6/23 Market Update – Why the Libra will succeed; Higher house prices coming; Basing equities ready to move; Gold has firepower; Cryptos exploded as we predicted last week with more to come.
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-The major stock averages have been basing for 18 months with a bullish tilt. Unless we get world war, the next breakout will be higher. S&P 3,000 is a done deal with a 28,500 year-end Dow target. How about Dow 30k in the intermediate term?
-I certainly do not support open borders, as that is a defacto loss of national sovereignty. But I would be misguided not to plan for this new world order plan. Despite the overwhelmingly bearish proclamations to the contrary, I predict much higher housing costs and home prices in the intermediate future. Lower mortgage rates will greatly enhance affordability at each price point, while the uncontrolled immigration is laying the working class lifestyle to waste. The massive deficit spending required to support these people will continue to levitate asset prices higher.
-The U.S. population has grown by 30 million since the 2008 recession, more than the entire population of Australia. I see a Soylent Green scenario where overcrowding will be of epic proportions. The recent immigrants come from 3rd world nations, are not encouraged to learn English, and have no problem remaining lower class. Working class housing will benefit more than any other segment.
-The least risky way to profit in cryptos is to buy the alt-currency-equivalents after a move up in BTC. Bitcoin always leads the way (e.g. eth, dash, xmr, zec, bch, ltc, xrp, xlm, bsv, etc.)
-Bond yields continue to fall as predicted; laying the strong groundwork for my investment theses. There is 13 trillion in negative-yielding global debt and that is just a taste of what’s to come.
-Despite gold’s explosive take out of 1,362, there is still some firepower left as the COT report is not as stretched as in the Summer 2016. I am a buyer of dips.
-UST 10-year briefly fell below 2.00% as bonds prices have exploded higher. More to come eventually.
-Facebook Libra is the future of money and will work well within the central bank structure. Governments and central banks see asset-backed cryptos and private money as another way for the average person to buy sovereign debt (though the currency user won’t know this). There will be no runs on the banks as the central banks could easily support any sanctioned coins.
-Libra privacy will never be a problem as Facebook’s current privacy woes have done little to impede its explosive user growth. Most users will freely embrace Libra like they embrace PayPal and debit cards.
June 15th Market Update – Trading most assets from the long side; Housing stabilizing and moving higher; Explosive set up for BTC?
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Commentary as of June 15; 4:00 pm
-Dow and S&P futures holding above 50-day mva. Nasdaq just below the 50 day mva. The only yellow light continues to be the struggling Dow Transports.
–The ECB is having a lot of problems with low inflation. This will support the USD and help to accelerate the worldwide dovish monetary policy timeline.
-Housing is showing renewed strength around the world. This will undermine affordability even more. I have to believe that there will be some higher-than-expected growth as low rates will provide some substantial firepower to home values.
-Since Amazon announced plans to build HQ2 in Northern Virginia, the median home price in Arlington has soared 17.3% to $750,000 in April, up from $640,000 in November 2018, when HQ2 was announced, according to Realtor.com. The national median list price increased 5.5%, or $17,000, over the same time frame.
Amazon donates $3 million to Virginia homeless groups as HQ2 pushes home prices up 17%
Why Americans should get into the housing market now
Housing market rebounded in May from record lows earlier in the year, CREA says
Canada Housing Market Begins to Shake Off Slump – WSJ
-Bitcoin and the altcoins look to be setting up for an explosive upside
Overcoming the alt-financial non sequiturs to get ahead; Some important advice
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-An analysis of a CNBC article about how more Americans are falling further behind. The mainstream economists are at a loss for words, while the alt-financial gurus say the monetary system that is the cause is about to collapse.
-Alt-financial non-sequitur; The alt-media analysts say the system was designed 100 years ago to level the wealth around the world and that the 1st-world nations will be knocked down to 2nd world status. Now that it is happening, they are all claiming that it can’t continue and that it’s about to blow up (alt-media from the early 1990’s proclaimed this same inconsistency). The alt-media personalities are either working for other people or actually believe their advice. Either way they were the system’s victims.
-How can a so-called expert in the alt-financial media claim to know so much about the monetary system, yet lose his shirt and get involved in losing investments?
-Some timely advice on how to get ahead, regardless of talent level.
-Imagine how much money some of Trump’s buddies must make if they know he will send out bearish or bullish tweets over a weekend. For instance, if I knew on a Friday that Trump was going to bash China over the weekend, I would have sold off dozens of S&P emini’s prior to market close. This stuff goes on all the time.
-Never listen to anyone in the business media. Ray Dalio has business to gain in China, so he gushes all over the ChiCom government. Jeff Gundlach tells the world he is long gold, so he can shill it while he dumps his profitable position. Cramer talks stocks that his buddies want him to shill. Gold shills promote collapse, so they sell you gold at high markups. They have been long gold all decade and are desperately trying to get something going.
June 9th Market Update – Central banks and tariffs; Stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin; A new Facebook cryptocurrency; answering email questions
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Commentary as of 2:30 pm, June 9th.
-Mexico trade situation taken care of late Friday after markets close. Relief rally tonight?
-Dovish Fed policy designed to help out the other central banks and it’s working out well. Until the recent Fed policy jawboning becomes more clearly defined, stock markets could be in a holding pattern.
-S&P futures just barely retakes 50-day mva. Dow and Nasdaq both lagging. Anti-trust concerns holding back large tech.
-Euro futures could rise another penny to 50-week mva, but upside is limited as ECB desperately needs to embark on more unconventional policy.
