Watch out below! Blowoff spike in UST yields has begun

A dire warning to the reader; it’s all about the yield curve

•Given recent fiscal circumstances and current Fed policy I submit to you that we are in the most lopsided of financial market circumstances in human history.

•The blowoff spike in long-dated UST yields has begun.

•Be the borrower, not the lender. Thus, money is relatively cheap as bond yields have been suppressed. This suppression has come to an end.

•Stay away from bonds. Keep your money in overnight paper only. Stocks could tank on a sharp reversal.

•A casual observer may intuitively conclude that the dollar will tank as the Federal government goes bankrupt seemingly on purpose. But what if there is no other safe haven? What if the usual safe haven assets can no longer be relied upon?

•Most in high positions of power in the American government and military are now one-worlders and eagerly look forward to this catastrophe as a way to end American dominance in foreign affairs.

•These leaders were bred and conditioned in their education from a very young age. This conditioning began in preschool and continued all the way through their graduate university degrees. It continually gets reinforced as globalists move up the ladder and receive the fat paychecks.

•Many of these Americans in high positions of government and the military hierarchies actually hate Americans, especially Caucasians, and are forbidden from revealing their true intentions.

•I base these conclusions solely on the actions of these politicians and military leaders. Most people are completely unable to recognize the true enemies. There’s no stupidity with this ongoing crisis, only calculated execution as we march towards 2030 and the Great Reset.

This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper

•The trends toward insolvency have accelerated.

•The government will need a crisis similar in scope to the manufactured COVID-19 pandemic to help manage its budget spending and push yields back down.

•My overall sentiment drastically changed after the federal government announced it would need to borrow at least $1 trillion this quarter versus its previous estimate of little more than $700 billion.

•The sharp reversal and acceleration to insolvency is absolutely mind blowing and I’m still trying to wrap my mind around these numbers. I believe all of the financial markets are in complete denial and have yet to digest this sudden shock. Those in office at the federal level seem intentionally determined to bankrupt the government.

The US Treasury boosted the size of its quarterly bond sales for the first time in 2 1/2 years to help finance a surge in budget deficits so alarming it prompted Fitch Ratings to cut the government’s AAA credit rating a day earlier.

US Ramps Up Debt Issuance, Adding Fuel to Selloff in Treasuries, Bloomberg

The next crisis is coming SOON!

Gird your loins for the next crisis.

•The directed mRNA bioweapon injections response to COVID-19 was manufactured to help unveil the pale horse.

•The over-the-top financial and fiscal responses to this manufactured pandemic, with its subsequent existential FED blunder that allowed dovish policy to prevail for two years longer than it should have has now helped to unleash the black horse.

•Unless the Fed completely reversed course, the powers will have to engineer another terrible crisis to use as a catalyst to “force” the Fed’s hand.

•Unless we get another ostensibly unrelated manufactured crisis out of left field, the next catastrophe will be financial and will directly affect all of us in a very profound and everlasting way. It could happen very soon.

Related Posts

70 thoughts on “Watch out below! Blowoff spike in UST yields has begun

  1. A weak AUD is not helping reduce Australian CPI…

    Key statistics
    •The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% this quarter.

    •Over the twelve months to the June 2023 quarter, the CPI rose 6.0%.

    •The most significant price rises were Rents (+2.5%), International holiday travel and accommodation (+6.2%), Other financial services (+2.5%), and New dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.0%).

    1. Great Britain data looked great earlier this morning…

      GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.1%

      GDP (YoY) (Q2)
      Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.2%

      GDP (MoM) (Jun)
      Act: 0.5% Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.1%

      GDP (YoY) (Jun)
      Act: 0.9% Cons: 0.5% Prev: -0.3%

      Index of Services
      Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.0%

      Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
      Act: 0.7% Cons: -1.1% Prev: -2.1%

      Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
      Act: 1.8% Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.6%

      Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jun)
      Act: 3.1% Cons: 0.3% Prev: -0.6%

      Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)
      Act: 2.4% Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.1%

      Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jun)
      Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.1%

      Trade Balance (Jun)
      Act: -15.46B Cons: -16.40B Prev: -18.41B

      Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun)
      Act: -2.77B Cons: -6.39B Prev: -6.62B

    2. Euro area inflation data as well as the US PPI coming in hotter than expected. Good luck trying to wring out that last bit of inflation down to the Fed target.

      Core PPI (YoY) (Jul)
      Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.3% Prev: 2.4%

      Core PPI (MoM) (Jul)
      Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.1%

      PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jul)
      Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.1%

      PPI (MoM) (Jul)
      Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.0%

      PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jul)
      Act: 2.7% Cons: Prev: 2.7%

      PPI (YoY) (Jul)
      Act: 0.8% Cons: 0.7% Prev: 0.2%

  2. Data points this morning look good for price inflation and the Fed. Only Real Earnings comes in hotter. Jobless claims also helps the Fed to stay on the sidelines this time around.

    Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)
    Act: 4.7% Cons: 4.8% Prev: 4.8%

    Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
    Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.2%

    Core CPI Index (Jul)
    Act: 308.80 Cons: 308.33 Prev: 308.31

    CPI (MoM) (Jul)
    Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.2%

    CPI (YoY) (Jul)
    Act: 3.2% Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.0%

    Real Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
    Act: 0.0% Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.6%

    Initial Jobless Claims
    Act: 248K Cons: 230K Prev: 227K

    Continuing Jobless Claims
    Act: 1,684K Cons: 1,710K Prev: 1,692K

    Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
    Act: 231.00K Cons: 231.01K Prev: 228.25K

    1. I do no think any next crisis will affect US as much as other weaker parts of this highly leveraged and indebted world.

      As far as the US Dollar continues to be the Reserve Currency and the US has still lots of energy resources to keep the machine going, it makes for a way a stronger and favorable position for the US than other parts of the “Developed World” that have to scramble for foreign money, credit and energy.

