Housing – Profiting from transformation; what foreigners and unrestrained social largesse bring to the United States
I want to pass along some data that puts the current state of the U.S. housing market into perspective. While tens of millions of third-world newcomers continue to overburden the economy, they bring their Marxist worldviews with them. This lower-end demographic is used to high food prices, rationing, crushing inflation, high crime, tyranny, and mind-blowing house prices.
Type “housing market” into YouTube and all you will see are dozens of videos proclaiming the end of the housing market bubble. But it seems clear to me that there are secular and everlasting changes unfolding, and while it may seem uncomfortable, I still recommend we take the contra.
Look at the table below to see how easy the people in the United States have it. By every measure, house prices in the states are the lowest for their residents.
While American housing economists and analysts think that mortgage payments equal to 36% of household income imply imminent collapse, I once again refer you to the data in the chart. For instance, look at the second lowest percentage, which is from Canada. That number may give some Americans a nose bleed, but even Canadians have it relatively easy when they compare their mortgage payments to their paychecks.
And for you multicultural stooges out there, check out the multiples and percentages of the nations south of here; that’s the shape of things to come. If you are a liberal sad sack renter, you better hope the Cloward-Piven strategy prevails, because that’s the only hope you have left to find housing.
The United States; land of the liberal, multicultural complainers and takers. If you’re an investor I wouldn’t be selling.
Nothing is free, and socialism comes at a very high cost, although these costs are usually unquantifiable. For those real estate investors who are worried about an imminent debt default, I say relax. The Marxists are winning and will burn the dollar to the ground to prevail. This means trillions of dollars from all over the world that will be buying up American housing.
I suspect that many incredulous readers will smirk at my analysis, but they can count on the government to give them a cot, three square meals a day, and a communal shower stall in a repurposed commercial building somewhere downtown.
Good news out of Canada tonight. Alberta, North America’s oil production capital, re-elected a conservative government despite the attempts of an encroaching socialist government. Four-year reprieve, perhaps.
There is a similar reprieve in Virginia after Youngkin was elected governor. The pro-transgenderism push, confederate statue removal, race riots, and all that other stuff largely ended or went quiet. A reprieve of sorts. Nonetheless, it is impossible for mixed people to live peacefully with one another in a stable population, and this includes the so-called saved Christians, because many who say they are saved vote for all the liberal policies and social largesse. The only nations who can survive from one generation to the next throughout history were like people with the same religions and culture. Only a like population can recognize a mortal enemy, especially when it takes over the banking and monetary systems.
If someone doesn’t agree then you can fight to prove me wrong and live in Daniel’s iron and clay kingdom. Many of the remnant Christians are very naive to assume anything else. The Christians in PG County for instance are some of the most liberal and government loving people you’ll ever meet. But the NT-only crowd will say they are brothers in Christ and can live in harmony. Same goes for all the other peoples.
This is a lie perpetrated by the Synagogue of Satan who own the central banks and control today’s Christian pastors. They control Google, so the doom loop of lies continues until the second coming. Today’s NT-only Christian cannot comprehend that there are other factors than the Christian faith that are necessary to hold a nation’s population together.
Be careful which REITS you pick as an investor. As expected, residential, data centers, self storage, and industrial holding up while the other subsectors underperform.
https://knowyouradversary.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/saupload_REITs_weekly_2.png
The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average reaches its highest intraday level since July 1990.
Tokyo stocks opened higher Monday, with the Nikkei index rising over 2 percent, on hopes that a U.S. debt-ceiling deal is coming together, while a weakening yen also lifted export-related issues.
In the first 15 minutes of trading, the 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 619.99 points, or 2.01 percent, from Friday to 31,536.30, its highest intraday level since July 1990. The broader Topix index was up 28.33 points, or 1.32 percent, at 2,174.17.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/05/291a6e54524b-urgent-nikkei-stock-index-opens-up-over-2-on-us-debt-ceiling-hopes-yen.html
The billionaires who are seeking to defund police aren’t stupid. They are looking to privatize security. They will have it and we won’t and will use our tax dollars to privatize police and security.
____________
eBay founder gives nearly $2M to defund police — while funding private security startup
The billionaire founder of e-commerce site eBay plowed money into a private security startup billed as the “Uber for bodyguards” — while also donating nearly $2 million to groups that advocate de-funding or abolishing the police, according to a report.
