…I have learned a lot from you and gotten to start reading the Bible daily particularly the old testament where now I can identify who is whom, and it makes sense.
I have shared this with with my mom and she is amazed on all the things she did not know. Every other family member is deceived to the core. In some of your blog messages, there is an undertone of sadness. But I feel we should rejoice for what is to come.
This all needs to come to pass
Indeed, it’s sad to know that my fellow Westerners are beginning to die from a bioweapon campaign engineered by our adversary. It’s sobering to know that the Western and Christian values I once took for granted represent only a faint shadow in this present world. I write this blog post as I listen to Beethoven’s 6th Symphony, and marvel at the miracle of life and revel in our ability to make an important choice right now; a choice that Jesus in John 4 explains to a woman by Jacob’s well.
Jesus answered and said unto her, Whosoever drinketh of this water shall thirst again: But whosoever drinketh of the water that I shall give him shall never thirst; but the water that I shall give him shall be in him a well of water springing up into everlasting life.
¶ The woman saith unto him, Sir, give me this water, that I thirst not, neither come hither to draw.
John 4:13-15 KJV
The primary reason why the globalists need to jab everyone is so the control group (the unjabbed) remains small. Thus, going out to mid-decade, when the people start getting sick with blood clots, heart attacks, destroyed immune systems, strokes, Bell’s palsy, heart and circulatory problems, cognitive impairment, organ failure, etc., the MSM will be able to fool the vast majority of dupes into thinking that the rise in stillborn births, infertility, and accelerated death events are just normal, or a fluke in statistics.
Everything we hear and see is now a lie. You and I need to stay together to keep sane.
Is the third secret of Fatima revealing itself?
I came across a December 3rd Jeff Rense interview with a Father Paul Kramer. Father Kramer claims to be an expert on the third secret of Fatima, and he seems to be knowledgeable with regards to eschatological matters and how the third secret of Fatima fits in to the timeline. Thus, I wanted to include it with this post. I have no opinion of either Jeff Rense or Father Kramer. I have no opinion on the matters of the secrets of Fatima, but include this for your reference.
What Father Kramer claims seems to be germane to our running and ongoing theme regarding the upcoming US dollar force majeure (since early 2020, I determined this to also be the time of Jacob’s trouble). If you think we are critical of Pope Francis, this man makes me look like a piker.
He also theorizes that Pope Francis will reorganize the church upon completion of the current synod, which is set to end some time in 2023. Father Kramer’s timeline conforms cleanly with this decade’s march towards the Great Reset, as well as our timeline, given what we know about the true Israelites, and their ultimate fate. He also claims that while the new world order will finally emerge in all its full horror, he is in agreement with my assessment that God will intervene and end it. He is of the conviction that this age will not get past this decade. You and I will live to see it all.
So, if you wonder why I can appear sad, I think you already know why.
Sure, I am an economist and financial expert, and thus I recommend we keep doing what we have been doing, since it has been a successful venture. But I know it will ultimately not matter much in the end. All I can say is that we need to keep our noses to the grindstone and continue moving forward, with our eyes on the prize.
Note to reader: I do not subscribe to any particular person, and only forward this email, because of my response. My reasons for the powerful rally in residential housing have little to do with market timing here, though many will prognosticate accordingly. Being involved in these matters on an ongoing basis affords me a certain perspective that few possess.
This may be of interest. You and the author have some similar views.
Home Prices, Interest Rates, and Recession
Gary North – November 24, 2021
This was posted on my Website yesterday:
With interest rates predicted to rise will that ensue a recession and cause home prices to come down significantly?
Every month, the Federal Reserve System buys $35 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities. This subsidy to the housing market is extraordinary. The FED announced:
The FOMC also directed the Desk to increase SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency MBS by at least $30 billion per month during the monthly purchase period beginning in mid-December. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the
So, the FED is prepared to support this market in a recession.
Second, prior to a recession it is common for a decline in the stock market to begin. This is the most overvalued stock market in history. I think it is going to create panic selling when it finally breaks.
When people sell a stock, they have to do something with the money. They can put it in the bank. But the bank has to put it somewhere. Where will big money put it? They are going to buy T-bonds. They want a return on their principal. They want safety. This is going to drive down T-bond interest rates.
They will also go looking for long-term equivalents of T-bonds — that will include mortgages. That is going to drive down mortgage interest rates.
This does not mean that there will be a big new demand to buy homes. It depends on the overall economy. In a recession, a lot of people who could have qualified for a loan in the boom phase will find that they cannot qualify for a loan in the recession phase. This is important for entry-level home buyers. If they cannot buy a home, they are going to have to rent. This is why the purchase of investment properties of three-bedroom, two-bath homes in middle class neighborhoods has always been a good investment. Read John Schaub’s books about this.
