-We can be ready when the next bust comes. We can pare down debt when everyone is accumulating it.

Market and Investment Update – Your perception is your reality; The secret to long-term investing success

-We all have confirmation biases. How we deal with them is the difference between success and failure.
-Much of the stuff we hear in the alt-media is disinfo conjured up by expert psychologists in DARPA and Arlington, VA. Much of the stuff we hear on MSM is developed by the same people.
-I don’t listen to the popular alt-media shills anymore. If I need to find anything out about Alex Jones, I can read the dozens of MSM articles and news segments that come out daily about him. He’s there to blow up, embarrass, and impoverish the patriot movement.
-A review of US Fed policy changes
-A review of the gold, silver, UST, stocks and other asset markets
-High end real estate continues to suffer. Working-class properties are still the best investments out there.
-Higher rates will cause distress around the globe and could lead to painful market adjustments. We can spot them if we stay objective
-Opportunity cost
-A small but noticeable numbers of homeowners who live in high-cost, high-tax states such as New York and California appear to be fleeing to lower-tax markets. Some communities in Florida, Nevada and Washington are seeing unusually large price jumps in sales of upper bracket homes. Buyers aren’t reticent about their reasons either: Congress’ $10,000 cap on deductions of state and local property and incomes taxes.

Links to articles and media discussed-
U.S. Business-Equipment Orders Climb by More Than Forecast
Durables Goods Orders Drop Most In Six Months As US Slowdown Accelerates
It’s Getting Harder to Pump Up Prices in Cryptocurrency Markets
Hedge Funds Kept Betting Against Gold Even as Prices Began Rally
Durable-goods orders fall for 3rd time in 4 months, but businesses boost investment
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 24, 2018
US dollar index chart
10-Year UST COT Chart
Gold COT Chart
gold/platinum ratio chart
10-Year UST Price and COT Chart
Gold Price and COT Chart
Sellers’ price-cutting trend could be good news for buyers

Market Update – The price and market action tell everything; Stay objective and free of cognitive bias; real estate is always a good thing, but be flexible

The stories of woe and the market action in the crypto market were identical to the situation with the Nasdaq in late 2000, the gold and silver markets in late 2013, and real estate in 2010. The crypto shills are at least disingenuous and are full of conflicts of interest. Ronnie Moas has an expensive crypto service, but he lies to his subscribers and says we cannot determine the markets by looking at charts and market action. He is shilling to the bitter end while his subscribers cry the blues.

-We should appreciate the Ronnie Moas shilling as trading is a zero-sum game. So, if we make 100k in cryptos his subscribers lose 100k.
-Stop using the social media platforms to get news and trading ideas. They are only echo chambers that reaffirm preexisting confirmation biases.
-80% of futures traders lose money. Only 10% of traders make money. Only trade when we can locate opportune instances. The COT reports can help us, especially when they reveal overstretched markets.
-Private Equity firms are still getting involved in real estate. Cerburus Capital is raising $500mm to purchase single-family rental homes.
-Be flexible with real estate investment. If a person is interested in real estate and he or she lives in a high-priced market (e.g. Toronto, San Francisco) look outside the area. I know of one Los Angeles investor who buys in Barstow and Apple Valley. I know of another LA resident who concentrates in Albuquerque.
-If you decide to invest outside your area, just develop a relationship with a Realtor in the target area who knows exactly what you are looking for. They can manage your real estate portfolio, too.
-I would rather own 4-5 cash cow single-family properties than own a 7-11 franchise. Imagine dealing with all those customers and the hours are endless.
-The FOMC minutes come out Wednesday. Jerome Powell speaks Friday morning at Jackson Hole. With Trump and his demagoguery of criticizing the Fed, we may get some dovish hints. The US Treasury is already cornering the 10-year UST futures market. And the Large Commercials work with the Fed.
-Trading is a mental game. Develop a style that works with you. Trading services are usually a waste of money. There are thousands of way to trade successfully. Our flaws and cognitive biases are our worst enemies.

