While the United States housing market is still the cheapest of any other developed nation for its residents, rental yields are starting to fall. Is this just a temporary blip or a sign that the worm is turning? Even with falling rental yields in the U.S., when compared to other developed countries, American housing still offers landlords and investors better opportunities.
Look at the data in the sortable table below.
On a more granular level here in North America, I present you with the same data sets, but for a sample of individual cities. As you can see in the table below, there are many desirable areas that are still actually fairly reasonably priced when compared to elsewhere around the world, or in the United States. Also, there are dozens of cities not listed with at least 50,000 to 100,000 people that sport house price to income multiples of between 1.50 – 2.75. Not everyone can afford to live in the most expensive cities on this list, but there are scores of other cities that a family of reasonable means can call home.
My comment disappeared? I’m shaky over this CBDC and others have said to buy hard assets instead of keeping money in the bank. Are these your views everyone? I’m just afraid of buying a property and getting stuck with paying taxes without income. I’m considering the mobile home park investment with family member.
Good Lord what times these are to be living in. I thought I’d be taking it easy by now.
Many NT-only Christians thought they’d be raptured out by now. We’re only in the top of the second inning of the tribulation before Jesus’s return.
Yes, I think Evans is right. We are only in the top of the second inning of the tribulation. This tribulation will be long, slow and arduous. It will feel like eternity with unexpected events. At times like now you’ll feel like the tribulation is not happening, but do not be deceived. This is just a lull before the next storm comes. Satan is a master of deception making things seem calm like now to lull us to sleep. Once most people are asleep the next storm will hit.
This will feel like a long slow process, but keep the faith. Jesus did say he will come like a thief in the night. Jesus will be here at an unexpected moment when we least expect it. Right now Satan is in control and he is playing our anticipation of the end times like a master fiddler.
What do you believe the next attack will be – marburg, bird flu, malaria? Something is on its way.
I don’t believe in a rapture – Scofield was a plant I read. I’ve gone through quite a lot since becoming a believer and Satan is stirring evil people up worse and worse – especially against believers, trying to wear out the saints. It has been an endurance marathon.
That’s what I thought – that people are going to need housing but with the projected die-offs I worried that we couldn’t turn a profit. But yes, the borders are open and I just read they’re given a $3,000 a month CBT card for groceries, so they’re likely being given something for rent. I thought they were making the people coming in get the jab – so they’ll die too unless they changed the law.
We drove through a ritzy section and I was shocked at all the foreigners buying there. I talked with one guy who was only in his early 20’s and having a house built and I wondered how he got so much money being so young.
I wondered if they were going to take SS away too. Otherwise, how can they continue handing all this free money to people crossing the border?
Through attrition, the federal government has already taken away Social Security. I recall back in the early 1970s that retirees were able to live comfortably off their Social Security payment and meager savings. The monthly SS payment would easily cover rent, groceries, and utilities. So, the government will still pay out what they are liable for, but through the underreporting of true price inflation, the SS benefit has been reduced to a small fraction of what it used to be able to purchase.
Year in and year out any pension payments and wages continue to fall as cost of living adjustments are perpetually and woefully underreported. The government defaults every year on their obligations, the average person just doesn’t see it.
Foreigners are buying up everything here in the states. Keep in mind that as much as 75 to 80% of all fed currency notes are held overseas. They’re looking for a home and the United States government has been welcoming them with open arms.
I don’t think the federal government is enforcing vaccine and mRNA injection mandates on the illegals. Anyone who is diligent regarding the conspiracy for global government knows there is a replacement mandate. There is a concerted effort underway to kill off the whites and replace them with docile third worlders who will respond accordingly to whatever the government dictates.
While reprobate whitey struts and frets his hour upon the stage, the multi breeds come in and scoop up everything. It doesn’t matter how much any properties rent for anymore, all of that red herring analysis from the previous real estate crash is all academic now.. Whitey and those who have lived here for generations will be thrown out in the streets while the Chinese and Hispanics and other lovers of dollars buy up their properties.
Yes there is a war on whites – it’s easy to see – everyone knows it. However, the powers that be don’t like blacks either – look at the (likely infected with toxins) mosquitos they just dropped by helicopter on the black festival in MD. I only hope that blacks see that the powers that be are using them to try to stir us up against one another. I read 30% of blacks took the vaccine so maybe they’re trying to get them another way?
They must be giving foreigners housing allowance – although with a $3,000 a month food allowance I guess we’d all have extra money to spend on having a house built. It’s really unfair and I’m shocked that Americans aren’t speaking up – although we know the MSM is owned by them so we don’t get the truth.
I don’t want to see anyone go with food.
I think they’re giving them free cars too because spouse was driving on a busy road and foreigners were parked right smack dead in the lane with their trunk open and cars swerving around them.
We looked at buying in AZ but learned Saudi Arabians bought land up and were draining the water and Americans’ wells went dry.
I did read that they were forcing foreigners to get the vaccine – at first they weren’t but then they did. I don’t know about now.
It’s so very sad what has become of this country. Americans are the new discriminated against class. I truly hope that God ends it soon.
Reader, you drove through a ritzy section of where?
The foreigners were from where?
Amen. Very well said. I also pity the people who act on investment advice from the doom peddlers on YouTube or Rumble. They are beyond hope.
For those who read ZeroHedge, or listen to Jeff Rense or Infowars, the war in Ukraine is not a war on the dollar. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The dollar is falling here, because inflationary expectations in the states are falling like a rock dropped off a bridge. While inflation rages elsewhere in the western nations, inflationary expectations domestically or fading rapidly.
Do not make the wrong connections between a dropping dollar and any war. You certainly can go ahead, but you will continue to make one miserable financial decision after another. These gold shills in dollar haters who are promoted on GATA and ZeroHedge will lead you down the path to miserable financial poverty and inexplicable misery.