People do not indulge in panic selling of their homes. They will do almost anything to hold onto their homes. They are going to meet their mortgage payments every month. So, downward pressure on the buyers’ side is likely, but there will be little downward pressure on the sellers’ side.
The insanity of what took place between 2005 and 2008 in terms of mortgages is not going to be repeated. This is why I do not think we’re going to see a decline in housing prices comparable to what happened in 2009 and the years that followed.
Therefore, while recessions are good times to buy homes by using Schaub’s method, I do not expect to see widespread declines in the price of middle-class housing.
Here was my response (edited for grammar):
I agree here though my reasoning differs. I am mostly concerned with investors during this boom cycle in housing, who have been buying a greater percentage of the single family housing stock than before. My concern is that desperate over levered investors could need to unwind.
However, my personal observations have allowed me to be more confident in the resilience of the housing market. My rent rolls have been increasing tremendously over the past two to three years. In particular, there seems to be a powerful demand for single family detached housing stock and townhomes. The rents in my areas have gone up about 30% of the past two years. This has provided a tremendous benefit to the capitalized values of single family housing, and this is why the large money is so interested in this sector.
The large investors view housing as benefiting from any outcome. With higher mortgage rates, rents will be generally rising faster than historic norms, and if bond yields remain low, the capitalized values will increase.
However, my one theoretical concern about this phenomenon is straightforward. If rents begin to fall, we need to be concerned about the prices of residential housing. But I doubt very much we will ever see rents fall. Recall our research regarding the 2005-2008 bubble. Nationwide rents amounts barely budged during the nadir of the 2008-2009 recession.
Rent rolls are surprisingly resilient and the housing stock is being depleted in a larger than normal clip over the past 12 or so years. The builders are no longer building a single family detached housing that is in great demand. Rather, it seems to be higher-end condos and townhomes as well as houses above the median value.
At one house that I am rehabbing, the monthly rent rate has gone up over $1,200 in the past six years. I have another house that will be ready for rent in several months and the market rent has gone up about $700 in the past three years. Indeed, the prices of these houses have gone up quite a bit, but the capitalization rates have barely budged.
For investors desperate for yield, residential housing still makes sense. I ask my family and fellow investors how people can afford these rents, but I leave that up to the tenants to figure out. I let them take the jabs and deal with all of the hassle of working for somebody. I’m the landlord and I’m here to collect the rent. I’m the boss.
In her post, Demasi highlights one of the most commonly used tricks in the book — conflating absolute and relative risk reduction. As noted by Demasi, AstraZeneca and Australia’s health minister, Greg Hunt, claimed the AstraZeneca injection offered “100% protection” against COVID-19 death. How did they get this number? Demasi explains:
“In the trial of 23,848 subjects … there was one death in the placebo group and no deaths in the vaccinated group. One less death out of a total of one, indeed was a relative reduction of 100%, but the absolute reduction was 0.01%.”
Mercola.com, November 23rd
One of the most commonly used tricks to make a drug look more effective than it is in a real-world setting is to conflate absolute and relative risk reduction. While AstraZeneca boasted a relative reduction of 100%, the absolute reduction was 0.01%. For the Pfizer shot, the relative risk reduction was initially 95%, but the absolute risk reduction was only 0.84%
In AstraZeneca’s trial, only 0.04% of people in the vaccine group, and 0.88% in the placebo group were infected with SARS-CoV-2. When the background risk of infection is that low, even a 100% absolute risk reduction becomes essentially meaningless.
Research shows the majority of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in obese COVID-19 patients are autoimmune and not neutralizing. This means that if you’re obese, you’re at risk of developing autoimmune problems if you get the natural infection. You’re also at higher risk of a serious infection, as the antibodies your body produces are not the neutralizing kind that kill the virus.
At nearly 72%, Vermont has the highest rate of “fully vaccinated” residents in the country, yet COVID cases are suddenly surging to new heights. During the first week of November 2021, cases increased by 42%. The hospital admission rate for fully vaccinated patients increased by 8%, while the admission rate for those who were not fully vaccinated decreased by 15%.
Data from physician assistant Deborah Conrad show vaccinated people — counting anyone who got one or more shots, regardless of time since the injection — are nine times more likely to be hospitalized than the unvaccinated
As the Father hath loved me, so have I loved you: continue ye in my love. If ye keep my commandments, ye shall abide in my love; even as I have kept my Father’s commandments, and abide in his love. These things have I spoken unto you, that my joy might remain in you, and that your joy might be full. This is my commandment, That ye love one another, as I have loved you. Greater love has no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends.