-Russell 2000 and trannies further lagging and that gives me pause.
-Bonds need to rest after a great run and I doubt the 10-year UST will take out 2.00% immediately. I see the short-term Mexican trade solution pushing up yields short-term as fears of catastrophe wane. This does not change the longer-term picture. A powerful daily bullish pennant flag has been established, but we need to see more concise language from the Fed to trigger further upside in bond futures.
-I am no longer bullish on gold and would be a seller of rallies. We could touch 1362, but that has been the resistance since mid-2013. The latest COT report shows an extremely stretched condition in just two weeks as many traders fear Armageddon. An almost 70k contract surge in large spec longs last week (as of Tuesday’s close), and most likely additional increase since, has reduced gold’s firepower tremendously. Mexico solution and trader uncertainty on how the Fed will proceed could cap rallies near-term.
-Facebook introducing a new crypto. I am concerned the alts as well as BTC could suffer short-term (already have). You and I may think that FB is Satan incarnate, but more than one-third of adult humanity will gladly go along with it. Many alts could become superfluous? A test of mid 6,000s on BTC not out of the question. It needs to retake 8200 immediately.
-Could FB crypto be the answer to what the future looks like?
-Why I do not run a traditional business nor work for someone.
-Real estate opportunities come about more than we think.
June 6th Market Update – A response to some emails and a warning to those who take the advice of the alt-financial media
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-A response to a few emails
-A warning to the alt-financial followers. A warning to the alt-financial “experts”
-Some macro predictions
-Why bring out a new monetary system when the current one represents little of what the system of 50 years ago looked like? The elites already brought it out into full view.
-The futurists of 80-150 years ago explained how the future economy would operate. Wake up, we are here. This is the end time system. It will just slowly transform into the finished product. No need for collapses.
-For at least 50% of the population in the Western nations, the monetary system has effectively collapsed… for them.
-For the majority of humanity, this system suits them fine as their standards of living have risen. I see China, India, SE Asia, all doing better under this NWO. All the former 1st world nations are moving toward second nation status. The futurists discussed this leveling process and most of their agenda from 100 years ago has been accomplished, while the “unwashed” washed screamed collapse.
-What better way for the elites to achieve their goal, but by having their critics continually underestimating them.
-The Art of War is just a bunch of empty platitudes to most in the alt-media, because these so-called “washed” people, who can recite entire passages of that book, were never able to comprehend their adversary’s power, while constantly underestimating their enemy’s abilities. They already lost and still think their enemy is about to fold.
June 2nd Market Update – Beware of more dovish Fed policy. Trump theater designed for more rate cuts
To download the podcast – June 2, 2019 Update
-Bond and stock analysis.
-Market predictions, given the chart and market action.
-2.1% UST 10-year getting close. Predicting interest rate movements is easy when one knows the conspiracy for the global financial dictatorship and can properly interpret central banks actions.
-Beware of Fed emergency actions. Don’t fall in love with the downside
-Trump’s actions provide cover for the U.S. Fed to begin cutting the Fed funds rate. I see the patterns and make connections and have to believe that Trump is doing this to make certain the Fed acts. The Fed is happy and its owners probably think Trump is doing a fine job forwarding the NWO agenda.
-Trump’s opponents seem to be making sure he gets reelected.
-Gold market analysis
-Until further notice, I am trading BTC, ETH, LTC, and the the other “currency” alts from the long side.
-Oil market and the XOP; a tag team of telegraphing. Russia’s oil output continues to drop while prices fall.
-A response to an email. I am not an expert on the grains, softs, and trops, and normally stay away from analyzing them, but I have to believe that a lot of the current weather and ebola swine flu is priced in. The long-term trends in the grains have been down and many have been caught offside.
-My concern is that when the common refrain in the farm sector is that of catastrophe, I have to believe the upside is limited. I am just being a contrarian.
-The internet and wealth inequality. More proof that the internet is not good for those who cannot leave their biases and predilections at the door.
-Links to media and articles
Russia’s May oil output hits 11-month low on dirty oil crisis
Gold COT chart
UST 10-year COT Chart
Share of top 1% wealthiest increased to nearly 32% in 2018 from 23% in 1989
May 19th Market Update – Stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, bitcoin, ethereum
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-All three domestic averages viewed with moving averages and what the next moves may be over the next few days into the next few weeks and months.
-As long as bonds perform well, we need to look at the markets from the long side going out to the intermediate term. Daily movement is dependent on the next trade story.
-German, Japanese, and Swiss bond yields go further negative. Swiss 10-year is yielding -0.48%. We firmly stated that the central banks controlled the yield curves and they clearly want sovereign yields to move lower.
-The domestic stock averages continue to outperform the rest of the developed world over the past year, but the European bourses have done better in the short term. If we account for dollar strength, the U.S. is still the winner.
-The next potential market mover, data wise, comes at 2pm, Wednesday, with the FOMC minutes.
–As long as the UST 10-year continues to fall, I cannot recommend going short anything (except commods).
-It’s difficult to be bearish on real estate with fading UST yields, though the market looks heavy in aggregate.
-I would normally be neutral on gold here, but silver and platinum are poorly performing. As long as yields fade and the markets remain firm I am not bullish on gold.
–Gold COT is severely stretched with spec longs accumulating a large net long. This is bearish for gold. When the impending catastrophe is averted, the funds will need to sell once again.
-Gold should test the 1259 50-week moving average soon. It can’t stay above the 100-week and 50-day. Poor silver raises that probability. Platinum just got beat up and looks to be testing 800. Poor gold may not hold.