I get it, I hate the Federal Reserve notes as much as you do as they are controlled by the synagogue of Satan. I hate the rainbow as much as you do. But I call a spade a spade and I am not personally involved in any of this garbage at all except to the extent that I marvel at the incompetent analysts who continually get promoted by the adversary’s alt-media.
More bodacious price data. Short term overbought markets keep getting support. Slavery has never been so profitable for the asset owners.
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Export Price Index (YoY)
Act: -12.0% Cons: -11.1% Prev: -10.1%
Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
Act: -0.9% Cons: -0.2% Prev: -1.9%
Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
Act: -0.2% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.4%
Import Price Index (YoY)
Act: -6.1% Cons: -3.6% Prev: -5.9%
Banks using the Fed BTFP facility. The Fed runs it now. Forget the FDIC.
https://knowyouradversary.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Btfp.png
Is this it? Are we going to war now?
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-biden-calls-up-us-military-reserve-units-to-deploy-to-active-duty-in-europe-in-operation-atlantic-resolve?utm_campaign=64483
What happened to Chris the prior owner of this blog?
He’s gone forever.
Rumor has it that he intended to leave part of his estate to the Bureau of Land Management as he enjoyed the outdoors. Unfortunately, his estate attorney mistook the will’ s reference to BLM and evidently diverted that portion to Black Lives Matter.
Go figure. I also think he took the injections. He was stupid.
US Racks Up $652 Billion in Interest Costs as Higher Rates Bite
1 hour ago
(Bloomberg) — The cost of servicing US government debt jumped by 25% in the first nine months of the fiscal year, reaching $652 billion and contributing to a major widening in the budget deficit.
For the nine months through June, the federal deficit hit $1.39 trillion, up some 170% from the same period the year before, according to Treasury Department data released on Thursday.
The widening shortfall may play into Republican lawmakers’ pressure to curtail federal spending. While the GOP, which controls the House, did a deal with the Biden administration to suspend the debt limit earlier this summer, a fresh fight looms over appropriations for the 2024 fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1.
Higher interest rates have been a key driver of the deficit, with the Federal Reserve boosting its benchmark rate by 5 percentage points since it began hiking in March last year. Five-year Treasury yields are now about 3.96%, versus 1.35% at the start of last year. As lower-yielding securities mature, the Treasury faces steady increases in the rates it pays on outstanding debt.
The weighted average interest for total outstanding debt by the end of June was 2.76%, a level that’s not been surpassed since January 2012, according to the Treasury. That’s up from 1.80% a year before, the department’s data show.
Revenue Hit
Still, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has played down concerns about higher rates. She has instead flagged that the ratio of interest payments to GDP, after adjustment for inflation, remains historically low.
Another key reason for the widening deficit this year has been a weakening in Treasury revenues, thanks especially to a reduced capital gains tax take. Last year’s slumps in stocks, bonds and other assets meant lower receipts for the government.
Inflation has also boosted a number of government spending items.
U.S. Treasury posts sharply higher $228 billion June deficit
By David Lawder
July 13, 2023, 2:09 PM EDT
WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier as revenues continued to weaken and July benefit payments were accelerated into June, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.
The deficit compares to a June 2022 budget gap of $89 billion. June receipts fell $42 billion, or 9% from a year ago, to $418 billion, while June outlays rose $96 billion, or 18%, to $646 billion.
But some $86 billion worth of July benefit payments were made in June because July 1 fell on a weekend, and without these and other calendar adjustments, the June deficit would have been $142 billion — a 66% increase over June 2022.
By buying and owning residential rental properties we take the contra to the population. There is a trend away from homeownership and towards renting by younger professionals. In addition, we have the mainstream media promoting renting and discouraging homeownership. Check out this CNBC article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/3-reasons-it-can-be-smarter-to-rent-even-if-you-can-afford-to-buy.html
I see two reasons for this:
1) The younger generation is more irresponsible by living for the moment and not planning for tomorrow. They consider the cost and aggravation of maintenance as a headache and “not fun”. They also like somebody else to take care of their problems instead of dealing with it themselves. Most of them have taken the Covid shot so it really won’t matter for them anyway as they will only have a few years to live.
2) The SoS (Synagogue of satan)wants to discourage homeownership as homeowners have more leverage over their own destiny and are less controllable by the SoS. In addition, individual homeowners compete with the SoS for home purchases. The SoS being the institutional buyers.
To me it makes sense to buy rental residential properties and rent to these unGodly, atheist suckers to make money off of them. If they can’t wake up, then make money off of them.
Owning the stocks of the firms that these people frequent are also very profitable. Look what the stock market has done since the debt ceiling deal was announced. The NASDAQ is up almost 1,500 points while the S&P is up roughly a similar amount in percent terms.
Own the assets that benefit from the iron and clay mentality. AAPL didn’t become a 3 trillion dollar market cap company for nothing. The godless multi-breeds evidently prefer Apple and don’t mind getting financially raped with its subscriber type of revenue generation.
I was warning the readers that this accelerated government deficit spending was going to accelerate asset price gains across the board. I was the only one pounding the table about how high stocks were going to go in the wake of the basically unrevised debt ceiling deal. This ensures that the federal government will be accelerating it’s total spending to the $7 trillion dollar year level. 4 years ago these levels were about 4.5 trillion a year.
Gird your loins, my friends. While the reprobates weep house and asset prices will continue to climb and all we will hear from the alt-finance is the argument from incredulity.
I read that many investors said to get rid of stocks because the powers that be were going to crash the stock market and close banks. You think that we should keep stocks instead of dumping them?