John 15:9-13, KJV
I just want to pass along this reminder to those in the remnant who think that by giving in to the consensus they will somehow have this mRNA jab dilemma go away.
Why is our adversary so intent on jabbing us with what is an essentially useless treatment, at the exclusion of all other treatments? Why is our adversary so determined to distort statistics and numbers, and effectively lie to us? This is because these “vaccines” have nothing to do with a virus, but rather something else more sinister.
Our governments have been taken over by our adversary; an adversary I know very well, and one in which I try to reveal to my small audience.
While we struggle by being one of the very few who know the truth during this American Thanksgiving season, please give thanks to the one who is wholly responsible for creating us; the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, who told us to put our trust and faith in the hands of his son, Jesus Christ. For there is no King, but Jesus.
So, if these manufactured sets of circumstances and events spin out of control while our “governments” manage the covid and mRNA jab narrative through their organs of government, medical industry, corporate hierarchy, banking system, and media, there is nothing wrong if we resist this power and reject it in any way we know. As long as we do not resort to violence, we are essentially free to resist and help slow down this satanic freight train.
God demands that we help save the lives of our neighbors, friends, and family. There are many out there who are on our side, but are afraid to do anything. Moreover, many are looking for someone to provide that catalyst. Perhaps we can be that catalyst for change.
May God bless and help us, and may our paths be straight. If it weren’t for my obligation to help my fellow sister and brother in Christ, I wouldn’t even be here writing these words. I lost hope in this world long ago.
I realize you are probably busy with your renovations, but how are you doing out there? With all of the topics we discuss on your site, I hope that’s all there is. Lately there haven’t been a lot of leads, but more distractions.
Here was my response (edited for grammar):
Thanks for the email.
I remain focused on one important phenomenon. I view the persistent and sharp upticks in price inflation, coupled with the ostensible willful ignorance of the monetary and fiscal authorities, as the one “elephant in the room” that has the prospect of destroying the entire quantitative easing system.
Recall our discussion in the early part of last year with regards to the covid-related monetary and fiscal stimulus packages, and their ultimate effects on asset prices; I mentioned at the time that I did not know whythey were doing what they were doing (handing out trillions directly to the end user in a heavy-handed way), but whatever these elites were hoping to achieve, it was intentional. Thus, I have concluded that all of this price inflation is also very deliberate.
For instance, the sharp increases in housing costs are absolutely mind blowing and are not an unintentional byproduct or collateral damage from the massive waves of deficit spending and suppression of longer bond yields. This was intentionally orchestrated and carried out with military precision.
For almost a decade, I have analyzed and reported the basic and detailed concepts of quantitative easing ad nauseam and determined that it was a very viable system as long as inflation remained muted. This would allow QE to exist essentially forever. What I do find peculiar is that this inflation is not only persistent, but is intentionally becoming institutionalized. It’s as if it was manufactured with intent.
I look at all of the manufactured supply chain issues and the heavy reporting in the mainstream, and have to conclude that this is not being left to chance. The governments are being willfully ignorant with their profligate spending, and I have to conclude that the politicians are just carrying out a set of orders that are accelerating the system’s demise.
I have family members that are trying to buy cars, but cannot, as there is no inventory.
A rising dollar and the centralized management of this system
Viewing all this inflation and the economic distortions through the lens of a persistently rising U.S. dollar demonstrates that whatever is taking place, it is being managed down to the smallest detail.
So, what does all this mean? It means that the powers-that-be intend to jettison the system within the next few years, at a maximum. This all dovetails with mid-decade. That will be perhaps within another three to four years, given the current trajectory.
There really isn’t any reason to get on the blog anymore and expound upon the daily matters of life. I leave that up to the novice cassandras in the alt-media. I have made some very dreadful predictions for mid decade, and when viewing it through the lens of our monetary and financial systems, everything seems to be dovetailing.
The eventual civil unrest that will begin to upend and unravel everything will find its genesis here in the United States. It’s going to be pretty tough going out to mid decade. All of these vaccine mandates and eventual passports have nothing to do with a virus. And while this covid analysis in a medical sense is outside my realm, I’m also coming to the conclusion that there is no virus, since many of the efficacious treatments for this so-called covid virus, are not meant for viruses at all. Regardless, these passports to buy and sell have always been the proverbial line in the sand that many people here in America will not cross.
I know I will not cross that line, and if coerced in this manner, I will burn down the town. That is a direct order from God.
