Author: Chris

Most of the forecasting research is a waste of money

Hi Chris,

I enjoyed your insight and commentary on the Bernanke interview.

I was wondering how this new era of austerity will effect the stock markets moving forward. With the average retail Joe reducing or eliminating his 401k contributions because of austerity and lowered living standards; he will not being able to prop up the markets with chump change mutual fund contributions- surely liquidity will be reduced. Will just the elites propel the markets higher?

DOW 45,000 is forecasted by some, like Armstrong, then food shortages and economic depression in about the year 2024, and then a war. I would rather have your insights than these Alt Media/financial guru frauds.

Here is my response;

We do not need to buy expensive forecasting services to get a glimpse into the future. Based on Ben Bernanke’s comments, it seems apparent that the Fed and its owners will not let this financial system fall apart as imagined by the alt-financial media. If what Ben Bernanke says is true, and the Fed has plenty more room to expand its asset balance sheet, then I would not want to stand in front of this freight train.

Though many “retail Joes” may never again find gainful employment with a competitive wage, I view this dry-run national emergency as a warning for the future. Although humanity has been purposely distracted with the trivial, the future will be very bleak for those who are not emotionally and financially equipped to handle this unfolding NWO narrative. But to those who understand this timeline, they can hold up and prosper.

Think about it, Agenda 2030 will not appear out of no where; it will be implemented over time, and we are just entering the next phase. Humanity would never willingly accept these terms of surrender, but if they are scared enough, or if potential resistance believes they will be raptured out of here, then I see little opposition.

Unfortunately, I already see most of the alt-media followers improperly positioned going forward. As long as they doubt the Fed’s ability to keep spreading the needed trillions to consolidate its power over the markets and world, these disillusioned investors will continue to bleed.

Last decade provided us with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build net worth, yet most alt-financial followers were advised to sit on their hands. For instance, the 2010’s was the most auspicious time in modern history to begin building a profitable portfolio of rental real estate. Borrowing rates were low, capital was available, and price ratios were the lowest since the late 90’s. Last decade’s easy financial conditions also provided us with fertile ground to build businesses. Although the stock market has been beaten up here, long-term investors who rode out the problems of 2008 have been rewarded. Even bond investors have fattened up their balance sheets.

Now that the elites have decided to begin deliberately shutting down parts of the economy and to lower its capacity, this window to build a balance sheet has quickly closed for the ignorant and risk averse. They will now be held hostage to the increasingly grim NWO narrative.

Mr. Bernanke’s comments were very revealing as they pointed to a future world of personal austerity, pain, and corporate consolidation across all sectors of the economy. All the programs the Fed is promoting are tailored specifically for the large corporations and it is clear that the Fed’s owners are extremely concerned about maintaining their power and control over its monetary system. Even its “Main Street” lending program is geared to businesses with 500-10,000 employees. The owners of the Fed are also planning for an environment where the U.S. government is no longer functional or up to the task to keep the lights on.

With respect to my predictions for the future, I think they speak for themselves. Given my outlook for society and the power of the Fed, I see a possible DOW 45,000 scenario. Of course, the alt-media followers will observe in disgust and disbelief as the net worth disparities widen, but I see these types of numbers are likely. This large drop in the major stock averages provides the fuel to rocket stocks higher over the next few years.

As I mentioned before, because of this dry-run national emergency,  I estimate that there will be at least 20-30 million newly and permanently unemployed people here in the U.S.  The Fed views these lost souls as collateral damage and its owners have formulated no plans to help the average citizen.  The average American consumes more than 3,600 calories daily – a 24% increase from 1961, when the average was just 2,880 calories. Ask yourself, how will these people find the money to get food? They have never experienced real hardship and I worry that these people will increasingly become a burden to the government.

Thus, I see the establishment of a labor camp system as the most viable answer to our future economic problems. These permanently disenfranchised people will produce the goods that the corporations used to produce overseas. If the US dollar collapses in global trade as many in the alt-financial media envision, then the corporations will have to repatriate its overseas production and supply chain capacity. The whole time, the Fed will support the publicly-traded companies and helped to maintain a floor under stock prices.

For those who cannot stop spending and have nothing to show for the opportunities from last decade, it will certainly feel like a depression. Welcome to the new world order.