Pierre Omidyar, whose wealth is valued by Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $8.91 billion as of Friday, reportedly forked over $500,000 to organizations that protested the police-involved killing of George Floyd in 2020 through his charitable group, the Omidyar Network.
https://nypost.com/2023/05/26/ebay-founder-pierre-omidyar-gives-nearly-2m-to-defund-police/amp/
Looks like the debt deal for an extra $4 trillion over two years is going through. Kudos to the asset owners… Pity to the wage earners.
The NVDA rally shows me there’s more excitement to come.
High five, LOL.
🙌 🙌 🤣🤣
CJ, what’s your advice for those nearing retirement who have 401ks/IRAs and outstanding mortgages. At a 6+ percent mortgage rate, should the 401ks/IRAs be used to pay down mortgage debt? Are there any tax breaks for doing it this way?
I guess that’s okay. Depends on your interest rate. In the US there are usually 30- or 15-year fixed rates. Don’t take money out of a retirement plan if you are penalized on withdrawal like in the US before 59.5 years of age. 6% is not too high with inflation at its current level. Plus, interest paid is tax deductible for itemized deduction filers.
At the end of the day, it comes out to how important a paid off house is to you. With low fixed rates I say to pay what you owe. With 6%, it’s how important your piece of mind is.
With this said, I am not a tax advisor, but if I were in your position I would try to pay down any expensive mortgage when you can, including a 6% mortgage that doesn’t depend on rent flow that may have a reset in the future.
I would borrow at that rate for rentals, but owner occupied is another matter.
Thanks, CJ. 😉
Elon Musk’s Neuralink and MDT both hoping to bring subdermal implants to market.
The FDA gives approval to Neuralink first for human clinical trials.
A couple older friends of mine were raving to me about the opportunity to help people.
Given that the technology has been here for many years via DARPA, I ask why now? Why let the technology emerge now? What’s so special about now?
By the way, the house next door to this friend was on the market for a couple of months and he told me yesterday while I was looking out at the Potomac River from his deck, that it was sold to a British guy for $3.3 million. The buyer paid cash. Mortgages are so passe’.
Yep. Those people are hilarious. They hang on Musk’s every word and believe in all his pipe dreams. Soon, we will all be flying to and fro on rocket ships, they believe. Why not throw in some idiotic brain implants. They have so much faith in science that they believe scientists know everything there is to know about the extremely complex human body.
Hey CJ – we worked and saved and now the country is in a collapse. I feel uncomfortable keeping our money in CD’s – am I right about this? We’re too old to return to the workforce and every day I feel on edge, waiting for the other shoe to drop. You’ve heard of ‘predictive programming’ and I saw an episode of X-files where they talked about a banking collapse on a Friday. So they’re planning it.
Do you have any ideas of where to put money where it’s safe, and hopefully will keep up with inflation.
Unfortunately, the whole world and all the countries are in a collapse. It just depends on what we mean by the word “collapse”. I think there will be as many interpretations as the number of the people you ask.
As you well know, this blog describes a collapse that is more like a transformation than anything else. Thus, if we were thinking of a collapse I think the traditional definition wouldn’t apply. The collapse of 2008 is different than the collapse that is currently ongoing. My current interpretation of collapse is one that describes the radical transformations to our physical well-being, as well as to our spiritual and financial worlds as well.
I have kept about half of my liquid assets in a short-term government money market fund. It currently yields about 4.8% and it comes with no load and I get it through my TD Ameritrade account. I would stay away from CDs as the yields are not going to be any better and you tie up your money as well.
There have been precedents set over the past couple months regarding the security of banking deposits. I suspect that there will be no loss of principal to depositors, though I can never be 100% sure. If you are unwilling to take the risk to buy any income generating assets, I would stick it in a no load government- paper money market mutual fund. If the government doesn’t come through with the securities in the portfolio, I think the last thing you’ll be worrying about is getting your money out of the bank.
I wouldn’t be looking at the day-to-day news regarding an impending shoe dropping. I suspect we have at least two to three more years, and I am planning accordingly.