Earlier this week I struck up a long conversation with the photographer of the photos from my latest property listing, and I guess he was trying to impress me. But he mentioned that he lost $100,000 in the stock market last year, so he pulled all of his money out of stocks. This is a conversation I have with many of the unwashed. They buy high and sell low.
I’m not telling you what to do, but when 90% of the YouTube videos are populated with market prognosticators who keep talking of a top and then imminent collapse, I take the contra.
When our adversary’s media continue to pound the table on economic and financial market instability, I take the contra.
When our adversary’s media and the alt-dummies continue to lament about the exploding costs of housing and that it has to come down, I say hogwash. We’ve not seen anything yet!
The masses poisoned by their EMF will be crying in the streets as housing costs continue to escalate.
I am warning the readers to gird their loins. The federal government spending is exploding and will continue to explode for the very reasons I have been saying repeatedly.
Am I not getting through to the reader? I’m not speaking of anyone in particular, but don’t frequent my site as one of several dozen in the alt realm. My words will be much different than anyone else’s. Of course, mine have been much more accurate for the very reasons I state. I show the readers how to not be preoccupied with the red herrings that others are. I show you where we should be concentrating and what factors are important.
The federal government has to spend trillions more in order to get their Great Reset Utopia. No collapses are allowed. Any collapses will only delay the objectives for the New World Order. These Masters have perfected the monetary sciences to do whatever they need to have done.
The FED has made it perfectly clear that there will be no banking collapses. The FED has taken over complete control of the banking system. The FDIC has become a vestigial appendix. The federal government is so desperate to keep their lights on, that they had ceded all their power to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has come out and said they will guarantee every bank deposit in this country.
Which side will you say is correct? Some idiot YouTube prognosticator who’s living in his mother’s basement or the Federal Reserve?
I don’t trust most of the alt-media anyway – most of them are fear-mongerers like the MSM. I just looked on Rumble and one after another after another was all fear. And some of the financial advisors all will give you more of their knowledge if you buy their $199 a year newsletter.
Maybe some are legitimate but I’ve gotten cynical. A know someone who paid for some of those gurus and all they did was mislead him – so he lost money paying for their ‘courses’ and lost money from their bad advice.
I talked to one financial advisor who doesn’t know what’s really going on now so any investment advice wouldn’t be accurate. So I’m pretty much on my own trying to figure out how to survive in this new reality.
For those who think that things are going to collapse, they are going against history and what the Bible says. Neither indicate that they are correct. Remember the synagogue of Satan convinced 80% of American adults to take the mRNA death injection.
In order to achieve the objectives of the Great Reset, the synagogue of Satan has a lot of outstanding issues to wrap up before 2030. There are still trillions of dollars that need to be spent to convince the masses to go electric. Investing in the multiracial rainbow is also a very inefficient way to invest and borrow. Borrowing and investing based on lies and death takes trillions of dollars and since the synagogue of Satan controls virtually all of the media, including the alt-media like ZeroHedge and Infowars, they will achieve their objectives as it climbs a wall of worry.
So, I say to stop worrying and learn to love death. Investing based on lies and death has never been so profitable in human history. Embrace death. Embrace The pale horse.
For those looking to have enough assets for retirement, I would suggest being at least in the 90th percentile. That would translate roughly into a balance sheet of between $2.2 and 2.5 million.
Mexico is going to be China’s replacement and I would strongly suggest that anyone interested in moving to Mexico to begin doing so and to procure real estate if at all possible down south of the border.
All of the US dollars are going to flow into Mexico and bid up Mexican real estate and assets just like in China. Forget Canada.
Learn Spanish. Become Catholic. Maybe dabble in the occult like the Aztecs and Mayas. Synagogue of Satan has been promoting the Aztec and Maya religions as a replacement to the nasty European Christian mentality. Learn to cut off the heads of the chickens and definitely carry a 9 mm for personal protection.
We don’t have that figure but you still don’t believe that bail-ins will happen? I feel as if I’m walking a tightrope – trying to keep our money from devaluing by making at least some interest, while afraid that the banks are going to steal what we have. They took the first step towards a CBDC. Shouldn’t that be the last red flag to pull one’s money out?
There won’t be any bail-ins. The FED has made that clear and it is now essentially guaranteeing every bank deposit in this country. It even said so.
As for the other things, you are preoccupying yourself with things that are completely outside your control. The rain will fall on the just and the unjust. Plan for what is coming; this website and the comment contributors add a lot of understanding to what is coming in the future. Any digital currency will not have a profound impact on our overall investing decisions. In other words, our investment recommendations should be essentially the same, regardless of what type of currency emerges.
Owning tangible assets is a great way to keep your money out of paper and a financial investments. There’s a reason why I recommend residential real estate. I’ve also considered and recommended owning precious gems like sapphires, rubies, and emeralds. There are so many things that we can do to mitigate the effects of a digital currency. I also think the type of income you generate and earn should be of importance in this discussion. Wages and salaries are going to continue to get beaten up at the expense of passive income.
Plan for a dismal future and put the rest into God’s hands. Worrying will avail you nothing.
PPI data looking good this morning as prices come in lower than expected. Unemployment claims slightly lower than expected. Overall a decent set of points.
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Core PPI (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
Core PPI (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.6% Prev: 2.6%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 237K Cons: 250K Prev: 249K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,729K Cons: 1,723K Prev: 1,718K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 246.75K Cons: 255.39K Prev: 253.50K
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 2.6% Cons: Prev: 2.8%
PPI (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.4%
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.1% Cons: Prev: 0.0%
PPI (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.9%
Satan forbid CNBC interrupt the Bob Iger interview to report on the morning’s numbers in real time. Bob Iger was brought back from the dead by Disney and has been instrumental in re-engineering the children to become docile lovers of the rainbow who hate all things Christian. He’s a member of the synagogue of Satan and thus supersedes economic data reporting. He’s been instrumental in cultivating Daniel’s iron and clay kingdom on to the masses and even into today’s NT-only church.