      1. I agree. I think it’s better here in the states until war for Americans, especially whites. Just have enough money to pay the bills. For most white expats the real reason for leaving was the high cost of living. For the others, America has made it easy for you. Liberal policy and largesse allows non-whites and sexual deviants to feel right at home in a country their people didn’t found. That’s why they flood the borders and appear in all the ads.

        If I were just watching the advertisements I would think blacks made up 60% of the population and whites made 20%.

        Not a mistake.

  3. MarketWatch
    A $1.8 trillion wall of corporate debt coming due could cost jobs, Goldman warns
    45 minutes ago
    Corporations are likely to feel the bite of higher rates as an estimate $1.8 trillion of corporate debt matures in the next two years, which could cost jobs, according to Goldman Sachs.

    For each additional $1 dollar of interest expense, firms cut capital expenditures by 10 cents and labor costs by 20 cents, Goldman Sachs says

    Big corporations aren’t likely to avoid the bite of higher interest rates forever, particularly with an estimated $1.8 trillion of U.S. corporate debt coming due in the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs.

    That also means companies could start cutting jobs and rolling out other belt-tightening measures.

    Corporations needing to refinance existing maturing debt at today’s higher rates would face higher debt costs. Goldman’s economics team, led by Jan Hatzius, expect a 2% increase in interest expenses for corporations in 2024 and a 5.5% jump in 2025, according to a new client note.

    They also found that a bigger burden in terms of interest payments typically translates to cuts in labor costs and capital expenditures, based on an analysis of data from public companies since 1965.

    “We find that for each additional dollar of interest expense, firms lower their capital expenditures by 10 cents and labor costs by 20 cents, about half of which comes from reduced employment and half of which comes through lower wages,” the team wrote in a Sunday evening note.

    With that backdrop, they see a potential 5,000-jobs drag on monthly payrolls growth in 2024 and a 10,000 drag in 2025.

    Like homeowners, many big U.S. businesses were part of a pandemic borrowing blitz that helped lock in low, fixed rates, while also providing shelter from the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign in the past 16 months.

    But since companies typically stagger their debt maturities for the cheapest possible overall borrowing costs, it also means a growing amount comes due through 2026.

    At the same time, Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer, although some economists anticipate cuts to arrive next spring.

    A part of the problem has been a surprisingly resilient labor market keeping inflation elevated and the economy humming, despite fears that the Fed’s rapid pace or rate hikes would trigger a recession.

    Fresh labor-market data points to the economy adding 187,000 job in July, a sign that hiring may be slowing, but with wages steady at a 4.4% annual rate and unemployment retreating to 3.5% from 3.6%. Federal officials want to see yearly wage gains of 3% or less.

    Confidence in a soft landing has been growing even as cracks in credit have emerged, particularly for borrowers with floating-rate debt.

    In a sign of potentially more stress to come, Trucking company Yellow Corp. on Monday filed for Chapter 11 protection, blaming “bullying” by Teamsters. The company received a $700 million pandemic bailout from the government when it was known as YRC Worldwide Inc., including loans with floating-rate debt due in September 2024.

  4. Be the borrower, not the lender….

    Goldman Sachs Sells $2.75 Billion of Bonds Ahead of CPI

    3 hours ago
    (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised fresh debt in the US investment-grade bond market, the latest issuer to tap investors after Fitch Ratings cut the country’s credit score and ahead of key inflation data later this week.

    The bank sold $2.75 billion of bonds in two parts, according to a person familiar with the matter. The $2.25 billion fixed-to-floating rate tranche will yield 1.03 percentage points above Treasuries, after initial price discussions suggested 1.25 points. The bonds are noncallable for two years and mature in three years, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the details are private.

    Goldman was among at least nine borrowers to come to market Monday, following the six issuers that sold fresh debt in the days following Fitch’s rating action. Also, borrowers might look to get deals done before the latest reading of the consumer price index — due on Thursday — which is leading the market to weigh a potential pause to rate increases in September.

    Activity in the primary market kicked off with a number of banks announcing debt deals overnight, including BNP Paribas, which became the first European bank to sell additional tier 1 notes in US dollars since the writedown of Credit Suisse securities. AT1 bonds are a kind of hybrid security that helps banks bolster capital to meet regulations designed to prevent a failure.

    Thermo Fisher Scientific and Caterpillar Financial are among the issuers in the market Monday, where a combined $14.5 billion is expected to price. Dealers’ estimates for the week call for around $30 billion of new issuance.

    Representatives for Goldman Sachs, BNP, Caterpillar Financial and Thermo Fisher declined to comment.

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

  5. All publicity is good publicity. All of the attention that Donald Trump receives drains the power of the Republican party, so that worthy presidential contenders and their campaign ideas are marginalized.

    Though a practical candidate like Ron DeSantis, if given the proper exposure, can easily beat any Democrat proffered, he’s essentially forgotten about As Trump steals the limelight. Trump may not even know what’s going on, but the powers are keeping him front and center for a reason.

    While the dumbed-down Patriots who listen to Alex Jones support Donald Trump, the NWO and Great Reset march on towards their completion with absolutely no resistance. If you resist, you’re an antisemite and racist. Mix it up!😀😀😀

    Trump is unelectable and though he has become a martyr for the right, any stooge that the Democrats prop up for the presidential election will win and continue to guarantee communist doctrine and central government largesse.

    The synagogue purchased Trump’s debt on several occasions over the decades and the Mr “Warp Speed injection man” is still out there remaining relevant, because the press has dictated it.

    Joel Skousen calls independent thinkers like we are “unthinking conservatives”, but he continues to miss the boat on this whole Trump dynamic. He’s stuck in his linear logic and I think he’s now too old and too isolated to stand back and see the larger picture. I’m not renewing his subscription. I think he’s too isolated in his Utah bunker.

    1. I think that the powers in control want the Democrats in complete control. This is why Trump is being pumped up in the media. Trump definitely will not become president again even if he does get more than 50% of the legitimate votes. Also Trump’s toxicity is becoming the face of the Republican Party and therefore making all the Republicans very toxic.