Market Update – The gold bugs should be very excited. If there is any whiff of Fed dovishness these markets could explode

Soft Commodities Hit Record Low With More Losses Seen for Sugar. The stronger USD is killing the prices of the softs and trops with most at decade lows. The economies of the emerging markets are disintegrating as the US Fed has continued to tighten. If the Fed was only concerned about the domestic economy, it should be even tighter.
-The battle rages in the 10-year UST futures market. According to the latest COT report, it is the most oversold in history. The large specs added 100k new shorts to their already massively oversized net short position. The Large commercials are taking the other side and I have to assume it is official intervention.
Fed May End Taper This Year Amid Regime Rethink. If the USFed even hints at a taper pause or provides any dovish tone, the overstretched markets may explode. According to the latest COT reports, the 10-year UST and gold are the most oversold in history.
-If the US Treasury is demanding the 10-year yield remain low, the USFed may have to rethink its fed fund rate increase strategy. Only 24 bps separate the 2-year and 10-year USTs
-For the first time I can remember the Large Commercials have actually net long gold exposure. The Large Specs are outright short for the first time that I know of, and when futures options are included the large specs. net short position is sizable and the Large Commercials are net long.
-I believe we could be setting ourselves up for a massive short squeeze in the gold, platinum, silver, and the 10-year UST markets. If the markets think the Fed could rethink its strategy in any way (even small), gold could easily pop $100 off the most recent low in a few days.
-As the dollar strengthens, USD-denominated assets will be well-bid. I think US real estate is cheap compared to the rest of the world’s developed and developing markets, particularly Asia. I base this primarily on cash flow numbers and price to household income levels.
-If the 10-year UST yield can remain below 3% or so, the only place to go in the US will be stocks and real estate.

Australia and Canada may have debt ratio problems, but the US looks very reaosonable

-Australian and Canadian household debt/GDP and personal income are at historic extremes. I guess that is because foreign money has bid up their real estate.

With low interest rates, the debt service ratios remain subdued. Currently, the US has the lowest rate this of century. More room to add debt.

-The current US household debt service ratio is the lowest it’s been this century. The US delevered a lot after 2008 as much of the debt was worked through and/or written off.
Jim Cramer with somber news for bitcoin. Both we and Cramer were correct in estimating that the bitcoin futures market would cause prices to fall. He is out this week saying equilibrium could be as low as $800-1,000. As usual, the crypto shills are whistling past the graveyard by attacking Cramer for his opinion. I personally think it’s going lower, but Cramer’s estimate is a bit harsh.
-Bitcoin keeps putting in bearish wedge after bearish wedge and I think 6,000 will give way soon to a price eventually as low as $4,700. Notice the trading volume is still high; thus I don’t see it it turning higher any time soon. But, I wouldn’t short a market that already has suffered. Never fight a wounded animal as it may surprise us in the short-term.

Links to articles and media discussed –
What Can Kill The S&P; What Can Save EMs; Just Two Things
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
THE ECONOMICS OF H1 2018 IN CHARTS
Higher interest rates to hit younger, middle-income households, federal analysis reveals (Canada)
Gold COT data table
Gold COT Chart
Gold Price and COT Chart
United States Disposable Personal Income
10-Year UST Price and COT Chart
10-Year UST COT Data Chart
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

 

Market update – Let’s not lose perspective as the globalist mouthpieces warned us

August 15, 2018 Update –Right mouse click here to download

US Fed funds rates over the past 60 years. It is not difficult to anticipate what is next. Cash will be king for the next couple years.

-As the world attempts to deleverage, the US dollar will rise and that will put pressure on the emerging markets. This is the first casualty of a tightening US Fed policy.
-What else can we expect? Bernanke, Yellen, and Greenspan warned us in late January-early February.
-The central banks gave us the most accommodative policy in history for almost eight years and still has a relatively loose policy.
-The US Fed cannot raise faster as it battles the shorts on the 10-year and keeps an eye on the rising dollar.
-The US domestic economy is doing well when compared to the rest of the world. Domestic monetary policy objectives conflict with international objectives.
-My cash recommendation is still in effect. pay down higher rate loans. Build up your collateral position for the next bust.
-Look at the above chart; the elites know what is coming and are positioning themselves accordingly. We need to do the same.
-Don’t fall victim of the social proof tendency (doing and thinking what everyone else in the alt-financial media is discussing).
-So what if there is a currency reset? It is still incumbent on us to be as liquid as possible.