The elites know all of this and are accelerating the demise of the current fiat currency system. We always talked about how the quantitative easing was nothing but a wealth and power consolidation mechanism, and if you think this current Antichrist system is evil now, just wait as the desired product slowly emerges.
As of now we still continue buying income generating assets and I continue fixing up my properties and maximizing their capitalized values. I’m currently sleeping at one of my properties on an air mattress. I don’t like doing these things at my age, but there seems to be a sense of urgency now.
There really isn’t much more to discuss and there isn’t much of a need for me to come out every day and report like what others are saying. Indeed, don’t take the mRNA jabs, and prepare mentally and spiritually for what’s coming. We need to empower ourselves to stop relying on the medical establishment.
The elites have many things planned for the eventual showdown here in the states and are preparing accordingly. Much of it won’t be reported in the MSM and we need to get right with Jesus, which means we need to come out of the tax deductible charities that are commonly called churches. Pray for strength during these lonely times. Jesus is always with us if we seek him out.
Make sure you’re prepared for the time of Jacob’s trouble. It’s going to be a sad time for humanity.
Even though longer-term (5-10 years) inflationary expectations remain elevated, the prevailing longer-dated UST yields remain low.
With regards to residential real estate, rent rates continue to skyrocket, while financing and discounting rates offer excellent opportunities for investors to earn superior internal rates of return. While capitalization rates may have dropped by as much as 100 to 300 bps over the past few years, the prospects of escalating rent roles ameliorate much of the ostensible sticker shock. This rosy outlook has been the catalyst behind the higher prices that institutional investors are paying to increase rental housing stock inventory.
While the U.S. median rental price increased 13.6% year-over-year in September, the rents of single-family properties have risen even further. In many areas of the United States, home prices, based on discounted cash flows, still offer value to the investor.
Unless a meteor strike wipes out Washington D.C., the stock market finds itself situated with some of the most auspicious circumstances in history. The above chart tells it all, and this was truly the only reason why I predicted much higher asset prices in the wake of the covid stimulus program announcements in March 2020.
Of course, the movements on the lines in this chart were only made possible with many trillions in stimulus. Without this stimulus, the yield curve and economy would have both blown out. There are too many Great Reset objectives yet to be achieved, and busting bond yields are not yet in the cards.
While inflation helps to raise corporate revenue and earnings, the normally higher bond yields and interest rates operate to adversely impact the discounting of corporate cash flows. So far, the Fed has been able to engineer an almost perfect outcome for stocks here. Even growth stocks continue to shine.
If the supply chain issues and labor market drag caused by the unvaxxed leaving the workforce have not been able to derail this bull market, I doubt there is anything, save higher real bond yields, that can halt the slow climb to Dow 40,000.
You [mention] in your blog [post about] stocks and real estate. I am interested in your opinions on gold, silver, and bitcoin for the short and long terms as investments.
Here was my response:
I refer to all three (gold, silver, bitcoin) from time to time, and specifically recommend gold and btc. I own both, but do not dabble in the other alt-coins too much, other than the well known ones, as I do not know many specifics about the crypto sector. Owning bitcoin provides me exposure to the sector without having to overly dwell on the crypto sphere.
I have always said that there is something unique about btc as its origins are shrouded in mystery. I believe it has a special purpose in the future and with all the derivative products trading against it (e.g. COMEX futures, and BITO ETF), this shows me it has official sponsorship. It has received massive publicity in the MSM over the years. That speaks volumes and provides us a clue about its future.
I am certainly not as bullish on btc right now as I was a couple months ago, but with an impending double top forming on the daily chart, we could see a big breakout run to the upside. Although, I normally sell away my trades on other assets at a double top, this is bitcoin, and btc more often than not breaks this rule. What I do find interesting is that when a new btc derivative product commences trading, btc usually sells off after a huge anticipatory runup.
Any breakout could help the alt-coins like bch, eth, ltc, etc., on a trade. BTC futures must take out the ATH 65520 if we are to see a serious shot at much higher prices (100,000). If it fails here, would could see it retrace to the 50-day sma (48725).
Gold & silver
Gold (Au) was always preferred by wealthier people over silver (Ag), as Au is specifically a monetary metal. Ag is an industrial metal and exhibits wild price swings. Large dollar amounts of Au are easier to hold than with Ag. Spreads are usually much smaller with Au than with Ag. I do like Ag, but I prefer Au over it.
I always say that I own 1 oz. US gold eagles, but recommend people to hold the 1 oz. version of whatever their country produces. So, Canadians should hold maple leafs.