-Bitcoin shows great resilience. I am more bullish short-term on ETH here (somewhat still LTC, XMR, ZEC, BCH, XLM, XRP) as the ETH/BTC ratio is still near multi-year lows.
-Oil looks very top-heavy. A test of 100-day mva soon? That is just below 60.
Additional links
–10-year global sovereign debt yields
–10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
May 14th Update – Stock averages, bitcoin, gold, tariffs; Externalization of the hierarchy
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-Don’t fall in love with the downside. Potential Dow targets.
-Thoughts on gold and silver.
-Bitcoin broke out of one huge “f-flag” once it popped over 6k. What we should expect forward. There is a maturation process as the same coins from two years ago are still the major players.
-My personal thoughts on cryptos.
-Some thoughts about a few emails I received over the past day or so.
-My advice on how to move forward. Satan wears us out in all ways, not just our patience.
-The externalization of the hierarchy. So what if the U.S. was founded by a bunch of Freemasons? Were the masons from 250 years ago a bunch of devil worshipers like today? Perhaps they were, but there were enough true Christians living here to keep the evil contained. That is no longer the case, so Satan is showing us how evil the U.S. always has been. Satan likes it when we obsess about our dark side. He has been conditioning us for decades to accept this and spiritually euthanize us.
May 11, 2019 Market Update – My observations that point to a managed world; Important bitcoin update
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-My observations with respect to the stock market. When the markets were falling apart late last year, I took note of certain events. All the authorities were coming together and burying the hatchet.
- the U.S. Fed drastically altered its monetary policy outlook,
- the ongoing tariff problems lessened and the prospects for a viable solution brightened,
- All was quiet on the North Korea front,
- The ex-Fed monetary authorities (Yellen, Greenspan, Bernanke, etc.) stopped talking down the markets.
-Since the major averages moved back to their former highs, the Fed has been backtracking somewhat, the tariffs dilemma has heated up drastically, and N.K. is testing missiles again.
-This type of timeline of events tells me that there is a scripted agenda that transcends what we are being told. This also tells me that TPTB want markets at a high enough level, so when the agenda moves forward and things get dicey, they fall from a higher level.
-US Treasury yields fell in time for the Spring real estate selling season. What auspicious timing….
-As long as the U.S. Treasury is pumping out over a trillion dollars a year in new Treasuries, most markets have only one way to go over the longer term. Up.
-The U.S. markets and the dollar are still the go-to for me.
-Inflation is my only concern and only the U.S. is showing some signs of wage growth. I doubt it will be an issue. If it does become a problem, the elites will sink the financial markets and return yields to a lower level. But there is no need for now.
-Never short companies like TSLA, UBUR, NFLX. They perform important tasks for the new world order and are pushing the envelope for everyone else to follow. The elites can create companies worth hundreds of billions and prop them up – even if they have poor financials.
-Negative yields in Japan and Germany are just a glimpse into the future. The markets are still functioning normally here in the U.S.; yields fell as stocks got hit.
–Important cryptocurrency update. How to stay focused when markets move. Don’t make the mistake of trying to find a reason why markets move. The media publish stories that try to make connections. But this is simple and linear. The market and chart action tell the story.
–Hindsight bias explained. The alt-financial media is littered with Monday-morning quarterbacks.
Links to topics discussed –
Global sovereign debt yields
Global stock markets
April 26th Market Update – Global investors rejoice as the central banks remove risk
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-The U.S. economy continues to outperform as GDP growth comes in higher than expected.
-The BEA stated that the federal “shutdown” shaved 0.3% off the GDP headline number (3.2%). This would have produced a 3.5% SAAR growth rate.
-My original thesis from back in 2012 remains in effect. I wrote about this on Henry Makow’s website. If anything the trend has been reinforced with the United States’s higher energy output.
-Higher sovereign debt levels cause higher asset prices. It is a self-generating dynamo. The PPT does not have to go into the market much (only during times like late last December). Higher UST levels accommodate higher asset prices, which support higher debt levels at lower interest rates. The Fed can step in and absorb the extra UST issuance.
-Despite higher asset prices, inflation stays low, because higher debt levels are a deflationary force, while the financial shell of assets stays separate from the real economy.
-In isolation, the Fed should be more hawkish, but it cannot for two reasons:
1) The rest of the developed global economy can no longer afford to deal with higher rates.
2) The global economy continues to underperform the U.S.
-Thus, the U.S. economy and asset markets are the beneficiary of dovish Fed policy.
-As the global economy flounders, global price pressures remain subdued. The U.S. economy is benefiting from a ultra-dovish Fed and low inflation from the oversupplied global economy.
Global stock markets
Global sovereign bond yields
April 2, 2019 Update – A monetary system fit for degenerates
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-The harsh critics of the private central banking system are sadly mistaken if they think this system is going to collapse.
-It actually is not that difficult to keep this system going. The central banks have proven themselves as worthy to the task. The global pool of investors now view the central banks as their partners.
-This system is designed to be satanic to its core and it’s purposely constructed for maximum soul stripping.
-This current system is the same system described in Revelation. The wealth inequality going out into the future will be mind blowing. The vast majority of people will have nothing but debt, while the captains and the chiefs will own it all. The people will look to the government for help and socialism will expand greatly into the future.
-The central banks are clearly going to do whatever it takes to keep things going.
-Dow 30k coming soon? I predicted Dow 20k when the Dow was 16,500. The central banks are welcoming higher asset prices.