Market Update – Altcoins get destroyed as Facebook may enter scene, gold and platinum on sale, global mouthpieces warned us about tighter Fed money policy

August 13, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download

-The head of Facebook’s blockchain division resigned from Coinbase’s board last Friday. It has been straight down for the alt-coins as many will go away when FB comes out with their crypto. BTC still has a place. The $6,000 BTC level will eventually give way as the bulls are furiously defending that Maginot Line.
-Pace of technological advancement in the crypto sphere is too slow and in order to get the blockchain as an underpinning of a future monetary system, a centralized management scheme needs to be implemented – and will be. Decisions will be made much more quickly, rather than by consensus of coin miners. They will be made unilaterally, much to the chagrin of the libertarians and those who lost their life saving buying into the crypto scam.
-Gold and platinum on sale and I added to physical at $1,200 and $800.
-Oil came back after a brief hard selloff. I added to a couple oversold P&Es
-It is the interest of National Security for the US to produce as much oil as possible domestically
-The problems in the emerging markets are to be expected as the tighter US Fed policy is a direct cause. The globalist mouthpieces warned us of impending hard unwinding. Bernanke, Greenspan, and Yellen all told us early this year that things could become unglued. The EMs are always the first to get hit.
-Analysis of Turkey’s situation. Just a corrupt and inefficient government falling victim to the Fed unwind. Perhaps Erdogan should listen to the globalist mouthpieces.
-Erdogan and Trump following script to drive a wedge between secular Turkey and the US and drive it into the arms of the Soviet/Sino alliance. I think of Ezekiel 38-39.
-The USFed needs to raise rates, but it must keep the Fed funds rate low as it battles the shorts on the long-end of the yield curve. The Fed is keeping accommodative policy not because they think the economy is weak, but because they cannot tell us they are working with the US Treasury in the futures market to keep the 10-year yield below 3%.
-Armstrong screaming we need a currency reset. Do we? You can pay $10,000/yr for his services. He has a whole lot of fear to sell. Even if we get a “currency reset” or whatever garbage he is proposing, what does that mean? We had one in 1944 and in 1985 and the average guy on the street saw barely a thing.

Links to articles discussed-
Why Can’t Turkey Stop Its Economic Nose-Dive?

Important Markets Update – Trading and investing recommendations. The real globalists are working well with Trump.

August 11, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download

Assets discussed: Gold, platinum, oil, stocks, bonds, real estate, oil P&Es, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar.
-Discussion of Barron’s article, New Era for Markets is Here. And It’s Not Just Because of Trump
-Trump is very useful to the globalists. The manufactured alt-right’s concept of who the globalists are is completely misguided as Trump has been molded to prepare the nations for eventual conflict. He is helping the elites to consolidate their power and wealth.
-I do not see any collapses anywhere. Why have one? There is no need of one. Only the fear of collapse allows the agenda to move forward. Only the fear of another 9/11 allows the tyranny to grow.
-My somber real estate analysis should not preclude an investor with a long-term time horizon from getting involved.
-My goal is to have the listener become self-sufficient financially (like I already am). If the listener is polluted by collapse rhetoric he or she will be paralyzed by learned helplessness.
-The Chinese are not forcing a yuan devaluation. National security issues, inefficient monetary policy, and macroeconomics are taking care of that.
-The dollar is well supported here. The petrodollar concept is a myth. The US economy performing well compared to other advanced nations. Short-term rates need to rise in the US, unlike in other areas of the globe. With the US the world’s top energy producer, why would the dollar suffer?
-Just because someone is banned from the private social media platforms doesn’t mean free speech is under peril. You and I are free to say anything we want as long as we do not threaten anyone.
-My views are not popular, yet I make money – enough to survive and prosper without any help or benefit. If I were wrong I would be losing money.  The advice from the alt-financial writers punches the one-way ticket to perpetual poverty. If they are wrong repeatedly, why pay attention to them? I know, it satisfies your confirmation bias.