 

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here (29:10 duration)

-I provide a line by line analysis of today’s Ben Bernanke online discussion, sponsored by the Brookings Institute.
-Mr. Bernanke was careful to steer the moderator away from comparing the economic effects of coronavirus crisis to the Great Depression, and instead, equating it to a national emergency.
-I observe that the Fed is beginning to assume many authorities that were traditionally reserved for the U.S. Treasury and Federal government, especially with regard to corporate lending. This, I assume is necessary when a future national emergency will render the United States government unable to respond.
-Mr. Bernanke discusses all of the programs already in use and those that are proposed. There are many and I enumerate them all.
-Mr. Bernanke mentioned that the Fed will become active corporate lenders. All the new initiatives are tailored to maintain the banking system and corporations, and will be intended to keep the economic sectors on life support when there is no longer any effective government. There is nothing planned to help the state/local governments and the individual.
-Mr. Bernanke states that there really is no limit to how large the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet can grow. As we did so in the past, he compared the potential size to the relative size of the BOJ’s existing balance sheet (100% of GDP), and stated that the Fed could grow it to that size relative to the U.S. economy with no problem. I agree.
-He mentioned that disinflation or outright deflation will be the main problem over the intermediate term and pointed to commodity prices as an example. I agree.
-When asked if the balance sheet size would cause price issues, Mr. Bernanke equivocated, because he knows that QE is deflationary by definition, but cannot say so.
-To the untrained eye, Mr. Bernanke’s interview wasn’t very revealing, but I see it differently. He speaks of a future world of personal austerity and centralized corporate power, where credit will be very difficult to obtain, as it will be dispensed and administered from a centralized source.
-My overall take on the discussion and my analysis of what lies ahead for us and humanity.
-This coronavirus crisis has been manufactured as a dry run for future national emergencies. These actions, while ostensibly temporary, will be enduring in effect. Mr. Bernanke mentioned the term “hysteresis.”

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here (12:00PM, 14:16 duration)

-I observed a coordinated coronavirus narrative break. Is the worst over? The mainstream business press is contemplating this and we cannot discount it. The reality is not the true situation, it’s whatever the mainstream press say. Beware of the “jumping of the shark” agenda of Zerohedge. In the post 2008 system, real numbers don’t matter.
-Former Fed members and Janet Yellen making the talking circuits. She contemplated equity purchases by Fed. That is the ultimate goal.
-The New York Fed releases its new purchase schedules.
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Securities Operations | 4/6/2020 – 4/9/2020
Tentative Schedule of FedTrade Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Operations for the period from April 6, 2020 to April 9, 2020
-Scheduled purchases amount to $73 billion today alone, with slightly higher amounts over the next few days.
–Real Estate; Thinking about residential real estate; Under the post 2008 monetary system, the federal government has the power and ability to quickly establish mortgage forbearance programs. Borrowers can now easily defer mortgages for up to 12 months. This is much cheaper in the long run than letting these people go into foreclosure.
-Borrowing costs will move lower over time, but gaining access to loans will prove more difficult.
-Stocks; The S&P 500 200-week mva is proving formidable, but if we can get a further break in the NWO narrative, I think it could be taken out.
-Stock recommendation; I bought SPLK (Splunk just after  market open)

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here (33:48 duration)

-Those who can interpret the logical structure of this monetary and financial system will be able to continually spot the most profitable investment opportunities, while avoiding the typical traps of the alt-financial media. The controlled alt-media have been proclaiming collapse since I started reading the genre in 2002.

-All the nation-states are gradually moving to a system of centrally planned economies, run by the owners of the central banks.
-I often get asked how the owners of the private central banks gain control via QE. The more assets on the central bank balance sheets, the more this hidden cartel can control the economic spigots and the greater a stranglehold they can place on all economic sectors and governments.
-I estimate the Fed’s balance sheet will grow to about $10 trillion over the next 9 months and its owners will have fully turned all the nation-state governments into their golem.
–Golem –  1: an artificial human being in Hebrew folklore endowed with life, 2: something or someone resembling a golem: such as
a: AUTOMATON
b: BLOCKHEAD
–Profitable sectors over the next several years; The firms that benefit from war preparation spending and engineering. I also see the track-and-trace technology firms prospering. As global trade collapses and the U.S. effectively transforms into second-world status, many industries will exploit the collapsing U.S. cost structure to bring production back to the homeland. Most of the 20,000,000 who will be permanently unemployed will staff the growing domestic slave-labor supply chain.
-Patriot Acts discussed and how the formulation of the Patriot Acts and DHS included input from people like the former East German Stasi head, Markus Wolf. Many of the unemployed will find gainful employment tattling out on their fellow citizens and neighbors.
-Rental real estate will get hit hard as it’s estimated that 35% of all condo owners in the major cities experience negative cash flow. Many of these overstretched and naive landlords who invested later in the cycle, and those who thought Airbnb was a great and easy way to invest, will get hit hard. This is where we can exploit the asset value destruction over the next couple years.
–Shale oil has a very viable future. The large multinationals will essentially control the entire industry once the smaller independent drillers go bankrupt. Once global supply shrinks to meet the drop in demand, prices will rise again. As we predicted, Sam Zell was wrong.
–Storing cash: I wouldn’t be overly worried about keeping money in the bank. Most people look down on cash with contempt and don’t use it. The average person has been brainwashed by shows like Breaking Bad and conflate cash with drugs and crime, not freedom from an oppressive government. Now, most conflate it with the coronavirus. If the Fed can conjure up $557 billion in one week, I think it’s safe to assume it and the U.S. Treasury can fill the banks with the needed cash in any (imaginary) bank run.