I think the PTB want to keep Au in this range for now (close to the 50- and 100-week sma). I do see a large move on the horizon, but it could come in either direction. The 200-week sma is about 1550. The ATH is 2089. I accumulate as I get the available liquidity to buy. I stated in the past that btc was created to also keep Au from rising too much. They are partial substitutes.
Note to reader: I added a “contact” page to the website, and my email address is email@example.com. Please feel free to ask me any questions. I will respond to them, either privately or via a post. If I publish a post, I won’t use your real name.
Investing successfully during the Great Reset
A reader comments and asks:
Your perspective and interpretation of the current events is bang on! I enjoy the Christian perspective and scripture quotes you refer to, along with some of your followers. As a Born-Again Christian I am very blessed to read your site. It is heartbreaking to see many of my fellow believers brainwashed by what is going on and fast asleep regarding the current events.
1) Regarding finances: What do we do now? I sold all my Real Estate holdings due to the craziness here in Canada. I only hold US stocks and some blue chip dividend paying Canadian stocks. Armstrong still says “DOW 40,000”. But….HE SAID ON HIS SOCRATES AI SYSTEM THAT ON MARCH 8th OF 2022 THERE WILL BE A ONE DAY 50% CRASH…….LIKE THE OCTOBER 1987 CRASH. What do you think?
2) Cyber Crash: I have been hearing and reading a lot lately about the great cyber crash that is being planned by the elites that is coming in late fall or coming just before Christmas.
A complete electronic/societal breakdown: no heat, internet, cell phones, gas, electricity, traffic lights, rationed food, no banking access, Visa Cards frozen, no water pumped from utilities to homes etc…..total chaos! I THINK THAT IS WHY BIDEN CALLED HOME THE TROOPS – CROWD CONTROL AND MARTIAL LAW – TOTAL CHAOS FOR A WEEK OR MORE. What are your thoughts and insight on this?
Here is my response:
Indeed, it is impossible for me to interpret the ongoing “madness” without the understanding of the Bible and my belief as a Christian. Moreover, I would have made the wrong long-term investment decisions and recommendations. Here is my one guiding principal; we must never underestimate our adversary and its ability to achieve its objectives of the new world order. If you think this is not the case, you can listen to the recommendations and fear-mongering of the Health Ranger and Alex Jones. They have plenty of stuff to sell.
Sure, there are some other philosophies and religions out there that can get us a few steps ahead, but those people who subscribe to them will continually underestimate the adversary and overestimate humanity’s ability to recognize the threats to its existence. True remnant Christians should know better.
Here are several questions and observations I ask when making investment decisions:
Question: What would the engineers of the Great Reset gain by crashing the markets now? What would they gain by collapsing the economy?
Answer: The short answer is nothing, but unnecessary uncertainty. They would only create surplus risks for themselves. If our adversary, the synagogue of Satan, decided to slice the Dow by 20-50%, or collapse the RE market by 30%, there would be several adverse outcomes:
1) The concerted campaign to consolidate the global wealth in the most expedient manner would be delayed, perhaps for years.
Since 2012, I publicly discussed how QE was purposely devised to be the primary mechanism for the elites to consolidate the global wealth. Social largesse is nothing but an excuse to soften up the population while simultaneously extracting the global wealth. The money that is created through deficit spending is eventually transferred to those with the income generating assets. While this may help someone who owns a dozen rental properties, for those who control the largest firms, or the central banks, the wealth transfer is beyond comprehension.
2) If the wealth consolidation process is impacted, these NWO engineers would also risk losing the Great Reset narrative in the MSM, medical establishment, governments, NGOs, as well as the educational and military-industrial complexes. It takes tens of trillions of dollars to control these objectives and timelines, and if the elites drop the ball or try to collapse the markets now, they risk losing their position of strength and momentum.
3) If the PTB collapse the markets, they risk undermining their green agenda and ESG investing objectives. These investing theses are complete frauds and are not based on reality. The phony concepts of carbon footprints and ESG can only be supported with negative real interest rates and bond yields. They are not profitable on a stand alone basis, and these lies can only be supported and nurtured with massive QE programs.
4) If the markets are holding up just fine while millions of people are forced out of the workforce from vaccine refusal, I think it’s safe to say the markets will remain in an upward trend. If the powers could effectively shut down the economy for over six months and pay out trillions in “freebies” to the dumbed down and scared livestock, these powers can maintain the markets all the way past Dow 40,000.
5) By keeping the markets levitated, homeowners, 401(k) participants, and stock and real estate investors, will continue to underestimate the existential threats to their existence. If the globalists decided to crash the stock and real estate markets, they risk having the people wake up from their slumber at the most pivotal moment in history.