Links to articles and charts discussed-
Important Barron’s article – New Era for Markets is Here. And It’s Not Just Because of Trump
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 10, 2018
10-Year UST Price and COT Chart
Gold COT Chart
10-Year UST COT Chart
gold/platinum ratio chart

Political Update – Government intervention distorts the markets; is the Trump regime ready to confiscate foreign real estate?

August 9, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download

-History has shown that modifications to the tax codes and changes in government policy tend to impact real estate and other asset markets more profoundly than changes in economic conditions, including movements in long-term mortgage rates. Why is this? Investors always underestimate how the government can distort the supply/demand curve.
-The Trump administration, as part of a crackdown on certain US investments made by Chinese companies, is set to snatch a majority stake in Manhattan’s 850 Third Ave.
-This is the first move by the Trump White House under CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investors in the United States – to seize foreign real estate interests.
-With respect to investing there is absolutely no difference in the “left” and the “right.” In fact, with most issues, there is no difference. Both sides use government when it suits their interests.
-Donald Trump was elected while beholden to Chinese and German lenders, in clear violation of the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause.

Links to articles discussed –
Trump administration to seize stake in Chinese-owned building
What Is the Emoluments Clause?

Trading Update – Gold, Silver, Platinum, 10-year UST, Cryptocurrencies

August 8, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download

-Trading and purchase updates and recommendations for gold, silver, and platinum
-Is the 10-year UST yield about to explode? The COT and trading action say otherwise
-The cryptocurrency market continues to plumb new depths. Looking at the sad alt-coin action we are in for a world of hurt
-There is a special place reserved in hell for people like Charlie Lee of litecoin. He realized untold profits on the backs of his followers. If you are following people like Charlie Lee you need to realign your thinking. Add him to the trash heap of alt-financial writers and copywriters spreading impending catastrophe.

Links to media discussed –
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 3, 2018
Gold COT Chart
Platinum COT Chart
10-Year UST COT Chart

Financial Update – The New World Order; The necessary consolidation of wealth and power takes decades

August 6, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download

  • The consolidation of wealth and power in the stock market has been immense and has taken decades;
    -In 1975, there were 8,000 publicly-traded companies. In 2015, there were less than 3,700.
    -In 2015-dollars, 61.5% of these companies in 1975 had assets below $100mm. In 2015, 22.6% had assets below $100mm.
    -In 2015, the 200 largest companies, by earnings profits, generated ALL the stock market earnings profits. All the other companies lost money in aggregate. Earnings and power have been consolidated into a tight group of companies.
  • This consolidation of power and wealth is a prerequisite to promulgating any new system. It makes any new system much easier to implement as you and I will have no say. Government power has been transferred to the national level.
  • Currency wars? The problems with the yuan have more to do with Macroeconomics 101 than a currency war. The manufactured tariffs situation will lead the nations into the direction of an appearance of a currency war without having to be proactive in causing it.
  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the controlled mainstream shill that GATA, the gold bugs, and collapse-lovers embrace is out talking about the economic wars that China is proactively waging.
  • A listener of the podcast is predicting that bitcoin may have put in its all-time high last December. I do not disagree. The crypto shills all predicted that the bitcoin futures market was going to be a big booster to the crypto sector. We can see that bitcoin put in its all-time high almost to the day of the futures market opening. The only coin I guarantee has a future is bitcoin.
  • Fallacy of opposition – Alex Jones is fighting a manufactured confrontation against his stated enemies, who put him in his position in the first place. He has made the patriots look like buffoons and is throwing his followers under the bus. He has politicized basic constitutional rights, such as the first and second amendments. Bill Cooper was assassinated and AJ was installed in his place. Both talk down the Bible however, while claiming to be Jesus-men.
  • Jamie Dimon was out this past weekend talking down US Treasuries; he is predicting a 5%-yielding 10-year Treasury. We need to keep our powder dry for the next cycle and destruction in wealth.
  • Gold is a good inflation indicator IN THE LONG-TERM. Gold has gained 7.3% per year since 1968, but its ascent is managed to make it look like a speculative commodity.