-I have been predicting lower interest rates. That’s what we are getting
February 18th Market Update – Wrapping our minds around potentially explosive dovish monetary policy
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-Trump folds on the wall and spending and the U.S./China outlook ostensibly brightens. All the government officials are saying market supportive things. I just observe how they are all speaking with one mind. Their intention to support asset prices is remarkable.
-The RBA discusses dovishness. The PBOC is injecting massive liquidity and undertaking their own unconventional policy.
–The Fed adds to its balance sheet last week. That is truly dovish.
-If things roll over and the Fed begins to add in earnest, and the other central banks like the ECB and PBOC add to assets and inject unprecedented liquidity, the Dow could blow through 30k.
-All the ingredients for unconventional policy formation is present; low inflation (despite strong employment), low interest rates, and weak economic growth worldwide are all prerequisites for the promulgation of hyper-growth in the central banks’ balance sheets.
-The relatively strong U.S. economy is what is keeping the ECB from resuming further easing. If they eased now the euro would sink into the abyss.
-If dovish policy grows, look for residential real estate prices to further disconnect from economic fundamentals.
–The 10-year UST futures COT is pointing to a floor in yields here and a resistance in UST prices. This is shorter-term and not a change in the secular trend.
-Gold looks good, according to the latest COT report. Silver and Pl need to catch up. If we test 1,362 again, we should take it out. This price has been longer-term resistance over the past few years. Once in 2016 and again last year. If we take it out on close, 1,400 could be in the cards.
-Keep in mind that oil and gold have been doing well despite a very strong dollar.
-Oil has responded well and is up against the 100-day mva.
February 4th Update – The art of ruling the people is ancient and the techniques only get more perfected
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–First item; This Wednesday at 7:30 pm, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will host a town hall meeting with educators from across the country joining him in the Board Room of the Federal Reserve Board’s main building in Washington D.C.
-Tonight at 7:30 pm, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the 50 Club of Cleveland Annual meeting in Cleveland, Ohio.
–Second item; Most people are embracing the tenets of the NWO. The NWO is a spiritual system of voluntary servitude and self-indulgence. Why have FEMA thugs forcibly take our DNA samples, when the vast majority give it away freely? Privacy rights in the internet age are an oxymoron.
-The nation is already one big FEMA debt slave camp. The FEMA camps and Army CILFs will have the barbed wire turned outward, to keep people from trying to get in.
-Is the internet a good thing? Any close relatives who send in their DNA for geneology and medical testing have, in effect, given your DNA to the government authorities. Look at this case, for instance.
–Third Item; A discussion of Alan Watt’s February 3rd podcast – The art of ruling people only gets more perfected.
February 3rd Market Update – Housing analysis and the data I use; Stocks, gold and silver, oil, bonds, bitcoin; Chart and market action and my predictions
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-Housing analysis; Are we beginning to see a shift toward some sort of longer-term equilibrium? Time will tell as we are still in a deficit, but things may eventually change. New Homes sales are slowly rising and the average and median prices have fallen. Residential construction rose, after a drop in September and October.
-December’s data has been delayed, because of the government “shutdown, but home builders may be adjusting. Build more units and use cheaper-grade materials. They need to adjust to higher mortgage rates.
-I am concerned that traders may begin to speculate on how genuine the Fed is with its dovish stance. The latest Fed balance sheet data indicate a further asset unwind.
-I am turning neutral on gold this week; We have been bullish on gold since mid-August at 1190-1200. The COT report from way back in late December indicates a large shift in sentiment. The Commercials added tons of shorts at a much lower price and while the numbers back then were still reasonable, I am sure the trend intensified over the next five weeks. We are up $130 since our bull call.
-I am neutral on oil and the 10-year UST. Though the COT report is more bullish for oil, I have to think that after a test of the 100 day mva (59.25 currently, but dropping fast) we will rest. Moreover, we need to see the XOP pop above 31 resistance to 33-34, before I am convinced higher prices will prevail.
-The gold and 10-year COT reports show how well a trader can do when he or she trades against the large specs when they are overly stretched.
-Still bearish on BTC; One descending triangle after another. Is the latest floor in the low 3,000’s about to break? There have been several descending triangles over the past year; all within one huge year-long descending triangle. There is a lot of blood in the crypto realm and many of the gurus are now broke and need to liquidate. Lethal overconfidence on display as things wipe out.
February 1st Update – A message to the end time profits; What happens if they don’t ban cash, the Dow goes up to 40,000, and there is no economic collapse?
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-I think the stock averages may have topped out here short-term. I sold my day trade stocks. (2:50 pm)
-The averages are all right around their 100-day mva’s. We need a rest and I think a drop to the 50-day is warranted.
-These are trendless markets and the moving averages are important as the other traders are looking at them, too.
-Some may think the the strong unemployment report may place the Fed’s dovish policy in doubt in the short-term.
-My short-term concern is that some traders may begin to also question the Fed’s sudden change of direction. They may think the Fed sees something they have not admitted.
-The COT reports should come out later today. I will analyze them are report my predictions.
-I see a lot of unwitting end time profits in the church. They all predict economic collapse, a ban on cash, and stock market collapses. What if they don’t come about?
-Satan knows us better than we know ourselves. He knows the eschatology students are preaching economic and market collapse and a ban on cash as prerequisites to the tribulation period. I submit there is no need to have any of these come about. The Fed could continue printing cash all the way to the day Jesus comes back, but hardly anyone would accept cash for payment as that would not make them good citizens.
-This would allow the end time system to come in through the back door while the church was looking the other way.