MXN is appreciating vs. the USD. CAD is too regulated to benefit like Mexico. If you are looking for Mexican real estate, now’s the time to buy and move.
________
Mexico replaced China as America’s top trade buddy — and it shows how the global economy is rapidly transforming
•Trade between the US and Mexico reached $263 billion during the first four months of this year.
•That pushed Mexico past China and Canada as the top trade partner since the start of the pandemic.
•China was the top partner for much of the 2010s and again at the start of the pandemic.
Mexico – Meet America’s new, old best friend in the world economy.
According to a new post from Luis Torres of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Mexico has once again cemented its place as America’s top trading partner with $263 billion worth of goods passing between the two countries in the first four months of 2023. Trade with Mexico accounted for 15.4% of all the goods exported and imported by the US, just ahead of America’s trade totals with Canada (15.2%) and China (12.0%).
Even as the world moves on from the height of the pandemic, Mexico’s ability to take the top spot away from China — which had spent the last two decades integrating itself further into the US economy — is a clear sign how the economic chaos of 2020 will continue to define the world world economy for years to come.
According to the Dallas Fed, the seeds for this shift were sown before the pandemic — with former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on some Chinese goods and the signing of the US-Canada-Mexico trade deal, a slight update of the nearly three-decades-old NAFTA deal. But Torres notes that the changes also suggest an accelerated shift towards “nearshoring,” a practice in which countries try to bring the supply chains for crucial goods to countries that are close both physically and politically.
“While data on recent nearshoring is thin and evidence of it is largely anecdotal, increased protectionism and related industrial policy are consistent with less global trade, more regional trade, and nearshoring and reshoring (returning production to the home country),” Torres wrote.
Nearshoring increased during the pandemic thanks to the increased cost of shipping products across the Pacific and the consumer demand for faster delivery times — we’ll call the latter “The Amazon Prime Effect.” Peter S. Goodman of the New York Times also wrote earlier this year that companies like Walmart are increasingly looking closer to home for ways to fill their needs as political tensions between the US and China heat up.
“It’s not about deglobalization,” Michael Burns, managing partner at Murray Hill Group, an investment firm focused on the supply chain, told Goodman. “It’s the next stage of globalization that is focused on regional networks.”
In Shannon O’Neil’s new book, “The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter,” she makes the case for the idea of regionalization over globalization and argued that keeping production closer to home would help American workers. In his review of O’Neil’s book, Greg Rosalsky of NPR summed up the argument:
“O’Neil writes that the average import from Mexico is ‘40% US made,’ meaning that 40% of the parts that go into the end product are still produced in the US. The average Canadian import, meanwhile, is 25% made in the US. ‘As for a product coming in from China? Just 4% of it was made in the USA,’ she writes.”
Still, in recent months, President Joe Biden has sought to improve the US-China relationship after seeing the fracturing grow in recent years, including the shooting down of a Chinese spy balloon in February. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in June, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently made a 4-day trip to China.
Blinken and Xi pledged to stabilize the relationship between China and the US. Meanwhile, Yellen voiced concerns over “unfair economic practices” but hoped the two sides could work closer and noted, “the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive.”
With pieces in constant motion, especially with China, one thing is clear for now: trade between Mexico and the United States appears to be as strong as ever and should continue to grow.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-mexico-china-trade-world-economy-changing-2023-7?amp
Late to start tightening, late to finish. Nothing ever changes and there are no mistakes when it comes to the central bankers. They are experts at feigning stupidity and ignorance, while their owners rape and pillage society.
_________
Bank of Canada hikes rates, says prepared to raise them further
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-hikes-rates-5-with-inflation-seen-above-2-until-2025-2023-07-12/
OTTAWA, July 12 (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday hiked its key overnight rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 22-year high of 5.0%, and said it could raise rates further because inflation risks are seen stalling above its 2% target.
The move to increase borrowing costs by 25 basis points for the second time in as many months was expected by analysts and markets. After a five-month pause, the BoC raised its overnight rate in June, saying monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive.
With oil rising above 75 on the front month contract I see that USA, Inc. will benefit more than OPEC+.
While the OPEC nations furiously attempt to cut back production, USA, Inc. continues to open the spigots to greater profits. Just check out the S&P 500. The domestic oil companies have exercised great financial discipline and restraint. While the rainbow coalition of Joe and Jose six pack continue to struggle, energy shareholders are cleaning up.
ZeroHedge is out pumping how OPEC+ is doing well because of the recent increase in oil prices. If the OPEC nations are truly cutting back on production, their overall revenue should not be increasing all that much, if at all. USA, Inc. has increased production by about a million barrels a day over the past 12 to 18 months and will continue to increase output.
#USAoilwinning.#assetownerswinning
Excellent CPI numbers. Let’s rock!
Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.4%
Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 4.8% Cons: 5.0% Prev: 5.3%
CPI (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.1%
CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 3.0% Cons: 3.1% Prev: 4.0%
Real Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.5% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.1%
BLS press release 8:30 edt
For additional information about the CPI visit http://www.bls.gov/cpi
Consumer Price Index Summary
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Yay! Let’s hear it for Daniel’s iron and Clay Kingdom that has established itself in the Western nations.
A song for the asset owners and landlords. The multicultural rainbow is so profitable for people like me and the other asset owners. Bring on the Antichrist and usurious people mixing!
https://youtu.be/KeiUvptQag4
As an asset owner, I need the mixed populations to go out and fight for social justice. Their stunted intellectual capacities, and inabilities to recognize their real enemies redirects their attentions to government largesse as the answer. The true enemy is all too happy to oblige. Trillions upon trillions end up in the pockets of the asset owners and the people complaining for justice are the ones who are ironically left out in the cold. What a bunch of dummies. 🤣🤣🤣
China’s misery is our gain. The world makes and the US takes. The rainbow is shining from horizon to horizon as the bottom 90% of the mixed will struggle to make ends meet and are welcoming the Communist New World Order.