      Robert F Kennedy Jr is the democrat’s last back up if their other candidates really stumble and fall.He is their long shot last back up.I see another possibility of Biden stepping down and Harris will take over and then she chooses Newsom as VP and Newsom ultimately becomes President as she steps aside. If Newsom stumbles then RFK Jr will be pumped up.

      I also think RFK Jr will also be used to siphon off a lot of moderate republicans to vote for him in the democratic primary and therefore leave all the Trump supporters voting for Trump in the Republican primary.

      Regardless, I am sad to say that the Democrats will be in complete control after 2024 to bring the USA into the NWO beast system.

    2. The 60th presidential election on November 5, 2024. The winnder will be sworn into office on January 20, 2025. I’d say we have until next year around Oct-Jan for something to happen, although they don’t have to wait. I am thinking they are keeping the Hollywood production Ukraine wargame hoax going until then for a specific reason:

      Nuke explosion hoax.

      The recent Canada fires with smoke going all the way to the Southern USA was a test to see if they can make a fake nuke explosion convincing. Instead of the media reporting fires in Canada it will be a hyped up as an attack and Nuke explosion. Yet there wont really be an actual explosion, it will be fake and just reported as one.

      That way they can 100% shut everything down, with no essential services. It will be blamed on Russia. Then after 4 or 5 months everything will be reset including the financial apparatus. CBDC’s and all the draconian policies will be put into play.

      )——>BOOM! <——(

    3. Ever since I stepped back from taking political sides life has been better. This happened probably two decades ago and it’s amazing what can be seen once you toss all the political theatrics into the scrap bin.

      The crowds between political candidates and sports people is interchangeable and I have to wonder if that’s the reason sports is so much in everyone’s face as if it were a cult. The establishment must keep that competitive mindset going at all costs.

      Team toxic Trump vs. team commie Obama. DeSantis vs. Biden. Each camp will hold onto their hero like their life depends on it. But I ask the question. In the roughly 50 years of a two opposing party system, has life become better? Are fuel and electricity prices lower? And so on…. As Evans says, the only winners are those who own the assets. Long gone are the days of fair market competition because one finance group may own many companies. Companies as seen by us that are in direct competition are in fact are owned by the same group of money grubbers.

      Regarding your Skousen comment. It seems what sours you about him is indeed a sign of being a “thinking conservative” who does not follow one particular information outlet. In my experience people get sucked in to a particular personality and tend to stay with them. See above explanation of sports teams. Skousen may be losing his fan base and the reaction is to disparage those who stop and rethink exactly who they were following. You are either on board and we love you or you get off the train and we throw rocks at you. No such thing as respecting an opposing view. A thinking person is one who can process the mounds of information while remaining grounded in truth. Our only ally must be truth. And Christ is the only truth that was revealed to mankind. May the Holy Spirit guide us to the truth.

      Noting the reaction and response to past events really helps to sort out the BS. What story is being pushed on google? And ask why. The covid timeline was highly suspicious to me. From deadly disease to a cure in record time. It was like watching a horror movie that went from disaster to a happy ending in 2.5 hrs. I wasn’t buying it. That does not mean to say I believe covid was fake and pray for those who suffered.

      Some of the best examples of group think was when Trump was in office. We had all sorts of stuff come out of the woodwork and hour long infomercials discussing how corrupt the established monetary system was (is). I will say that 90% of the messages had truth (or no one would stick with them) but in the end – literally, the end of the infomercial – Trump was propped up as the savior. I now remember it was the Q phenomenon. I just looked at those who insisted I watch it with an open mind (and I did) and gave my final review that this is nothing but a commercial for Trump and immediately dismissed it as BS. And of course the secret gov’t plot to financially enslave the world was busted by Q and put on youtube? God help us sort out this flawed world.

  6. The federal government and the Fed keep pushing the narrative that they need to keep priming the fiscal pump in order to avoid a recession. But there is no recession imminent nor has there ever been since covid. They have investors chasing ghosts, so they can scare the crap out of them to print more money and consolidate the economy around higher federal government largesse. Avoid bonds and stick to income generating assets. Though bonds generate income, it’s not nearly enough and borrowers continue to be subsidized. You’ll avoid a lot of unnecessary heartache.

    Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — August 01, 2023

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.9 percent on August 1, up from 3.5 percent on July 28. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 5.2 percent.

    1. I have the easy answer why the economy stays out of recession; if the federal government decreased spending to only slightly above pre-covid levels and increases in spending were only based on CPI, real GDP would be about -2 to -3% yoy. That’s much lower than current growth rates.

      1. I’m looking at the economic data from around the world, and unless I’m not reading things correctly, if the governments weren’t stepping up their massive deficit stimulus spending, the economies around the world would be exhibiting negative growth. I suspect that the covid injections are having their desired effect and the masses are increasingly getting sicker.

      2. I feel the U.S. government and other world governments will keep increasing their spending to conceal the negative effects of the elevated death rates from the Covid clot shots. Inflation is here to stay.

        1. Just thinking out loud here, but perhaps the plan going out to 2030 is to completely devastate the private sector and its borrowing capabilities, while the public sector continues to crowd out everything else by its borrowing needs. Perhaps by 2030 the central governments will control everything due to their being The last man standing.

          While the organic economy collapses over time due to the MRNA injections and the higher morbidity and mortality rates, the Western Nations continue to receive waves of low-level immigrants and the governments continue to consolidate their wealth and power over the masses. Of course the governments are just customer service Windows of the SOS and the power of the holy people will have been scattered.

          Death is very profitable and those who own assets with low leverage will continue separating themselves from the heathen.

          1. The equity markets have not been responding well ever since the US Treasury announced a roughly $300 billion dollar increase in borrowing needs, which now stands at least $1 trillion for the quarter versus the prior estimate of $700 billion.