I have been warning readers that we have until the end of 2026. For instance, look at the piece of bipartisan legislation that was introduced regarding owner occupied real estate in the United States. They are proposing doubling the cap gains exclusion, not removing it. I cannot think of a more propitious time for residential properties than if that gets passed. I know so many people with over half a million dollars in capital gains from the past 10 to 15 years and if they can sell that tax-free you’ll see all real estate across the board take another leg up.
From what I can tell the establishment is not ready to crash the system, but rather through the continual increases in the costs of living, they will make the general public cry out for change. But we are not there yet and the damage is going to get so severe for those who don’t own the assets.
Regardless, if you are that concerned, then I would just stick it in a government securities money market fund. I wouldn’t stick it in bonds yet as I think there is more damage to be had on the longer end, and from what I can tell inflation seems to be persisting.
Unfortunately CJ and thanks for your efforts a lot, may Jesus our Lord give us peace and prosperity to everyone in this forum too and our loved ones, I think the same about persistent inflation.
Masses in the Western World have abandoned the faith and are behaving in very egoistic ways. Then and of course, it is not surprising and quite logical that the ones on top nowadays are not better, but worse. I mean, still more egoistical than the masses, like we could with not much error affirm: our “leaders” are just supremely egotists.
They are mostly this kind of arrogant, deluded and stupid people that believe that God only exists in their mirrors just when they see themselves reflected on it, so the only “God” they believe on is just in themselves.
Quite clever?…
With “enlightened leaders” like these, it is very hard and difficult to expect that they will abandon this path of puffing the prices in an increasing pattern that allows to support themselves and their lifestyles, or to have any hope of them to try to offer any cut or discount even on the slightest on their burdensome weight to the rest of the economy and society.
So inflation, I am afraid too, it will probably be.
William Tyndale’s New Matthew Bible:
But I say to you that whosoever looks on a wife, lusting after her, has committed adultery with her already in his heart.
— All modern English translations say “woman.” That’s a HUGE difference. But the original Greek agrees with Mr. Tyndale’s translation – it’s “wife.”
The punishment in the mosaic law for a man that takes the virginity (due to lust) of a woman that isn’t engaged or married is simply he has to marry her.
The punishment for the same man if he has sex with a married man’s wife = stoning to death.
It’s impossible to commit adultery with a woman that isn’t engaged or married. Jesus’ definition of adultery is a man having sex with another man’s wife.
I’m not advocating lusting for the Christian virgin that you may be in a relationship with. Why? Because if you can’t control your lust and it leads to sex before marriage – then you have to marry her. What happens if you discover something about her that dis-pleases you? You can no longer righteously break the relationship because your lust caused you to have sex with her before marriage. But the punishment isn’t “death penalty.” That only applies to lusting for another man’s wife. You coveted something your neighbor has. That’s one of the 10 commandments. Thou shall not covet neighbor’s wife. Neighbor’s house. Neighbor’s car. Neighbor’s animals. Neighbor’s wealth.
Modern day churches – because of the error in translations – turn lusting over any woman a major sin. That’s not what scripture says.
Here’s another one deception of the modern day church:
1 Corinthians 7:2
“Nevertheless, to avoid fornication, let every man have his own wife, and let every woman have her own husband.”
The first important thing to note about this passage is that in the original Greek language in which the Bible was written it uses two different words for “own”. One word is used for the relationship of the husband toward his wife and the other is used for the wife’s relationship toward her husband.
For the relationship of the husband toward his wife, the original language of the Bible used the Greek word “heautou” which refers to something or someone that a person exclusively owns. On the other hand, for the relationship of the wife toward her husband the Bible uses the Greek word “idios”.
The difference between the Greek words heautou and idios is that heautou always means exclusive ownership and idios can mean exclusive ownership, shared ownership, shared access or even someone belonging to another. Here’s how it looks like in the original Greek:
Nevertheless, to avoid fornication, let every man have his own [heautou – exclusively owned] wife, and let every woman have her own [idios – shared] husband.”