If these elites want the livestock humanity to take these mRNA jabs, they need to create an environment of ostensible stability in an otherwise “insane” time. Talk of war, the covid scams, vaccine mandates, etc., can only be ameliorated with high asset prices; not the other way around.
Question: What would be gained by creating a cyber crash now?
Answer: We currently have an adversary that is desperately moving to get everyone in the world to receive experimental and unproven mRNA jabs in light of the overwhelming evidence that shows they are pure poison. What would happen to this timeline if the globalists create a cyber crash now? Once again, they risk losing the narrative. I don’t see it, though this has been an ongoing risk in the MSM and alt-media for a decade or so.
Just the talk of cyberterrorism creates the need and excuse to centralize the control of the internet. I view these sham Facebook and social media “whistleblowers” as another act of fakery. These paid actors are placed in the spotlight to help facilitate and accelerate the objectives for tighter control over the web and information/news feed.
Question: Will the markets and economy crash as the people are forced out of the workforce over the vaccine mandates?
Answer: No. Already, the employment data are lagging expectations, and the MSM are wilfully choosing to lie to the people about how businesses cannot find enough workers. The problem is that businesses cannot find enough vaccinatedworkers. If the shortfall persists, the governments and businesses will just replace all those Western college graduates with third-world illegals.
The shocks to the supply chains are all being manufactured or caused by COVID and vaccine mandates. The elites have centralized the power of the transportation and shipping industries, and cause any types of bottlenecks they choose. Don’t ever think for once that any of us are indispensable. We are all replaceable. The replacement workers will just work to raise rents and prices, while the unaxxed college grads fade into obscurity.
Think I’m kidding? Look at the backlash from the vaccine mandates. There is little to none. Where are the attacks and civil unrest? Where is the infrastructure sabotage? There are none. The only acts of “terrorism” will be engineered by our adversary to blame us Christians and anti-vaxxers.
Toss the “cycles” garbage in to the trash bin
Question: What do I recommend as investments?
Answer: Given what we know regarding the Great Reset timeline and its speed of approach, I think we will see more of the same in the markets. However, the “wall of worry” will be completely fabricated and manufactured as the NWO objectives must be achieved in a limited time frame (e.g. out to 2030). Collapsing the markets now will not help our adversary. Our adversary has more to lose right now than to gain.
This has nothing to do with cycles and all to do with a centrally-managed economy, monetary system, and asset marketplace. Beware of charlatans trying to take advantage of your confirmation bias to profit by offering you superfluous, but costly, services.
Never short Tesla, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, or Netflix. People like Michael Snyder may refuse to recognize the value proposition of Netflix, but its existence has proven vital to the NWO engineers. NFLX has been instrumental in creating a demonic and depraved culture who will embrace the evils of the Great Reset. These firms will always get the cheap financing and inflows of money and business to grow more powerful. The biggest only become bigger.
Look how the Dow and S&P 500 have performed in the face of rising catastrophic risks to the economy. Both retook their 50-day sma. Some catastrophe….
Housing and Real Estate
If mortgage rates rise to 5-6% they would only be matching current official inflation numbers. Real inflation is running at least double that, and given the sharp increases in rents, residential real estate is actually fairly priced in the United States. I can actually provide a thesis that states house prices are still reasonable in many areas of the country.
Real mortgage rates have never been lower in history and even if they rise another 100 bps, inflation is still 150-200 bps greater than the 30-year conforming mortgage.
Already, we are seeing the most liberal aspects in government beginning to scale back their wilfully ignorant ambitions. However, the urge to overspend on social and Marxist programs remain. This upward pressure will remain relentless and if any other “catastrophes” emerge, they will only provide for more catalysts to lower bond yields and ramp up QE.
Whether it was the repo madness of late 2018, which “forced” the Fed to reverse course, or the covid scam, each crisis is met with more QE and lower bond yields. Never underestimate the PTB from engineering another market moving crisis to keep their Great Reset agenda on track.
A tenant is giving me an attractive offer; Should I take it?
I recently received an offer from a tenant to purchase a property I own in which she currently leases. Given the recent increases in residential real estate prices, I was willing to consider this ostensibly attractive offer. Let’s run through the numbers to see if it is a deal worth entertaining.
Keep in mind that while this offer is about $20,000 below full market value, it would be an “as-is” offer. Since it is considered a private transaction, I also would avoid broker commissions of about 4%.
The following table enumerates the general financial data behind the proposed transaction on this particular single family house, and illustrates the most likely amounts of taxable and after-tax capital gains.