            Mix it up and enjoy your iron and clay! Do what your heart says! Give into your lusts! God is gone from the mind of the people! Freedom at last!

  7. Foreigners don’t want them, so dummy entities for the Fed and the feds as well as pensions are buying them. A 4.1% yield on a 10-year UST is no longer a “safe, high yield” despite what the article implies. This is especially true as the Trump distraction ensures a fractured and attenuated Republican party in 2024, so Democrats can keep the White House and continue spending with continued higher than expected inflation. Watch issuance estimates continue to play catch up to reality.

    When mainstream continue to proclaim “safe, high yields” on USTs that’s equivalent to claiming the COVID injections are “safe and effective.”
    Who is buying all the Treasury auctions? Domestic funds got a record share, but another deluge is coming.
    18 hours ago

    •A record 76% share of July’s Treasury auctions went to domestic investment funds, according to Oxford Economics. Here’s what to know about a lot more supply coming.

    BMO’s Yung-Yu Ma isn’t worried about a lack of appetite for the deluge of coming Treasurys with safe, higher yields

    The recent deluge of Treasurys sold at auction has gone mostly to domestic investment funds, according to Oxford Economics.

    Domestic funds snapped up about 76% of July’s Treasury auction supply, marking the fourth straight month in a row of a record share, according to an Oxford tally, while foreign allotments have been weaker.

    “Investment funds have been the primary, and growing, source of demand for Treasury coupon auctions, particularly since auction sizes began to decline in late 2021,” said John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.

    “But the main question mark for the market’s ability to absorb the increased Treasury coupon issuance will be whether or not the increasing demand from domestic investment funds continues.”

    Treasury bill issuance is expected to total $728 billion in the third quarter, and $402 billion in the fourth-quarter, according to a forecast by BofA Global’s rates team on Friday. That’s largely to help refill the Treasury cash account run low by the long debt-ceiling battle.

    The tally would put issuance for the second half of 2023 at $1.13 trillion, a huge amount but also a bit below the Treasury’s $1.3 trillion forecast, according to BofA Global.

    Appetite for safe, high-yields

    “I think it will be digested relatively well,” said BMO Wealth Management’s Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer, in a phone interview, adding that U.S. rates versus other developed countries remain high.

    “I think there is quite large appetite for safe, high-yield debt, and short-term Treasury securities certainly offer a nice yield.”

    Bigger moves have been seen this week in the 10-year Treasury yield, BX:TMUBMUSD10Y which briefly traded above 4.2%, marching higher in the wake of Fitch stripping the U.S. of its top AAA rating, and a $1 trillion funding estimate from the Treasury for the third quarter.

    “The 10-year above 4% is telling us there’s some stickiness to the upside for rates,” BMO’s Ma said. “I think rangebound is good,” he said, adding that a 3.8% to 4.2% range for the 10-year yield probably works well for equities, but a big drop in the benchmark yield could signal greater economic weakness.

    Stocks were higher Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP remained on pace for weekly declines, according to FactSet.

    Bigger picture, a recession isn’t something Ma thinks is likely. “We were talking about a soft landing when it was very unpopular,” he said. “The elements of a soft landing should still be in place because the labor market is providing a buffer from Fed interest rates.”

  8. Precious metals and gemstones would not be a good investment when bond rates are trending up. However, I plan on staying in stocks and rental real estate as they produce income which would go up in an inflationary scenario. I find inflation a much more likely outcome than deflation as politics and governments will do everything in their means to stop deflation.
    I think income producing assets are much more preferable than assets like gold, silver, and gemstones that do not generate income. I still keep a small portion in precious metals as it is great for keeping wealth under the radar. Fixed income assets like bonds will be losers as they will go down in value when interest rates trend up. If you want to invest in Bonds, I would look for variable rate bonds and short duration bonds.

    1. The alt media really beats people over the head to hold gold and such. Perhaps this is a way to keep them from buying up income generating assets? A while back I made the realization about bitcoin and how so many went for it shortly after 2009. I brought this up to Evans and he replied that the timing of BC was auspicious. He further commented that it kept people out of the severely discounted housing market and that’s what got me thinking about gold and such. While I don’t fully understand all the financial info on this page, every now and then a bit of info comes through loud and clear. I certainly appreciate the unbiased insight from out host.

      Regarding sore of wealth, I’m a classic car enthusiast and many people I know tend to keep classics for that reason. One guy was buying them up when prices were low (post 08) and is now reselling some. On one hand I should have kept one of those cars I sold him and resold it today, but on the other I used that money to remodel a small industrial building prior to selling it for more than I paid. Another wealthy friend said he can replace the cash (because he has many rental properties) but it will be difficult to find an original triple black big block 4 speed whatever.

      I have a few cars and keep them because I like them. The good news is they are not depreciating and some of these cars I have owned for a log time. The ones that are running I drive regularly and don’t often consider that I’m driving a unique car that can likely sell for $50K tomorrow.

      As far as income generating assets? I’m it. My business model is to repair equipment that few understand how to repair properly. I’m not rolling in money like my few competitors but my work is better (as told by end users). So I just try to keep focus on providing these repairs better than the competition.

  9. Not a huge deal, but employment data a little weaker, while wages grew more than expectations. Canadian wages rose 5.0% yoy.

    Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
    Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.4%

    Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jul)
    Act: 4.4% Cons: 4.2% Prev: 4.4%

    Average Weekly Hours (Jul)
    Act: 34.3 Cons: 34.4 Prev: 34.4

    Government Payrolls (Jul)
    Act: 15.0K Cons: Prev: 57.0K

    Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul)
    Act: -2K Cons: 5K Prev: 6K

    Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
    Act: 187K Cons: 200K Prev: 185K

    Participation Rate (Jul)
    Act: 62.6% Cons: 62.6% Prev: 62.6%

    Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
    Act: 172K Cons: 179K Prev: 128K

    U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul)
    Act: 6.7% Cons: 6.8% Prev: 6.9%

    Unemployment Rate (Jul)
    Act: 3.5% Cons: 3.6% Prev: 3.6%

    CAD Avg hourly wages Permanent employee (Jul)
    Act: 5.0% Cons: Prev: 3.9%

  10. Thank you for keeping up the website and for your insightful posts. Godspeed to you sir. There are loyal followers of yours who appreciate your work. KEEP IT UP!!