— If a man has a brother. And he dies and leaves his wife with no sons. Jesus commands the brother to marry his deceased brother’s wife. Regardless if he’s already married. This is called “enforced polygamy.” If you love me keep my commandments – Jesus says. Why does the church kick you out for following Jesus? Perhaps they’ve been deceived by seducing spirits and demons:
1 Timothy 4:1-2
The Spirit clearly says that in later times some will abandon the faith and follow deceiving spirits and things taught by demons. 2 Such teachings come through hypocritical liars, whose consciences have been seared as with a hot iron. 3 “””They forbid people to marry.”””
Here’s another one:
Matthew 23:15
“Woe to you, experts in the law and you Pharisees, hypocrites! You cross land and sea to make one convert, and when you get one, you make him twice as much a child of hell as yourselves!
Catholics and Protestants – brothers in arms – will travel to Africa and tell men with multiple wives they must divorce all of them but one in order to come to Christ. What ends up happening is chronic adultery is committed. Because in many cases those wives turn to prostitution to survive.
Woe to you “experts in the law” Christ says. With their fornication with the governments of the world to obtain tax exempt status. There’s power in the name of Jesus. To them there’s money in the name of Jesus. May the Judge have mercy on their souls.
In regard to the seven brothers and one wife. From Young’s literal translation:
23 In that day there came near to him Sadducees, who are saying there is not a rising again, and they questioned him, saying,
24 `Teacher, Moses said, If any one may die not having children, his brother shall marry his wife, and shall raise up seed to his brother.
25 `And there were with us seven brothers, and the first having married did die, and not having seed, he left his wife to his brother;
26 in like manner also the second, and the third, unto the seventh,
27 and last of all died also the woman;
28 therefore in the rising again, of which of the seven shall she be wife — for all had her?’
29 And Jesus answering said to them, `Ye go astray, not knowing the Writings, nor the power of God;
30 for in the rising again they do not marry, nor are they given in marriage, but are as messengers of God in heaven.
31 `And concerning the rising again of the dead, did ye not read that which was spoken to you by God, saying,
32 I am the God of Abraham, and the God of Isaac, and the God of Jacob? God is not a God of dead men, but of living.’
33 And having heard, the multitudes were astonished at his teaching;
Yes, Jesus says they become like angels in the resurrection. This commandment was being practiced hundreds of years before Moses was born. Judah, son of Jacob, instructed his own son to marry his deceased brother’s wife. Then in the mosaic law it was considered shameful if the brother refused.
We also have Genesis 30:18 – where the LORD blessed Leah by opening her womb, because she gave her husband, Jacob, an additional wife.
We also have the LORD telling king David he gave him those extra wives, and he would had given him more if he asked. The issue was he took another neighbor’s wife. And he was severely punished for that. But Jesus did not have an issue with David having roughly 16 wives for himself. It was an issue when he took his neighbor’s wife. And when David died it’s written he did everything right in the eyes of the LORD except for the matter of adultery. Therefore, the LORD had zero issues with him taking more than one wife.
We also have Gideon having many wives since he had roughly 70 sons. He also did what was right in the eyes of the LORD.
Abraham and Moses also had multiple wives. Usually when God’s people were blessed with wealth from the LORD – they would use that wealth to take care of women and children through marriage.
The problem with Solomon is scripture tells us he took foreign wives, and they caused him to go astray. This issue happened with Samson with just one wife. This issue is widespread in Christianity today. So the qty of wives isn’t the issue – the quality of wife is the issue.
Enforced monogamy came from pagan nations. God’s people, as seen through scripture, regularly practiced polygamy. The pagan nations around them were monogamy only (they prefer prostitutes, orgies, and wild parties). The Greeks and Romans were disgusted by this practice. And early Christians were persecuted for taking care of multiple wives through marriage. But these pagan nations allowed Christian men to sleep with prostitutes, and divorce/re-marriage; which is polygamy in a un-biblical way.
When the Protestant reformation occurred – Martin Luther himself had no issue with polygamy. However, over time men were being persecuted for having multiple wives. King James Bible also changed “wife” to “woman” in terms of looking at any woman with lust = adultery.
So the Protestant reformation still kept some pagan practices such as enforced monogamy. And this is evident today. You’d be sooner kicked out of a church if you have more than one wife, than if you’re a homosexual.