The billionaires love the Democrats and the liberal policy that the race mixing and social justice brings. Not only is it condoned by the synagogue of Satan bankers, but it is so incredibly profitable to the true enemy.
I am voting Democrat across the board in 2024.
Here’s a song dedicated to those who continue to rely on ZeroHedge for its propagandized and weaponized news and analysis.
https://youtu.be/IoyvvEWHodk
Some recession….
GDP Now Latest estimate: 2.3 percent — July 10, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.1 percent on July 6. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 10.5 percent.
CJ, off topic question:
Can a truly free market economy function well without usury?
No.
Any population, like the ancient Israelites, can all agree not to engage in usury, but they would have to abide by and be governed by Levitical laws and such.
So, is that free? Depends on how we look at it. Ultimately, it’s much better for the population to forbid usury as it spreads the wealth and keeps our adversary from exploiting the people.
But, in a world in which there is no ultimate God in the minds and hearts of the population, outlawing usury would place restrictions on contract law; a formal meeting of the minds to engage in commerce and place stipulations on payment.
While usury is forbidden in Levitical law and the Quran how do we enforce it? While today’s Islamic disciple eschews usury, I know a few who still negotiate with contracts in a way that really still pay it. Essentially, the couple Islamists I know pay back more in the future.
In today’s world, usury is used universally. I would gladly give up usury as a concept as the world would begin to value supply inputs like labor and experience above all other inputs. Money inputs would no longer reign supreme.
Only when Jesus comes back can we put an end to usury. When Jesus told John in Revelation that we all partake in usury and the endtime system, that’s essentially what Jesus means. We all transact in debt backed currencies and debt notes.
What if soaring rates don’t kill inflation? Central banks may be about to blow up the economy
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/102585206
3 hours ago
They are the pivotal moments, the personal turning points that changed most of our lives.
The adventure that could have been, the job that was turned down or the chance encounter with someone from the other side of the planet that took you down a completely unexpected path.
Sometimes the choices are compulsive and immediate. Other times they’re based upon long and difficult decisions. And occasionally, we make mistakes.
They’re often the “what if?” moments.
But what if those “what if?” moments affect entire nations? What if the decisions those in control are making are based upon a mistake or a misinterpretation?
Take the present as a case in point.
Our economic masters are convinced that inflation needs to be returned to between 2 and 3 per cent and that the best way to do it is to jack up interest rates, regardless of how much pain it will inflict on a section of the population.
They figure that if it worked back in the late 1980s and early 90s when inflation went haywire, it’ll work again now.
But what if it was a range of other factors that, when combined with a sharp spike in interest rates, tamed inflation back in the 1990s and not just the actions of central bankers alone?
What if the resulting 30 year hiatus in consumer price rises was just an aberration?
Which leads to the logical final question: What if the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target is a goal that is unattainable and in the meantime we wreak havoc trying in vain to get there?
Do our central bankers have any idea what they are doing?
We all love to offload responsibility, to let those best qualified in their field to take charge and weave their magic.
But when it comes to economic management, global central banks have a pretty poor record.
They were sideswiped by the Global Financial Crisis despite the mounting evidence that preceded the meltdown in the global banking system.
They then stood back while bodies such as the International Monetary Fund made the situation worse by insisting that busted economies needed to slash spending, turning a crisis into a disaster.
Then they flooded the world with cheap money, turning 5,000 years of history on its head by sending interest rates below zero, before ramping up the program during the pandemic.
The end result was an explosion in asset prices such as real estate.
Then, two years ago, they denied inflation was even a problem, arguing the lift-off in consumer prices was transitory.
Our very own Philip Lowe has copped a hiding for his assurances that rates would stay on the mat until 2024.
But he’s in very good company amongst his peers and you could argue that his performance was hardly the worst.
US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell summed it up succinctly a few weeks back with this pithy quote.
“I think we now understand better how little we understand about inflation,” he said in a rare moment of clarity.
Despite all this, we still trust central bankers to deliver us back to a pre-pandemic world of low inflation when it all may be an illusion.
The dirty little secret about inflation
The conventional wisdom is that central bankers saved the world from high inflation back in the 1990s.
It was the culmination of an argument that took place in the ivory towers of academia in the aftermath of World War II.
Through the 1950s right through until the end of the 1970s, governments controlled the economy through spending and taxation, along the lines advocated by UK based economist John Maynard Keynes.
But big spending governments were blamed for the inflation scourge that ravaged the developed world in the 1970s.
The upshot was that Keynesian economics was dumped in favour of the Chicago School of Economics led by Milton Friedman.
Their idea was that governments should get out of the way of the free market and that central banks should run the economy.
Their views seemed to be vindicated by the triumph over inflation which was brought to heel in the 1990s when market interest rates topped 20 per cent and a recession raged across the developed world.
Amidst all the backslapping, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand came up with the idea of muscling inflation into a narrow band between 2 and 3 per cent by pushing unemployment to a level that would ensure demand was kept in check and wages wouldn’t grow.
It was adopted globally and central banks still adhere to that idea, that we need to have a pool of unemployed to keep consumer prices in check.
So they’re not castigated for being heartless bureaucrats, they gave it an unassuming title.
It’s called the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (the NAIRU) although, in true form, no-one can definitively pinpoint the required unemployment rate.
It’s a great theory, so long as you’ve got a job.
What economists forget about inflation
They’re loathe to admit this, but global central banks played a supporting role to the sudden disappearance of global inflation.