    Just a comment and observation:
    1) there are “rumors” of a “climate emergency” world wide lockdown, like the covid lockdown, coming in the second quarter of 2024. Forest fires were purposely started in Canada and Direct Energy Weapons (DEW) used to ignite them …..resulting in 10 million acres of forest loss. It was all blamed on global warming and the gullible Canadian public believed it. Travel restrictions are being planned for next year. We will see what unfolds.
    2) Another rumor is the CBDC is being released in late 2024 before the USA Federal election – to cause panic. We will see. For us believers in Christ, our anthem is Isaiah 44:2a…..”do not fear”.

  11. I’ve been trying to get a trading account going to gain some capital. So you see stocks starting to turn bearish? Do you see real estate prices staying elevated? I’ve also been looking to execute your orders to relocate and I have a couple properties with some equity in them. Are you able give any specifics on what this crisis might look like and any new advice to navigate it?

    Thanks for the advice over the years I have relied on it. May God protect the remnant.

    1. The only thing I know right now is that bonds are not good investments here. I believe there is a repricing right now, given the new federal government spending factors. Stay away from bonds. I am short bonds, but will not recommend that to others as it can be very volatile.

      As for stocks and real estate, I am not adjusting my view yet. The rise in long dated yields is a linear consequence of what’s in front of us.

      As for asset values, if the Fed and government face a crisis of confidence we could continue to see a “redemption” of dollars into asset, including stocks and residential real estate. The recent upswing in stocks and RE the past couple months is all to do with the brokered debt deal as I concluded when the deal was announced.

      Once we know why asset prices are climbing, we can make more confident decisions. While rising longer dated yields are now rising it’s from a drop in confidence of the public sector and Fed as well.

      Be careful about being an outright bear on stocks and real estate. What happens if the powers engineer another crisis? What happens if the Fed decides to modify it’s course? All bets are off.

    2. As for what the crisis will look like, I do not yet know. The only thing I can see in front of me is a federal government that can no longer restrain itself. I look at the Biden regime for instance and its insistence on forgiving student loan debt. Given the fiscal albatross, I find this as being willful. I look at all of the “wasted” money being spent on all sorts of environmental and military initiatives and have to conclude that most of the people in positions of high power are encouraging America’s demise.

      The multiracial objectives, the open borders policies, the medical catastrophes that are growing, the march toward a global conflict, and the wanton fiscal profligacy, are all coming together at the worst time for the unwashed. For those in the know, at least we understand and can make decisions accordingly. There is no ambiguity for we know why all of this is transpiring now. Own the assets. For a perspective and a glimpse into the future of the Western world, look to Argentina.

      I cannot tell you what the next crisis will be, but if there isn’t any that is manufactured beforehand, the manufactured interest rate and debt crisis will be the doozy that will change our lives forever. There is a tableau being established that is intentionally transferring the wealth from the public sector to the private sector, as Dalio says, and those with the assets are benefiting the most. The more assets we own the more money we make. While someone like me can do fine during this process, imagine the wealthiest in the world and how much power and wealth they are now accumulating as we march toward Federal insolvency and the NWO.

      If no manufactured crisis is created, this fiscal crisis will emerge by 2025, according to my estimation, which looks at the current trajectory that seems to be accelerating.

      1. Page 48 of Alan Watts “Cutting through, Vol 1” has a Zodiac chart listing the different ages.

        According to his research we enter the Aquarian age on 20Jan2025. Whatever that means, its “their” system not mine.

        1. We all remember the song? Here is some interesting info about it. Clips below from the link.

          “That hit song, “Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In,” gushes about the world arriving at the “dawning of the Age of Aquarius,” which became a rallying cry and badge of honor for the youth-led cultural revolution where members touted a new age of peace, love and light beyond the then-current Age of Pisces.”

          “The dawning of a new age, especially one linked with the most free thinking of the zodiac signs, just sounds cool and important, even if today many astrologers dispute whether we’ve entered the Age of Aquarius. Theories of that arrival range from 2062 to beyond the year 2525 (if man is still alive). The International Astronomical Union, which standardized the boundaries of constellations in 1930, and such renowned astronomers as Jean Meeus of Belgium say the March equinox will cross over into the constellation Aquarius (the dawning of Aquarius) around 2597.”

          The 60s was the defining period in the US for culture change. It was about “turn on, tune in, drop out” and people went for it big time. I certainly enjoy the music and the cars that were created in the 60s and 70s but thank God I never fell in with the crowd or that thinking. Zero drugs ever and I enjoy wine and spirits in moderation.

          1. Yes, I also know about that. My crazy mother-in-law waxes about it all the time and its nauseating. That “Age of Aquarius” appears to be a counterfeit utopia created for the profane boomers. Possibly to get buy-in for the Aquarian age program that will be attempted.

            What I am hopeful of is that their plans are in alignment with divine will (crazy, I know) or that ultimately divine will asserts itself.

            1. Indeed. It’s the age that signals our liberation from God and the Bible. It’s a hedonistic false dawn. Say goodbye to all the societal constructs that restrained our wants and desires. Now we can live according to our desires (and lusts).

      2. I read an article years ago about an architect trying to get by in Argentina during the run away inflation or the 90’s and 00’s. (I can’t find it anymore) My big take away from that article was that he wasn’t really concerned with Investments or even housing. Food and security were where most of his energy was spent. It seemed he had real assets if my memory serves me. He spend at least half of the article discussing different fire arms and there merits and body armor but wasn’t a gun nut and loathed the fact it was a necessity to transact business for security reasons. Life in runaway inflation is no fun. Deflation is alot easier for the average plebe to handle I figure. There are multitudes of reasons why inflation is needed but at its core is the bittering up of the populace for the new system they have in mind.