Satan does not want godly men to take care of multiple women and children. That’s why the punishment has been severe. If he limits christian men to one wife – he can introduce doctrines like feminism – and break down the family unit and the entire western world – which we see happening now. I’m walking down the street in the suburbs with my toddler son. And a girl – perhaps 9 years old – calls me out and starts twerking. You limit godly men to one wife only, and introduce doctrines like feminism/women empowerment- we become a pagan nation like Sodom and Gomorrah.
Otto, have you ever personally experienced a polygamous environment, or are you just fantasizing about it from an outsider’s perspective?
When it comes to exegesis, one is probably best advised to look to the Church Fathers: https://ccel.org/ccel/aquinas/catena1/catena1.ii.v.html
Otto, just because God permitted polygamy at times does not mean that He intended this from the beginning. Slavery has also been permitted, and obviously God did not intend this from the beginning.
Adam and Eve were monogamous. What better example could you possibly need than this?
Biblical slavery is much different than the slavery that occurred in the states. Slaves were given God-given rights, and could go free if they were physically abused. They were also given shelter, food, and at least one day off for the sabbath. You can say most of humanity today is a debt slave. Many are living paycheck to paycheck and if they stop working – they can lose their home and everything they have.
Things were much different before the fallen world with Adam and Eve. We live in a fallen world now surrounded by pagan nations and peoples. If you want to replicate before the fall – then you should know Adam and Eve also walked around naked before the fall.
God never called polygamy a sin. And God blessed his servants with multiple wives and even their wives for helping them secure additional wives. Why is the modern church’s stance on polygamy the same exact stance as what the United Nations? Which is that it’s dis-respectful to the women. Read the songs of Solomon – Solomon’s wives had no problem sharing their husband and they loved the additional companionship and help with their tasks such as cooking and raising children. Today’s sole wife has to work, take care of kids, cook, and clean all on their own. But polygamy helps ease the burden and provide companionship in this fallen world. They and their children are provided/love for their entire life. A man can not divorce any wife except for sexual immortality. And wives never have to worry about their men cheating and dealing with a divorce and single parent motherhood.
Otto,
“Things were much different before the fallen world with Adam and Eve. We live in a fallen world now surrounded by pagan nations and peoples. If you want to replicate before the fall – then you should know Adam and Eve also walked around naked before the fall.”
The Taborites took this notion to its logical conclusion and resorted to living like nudists and having orgies. Are you sure you want to go down this road? That heretic Martin Luther told us if we are to sin, we must sin big.
What next, Otto? Protestantism, Mormon included, is a colossal failure. It doesn’t work.
God doesn’t dwell in temples made of human hands. Almost all of the little denominations are like prostitutes – they are in bed with the governments with their tax exempt status – and have no problem earning billions using the name of Jesus. But if something Jesus said that they don’t agree with, or are offended by — they ignore it completely, or twist the scriptures. So these denominations have no problem making money off of the name of Jesus, but at the same time they are offended by him. This reminds me of Onan who had no problem marrying and having sex with his deceased brother’s wife – but spilled his semen on the ground to keep from producing offspring for his brother (which was the purpose of the marriage). This was described as wicked in the sight of the LORD — so he was put to death.
No – I’m not Mormon. I follow Lord Jesus as my Master, High Priest, Savior, King, Teacher, and God. His Holy Law given to Moses makes plenty of provisions for having multiple wives, and as I’ve shown it’s allowed even in the New Testament. Sin = transgression of the law. Therefore, polygamy can not be a sin because the law allows for it. Therefore, why is the Catholic Church’s stance on polygamy — “Grave offense and not accord with the moral law.” Whose moral law? The self-righteousness of humans? Or God’s Holy Law? Because if you want to draw a line in the sand that it’s in-moral — then you’re calling Jesus in-moral for blessing his servants with multiple wives, and allowing it in the Creator’s Holy Law. Jesus then becomes guilty by the Catholic Church by association and his own Holy Law would condemn him. Blasphemous — which I expect nothing less from the Mother Harlot. And the little denominations that have been lead astray are her little daughters.
Otto, are you a practicing polygamist now or have you ever been?
Seems you are isolating certain passages of the Bible to justify what is in effect a very selfish thing. Calling the Catholic Church a harlot is usually said by ignorant people who don’t really know what they are talking about. I know this, because I used to say it when I was a Protestant. But when I converted and learned what the real Catholic Church actually, I knew that it was Christ’s true Church and not a harlot.