I wanted to pass along the data on the most recent Federal Reserve asset purchases, which totaled  $557 billion last week ended Wednesday. The balance sheet now stands at $5.81 trillion.

Here are the most recent purchase schedules from the New York Fed’s website. All the Treasury purchases will be coupon securities and will be slanted to the longer end.

Treasuries:
Treasury Securities Operational Details

Mortgages:
Tentative Schedule of FedTrade Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Operations for the period from March 30, 2020 to April 3, 2020.

As we can see from the above schedules, The Fed will purchase a staggering $90 billion in assets today. Thus, it’s balance sheet will climb to $5.9 trillion by day close. It will buy $60 billion in Treasuries and $30 billion in Agency mortgage debt.

It is difficult for market bears to overcome this huge wave of asset purchases, and while the average person on the street will not benefit (asset prices will rise over the long-term, regardless of economic circumstances), we need to note that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the markets moving north.

Because of these asset purchases, the markets initially responded well to the dire employment numbers that crossed the tape at 8:30AM. The worse the numbers, the more assets that will be bought.

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here

-A review of the U.S. Army’s Civilian Inmate Labor Facility Program. This program was discussed for expansion during the 2008 crisis and a modified form could provide millions of jobs for the ~20,000,000 that may never again find gainful employment.
-In a post-economically collapsed environment, these labor facilities could produce much of the items we previously imported. Economic collapses are deflationary in nature and this one would be no different. The U.S. could regain a competitive cost advantage.
-Contrary to the belief of the alt-media, the barbed wire fences of these camps would be turned around to keep people from trying to gain entrance. These CILF workers would have a roof over their heads, three square meals, and medical care provided. They would all be there voluntarily.
-The importance of the Patriot Acts going forward. The brave new world is already here and the unwashed will willingly accept anything now to relieve the pain and fear.
-The narrative is only providing for one outcome, forced vaccinations and ID cards with biometrics to prove one’s loyalty to the greater good. Maybe subdermals for private employees?
-The concept of the CCC from the Great Depression is discussed; a prototype from which to follow
-Donald Trump’s approval ratings have risen as he has spent $2-3 trillion in a reelection year. Perhaps if he was elected for a second term, he may decide to just roll it all up and let things collapse. Incumbents who are not allowed to run for office again may make the least popular choices. Maybe a Hillary victory would prolong the largess.
-On many levels, Trump has been a valuable asset to the globalists, and they may want him to either serve a second term or may just delay the election
-If this crisis persists until the fall, the elites may just keep it going during the winter months. Perhaps they may introduce more strains to demoralize the already demoralized masses.
-The news narrative keeps getting worse. The housing market looks to be blown to oblivion.
–Continuity of Government in a post-economically collapsed environment.

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here
(11:15AM, 12:50 duration)

-S&P futures forming a weekly bear flag and cannot get above the weekly and monthly moving averages
-Market action in commodities this week is indicating another down-leg in stocks.
-The only index holding up is the Nasdaq 100. Technology will play an important part in the NWO’s next phase
-The news feed and narrative are still the same as before, but there is more commentary from the so-called experts. Here is an opinion piece from Bill Gates, who is laying the groundwork for our future.
-Massive corporate consolidation seen in the major industries, especially in the domestic oil and retail sectors. In this instance, independent shale oil producers are angry that the majors are not seeking government assistance in international matters.
-Dollar still showing strength and is hampering market recovery. Bond yields still falling and is an encouraging sign that the massive consolidation wave is about to hit.

-Rental real estate will get hit hard here, and those who are over-levered will lose most of their equity. Those who do not have much debt and can collect their rents will benefit in the long run.

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here

-A discussion of today’s important S&P 500 futures market action; just look at the major monthly moving averages.