    1. They are essentially custodians and transfer agents for the real owners. Who are they? Who owns the multilayered blind trusts and other account holdings? First, it’s deferred money like retirement and pension investments. The second is the SoS and other trillionaires.

      My advice to people who are concerned about these nominee holders is to own your stocks in your name and not in street name. Don’t contribute to a pension. Someone else will vote for the stockholder and those who have money contributed. Based on the behavior of the publicly traded firms lately, people who are voting the proxies do not have our interests in mind.


    Money Market Fund Assets
    Washington, DC; August 3, 2023—Total money market fund assets1 increased by $28.95 billion to $5.52 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, August 2, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Among taxable money market funds, government funds2 increased by $22.65 billion and prime funds increased by $3.52 billion. Tax-exempt money market funds increased by $2.78 billion.

    1. A long way to go. I suspect the FED needs to unwind as much as possible, as quickly as possible, before the next crisis emerges….

      Federal Reserve Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level
      2023-08-02: 8,206,764 | Millions of U.S. Dollars | Weekly,
      As of Wednesday | Updated: 3:34 PM CDT

  13. Hard not to share that sentiment. COP27 is the next agenda on the Globalist menu. 27 BC Julius Caesar was Assimilated and the Roman Empire began. The SOS seems to pridefully broadcast there intentions with anagrams, inversions, numerology and double meanings to their program names and endeavors. I can’t help but think 2027 is the year of a big geopolitical move on there part. COP 27 kinda says it all. Sounds very martial law like. Than 2033 after that.

  14. Why do you think Christ will appear xenophobic or racist? Scripture says that those of every tongue will be around God’s throne.

    I’m looking forward to the end – I’m sick of this world. It’s now uninhabitable IMO.

    1. Jesus is the Kinsman Redeemer of His people. His people are the Israelites. The others have no everlasting life. It is based on race. This is why the Caucasian race has been set up for genocide.

      Matthew 15:24

      “But he answered and said, I am not sent but unto the lost sheep of the house of Israel.”
      King James Version (KJV)

      1. I do not think it is based on race. How rude would it be to tell Black christians that have given a large amount of their lives to worship, believeing with all their heart Jesus died on the cross for mankind’s sins and will one day return to save them. Also included are white people with mixed cultures. Too many people of the Christian faith that aren’t pure white caucasians.

    2. I am with you Reader. The world is quickly becoming an uninhabitable toilet bowl in both the spiritual and physical sense. Satan has free and complete reign of this world, however, only for a short time.

      That is why everybody who hates this world and hates their life should read the Holy Bible and follow the words of Jesus Christ. Jesus speaks on behalf of the heavenly father who wants to save us. We will be a small remnant though.

      1. In contrast, those who love the ways of this world and love their life will soon be dazed and confused and in a terrible tizzy. They will be helpless in the coming end times. These end times will be VERY unpleasant for all of us. We will see and experience events that have not happened since the days of Noah. I cannot describe the events as they will be so unimaginable for most of us. You may want to read articles or watch videos of Christians who have seen visions from the Lord of what the coming end times will look and feel like.

      2. I can’t tell you the things I hear from family and things I’m enduring with the ungodly people in this world. The spiritual attacks have been bad. I honestly hope things end at any time now – I have no love of this world. It’s as if the bottomless pit has opened and all the demons have been loosed. God help us.

        1. The demons have been loosed. Project Bluebeam is misdirection. The alien invasion that the SoS is prepping us for is not from a bunch of aliens or fallen devils, and it’s not a staged affair, it’s for the advent of the holy angels, Moses, Elijah, Enoch (whichever will be the two witnesses), and Jesus himself. The world will look to these true saviors as being spawned from the devil and will hate these “invaders” and will wage war against them. That’s a big reason why the DoD Pentagram under Trump initiated the US Space Force.

          The fallen ones are already here walking this planet and guiding circumstances to their biblical conclusion according to the prophecies this blog enumerates often.

          Jesus, please help the remnant as well as the readers of this blog, and please come soon!

          1. Revelation 11:3-13 KJV –

            3 And I will give power unto my two witnesses, and they shall prophesy a thousand two hundred and threescore days, clothed in sackcloth.

            4 These are the two olive trees, and the two candlesticks standing before the God of the earth.

            5 And if any man will hurt them, fire proceedeth out of their mouth, and devoureth their enemies: and if any man will hurt them, he must in this manner be killed.

            6 These have power to shut heaven, that it rain not in the days of their prophecy: and have power over waters to turn them to blood, and to smite the earth with all plagues, as often as they will.

            7 And when they shall have finished their testimony, the beast that ascendeth out of the bottomless pit shall make war against them, and shall overcome them, and kill them.

            8 And their dead bodies shall lie in the street of the great city, which spiritually is called Sodom and Egypt, where also our Lord was crucified.

            9 And they of the people and kindreds and tongues and nations shall see their dead bodies three days and an half, and shall not suffer their dead bodies to be put in graves.

            10 And they that dwell upon the earth shall rejoice over them, and make merry, and shall send gifts one to another; because these two prophets tormented them that dwelt on the earth.

            11 And after three days and an half the Spirit of life from God entered into them, and they stood upon their feet; and great fear fell upon them which saw them.

            12 And they heard a great voice from heaven saying unto them, Come up hither. And they ascended up to heaven in a cloud; and their enemies beheld them.

            13 And the same hour was there a great earthquake, and the tenth part of the city fell, and in the earthquake were slain of men seven thousand: and the remnant were affrighted, and gave glory to the God of heaven.

            You and I will have to endure hardships on this planet until the two witnesses are called up in the ascension to the clouds. Verse 13 says the remnant will be witnessing these events first hand.