Despite what you believe, polygamy is not an anti-dote to Feminism and high divorce rates. I mentioned the Taborites earlier. Please read up on them and the Hussites, because they believed many of the things you are saying and actually carried them out. Their Garden-of-Eden-like nudist, orgiastic colony was a complete failure.
In other words, your ideas about a polygamous utopia are not new or unique. They have been tried many times before and ended in disaster.
If John were looking at today’s tableau, it would be the very same one the angels showed him in Revelation. If John were alive today he would be telling us we are all slaves, and the worst kind; slaves who think they are free. Then he would ask us, how did you let it happen? How did you willingly become a slave like the ancient Israelites in Egypt? He would say that we had the birthright blessing that was promised to us on Jacob’s deathbed, as well as the strength of God, and you sold it for a bowl of soup and a pack of lies.
Otto — always enjoy reading your thoughts – thanks for posting. Weighty compilation of Old Testament references… perhaps its Christianity’s own inconvenient truth
These numbers don’t do much to help convince Fed officials to cut rates. PCE price numbers coming in higher than expected slightly as well.
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
Act: -0.2% Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
Act: 4.7% Cons: 4.6% Prev: 4.6%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 1.1% Cons: -1.0% Prev: 3.3%
Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr)
Act: -0.6% Cons: Prev: 3.2%
Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 1.4% Cons: -0.5% Prev: -0.6%
Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
Act: -96.77B Cons: -85.70B Prev: -82.70B
PCE Price index (YoY) (Apr)
Act: 4.4% Cons: 4.3% Prev: 4.2%
PCE price index (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.1%
Personal Income (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.3%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.8% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.1%
Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.5% Cons: Prev: 0.0%
The news for residential real estate just keeps getting better.
Under the “More Homes on the Market Act,” when a homeowner sells their home, they will be able to exclude $500,000 for single filers and $1 million for joint files when they file their taxes. It would also be indexed to inflation moving forward.
MarketWatch
‘It’s a pretty simple fix’: A bipartisan bill wants to double capital-gains exclusion for home sellers
Existing legislation only allows single filers to exclude $250,000 in capital gains and joint filers to exclude $500,000 when they sell their home
Homeowners are sitting on ultra-low mortgages, refusing to sell and deal with higher mortgage rates and few home listings to choose from. One Congressman says the solution is in D.C.’s hands.
California Representative Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat, whose district has some of the most expensive housing markets in the U.S., in March introduced legislation with Republican Congressman Mike Kelly from Pennsylvania that doubles the amount of money homeowners can exclude from declaring on their taxes when they make a profit on the sale of their home.
Under the “More Homes on the Market Act,” when a homeowner sells their home, they will be able to exclude $500,000 for single filers and $1 million for joint files when they file their taxes. It would also be indexed to inflation moving forward.
Currently, the legislation only allows for single filers to exclude $250,000 in gains and $500,000 for joint filers. The amount, set in 1997, has not changed in 26 years.
“It’s a pretty simple fix and a pretty straightforward bill,” Panetta told MarketWatch in an interview.
Panetta’s congressional district stretches from South San Jose, all the way to Santa Cruz, down the Monterey County coastline, and all the way to the northern San Luis Obispo County area, he said. Homes in most of these areas typically cost about $1 million, according to the California Association of Realtors.
“A lot of people who have owned homes for a long time are in that position of deciding, do I sell my home that has gained a tremendous amount of capital and then take a huge tax hit? Or do I just sit on it, and give it away,” Panetta said.
He recalled meeting residents who had bought homes in the 1970s and 1980s who have seen their home valuations explode. A homeowner who bought a house in Santa Clara in 1997 for $300,000 has seen their home valuation rise to $1.8 million, Panetta said.
Other areas have seen similar increases in home values. “They’re just sitting in their homes that they’ve grown out of, and therefore not freeing up the market with these homes,” he said.
Panetta and Kelly’s bottom line: doubling the amount of money these homeowners can exclude as part of their tax bill would make it more attractive to sell.