Okay. The table above shows that the effective capital gains tax rate will be about 20% (15% federal cap gains rate for 2020, 5% for state), and will amount to about $48,000 . Ouch.
But let’s see if the proposed sale at the offer price, which is about 129% greater than my current cost basis, still provides me with a good deal. Keep in mind the longer an investor owns a property the larger the depreciation recapture amount will be. I will thus have over six years worth of depreciation recapture.
As an investor, we are interested in what’s behind the numbers. Thus the current market value only tells us part of the story. We need to see how the rental market has performed over this time frame. While we may not be getting full market rent, other investors will price real estate off this potential amount.
As we can see in the above example, the full market rent that this house provides a potential landlord has climbed by nearly $1,000 a month. This is a substantial increase, and given this incredible climb, I view the ostensibly attractive offer by this tenant as an inadequate return on my total investment experience.
Though the capitalization rate has dropped slightly over the past six to seven years, it has not fallen that much. The drop in the cap rate is, in fact, surprisingly small, and when we consider the opportunity costs of losing the potential cash flow, as well as the rather substantial capital gains tax liability, I will reject the offer.
I predict that the capitalization rate on this single-family detached house could approach 3-4% if bond yields stay in their historically low range for the longer-term. The capitalization rate on this house in the mid-aughts was about 4%. Moreover, given the trajectory of rent rates, I look for more rental rate increases over the years as more immigrants pour into the local area.
Final thoughts in a post-covid world
Of course, I am basing my purchase/sale decision solely on the financial merits of this potential transaction and am not considering the exogenous factors regarding the state of the post-covid world. These two sets of factors should be treated separately, though both are important, given your personal situation.
I have one final thought here to provide the reader. If I believed that residential single-family real estate ownership is in peril for those who remain unvaxxed, I can always borrow against these homes. Thus, I can cash out to remain liquid, while encumbering the property. This would deter the authorities from confiscating this cash cow.
1971 was an important year for the monetary system… and the labor market
As we can see, the goods trade deficits began to widen by the mid-1970s. With regards to the widening trade imbalances, the catalysts for this long-term trend were established and set in motion 50 years ago, in 1971.
Let’s look at the changes to the demographics of the labor pool since then.
Our government sellout; The 50-year transformation of the labor market pool and the destruction of the middle-class
When it comes to analyzing the long-term demographic trends in the labor market, we should consider the causes behind the long-term trends in the goods trade balance as the independent variable, while everything else depends on these causes to the changes to the goods trade balance.
I submit that the causes of the long-term explosion in the goods trade deficit were directly responsible for the transformation of the United States’ labor market and college industry, while degrading its citizens’ standard of living relative to the rest of the world.
When I compare the 1971 middle-class lifestyle to today, I’m being deliberate in the selection of this time frame. Of course, the lifestyles of 1971 pertain to those of 50 years ago. But 1971 was also a watershed year for our monetary system and the global economy.
The United States throws the American worker under the bus
In 1971, President Nixon shut the gold window to international transactions, while Henry Kissinger began to hold secret meetings with Zhou Enlai, with the express purpose of building up CCP China and its economy.
Around the same time, Kissinger cut a similar deal with OPEC for global oil supplies. Thus, during the early 70’s, the world began to be flooded with U.S. dollars. Although these international dollars were no longer guaranteed with gold; theoretically speaking, if these dollars could remain overseas, domestic priceinflation would not rise as quickly as monetary inflation. Although investor resistance to these new programs resulted in rising price inflation throughout the 70s, these experiments ultimately worked, and by 1980, price inflation and interest rates/bond yields began to ebb.
In essence, the United States elite were willing to accept ever widening balance of payments and trade deficits in return for transforming the U.S. dollar into the global reserve currency. This phenomenon is featured as the cornerstone of the Triffin paradox. We could say that the elites running the United States were more than eager to throw the American workers under the bus in order to achieve the objectives of the new world order.
The Triffin dilemma or Triffin paradox is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies. This dilemma was identified in the 1960s by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who pointed out that the country whose currency, being the global reserve currency, foreign nations wish to hold, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfil world demand for these foreign exchange reserves, leading to a trade deficit.
As anyone can see, the trade deficits here in the states began to widen in the mid 1970s, and by the end of the Carter regime, these trade and balance of payments deficits began to grow for the first time in the nation’s history.
A demoralized labor pool and how the college industry was born
The middle-class lifestyle from 50 years ago is now worth a million bucks, and two income earners can no longer achieve the lifestyle that one wage once provided.