-The vast majority of people will embrace the end time system. They won’t be rounded up and sent to FEMA camps. They will love this system. It will approve of their self-indulgent behavior.
-False dilemmas in the church. Christians have been conditioned to look at money with disdain and to think that their desire to gain wealth is anathema to Christian doctrine.
-If our desire to gain wealth is to help us achieve independence and self-sovereignty as a Christian then our goals can be viewed as being noble. Our goal is to become as independent of the system as possible. The freedom afforded to those who are free of the system’s encumbrances is exhilarating.
-Those who will be the most ensnared will be those who are dependent on the system or government, in debt, fearful, or are tied to unbelievers.
January 30th Market Update – The US Fed delivered more than anyone expected
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-The Fed blew the doors off the market. What a change in only about five weeks. This is completely unprecedented. They even issued a separate statement on their asset balance sheet actions.
-The Fed will probably keep an oversized balance sheet on an ongoing basis (a significant buffer). The Fed hinted at rates cuts and balance sheet additions.
-Powell discussed how liquidity needs (meaning monetization of gov’t debt) continue to balloon.
-The trading community is betting on rate cuts starting in January 2020, with little chance of additional rate hikes in this cycle.
The Dow futures briefly took out the 100 & 200 day mva, and stand right at them as I write. The S&P and Nasdaq are moving closer to these important mva’s. Look at what FB has done in the aftermarket. There is a lot of money that sold out and needs to be redeployed. I bought more stocks right after the Fed announcement. I will sell on any further lift. Perhaps the lift might be getting long, but don’t count out any spikes higher.
-Look at how gold, silver, oil have done. The XOP is bumping against 31 resistance.
-This does not mean that the global economy is out of the woods, but this goes a long way to calm the global credit markets.
-The Fed is increasingly discussing how its policy is affecting the global economy. It previously operated with little emphasis on its actions and the rest of the world. The dollar fell and this helps to calm global dollar debt markets.
-The central banks, led by the Fed, will do whatever it takes to support asset prices.
-I contemplate a world where the central banks will have expanded balance sheets and will do whatever it takes to make certain asset prices grow. With bond yields clearly on the down trend, I see items like real estate finding support again.
-If the Fed gets anymore dovish we may begin to hear about how Larry Summers wants negative short term rates again.
January 28th Market Update – I wonder if too many traders are anticipating more Fed dovishness
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-The FOMC announces policy on Wednesday, with Jerome Powell’s press conference shortly after. If the Fed hints at anything conflicting with Friday morning’s WSJ article, the markets could dump. Stocks, commodities, and gold could get hit. Things are priced very optimistically.
-Except for some short-term trades, all my trading accounts are in cash and I am waiting for the appropriate signals.
-XOP hitting resistance at 30. My concern is that the drillers are performing worse than oil. WTI needs to stay above its 50-day mva of 50.90.
-The BOJ QE has been progressing for at least 25 years. I marvel at all the well-respected economists who contemplate that the Japan’s QE cannot continue indefinitely. I SAY THEY CAN.
-COT reports are still not out and that hinders my weekly futures trades. I am uncertain as to where I see gold. The market action looks good, though the price rises are not very sizable. My one concern about silver and gold is that they are trading much higher than their 200-day mva’s. It’s not a concern short-term, but unless there is a bull market breakout this will eventually cause problems.
-The bond market is in a holding pattern, waiting for hints from the Fed. The global credit market problems have eased since late December when the Fed turned tail.
-Stocks indexes are all positioned similarly above their 50-day mva’s. The elites hope to keep things this way and this is a reason why I think the Fed will not make too much of a fuss on Wednesday.
-The Trump/China trade problems present some great trading opportunities. It changes every day, so sell on “breakthrough” news and buy on the doom.
-The trade dilemma is not supposed to be resolved. It is institutionalized and was set up that way almost 50 years ago. The friction just supports our thesis of future war. Since Trump gained office the trade deficit with China has ballooned.
-Cryptocurrency analysis. The chart and market action still point to further bad news for the bulls. I have no opinion on the cryptos as an asset class, but when XLM, a top-10 crypto, takes out its former bear-market low, I take note.
-Bitcoin analysis in isolation is misguided. I get a much better feel for BTC trading by looking at the larger alt-coins.
January 25th Update – If you think the internet is a good thing, take a look at how the vast sea of humanity has changed in 25 years
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Note: I speak as a Christian remnant and someone who understands the new world order and the agenda to enslave humanity
-The internet may be a good thing for a particular person, but for 90% of humanity it has been a detriment. Degeneracy can be easily reaffirmed through the internet.
-The wealth gap has only widened since the internet went mainstream. For most of the population (yes, the alt-financial followers) making financial decisions based on what they see on the internet is a one-way ticket to poverty.
-Our Adversary loves the alt-financial media. He gets so excited every time another blogger puts out another article proclaiming economic calamity.
-Satan will get his black horse and there is no need for collapse; just the fear is enough. Everyone will be chasing their tails while the end time monetary system will come in through the back door.
-With the web, people can effortlessly indulge in any idea. If we wonder why families, morals, and intellectual capacity have degraded so quickly, we can thank the latest technologies like the internet, cell phones, and TV. It’s a job well done by the elites.
-Satan loves to spread fear and hopelessness. Learned helplessness and despair are wonderful to the elites. The more drugs we take and the more people who commit suicide, the more the agenda is fueled.
-The manufactured social divides widen with the internet. The confirmation and cognitive biases are preyed upon. Humanity is quickly being subdued and placed into a satanic cattle pen.