In a forthcoming study about the effect of taxes on housing supply, the National Association of Realtors projects that by adjusting capital gains exclusion for inflation since 1997 and increasing the exclusion amount to $450,000 for single filers and $900,000 for joint filers, the single-family housing market would see an increase in supply of between 159,000 and 344,000 homes nationwide. That’s roughly 39% to 85% of the average number of new monthly listings nationally in 2022. The NAR is putting out a study on the matter soon.
The squeeze in inventory is a big challenge to the housing market. “Home builders will provide additional supply, but that takes time and it may take multiple years,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said on a call with reporters when discussing home sales for the month of April.
Increasing the capital gains exclusion amount is “something that could bring immediate supply to the market,” he added.
The current amount in capital gains that can be excluded from taxes was first set in 1997, and not indexed to inflation.
Jeff Tucker, a senior economist at Zillow, noted that the legislation will have a bigger impact in expensive real-estate markets like in the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as other coastal areas like New York City and Seattle, where million-dollar homes are more common.
Cheaper housing markets where homes cost less may not see a big change, since they will still be able to avoid paying capital gains tax on up to $500,000 for joint filers.
These numbers certainly aren’t bond friendly and don’t help the case for immediate rate cuts.
Core PCE Prices (Q1)
Act: 5.00% Cons: 4.90% Prev: 4.40%
GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 1.3% Cons: 1.1% Prev: 2.6%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 4.1% Cons: 4.0% Prev: 3.9%
GDP Sales (Q1)
Act: 3.4% Cons: 3.4% Prev: 1.1%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 229K Cons: 250K Prev: 225K
Jobless Claims 4-Week avg
Act: 231.75K Cons: 258.97K Prev: 231.75K
PCE Prices (Q1)
Act: 4.2% Cons: 4.2% Prev: 3.7%
Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
Act: 3.8% Cons: 3.7% Prev: 1.0%
I marvel at the timing of all this AI conversation. I observe how it has been injected at this moment. The technology has certainly been here for many years, yet the powers have decided to unveil it now and to cause another NASDAQ type of resurgence in the stock market. Look at what Nvidia has done today. I suspect we’re in the second to third inning of another NASDAQ type bubble. I would be looking to trade all of these AI stocks from the long side. Even these stupid penny stocks.
CJ, what’s your thoughts on this guy. Is he just another mouthpiece we are given to blindly follow or does he have a point.
https://fortune.com/2023/05/24/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-debt-ceiling-market-crash/amp/
He’s totally controlled opposition. I really don’t listen to anything he says. The MSM use him as the Cassandra mouthpiece. He will never dare reveal any of the concepts we discuss openly. If he did he’d lose his job and his DNA would somehow appear at some sex crime scene.
He doesn’t know it, but he’s used to keep the people in the cattle pen. The so-called Dr Doom has been predicting every crash for the past 20 years. A stopped clock is right twice a day. I even predicted the real estate crash of 2008 as I sold off three quarters of my rental portfolio by 2006. Many people predicted the crash of 2008. It was rather obvious at the time. Noriel Roubini has been the go-to bear ever since. He was probably the go-to bear before.
Here’s a quote directly from his Wikipedia page. Notice how he’s very quick to throw the anti-semitic card out whenever he’s criticized.
____
When Nick Denton, a journalist and the founder of Gawker, wrote a post labeling Roubini a playboy who lived in a “vulva-” and “vagina-encrusted Tribeca loft”, Roubini posted a message on Denton’s Facebook page, accusing him of “Nazi-style anti-Semitism”; Denton’s mother is Jewish. Roubini also called Denton an ignorant antisemite with a Nazi mind, a McCarthyist bigot, and a hypocrite, noted that Denton was gay, accused him of being a stalker, and added: “You are a loser and an intellectual dwarf who cannot engage me on my widely respected views on the economy … too bad [sic] was the first one that early on predicted in minute and precise details this most severe financial crisis.” When asked about the exchange by a reporter for The Guardian, Roubini then repeated “the rant, embellishing it with references to the KGB, Denton’s sexual orientation, and a sweary suggestion of what the man might do with himself, which he belatedly asks me not to quote…. the piece of art in question is described by Roubini as the work of a highly regarded feminist artist whom he won’t name and which doesn’t, he assures me, look anything like a vulva.” Denton for his part commented: “How can such a brilliant economist, at the height of his reputation, be quite so clueless?”