    3. God made the different peoples and races for a reason. It was a defense against creating a global government. Up until now, a world government was impossible. Like people should have their own nations. Endtime Babylon is based on all races being together and mixing, which is largely based on the lusts of the people created by suggestions in the media, movies, shows, and advertising.

      It’s a weak matrix fortified by an extremely powerful governmental and bullying media structure. It’s the iron and clay kingdom described in Daniel.

      Last time I read the Bible, God hates it. He knows the hearts of the people and the force powering it.

      1. Excellent reply Mr. Evans.
        God the Father established the nations and national boundaries for the proclamation of the Gospel message and for the refutation of global governance. Multiculturalism, woke doctrine are anathema to God’s directives to the nations.
        Thank you.

  15. You said we shouldn’t buy stocks and keep money in overnight paper? Do you still think Fidelity investments would be safe? I’m running a marathon trying to learn financial wisdom for these times.

    It appears that the next ‘crisis’ may be an ‘alien’ invasion, Dengue, Ebola, or other infection. They released Aedes mosquitos apparently in multiple areas. They’re large, striped, and aggressive. Artemesinin good to keep on hand just in case.

    What do you believe the financial blow will be?

    1. One thing I know for sure; I am not buying nor holding any bonds (>10 year duration). I have been telling anyone who asked to hold any cash and money devoted to bonds in overnight or short-term paper. That’s less than a year or two. Preferably in MM funds.

      The outlook for other assets is up for speculation. A loss of confidence could cause other assets to continue rising. Stocks and RE, for instance could climb with double digit bond yields. If high bond yields are caused by a loss of confidence more than from inflation a race for assets in exchange for ever softer dollars could prevail.

    2. As for Fidelity investments, I am not concerned about its solvency. That is not an issue. The banks and such are okay. Just continue staying out of bonds and fixed income instruments other than MM funds.

      1. Thanks. Fidelity is supposed to be insured but I’m shaky about everything right now.

        Do you have any speculation on when the next ‘crisis’ will hit? I was watching I Pet Goat decoded on BitChute and it looks like September 23 something is to happen. (If I got the date right but I’m older now and memory doesn’t always get it right)

        I’m wondering how we can even prepare for the next assault. I’m very tired.

        *can’t post without entering email

        1. As for the timing, it’s all about the yield curve. When the yield curve goes positive (or normal) anything is fair game. At that point, whatever crisis occurs, it will quickly shift yields lower and will enable the Fed to buy up Treasuries to add to its balance sheet. Thus, QE can also survive during crisis. Low inflation and fiscal prudence are no longer available to keep QE going. The government can stay in business as long as people are getting sick and dropping dead in the streets.

  16. This morning’s data dump. Not bad for inflation. However, the ISM non-manufacturing price data read was much higher than consensus. That is not a good indicator.

    Continuing Jobless Claims
    Act: 1,700K Cons: 1,700K Prev: 1,679K

    Initial Jobless Claims
    Act: 227K Cons: 227K Prev: 221K

    Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
    Act: 228.25K Cons: 235.63K Prev: 233.75K

    Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
    Act: 3.7% Cons: 2.0% Prev: -1.2%

    Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)
    Act: 1.6% Cons: 2.6% Prev: 3.3%

    S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul)
    Act: 52.0 Cons: 52.0 Prev: 53.2

    Services PMI (Jul)
    Act: 52.3 Cons: 52.4 Prev: 54.4

    Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun)
    Act: 6.0% Cons: Prev: 6.2%

    Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jun)
    Act: 0.5% Cons: Prev: 0.6%

    Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)
    Act: 2.3% Cons: 2.2% Prev: 0.4%

    Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Jun)
    Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.4% Prev: -0.4%

    ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Jul)
    Act: 57.1 Cons: 57.2 Prev: 59.2

    ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul)
    Act: 50.7 Cons: 51.1 Prev: 53.1

    ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Jul)
    Act: 55.0 Cons: 55.6 Prev: 55.5

    ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
    Act: 52.7 Cons: 53.0 Prev: 53.9

    ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul)
    Act: 56.8 Cons: 52.1 Prev: 54.1

  17. Very well written article. I really appreciate your unadulterated insight. I feel this fitch downgrade of US Treasury rating is a temporal marker of bigger things to come. The Synagogue of Satan needs another crisis to distract us from the excess deaths due to the Covid 19 clot shot. It is very possible that the next one could be a major economic catastrophe for the USA which will ripple around the world.

    It is obvious from their actions that those in our US government want to destroy the USA economically by running up debt. The US government may very well go broke and that is why they funded the IRS last year with extra auditors. The IRS will step up collection to fund the broke government.

    This may all look like stupidity to us but it is really deliberate destruction.

    1. The stock markets are behaving like this debt downgrade is a major event as they are suddenly declining.

  18. The cycle Dalio discusses can continue until we see a spike in longer-dated yields. Then it’s game over as we know it.

    Ray Dalio says the ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ explains the US economy’s resilience
    3 hours ago

    •The US economy has remained resilient despite the Fed’s rate rises and recession fears.
    •Ray Dalio argued that’s due to a big government transfer of wealth to the private sector.
    •He said that’s kept household sector balance sheets in good shape despite rising government debt.
    •Interest rates are at a 22-year high as the Federal Reserve continues to battle inflation, and recession fears remain – but the US economy is holding in there.

    Growth in the second quarter beat analysts’ expectations, inflation is rapidly cooling, and unemployment is holding steady at under 4%.

    Exactly why the economy remains resilient is open to debate – but veteran investor Ray Dalio has come up with an explanation.

    The Bridgewater Associates founder wrote a lengthy LinkedIn post Wednesday outlining what he called the “Great Wealth Transfer.”

    “There was a big government-engineered shift in wealth from 1) the public sector (the central government and central bank) and 2) holders of government bonds to 3) the private sector (i.e., households and businesses),” he wrote.