-I have to conclude that most of the technology of the past 50-80 years was given to humanity by some other force.
-This end time agenda is speeding up tremendously. Satan knows he has but a short time. The introduction of the internet is the only way he can hope to achieve his goal.
-Those who are in debt, depend on W-2 or 1099 income, an employer, or rely on government benefits will be the first ones to be gone. Those who are liquid and rely on passive or business income will remain around longer.
-I have built up 2.5 years of living expenses in liquidity. We need to stay out of debt and remain liquid.
-There is no need for the elites to confiscate our checking accounts. They will paper it over with debt, which will be a deflationary millstone.
-I am still investing and planning for the future. I plan to buy more real estate. Prices in many areas (even the greater DC area) are still reasonable.
January 20th Market Update – Stocks and bonds responded well to the stimulus; moving averages discussed; Trading thoughts; Loose money will shut out more real estate buyers
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-Unless the stock market rolls back over, which I doubt, US Treasury yields will retest their moving averages. The yield curve is managed, so serious conversation on yield curve inversions is pointless.
-I received an email asking me to discuss BREXIT and what I think will happen. My analysis on how power is consolidated. Once the consolidation is achieved it is NEVER relinquished. All power continues to consolidate.
-The NWO is built on a wall of worry. All this upcoming chaos is generated. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Reaches Record High
–More people think that real estate has topped out. I see this as a contrarian indicator. When the central banks begin to engage in more unconventional monetary policy look for house prices to continue to move higher. More people will be priced out.
-Rents are 37% higher nationwide than at the height of the last real estate bubble (1/01/2006).
January 19th Update – As society decays, the teachings of the Talmud are spreading worldwide
Note: I will put out a separate market update later this weekend.
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-A reader sent in an email about a January 16th podcast from Trunews.com, discussing the Talmud and how those who aspire to be rich are embracing its teachings
–THE ART OF TALMUD: CHINESE COMMIES SEEK ISRAEL’S BABYLONIAN SECRET KNOWLEDGE
–Talmud-inspired learning craze sweeps South Korea
–Inside China’s Bizarre Obsession With Jews
-The alt-financial media get it wrong over and over again. The control of the Synagogue of Satan was on full display last month.
-What would the elites have to gain from collapsing their system? None, except to leverage the manufactured chaos to consolidate their wealth, power, and control
-Instead of calling it the “Great Recession,” perhaps we should call the manufactured 2008 financial crisis as “The Great Buying Opportunity.”
-Why do the alt-financial media fail over and over? They cannot accept that these elites are in control. They are like people who grow up in religious families and know the truth, but reject it. The alt-financial media and their followers will never accept the truth and based on these lethal confirmation biases, they will make the worst financial decisions over and over. Their followers grow more helpless and hopeless.
-Imagine if we shorted these markets in December? I begged you not to short these markets. Once the Fed came out and the plunge protection team intervened, I loaded up my trading account with a bunch of stinker stocks and rode them up. I have been peeling them off and have about 25% of the original position left.
January 16th Market Update – Expanding central bank balance sheets fuel asset prices; Falling oil prices too much for central banks to take; The alt-media is short on knowledge, but long on showmanship
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–The central bank balance sheets are once again expanding in aggregate. The latest research shows that the central banks have begun to add to their balance sheets once the the major stock averages began their precipitous free fall late last month.
-There are still decent real estate prices and some fair deals in the United States. So what if prices took out their 2005 highs? Rents are up about 30% over that time. Camparatively, residential real estate can still provide predictable returns. Just stay away from the overpriced areas. Simple math can determine this.
-Mortgage rates are down about 50 bps. Subsidized mortgages are doubleplusgood.
-I look for the 10-year UST yield to touch the 50-day mva.
-There is so much dishonesty and showmanship in the alt-financial media.
–X22 Report has about 350k YouTube subscribers, but virtually all his predictions have been incorrect. But that doesn’t matter. He’s short on financial market skill, but long on showmanship. He must make a lot of money on his monetized channel. He just keeps shoveling the crap to the unwashed masses who have convinced themselves that collapse is right around the corner for the past decade.
-For people who listen to and follow the X22 Report or the other charlatans in the alt-financial media, their lives have already collapsed. These dumbed-down patriots are now unable to free themselves from their confirmation bias and the shackles of calamity fears, while these dispensers of collapse porn sink their followers further into the abyss.
January 14th Market Update – Moving averages are important; The latest trade data point to continued problems; AMZN and AAPL have problems; Bitcoin, treasuries, and the dollar
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-Domestic stock market analysis with some ideas.
-In this uncertain trading environment, a look at the moving averages is important
-Fed Vice-Chair, Richard Clarida, talks the party line
-I still think the Fed may unwind the balance sheet more than what some are hoping for.
-A retrace of 10-year UST yields to 50-day mva (2.93%) is in the cards.
-It is difficult to determine how gold and oil will do when we do not have the COT reports. The weakish US dollar should continue to support both as well as the commodity sector.
-The concerns over the flattening yield curve may be unwarranted. We live in a centrally-managed economy and financial system
–The latest Chinese trade data do not help the trade negotiations and will continue to cause problems for the foreseeable future.
-AMZN and Jeff Bezos. Could we look back 10 years from now and say this was the beginning of the end for AMZN? Bezos is 54, will probably lose half his shares, and seems more concerned about chasing tail at this point. It is easy for him to take his eye off the ball. Some say he is interested in running for office. That is too many distractions. Bezos said that eventually all companies die of old age. Is he hinting at something?