When comparing middle-class lifestyles over various time frames, we should consider both the quantitative and qualitative aspects in our analysis. When we view through this lens, it becomes increasingly clear that the qualitative advantages that people enjoyed previously are now very costly in monetary terms today.
Supply-side economics is a macroeconomic theory that postulates economic growth can be most effectively fostered by lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade.
With the advent of the supply-side shenanigans and Reaganomics, which were just bogus theories that enabled the globalists to offshore the dollars and transfer the wealth and power to ChiComm China, the media and government began to promote job retraining and college education as a way for the American worker to stay competitive in an ever evolving workforce.
By the time the early 80s rolled around, high school students who previously didn’t need a college degree, were actively being encouraged to attend college. Previously to all of this, a college education wasn’t required to succeed in the workforce. The jobs that had been offshored to China and the other developing nations were previously available to Western citizens. For most of these jobs, there was no need obtaining a college education. But in order to achieve the objectives of the new world order, while masking the monetary inflation of the Western fiat currencies, the elites needed to export inflation while importing deflation. As a result, these once precious jobs were exported to cheaper global outposts, where cost-advantage arbitrage became the objective of free trade.
For example, living the middle-class lifestyle of 1971 meant that the family could afford to let the mother stay home and care for the children. When I was a young child 50 years ago, my mother didn’t work, nor did any of my friends’ mothers. Perhaps a couple mothers worked part time 15-20 hours a week, but they were always home for the children when school got out.
My friends’ mothers were the cub scouts den leaders. None of my friends’ parents had college degrees, nor did my parents. My father dropped out of high school at 16, and we were able to make ends meet and still own a house on Long Island. We had large families and plenty of food.
Today, in order to achieve these goals, both parents normally need at least a bachelor’s or graduate degree, and if the mother stays home, the husband better make good money, and have plenty saved up for retirement, because the defined benefit plans and pensions are gone. Moreover, the purchasing power of the monthly Social Security payment has been nibbled away over the decades.
Thus, based on just domestic temporal changes to PPP, I estimate that by the time the primary income earner has reached his mid to late-40s, the balance of a household’s defined contribution assets should be about $500k to make up for these retirement benefit changes.
Thus, the genesis of the current dilemmas we face regarding escalating college costs and the degradation of the wage base can be traced all the way back to the early 70s with the transfer of the country’s manufacturing base to our existential enemy.
While the manufactured feminist campaign during the 70s encouraged women to leave the house and enter the workforce, the transformation of housewives into working drones was borne out of necessity. Fathers could no longer earn enough to maintain the same middle-class lifestyle of just several years prior. To make matters worse, women and men now both compete for the same jobs, which just works to suppress wages further. Adding mass immigration into this mix just creates an additional burden that impacts wage base growth. It is no longer uncommon for some family units to possess three wage earners.
So, how do we turn this around? The answer is, we can’t. But, if we recognize the dilemmas, at least we can work to overcome them. This was the primary reason why I always recommended owning income-generating assets.
Will the Federal Reserve assume the role of personal banker and take away the fractional reserve banking privileges from the commercial banks? Biden seems to hope so. He is using advocates of the USSR’s banking system as its template.
If Omarova has her way, you and I would have to obtain credit from the Fed to buy cars, homes, or obtain any loan.
-Saule Omarova, Biden’s Soviet-born nominee for Comptroller of the Currency thinks Fed should ‘end banking’, admires USSR’s economy because there was ‘no gender pay gap’ and says hedge funds are an ‘a**hole industry’.
-Omarova graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on a scholarship named after Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin.
–The MSM business channels are running cover for this nominee, saying that she is not as progressive as many have feared. They do not mention her Communist past (and present).
-Based on this pick, Powell’s days are numbered. Biden’s picks will be outright Soviet. This is the reason why Elizabeth Warren is vehimently opposed to reappointing Powell. She’s not bright enough to understand these matters, but her handlers will be taking the Fed in another direction. -Watch out real estate investors! A regulatory body Omarova proposed is included in a House bill introduced by progressive Rep. Maxine Waters aimed at expanding affordable housing.
-This conforms to the timeline and the owners of the central banks are throwing it in our faces. Once the COVID monetary and fiscal programmes were announced, I declared that the Federal Reserve would gradually assume the role of primary lender.
-As primary lender, the Fed would manage the entire lending credit system. Thus, the whole concept of the fractional reserve system would be shifted to the Fed. The banks would still lend, but they would no longer be able to expand and contract the monetary supply. All of this would be a function of the Fed, as it would dispense credits as it saw fit.
-All Western central banks will eventually follow suit.