    “This made the private sector relatively insensitive to the Fed’s very rapid tightening to a more normal monetary policy. As a result of this coordinated government maneuver, the household sector’s balance sheets and income statements are in good shape, while the government’s are in bad shape.”

    In other words, central government took on a lot more debt and central banks printed far more money – causing their balance sheets to deteriorate and inflation to rise – to the benefit of the private sector.

    Although the Fed’s tightening has at times sent bonds and stocks falling, and squeezed some areas of the economy such as commercial real estate, private sector net worth has risen and unemployment declined fell, according to Dalio.

    But he once again issued a dire warning to the US government about high debt levels.

    “Does it matter that the central governments and central banks have such bad balance sheets and income statements if the real economy is in pretty good shape? Of course it does!” he wrote.

    “As with people and companies, governments that borrow have debt service payments and eventually have to pay back principal, which is painful. The only differences in their finances are that governments can confiscate wealth through taxes and print money via the central bank (so that’s what we should expect to happen).”

    Dalio believes it’s highly likely that as the cost of interest payments keeps rising, the government will need to sell more debt, leading to a “self-imposed debt spiral.”

    It’s not the first time Dalio has issued such a warning.

    “In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a very classic late, big cycle debt crisis, when the supply-demand gap, when you are producing too much debt and have a shortage of buyers,” he told a Bloomberg conference in June.

    At the start of this year, Dalio also compared American policymakers’ handling of the debt ceiling crisis to “a bunch of alcoholics who write laws to enforce drinking limits”.

    1. Why can’t the fed continue to print money and inflate the higher debt payment problem away?

      1. The Fed could very easily print the money and inflate the debt away. However, the Synagogue of Satan loves to pull the carpet from under us sheeple once we get hip to their current game. The sheeple are expecting inflation, spending like drunk sailors accordingly, and also running up debt. Then guess what, the game suddenly changes as the huge debt levels are “suddenly” a big problem and suddenly “unmanageable”.
        They might be in the process of engineering an economic crash as a convenient distraction from the increasing death rates from the Covid Clot shots and to distract us from other destructive things that the Synagogue are also accomplishing. They own the game and they can suddenly change the game.

      2. It could, but inflation is too high. The Fed would have to backtrack on everything it has publicly held dearly. Housing costs, employment data, asset prices are all too high and extended. Interest expenses are soon to outstrip the defense budget, and based on the accelerated borrowing needs, Fed interest expenses could soon top $1 trillion a year.

        What will it take to cause an about face? A manufactured crisis. If the Fed unilaterally decided to print like under COVID-19, inflation would spike once again, perhaps to even higher levels. Moreover, global investors would be less amenable to any dovish policy advancement and would dump currency even faster.

        QE works in a low inflationary environment and can work essentially indefinitely as long as the government feigns fiscal discipline. Both factors no longer are present and both were purposely removed.

        Though the Fed could theoretically “print” money, it would just accelerate the loss of confidence in the government, the Fed, as well as bond investments.

        I have been reading that Bill Ackman sold away a bunch of 30-year bond futures after the UST announced its higher borrowing projections. I agree with him and he estimates a 5.5% 30 year yield target… We could see higher and the 5.5% target he states will only cause a flat yield curve. I estimate it will go positive and longer dated paper will yield more than overnight rates.

        This is the most important aspect to understand; the recent debt ceiling deal compromise was so over the top that it was intentional. The plan is to cause this crisis. The deal was done in secret amidst wholesale dissension.

        This is part of a large plan to bankrupt many with huge bond yields and borrowing rates.

        I am closing on a 250k 30-year fixed rate DSCR loan on Saturday at 7.4% via an LLC and consider it cheap. I can’t sell much of anything, but enter this crisis with very low debt and a growing money warchest. I am the borrower, not the lender.

        1. One more thought about my acquiring money at 7.4% via a DSCR cash out loan. I may park about half the proceeds in a money market account and use the other half to facilitate two 1031 exchanges. The way I see it, the interest rate is not all that expensive considering what a risk-free vehicle would be for me to park the extra money. Until I figure out exactly what I want to do with these extra funds, I can park the money in a money market fund that will yield about 5%. Thus my real cost of capital is probably no more than 2.5%.

      3. I watched a recent Bill Holter video, in which he said, in so many words, that the proverbial “can” was now too big and heavy to be “kicked down the road”.

  19. By the way, I deleted the email addresses and if you have anything to discuss just post a comment. I’m only keeping this website up out of an obligation to help anyone who wishes to listen. I no longer really care, I no longer have blood on my hands.

    I’ve advised and admonished over the years with expert and unbiased analysis, freely given out, and if you’ve listened to me you’ve done very well, while simultaneously helping to spare you untold amounts of unnecessary grief and fear. But the people don’t like that, they’re scared and they gravitate to those who indulge in their fear. Bandwidth is down 70% over the past five years and I no longer give a shit what you think.

    Based on my psychological observations, the vast vast majority of those in the churches are not being properly equipped to handle any of this, and this especially includes the amillennial religions like the Catholic Church. This is because their extrabiblical doctrine is fatally flawed. I know first hand since I was a Catholic until the early aughts and I’m still well-versed in its ways.

    The pastors are sleeping dogs, while the Catholic priests are dead dogs. When Jesus comes back he’s going to appear to most people like a racist and xenophobic devil. Only the very few who are actually left will understand.

    I am warning you all to get out of the churches and just stick to the Bible. People like Alex Jones and virtually all the other alt-media personalities are leading you down the road to perdition. All they did was instill learned helplessness. They’re keeping you in that partisan pen totally unprepared for what is now taking place.

    I couldn’t give two shits about Hunter Biden and Donald Trump. If you do, go elsewhere to indulge in the distractions of the day.

    You’ll better start paying attention to the yield curve as I’ve been warning for years now. It’s now that time. We either have a next crisis or the yield curve will cause the next crisis.

Comments are closed.