-AAPL has its own set of problems. It doesn’t have Steve Jobs anymore and Tim Cook cannot seem to conjure up more novel ideas. Is he just squeezing out extra toothpaste from the tube? When Warren Buffett catches on to a tech company’s financial engineering, perhaps it’s too late. AAPL is not a banking firm.
-AMZN and AAPL problems don’t necessarily spell the end of the Nasdaq rally, but it can’t help.
–Are the latest bitcoin stories believable? Any BTC bull should dip back into the game and pick up a small starter position. The returns are asymmetric.
January 11th Educational Update – Getting ahead in rural America; Prosper during desperate times
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Keep in mind that social proof is a very powerful force. It keeps the debt-slaves in their place and is a self-imposed slavery of the mind. The Opioid crisis and degradation of the wage-base are pounded over our heads to promote hopelessness and despair. We can overcome.
–Meet a person who works three jobs and cannot stay ahead; A perspective of life in Wilkes-Barrie, PA. But this can pertain to any rural or economically depressed area in the United States. It could pertain to Dayton, OH, or Huntington WV (two cities I have traveled to, my mother lived in Dayton as a child).
-In Wilkes-Barrie there are over 90 houses that sell below $50,000. Many of these homes can be bought with seller financing or with federally-subsidized loans, with little money out of pocket.
-Chris, the person in the interview, could borrow $20-30,000 from his or his wife’s parents to buy his first couple houses.
-He can learn how to work with the Section-8 housing voucher program, which assists with the rent payments of lower-income tenants. He can provide a valuable service to his community while making superior cash flow.
-In many working-class and lower-income areas, Section-8 housing vouchers will provide higher rents than non-subsidized rents.
-I have participated in the Section-8 voucher program in the past and observed that my subsidized tenants were often superior in many regards to my non-voucher tenants. They appreciated my efforts to provide them a great place to live. All it takes sometimes are stainless-steel appliances.
-If these voucher holders do not take care of the premises, abide by any of the terms of lease, or do not pay their stipend portion, they can lose their vouchers. You can be their last hope. Develop a good relationship with the county voucher case workers and you will be sought out by everyone, even other sellers.
-There is a lot of hope and we can move forward.
-Chris could easily acquire 8-10 homes over several years. He can eventually quit a couple of his jobs and have enough money for retirement. He could take vacations with his family and live a longer life.
January 9th Economic Update – Market analysis and commentary; Normative vs. positive economics; People are becoming more irrationally irrational
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-Fed policy flip/flop gives some great long opportunities. Will it last? The markets reacted in a very predictable manner.
-Emerging market stresses have abated and the US dollar has faded, as expected
-With less uncertainty in the emerging markets, oil is rising. Lower interest rates help the drillers
-Gold holding up with the rest of the commods.
–Normative economics vs. positive economics. I don’t give my opinion on normative policy and objectives. In order to succeed financially, we must analyze the results of normative social policy ( we use positive economic analysis of cause and effect), and make decisions based on the likely outcomes of social spending programs.
-We cannot change the world at large. How we respond to it will make the difference. It takes an objective and independent mind; a rare commodity.
-Social objectives always come with hidden costs and negative externalities. If we can identify them, we can stay ahead of the rest of the population
-People are acting less rationally irrational. They are becoming more irrationally irrational. They can no longer take care of themselves and are quickly losing their free-will.
-I propose some reasons why humanity is becoming less able to think rationally. A Jeff Rense interview with Tim Rifat.
-The futurists from 50-150 years ago all discussed how humanity would turn out. They were correct. Look around.
-Take a step away from the daily news feed and social media, regardless of source. We are being conditioned to accept chaos and depravity.
-Our hope is that we can overcome the hypnosis and degradation of western humanity to move forward and succeed.
-Boom/bust cycles; why they are accelerating in speed and amplitude. It has nothing to do with what Martin Armstrong discusses.
January 8th Update – Answers to email questions; My thoughts on forgiving student loan debt, universal health care, and the Trump wall and mass immigration
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-Keep in mind, I am not here to offer my opinion on whether I like or dislike social spending.
-What would happen if the US government forgave $1 trillion in student loans? Who would benefit and who would suffer? I apply economic logic to show how we would be impacted
-Does a country benefit with universal health care? Do the benefits outweigh the costs?
-The politicians and demagogues count on the average person never making these simple connections.
-I feel badly for most Canadians. Their personal debt levels are out of control, but the costs of social spending manifest somewhere. There is no such thing as a free lunch and the tax burdens are continuing to rise. Moreover the massive deficit spending and personal debt accumulation create negotiable debt instruments that are used to buy up other assets. In Canada, the specific problems arise in its real estate markets.
-Michael Moore won’t ever tell you this, but what is the cost of universal health care in Canada? A real estate market that will forever be more expensive than the average tax-slave can afford.
-With respect to the Trump wall, notice how Trump is being pitted against two highly polarizing and unpopular democrats (Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer). If the democrats wanted to stop all this, the party could have presented a middle-of-the-road Senator from the Midwest. It’s just Kayfabe and the battle of the meaningless must continue.
-It is amazing how worked up many of my friends have gotten over this wall situation.
-Where are the costs for immigration borne? How does the average person lose?
-How do we stay ahead of the social and deficit spending?
-Gold shills get it wrong all the time. If we have a hyper-inflationary collapse, I will tell you where to invest.