Roubini does not want to have children, and cites various global threats as the basis for his position. He also says that: “If stuff happens, I’d rather die than live in a world that is dystopian.” He introduces himself to people as “Dr. Doom”; Benjamin Kunkel described him as a human rain cloud with a nickname befitting a comic-book villain.
According to Wikipedia, Roubini is also a student of transcendental meditation. The guy sounds like a real winner.
Thanks for clearing this up and all your posts too. It is greatly appreciated
Noriel Roubini has been doom and gloom since 2008 so much that I just ignore him. Another classic example of somebody who cries wolf(or bear for this matter) that never shows up. Note that Noriel Roubini is also featured a lot on Zero Hedge. I think these perennial gloom and doomers are designed to mislead investors into poverty while they miss out on investment opportunities. Another example of a perennial gloom and doomer is Gerald Celente. So many times he said a crash or collapse is around the corner.
I would not take gloom and doomers too seriously these days.
Also, Dave from X22 report.
He can’t go one broadcast without saying several times, “everything is falling apart.”
Your typical pro-Kremlin Commie shill who blames all the world’s evil on the West.
You got that right. If you think about it, it all depends on how we interpret the word “collapse”or the phrase “falling apart”.
For those listening or subscribing to the pro-Russian shills like x22, Martin Armstrong, ZeroHedge, Jeff Rense, or Alex Jones, their lives have fallen apart and their financial worlds have already collapsed.
Making the right financial choices and interpreting the trends of a post-QE, post-covid-scam environment are not all that complicated. It starts with leaving all of our confirmation biases at the door. Once a person is duped into picking Russia or Ukraine, he or she is without hope.
I think Alex Jones has fallen the hardest out of that list. His life is an absolute mess. He is his own worst enemy, and has scandalized his fan base with his behaviour.
This is so true. Wise words indeed. I’m always watching out for such biases.
Thanks CJ and everyone for your insightful comments
The Western factions of the New World Order are baiting Russia and China to strike the United States. Just wait a few more years. The nuclear strike will come during a time when the streets of the United States are full of civil unrest, factional infighting, and kayfabe politics. The cognitively impaired, multicultural, mRNA injected military will be caught with its pants down (pun intended)and will absorb a nuclear offensive strike.
_________
MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE
23 MAY, 10:33
NATO not serious enough about risk of nuclear apocalypse — Medvedev
“NATO is not serious about this scenario. Otherwise, NATO would not have supplied such dangerous weapons to the Ukrainian regime. Apparently, they think that a nuclear conflict, or a nuclear apocalypse, is never ever possible,” the politician said.
VIENTIANE, May 23. /TASS/. The North Atlantic alliance does not take the threat of nuclear war seriously enough, thus making a big mistake, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, said on Tuesday.
“NATO is not serious about this scenario. Otherwise, NATO would not have supplied such dangerous weapons to the Ukrainian regime. Apparently, they think that a nuclear conflict, or a nuclear apocalypse, is never ever possible,” he said in an interview with the RT television broadcaster. In Medvedev’s view, NATO is “wrong and at some point events may take a completely unpredictable turn.”
“The responsibility will be placed squarely on the North Atlantic Alliance,” he said.
As Medvedev pointed out, no one knows whether the point of no return has been passed.
“No one knows this. This is the main danger. Because as soon as they provide something, they say: let’s supply this, too. Long range missiles or planes. Everything will be all right. But nothing will be fine. We will be able to cope with it. But only more and more serious types of weapons will be used. That’s what the current trend is,” he concluded.
https://tass.com/politics/1621829
The USG will give Russia and China the coordinates of slums and dead industrial areas it wants cleaned out. And the USG in turn will flatten their dead areas.
Then the banks will loan money to all parties to rebuild.
This is what I have been saying about Ukraine since the beginning. One big redevelopment project and Russia is the demolition contractor.
NVDA rocked aftermarket with AI story. Most AI stocks including GFAI shot higher on the news.
The high cost of socialism is usually shouldered by the hardworking working class and middle class wage earners who get out of bed every morning. The asset owners up top benefit from the growing passive income while those who get handouts stay at the bottom but don’t have to get out of bed in the morning and don’t have to exert effort. Socialism basically punishes work and responsibility.
Welcome to the new multi cultural kingdom.