Interest rate policy was a key factor but it came about at a time when fundamental shifts in the global economy were working through the system.
The first was that China became the world’s factory, producing everything from socks and undies to heavy machinery at prices much cheaper than anyone else.
For the incredible range of goods it produced, China’s biggest export in fact was lower prices for almost everything which led to lower inflation.
It’s rise coincided with a push towards globalisation, allowing labour demand to shift from the developed world — thereby keeping a large pool of people unemployed — to a new, rapidly developing, economic power base.
That, in turn, allowed company profits to expand while developed world wages largely were kept in check.
Why inflation won’t be dropping to 2 per cent any time soon
It’s been a global race as every nation from Albania to Zambia has jacked up interest rates at a frightening pace.
The problem is that those primal global forces that helped undercut consumer prices during the past few decades are not only no longer in place, they’re moving in the opposite direction.
The peaceful era of economic co-operation is no more.
Globalisation has been replaced by a retreat to regional confrontation and a rise of nationalism.
Protectionism is on the rise, distrust has ditched dialogue and in the wake of a pandemic that exposed major shortcomings in thinly stretched global supply chains, more goods will be made locally.
That will come at a cost — elevating prices that will pump up inflation.
And while China may remain a major exporter to the West, its rapid transformation is reaching an end point.
Its exports no longer will undercut the West and replace industries.
Even if diplomatic relations were stronger, longer-term it will not be a major force in lowering costs across the developed world.
Then there are the yet to be tallied costs of global warming and the urgency required to shift to a low emissions world.
A complete new global build out of energy generation and transmission, low emissions transport and sustainable housing may help save the planet. But it won’t come cheap.
Let’s hope central bankers wake up to the fact other forces are at work and don’t just keep ratcheting up their required unemployment [NAIRU] rate to 20 per cent so they can meet their artificially created inflation target.
No-one wants that “what if?” moment in a decade’s time.
Evans,
I know you think the USD will reign supreme and think the US Economy will be great for asset owners. I agree with you 100%.
However, I have just read that the so called BRIC nations may be instituting a gold backed currency. See this article:https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-gold-standard-is-back-brics-to
How do you think this will impact the USD and the US Economy? Does this change your outlook?
One thing that I can see from this is that asset owners will be huge winners as overseas USD will come back to the domestic market and look for a home in stocks, businesses, and real estate. Any other thoughts?
Their debt issues are worse than the States. How can any overlevered nation state institute a good backed currency? Their economies would collapse overnight. These stories and tales have persisted for the 20 years I have been following the alt finance.
Great point. Their currency would be so expensive that they could not export anything as holders of the currency would be less likely to spend a gold backed currency and others would want to buy into it.
You are right. I have heard plans like this many years ago and it was all talk. The precious metals markets have not taken this news seriously as of today.
Fantastic news for asset owners and USA, Inc. stakeholders. Sorry, brainwashed multicultural fools, you still will be debt slaves.
China’s economic misery is USA, Inc’s. gain. The Fed will gap any debt deficits.
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China on brink of deflation as prices plunge
2 hours ago
China is teetering on the brink of deflation amid mounting concerns about the health of the world’s second largest economy.
Consumer price inflation (CPI) fell to zero in the year to June after a sharp fall in pork prices. The official figure was the weakest reading since February 2021 and below economists’ estimates of a 0.2pc annual rise in CPI.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/10/china-on-brink-of-deflation-as-prices-plunge/
Producer prices also fell by 5.4pc in June, marking the ninth straight monthly decline and the steepest fall since the end of 2015.
China has struggled to break out of an economic malaise caused by draconian zero-Covid policies that were only scrapped at the end of last year.
Heightening tensions between Beijing and Washington have also weighed as Western companies increasingly shift investment away from China.
Youth unemployment in the country stands at 20.8pc as record numbers of graduates struggle to find jobs.
Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Insipid consumer inflation is an indication of the soggy consumer spending recovery, especially for goods, as well as excess production capacity.”
Several of China’s internet giants reported disappointing sales figures at a major shopping event earlier this month.
Economists expect the People’s Bank of China to respond to the country’s weakening economy with cuts to interest rates.
Analysts at Barclays said in a client note: “We think the more challenging deflation environment and sharp slowdown in growth momentum support our view that the PBOC has entered a rate-cutting cycle.”
Some economists believe Beijing will have to supplement rate cuts with tax reductions or increased spending to boost activity.
However, Mr Wrigley said Beijing was unlikely to be forthcoming with a massive fiscal stimulus.
He said: “So far the public information points towards a targeted, limited stimulus, which will largely be funnelled into support for industry, technology upgrades and private firms, rather than a significant consumer handout.”
Looming deflation in China stands in sharp contrast to continued bouts of inflation seen elsewhere in the world.
Britain’s inflation rate stood at 8.7pc in May, forcing the Bank of England into its most aggressive round of rate rises in decades.
Meanwhile, the TPTB are busy with the meddling of the biggest authority of the Catholic Church, the Pope. Francis is completely controlled, he is not the problem, the problem is the election of the next Pope with the correct political “orientation”.
That the battle is a spiritual one and that the elites are obsessed with the Bible is true observing how many pains they go to try to control it.
Francis has announced a Consistory for creation of 21 new cardinals, all with progressive and modern agendas, as himself. Some of those will have the possibility to elect the next pope.
There is no hope in the Church as the modern attack on the scriptures and the messages of Jesus Christ will continue in the next papacy too, if there is one next papacy, at all.
https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-francis-announces-new-cardinals-2023-07-09/
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Pope Francis puts stamp on Church future with new cardinals
By Philip Pullella
July 9, 2023 2:51 PM
July 9 (Reuters) – Pope Francis on Sunday announced that he would elevate 21 churchmen to the high rank of cardinal, again putting his mark on the group that will one day choose his successor after his death or resignation.