-The Fed will do the heavy lifting as long as the USDX remains above 96-97. It is currently resting at about 99, despite all the domestic QE.
-MSM and alt-media reporting are encouraging greater Fed QE numbers. These trillions must find a home. It’s just a matter of time until they end up in the asset markets. Imagine the DCF calculations with a 0% risk-free rate (10-year UST).
-The commercial and high yield debt markets show resilience and have come back to life, now that the Fed will backstop the markets. This is perhaps what the equities are keying in on.
-US Treasuries still offer the best relative value with their elevated yields. However, their yield advantages have dropped tremendously vis-a-vis other prime credit nation-state debt, as the Fed is unleashing about $4 trillion in permanent QE, as well as formulating long-term commercial and asset-backed lending programs. This is on top of the $2.2. trillion in fiscal stimulus.
-The system is functioning exactly as we have theorized for years.
-One thought here. The PTB may not wish to see Trump leave office, but used this manufactured crisis to force his hand to unleash this spending during an election year. If Trump were not running for reelection, there would have been a high probability he would have minimized this crisis.
-Mortgage rates keep dropping now that the Fed has already bought over $200 billion in mortgages. QE and fiscal stimulus will further impoverish the 30 million recently unemployed; many who will lose their homes and will become renters, causing rents to rise.

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here

-It doesn’t matter whether this crisis is legitimate or not. This manufactured pandemic has the potential for formulating the largest transfer of wealth in human history. A discussion of how we can successfully navigate these waters. This isn’t a bailout, because that would imply moral hazard behavior at the top. This is a well orchestrated plan.
-I am observing that there has not been any let up in the media’s fear campaign. This tells me that the elites intend to maximize their asset grab. Perhaps we may see even more manufactured horror.
-There is a complete lockdown on the crisis narrative. Fox fires Trish Regan for minimizing the circumstances. There is a total blackout regarding the objective discussion of effective treatments and cures. The elites want to maximize this story line and political correctness rules.
-Many of the +30 million unemployed will never find gainful employment after the crisis concludes.
-Prices of the stocks of the companies that benefit from this crisis are holding up very well and some have even risen nicely. There is a lot of liquidity waiting to be deployed. Once the elites consolidate enough wealth, they will release the tension.

-Only a demoralized society can fall victim to these wealth transfer schemes. My concern is that the elites have seen how soft we have become and may try to increase the pandemic scares in the future. They seem to be effective.
-Permanent Fed assets up $1.5 trillion since the manufactured repo crisis. Fed assets now at $5.3 trillion
-The $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus is longer-term deflationary as the offsetting debt financing needs to be serviced. As the world is less able to service the total debt outstanding, the global economy sinks in a sea of deflationary red ink. Bond yields fall further and the monetary system is strengthened.
-I agree with Bernanke, Yellen and Powell; the Fed has plenty more fire power and can buy up so much more.
-Those who were under-levered going in to the downturn will be the most able to exploit the upcoming opportunities. The timeline is occurring so much faster than in 2008-09, because all the needed programs are already on the books.
-It is becoming increasingly clear that btc will not play a major role in the future of the global currency markets, though the libertarians who are anti-dollar and built the blockchain technology have served a useful role for the elites. I see digital dollars and other currencies. Services like Zelle are much better at transferring cash than btc and other alt-coins.
-Trends to stay; loss of freedoms, the demise of habeas corpus, indefinite detentions, the elimination of cash, though the USD will be the last one to go that route.
-Private real estate lenders pulling back entirely, leaving investors high and dry

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here

-The Fed has acted swiftly since my last podcast on Sunday. Since Monday morning, the Fed slashed rates by 100 bps to effective 0%, announced unlimited Treasury and agency mortgage purchases, and become primary lender and liquidity provider to corporations.
-The Fed balance sheet should hit $6 trillion over the next few weeks. Given the upcoming $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package, the Fed balance sheet could hit $10 trillion by the end of the year.
-The Fed announced they may begin to buy bond ETFs to stabilize bond markets and yields going forward.
-The central planners knew the USDX was rising too high and announced that the Fed would act first with their monetary programs. While these Fed initiatives are dollar bearish, the USDX continues to remain elevated. The ECB and BOJ remain relatively taciturn, but also need to act more forcefully than currently.
-As long as bond yields fall and inflation growth sinks, the Fed could theoretically buy every asset available.
-Bernanke making a case for Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act to be changed to include corporate securities and state and local debt.
-Keep in mind that 30-year mortgage rates could hit 2.5% by end of year. Those who are hoping for a residential real estate collapse may be disappointed.
-I would have to believe that stocks may be subject to official intervention here.