January 6th Update – Ray Dalio may be a genius, but he is a disingenuous shill; More Fed analysis; Some surprising long-term predictions
–Ben Bernanke met with Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner yesterday to discuss the economy and financial system. He is surprised the markets are holding up this well and that comparisons with last decade are seriously misguided. I agree.
-Mortgage rates around the world are dropping. Denmark’s home buyers will soon borrow at 1.5%. Japanese buyers borrow at less than 1%. Germany’s rate for a 30-year is just over 2%.
-The next move for US mortgage rates is down; perhaps eventually taking out the old lows over the next few years. GET READY!
–Some smart money is building build to rent single-family housing. People cannot manage their debt-slave lives and will occupy these residences.
-The central banks are desperate to raise rates and unwind their balance sheets to have ammo for the next downturn. They will fall short and will have to resort to unconventional policy (<0% rates and bigger balance sheets)
–Ray Dalio has an agenda and it is to appease the ChiCom government, so he can deploy his billions into sweetheart ChiCom deals.
-Ray Dalio is like Tokyo Rose, but the alt-financial media, which is desperate to see the destruction of the Anglo-American establishment and NWO, pick up on his shilling to perpetuate its poverty echo chamber.
-We used last month’s IMF data to state the case that the dollar is not going anywhere for the indefinite future.
-We may be surprised that the stock markets may hold up better than the alt-financial is contemplating. When I see the alt-financial media proclaiming Dow 3,000 and that NFLX is worth $0, I think we may bottom sooner rather than later.
-The tens of trillions in new sovereign bonds that were issued this past decade are being used as monetary equivalents and leverageable assets to buy up all sorts of assets. Those with the collateral will do the buying. These bonds can help the nations to issue more debt. This outstanding debt is highly deflationary as it must be serviced and paid back, thus creating a sucking force out of the economy.
-Asset prices will continue to rise and all this social spending will just crowd out private investment and further impoverish the average person. These people will cry out to government for help, which will only further tighten the shackles.
January 5th Update – My quick take on yesterday’s Federal Reserve monetary round table
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– Three U.S. central bank leaders — current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his immediate past predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke — spoke in a roundtable Friday morning in Atlanta at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting.
-The Fed is clearly adjusting their language to accommodate the increasing market volatility
-The Fed was concerned that Jerome Powell’s presence would not be strong enough, so they added Yellen and Bernanke to the panel interview.
-The purpose of yesterday’s panel discussion of the Fed chiefs was to show a unified approach to monetary policy.
-Yesterday’s panel was there to help enhance the Fed reputation and that it knows it will get the blame if things roll over.
-We are not out of the woods, as credit market problems are persisting and growing. However, the drop in sovereign yields around the world are a direct reflection in the change in the Fed’s stance.
-On Thursday, the Brookings Institute released a Janet Yellen interview in which she reiterated her concerns over elevated asset prices.
-On two occasions yesterday, the panel (Bernanke) recognized the Fed’s need to look at what its policy was doing to the global economy. I think this is the first time they discussed this as an important concern.
-US unemployment numbers were much better than anticipated, but I have always stated that employment levels are a coincident indicator, at best.
-Guidance by AAPL is more of a forward or leading indicator, so we still may eventually have problems, regardless of Fed policy
–Mortgage rates dropping fast will lend support to real estate.
-Two recommendations going forward (working-class real estate and cash)
January 3rd Market Update – Remaining objective in a subjective world
-Market volatility is to be expected as things continue to unwind
-AAPL earnings and guidance are truer leading economic indicators. Unemployment (Today’s bullish ADP numbers) is a lagging indicator.
-Credit market problems in Canada and Australia (via their real estate markets) are just symptoms of further problems to come. Chinese economic and credit market contractions are quickening
-Plan for the inevitable outcome of negative rates in the US and the other developed world
-We were warned almost a year ago that credit and asset markets were going to do what they are doing now.
-Cryptos still point downward. As credit contracts there will be no way that these assets will move higher.
-Gold still looks good and the COT report still points to a bullish tilt. $1,300 by tomorrow?
-Trump is creating a lot of uncertainty and the Fed flight path was preprogrammed going back before the 2016 election. Bernanke talked about balance sheet unwind when he was Fed Chair.
-Powell is carrying out the plan, but the Trump problems are creating the unforeseen. Trump is not our ally, as I question his stability. The working class has continued to fall further behind under the Trump economic policies.
-Trump is not fighting the new world order. He was put in to promote the new world order’s next phase.
-Currency market volatility precludes us from actively speculating in currencies.
-Working class real estate is the only asset class I see as still providing opportunity
-There will be opportunities to those with the liquidity
New Years Update – Make the most of 2019 and embrace the opportunities; Commentary of Network (movie, 1976)
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-People have been talking about collapse since I was a child. For those who are the unwitting victims of the new world order, it may seem like one.
-Society has been transforming for a long time and it is a society that most people find acceptable. It has become Sodom and Egypt. The few (you and I) who do not need to adjust and move forward. We need to carry the goodness in our hearts and help others who will listen.
-Our adversary enjoys the collapse fear-mongering. The people who are addicted to the collapse talk never plan for the future.
-The battle is mental. Look around and see the degeneracy. The vast percentage of humanity have already succumbed.
-2019 will present so many opportunities to succeed. We can defeat the NWO, but not in the way most imagine.
–Network (I am mad as hell….)
-We have been told where the world is moving. Why did Jesus come to this planet?
-My one reservation about an upcoming stock market/economic collapse; how can there be one when half the investors have already planned for one? By definition, that is the self-correcting mechanism.
-Stay liquid and pay down debt.