The ceremony to install them, known as a consistory, will be held on Sept. 30, the 86-year-old Francis announced during his noon prayer to pilgrims and tourists in St. Peter’s Square.
It will be the ninth consistory called by the pope since his election 10 years ago as the first pontiff from Latin America.
The new cardinals come from countries including the United States, Italy, Argentina, Switzerland, South Africa, Spain, Colombia, South Sudan, Hong Kong, Poland, Malaysia, Tanzania, and Portugal.
Eighteen of the 21 are under 80 and will be able to enter an eventual secret conclave to choose the next pope. They are known as cardinal electors.
After the September consistory, there will be 137 cardinal electors, about 73 percent of them chosen by Francis. This increases the possibility that the next pope will share his vision of a more progressive, inclusive Church.
Francis has also increased the possibility that the next pope will come from Asia or Africa, having consistently named cardinal electors from those continents and giving less importance than his predecessor to countries in Europe.
Whether the pope will name even more cardinals depends on how long he lives.
Francis spent nine days in hospital after surgery for an abdominal hernia last month. His recovery is going well and he is due to visit Portugal from Aug. 2 to 4 and Mongolia from Aug. 31 to Sept. 4.
The other three new cardinals, who are 80 or over and too old to vote in a conclave, were named to thank them for their long service to the Church.
All cardinals, regardless of their age, are allowed to take part in pre-conclave meetings, known as General Congregations, giving them a say in the type of person they think the younger cardinals should choose.
Cardinals rank second only to the pope in the Church hierarchy and serve as his closest advisers. Due to their historical power and influence, they are still called the princes of the Church, although Francis has told them not to live like royalty and to be close to the poor.
Three of the new cardinals were recently named as heads of major Vatican departments, including Argentine Archbishop Victor Manuel Fernandez, head of the Vatican’s doctrinal department.
Another significant appointment was that of Bishop Stephen Chow Sau-Yan of Hong Kong. Chow is one of the major links to the Catholic Church in communist China, where the Vatican is trying to improve conditions for Catholics. The bishop visited Beijing in April.
Another is Archbishop Robert Francis Prevost, an American who was recently named head of the Vatican department that helps the pope choose new bishops, one of the most powerful posts in the Vatican.
USA, Inc is rocking while global suppliers take it on the chin..
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Record-breaking U.S. oil production helps thwart Saudi efforts to drive up prices
12 hours ago
U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April, helping to keep energy prices stable and blunt the efforts of Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters to drive them higher.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3986338-record-breaking-us-oil-production-helps-thwart-saudi-efforts-to-drive-up-prices
The Energy Information Administration has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in 2023, topping 2019’s record of 12.32M bbl/day and easily beating last year’s 11.89M bbl/day.
OPEC and its allies have announced cuts this year amounting to ~6% of 2022’s production, but Rystad Energy estimates output in countries outside OPEC is making up for about two-thirds of the reductions, and crude prices have slid 13% YTD.
Half of the new crude is coming from the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal, where several companies including ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) delivered strong Q1 production.
Companies’ efforts to improve efficiency have provided more ability to remain profitable even when oil prices are falling, and improvements since 2014 have cut the cost of drilling and fracking in the U.S. shale by 36%, according to J.P. Morgan.
The increased efficiency means EOG, for example, can earn as much from oil priced at $42/bbl today as it would have from $86/bbl oil in 2014; meanwhile, the budget of Saudi Arabia’s government reportedly requires ~$81/bbl oil.
U.S. producers are continuing to seek ways to improve efficiency; Exxon Mobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods has said the industry still recovers only ~10% of the oil it theoretically could from the Permian Basin.
Enjoy
https://www.oneplace.com/ministries/thru-the-bible-sunday-sermon/
I was asked if I thought buying a condo in Buenos Aires Argentina was a good deal.
https://knowyouradversary.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/usdars_cur.png
The answer is simple; if you have the dollars, you can pick up real estate in Argentina for a screaming bargain. Of course, it comes at the expense of Argentinians who cannot come close to affording those property prices when valued in ARS pesos, since that is what they currently transact in and get paid for working.
I am reading buyers can by one bed, one bath condos in the trendiest parts of Buenos Aires for 100k. A great city, but have dollars and pay cash or work something out with a private lender who deals with dollars.
I’ve never lived overseas, but when I inquired, it appears I can only stay for ten years and that is only if I become employed. I also was told I have to have a certain amount of money I can transfer to the local bank. I’m sure there are ways around it or maybe restrictions have changed. Depends on the Country. It wasn’t going to be that much more affordable or enjoyable, especially if one has white kids.
The USA is where it’s at and the reason soo many of the Central and South Americans are moving here. Of course they get a nice welfare stimulas, but they aren’t going back home. They are also using their welfare checks to buy the teardowns and fixing them up to resell totheir own countrymen moving here. Maybe that’s what makes the USA look good in the above chart, which includes all the bug infested teardowns built 80-100 years ago.
A family member worked in a pharmacy and elderly Americans are denied crucial medication due to thousands in copays – all while foreigners get Medicaid and everything paid for. It’s an anti-American society now.
Obama was the USs first homosexual president as his wife is a trannie, Rinkevics is the first EUs sodomite elected to high office. Embrace the rainbow, Jesus loves everyone.
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Latvia swears in Edgars Rinkevics as EU’s first openly gay president
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66141706.amp
I agree 100% that Barry Obama is a homosexual and “Michelle “ is a trannie.
Joan Rivers pointed that out publicly and she paid with her life. Clearly someone murdered Joan Rivers because she stepped out of line for saying that.