Links to articles discussed-
The Stock Market Is Shrinking. That’s a Problem for Everyone.
Apple drops Infowars from podcast directory
Jamie Dimon Warns of 5% Treasury Yields
China Is Now Left With Just Three Options, And They Are All Equally Bad
‘We’re at economic war ‘: China is playing with fire in Trump battle

 

It’s clear the globalists want real estate to fall. The Fed needs to raise rates, but can’t

August 1, 2018 Markets update Right mouse click here to download

-The full court press in the MSM to denigrate real estate is in high gear. Recall Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke earlier this year talking down commercial real estate.
-These trends take time. Don’t be impatient for immediate Schadenfreude.
-The globalists gain nothing by having a collapse right now; the central banks will get the blame.
-Manufactured nationalism will get the blame for any financial market problems, but we still have a few years left for that to simmer to a boil. That will make a great excuse for war, but the primary nations are not ready.
-We still have not seen currency wars; there has been a lot of hyperbole, but we are not yet there.
-Does there need to be a collapse to get the NWO fully in place? I think only the fear of a collapse will get us there. The globalists will remind us of a possible 2008 scenario and the the world will agree to whatever is proposed – even the mark.
-As long as investors are trying to unwind debt obligations the USD will remain supported. Buy it on dips.
-Corporations and governments are backing away from the hype of blockchain, as the reality sets in that it is still too primitive a technology.
-If the USD remains firm, gold will struggle. Own gold if you live in a nation with poor monetary policies. Own it as unencumbered net worth.
-As long as stocks like AAPL respond to good earnings stocks will remain elevated here.
-Stocks look good as there is no where else to go with money. As long as there are major central banks buying back sovereign debt the yield curve will remain flat.
-If things fall apart here the USFed can always crank up another program.

Important Real Estate and Housing Update – A background to the future

July 30th Update – Right mouse click here to download

-Do a Google news search of “housing market” and every story on the first page paints a picture of doom. MSM is pointing us in a certain direction. The market is turning now.
-Sales are dropping off as predicted and it is not because sellers are few. Supply will emerge as investors begin to unwind. The percentage of units owned by investors will always be greater than reported.
-Despite what many in the alt-financial media proclaim, money is hard to come by. Many of my properties can no longer be used as collateral. Hard-money lenders are becoming much more discerning. What was collateral 2-3 years ago can no longer be used.
-Higher interest rates do not necessarily mean lower prices. We must analyze why rates are rising in the first place. Rates rose profoundly in the late 70’s yet prices still rose.
-Tax policies profoundly impact real estate prices.
1986 Tax Reform Act
1997 Taxpayer Relief Act
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
-The latest round of tax changes is beginning to put a dent in higher-priced, owner-occupied housing. This will trickle down to working class areas. It already has begun.
-The 1997 Taxpayer Relief Act created a huge economic sector (home improvement and residential RE speculation). Home Depot would only be a mid-sized retailer, not a Dow Blue-Chip, but the cap gain exclusions created a huge economic sector that did not exist prior. Homeowners have become home-flippers, because of the cap-gains exclusions.
-The Bush Sr. Cabal (e.g. Carlyle Group and Blackstone) made billions buying up real estate in the wake of the TRA of 1986 inspired bust. It almost brought down Prudential Securities.
-Next downturn could be more like the late 80’s-early 90s, than last decade. But, the opportunities will flesh out and will be many.
-Real Estate management takes a lot of knowledge and since time is our most precious commodity it is always a good time to begin investing in real estate. However, now is not the time to invest in a big way. Learn from hands-on experience and when the cycle turns we must be ready. Get your feet wet now.
-I have not bought a new property since Spring 2016. I was buying in 2011-2015. I had two fallouts in the past year as I decided the market dynamics were changing. Many new investors are currently bidding up investment properties. This was just like in 2005.