I tend to think the Obama – Michelle tranny stuff is a distraction from Obama’s connections to international Communism. They do the same with Justin Trudeau, distracting people with tabloid stuff that Trudeau is really Fidel Castro’s son—keeping people off the trail of the Trudeau family’s long history with international Communism.
Keep people busy with the tabloid stuff long enough that the Communism becomes forgotten.
Maybe the truth is stranger than fiction for this one. You have to be pretty twisted to make it to the top now a days I figure.
Black mail is good currency in politics.
No, Maria. You still don’t know and you will die never knowing….
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Maria Menounos believes pancreatic cancer, brain tumor were caused by stress: ‘Now I know’
https://pagesix.com/2023/07/07/maria-menounos-believes-pancreatic-brain-tumor-were-caused-by-stress/amp/
I know quite a few people now suffering with pancreatic cancer.
A cousin of mine took the Covid shot and now she suddenly has type 1 diabetes. In addition to that she had a ruptured ovarian cyst. She is still only in her late twenties. She never had health issues like this 3 years ago.
While I didn’t envision the major die offs within two years of the vaccine push, I certainly felt there would be increasing and new health problems. I also saw the death rates increasing. That seems to be currently materializing. I currently see people around me having new health issues and previously minor health issues suddenly getting worse.
I also see more people suddenly dying.
The die off is currently happening but it is being swept under the carpet to promote a sense of normalcy.
It’s part of the pale horse in Revelation. All of this explains the anomaly as we are seeing in the job market data. And even that data is massaged and manipulated.
I know several who died and one who had a stroke.
A family member wants to invest in buying an RV park. I said that people are dying and will continue to die through 2024 (when I heard that mass die offs would happen)
What are your thoughts on an RV park as a way to be self-sufficient? I’m just concerned about not getting enough healthy people to go camping. Do you think I’m too pessimistic or realistic?
A majority of the population is supposed to be culled – so what would a good investment be given this fact?
I’m also wondering if they’re going to hit the grid next. I thought they’d wait until winter to kill off more people. Any thoughts?
I also toy with the idea of getting an RV – a neat way to get out to travel and also useful if you need to leave dodge in a hurry – say if I wasn’t compliant with vaccines or climate change mandates. Then I hesitate – cost of gas, repairs on vehicle – or will gas even be available to me? Even if people don’t die off, will they be able to afford luxuries, like an RV? I bought a tent instead.
I worry about them cutting gas off due to “climate change.” Look at the push for electric cars even with them catching fire.
I thought exactly what you said: will people be able to afford luxuries? Obviously not as Disney is empty (it could also be due to the agendas they’re pushing; I don’t know) I don’t know what this world is going to look like in two more years but what I think is that it will have a lot less people here.
We put solar on our small RV because everyone said they’re going to hit the grid. I also bought a down sleeping bag and a solar generator.
These are tricky times.
I am referring to mobile home parks here. Not RVs, though most mobile home parks have spaces for RVs.
__________
I’m sorry. I didn’t see this comment post previously. Let me answer.
I have met investors over the years who swear by RV parks. On paper, the numbers can look very compelling and you will always have tons of business.
Here’s the downside, you will be dealing with a demographic that you may not be used to. I know I thought about it and realized after attending a 3-day RV park boot camp that I was not cut out for it. Of course, I was close to 40 years old and didn’t know if I had the mental stamina.
There are so many ways to make money owning an RV park and if you can work with these types of people, it is definitely a great way to invest.
Just a warning here, a RV park seller bids up the price a lot. Thus there will be a lot of negotiation between buyer and seller. It is vital for you to run the basic numbers like capitalization rate and internal rate of return as well as discounted cash flows, and present them to the seller as the reason why you are offering the price you are offering. Just don’t invent something.
A seller may say he’s selling the property with a 6% cap rate. But mobile home parks are definitely more management intensive than a single family residence, so you could counter offer to buy with a 9% cap rate. Always run your numbers and determine the condition of your Park and how many of the homes come with it.
Another investment option to consider is mobile home parks.
In most cases people who live in mobil homes own the trailer but DO NOT own the land under it. If they don’t pay the rent then they must pay big money to move their trailer out to somewhere else or they lose that too. There is a captive audience who lives paycheck to paycheck.
The only risk is that these tenants live on the financial edge and may not pay the rent.
With the hoards of people getting government help, trailer parks and low income housing may be a good rental investment with guaranteed returns.
I use RV and mobile home park interchangeably. I’m really referring to mobile homes in this regard. A strict RV Park is something I’m less sanguine on. I suspect that relying solely on RV traffic makes a potential investment more cyclical in nature.
Thanks for that info – I have to do more research as I don’t even know what those terms are and I’m grateful for your knowledge. A family member wants me to sink some of my money into this but I’m afraid of all these people dying and we’ll get stuck paying taxes and not get the income that he claims it will make. I’m just uneasy over all these deaths.
Do others expect a mass die off? Family says I’m being pessimistic but I’m thinking ahead. When that happens how will people even make money?
If you are pessimistic, which is not bad or good, I think you should see value in mobile home parks. I suspect that many of these recently disenfranchised renters and homeowners will become your customers. People can live in a mobile home for $1,000 a month and the accommodations are actually not all that bad. I know these developments get a bad rap, but many of them actually are in good shape and there is a pride of ownership with some of the homeowners. You make money off ground rent, regardless. You can even own many of the mobile homes and rent them out as well.
Even if there are accelerated deaths and sicknesses, the open borders policy of our captor has ensured continual demand for housing.
Just be careful on how much you pay and do the numbers. If you are not familiar with them I would seek out help from someone who does. Be very careful not to overpay and make certain you keep a large cash Reserve for build out and the repurchase of many of the homes that sit on the property.
Don’t be so pessimistic. We are in the New World Order now and this monetary and financial system is actually quite stable. It just doesn’t appear that way.