Note to reader: This is an unedited excerpt from this week’s World Affairs Brief, with more analysis regarding the timeline to World War III. We still have a few more years to prepare.
CHINA IS PREPARING FOR WAR
In the aftermath of the sellout of Vietnam to China at the Paris Peace talks by Henry Kissinger, which also recognized the Chinese Communists over Taiwan at the UN, the US Pentagon proceeded under operation “Peace Pearl” to give direct military aid to China. We allowed military contractors Grumman and Hughes to upgrade China’s indigenous J8 fighter aircraft with US radar and fire control avionics, as well as our radar guided missiles, given them a huge boost in their ability to copy our technology.
Incredibly, this happened during the Reagan administration through the influence of globalist like VP George HW Bush and others in the Pentagon. Even after Tiananman Square revealed China’s continued evil intent, the US continued with “Peace Pearl” without apologizing for it, and even allowed Israel to continue the technology transfers to China after the US appeared to stop.
I long ago predicted that the globalists would eventually switch from helping and protecting China to warning about the China threat (after it is too late) as we get close to actual war with both Russia and China. And that’s happening right now. Both the establishment Wall Street Journal and the globalist Council on Foreign Relations came out this week with warnings about China’s future intentions, including going to war with the US.
The WSJ warned that “China Wants to Be at Center of New World Order,” quoting a top EU official. Conservatives must be careful not to continue to fool themselves into believing that Russia and China in attacking Western globalists about NATO assistance to Ukraine is in support of conservative’s fight against globalism. It is not. Both of these predator countries intends to lead their own more tyrannical version of the NWO. But before that happens, they have to take down the West and then they will fight it out amongst themselves for control of the NWO.
Going even further, the flagship publication of the CFR, Foreign Affairs, also warned directly about China preparing for war with the US this past week.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says he is preparing for war. At the annual meeting of China’s parliament and its top political advisory body in March, Xi wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches, in one instance telling his generals to “dare to fight.” His government also announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade, as well as plans to make the country less dependent on foreign grain imports.
China is mostly desert and can’t feed itself.
And in recent months, Beijing has unveiled new military readiness laws, new air-raid shelters in cities across the strait from Taiwan, and new “National Defense Mobilization” offices countrywide.
It is too early to say for certain what these developments mean. Conflict is not certain or imminent. But something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore. If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.
Yes, they are right. The big war with China isn’t imminent until they are ready—by their own statements, that will be around 2027, though that shouldn’t be taken as a precise date for war. It could come earlier or later than that. I expected China to take back Taiwan earlier than 2027—since most of these war preps are taking place near Taiwan—but that’s looking more and more unlikely given the US’ growing commitment to aid Taiwan militarily.
The first sign that this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—known as the “two-sessions” because both bodies meet simultaneously—might not be business as usual came on March 1, when the top theoretical journal of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) published an essay titled “Under the Guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Army, We Will Advance Victoriously.”
The essay appeared under the name “Jun Zheng”—a homonym for “military government” that possibly refers to China’s top military body, the Central Military Commission—and argued that “the modernization of national defense and the military must be accelerated.” It also called for an intensification of Military-Civil Fusion, Xi’s policy requiring private companies and civilian institutions to serve China’s military modernization effort.
In typical Chinese doublespeak, the Chinese never admit (in what follows) to their future aggressive intentions, but pretend to be only reacting to capitalist threats.
In the face of wars that may be imposed on us, we must speak to enemies in a language they understand and use victory to win peace and respect. In the new era, the People’s Army insists on using force to stop fighting. . . . Our army is famous for being good at fighting and having a strong fighting spirit. With millet and rifles, it defeated the Kuomintang army equipped with American equipment. It defeated the world’s number one enemy armed to the teeth on the Korean battlefield, and performed mighty and majestic battle dramas that shocked the world and caused ghosts and gods to weep.
All this braggadocio is wrong. The Nationalist Chinese only lost because globalist Gen. George Marshall cut off all military aid to Chang Kai Shek. The US was forced to accept a “stalemate” in Korea because globalist president Truman wouldn’t let the US attack Chinese bases on the other side of the Yalu river to defeat the Chinese outright, and our forces in Vietnam were hobbled by US planners not wanting us to win the war—which Henry Kissinger then gave away at the Paris “Peace” talks, asking only that the Vietnamese and Chinese give us 3 years before they invade again so we can “save face.”
Even before the essay’s publication, there were indications that Chinese leaders could be planning for a possible conflict. In December, Beijing promulgated a new law that would enable the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to more easily activate its reserve forces and institutionalize a system for replenishing combat troops in the event of war.
Since December, the Chinese government has also opened a slew of National Defense Mobilization offices—or recruitment centers—across the country… At the same time, cities in Fujian Province, across the strait from Taiwan, have begun building or upgrading air-raid shelters and at least one “wartime emergency hospital,” according to Chinese state media. In March, Fujian and several cities in the province began preventing overseas IP addresses from accessing government websites, possibly to impede tracking of China’s preparations for war.
The fact that the most aggressive preparations are going on in Fujian province is more an indication of China’s intent to take Taiwan than it is of a full scale war with the West—although I’m sure China believes the invasion of Taiwan could lead to a broader war.
But the most telling moments of the two-sessions meetings, perhaps unsurprisingly, involved Xi himself. The Chinese leader gave four speeches in all—one to delegates of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, two to the National People’s Congress, and one to military and paramilitary leaders. In them, he described a bleak geopolitical landscape, singled out the United States as China’s adversary, exhorted private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims, and reiterated that he sees uniting Taiwan and the mainland as vital to the success of his signature policy to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese ethnos.”
Xi may have drawn lessons about military mobilization from Russia’s failures in Ukraine. Xi also blasted the United States directly in his speech, breaking his practice of not naming Washington as an adversary except in historical contexts. He described the United States and its allies as leading causes of China’s current problems.
On March 5, Xi gave a second speech laying out a vision of Chinese self-sufficiency that went considerably further than any of his previous discussions of the topic, saying China’s march to modernization is contingent on breaking technological dependence on foreign economies—meaning the United States and other industrialized democracies [for both manufactured goods and agricultural products like grain].
In his third speech, on March 8 to representatives from the PLA and the People’s Armed Police, Xi declared that China must focus its innovation efforts on bolstering national defense and establish a network of national reserve forces that could be tapped in wartime.
Taking Xi Seriously
One thing that is clear a decade into Xi’s rule is that it is important to take him seriously—something that many U.S. analysts regrettably do not do. [At least not until now. Before, they all knew criticizing or exposing China would get them in trouble, until the policy secretly changed]
His messaging about war preparation and his equating of national rejuvenation with unification mark a new phase in his political warfare campaign to intimidate Taiwan. He is clearly willing to use force to take the island. What remains unclear is whether he thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States.
Indeed. That is the only thing holding him back right now, or Taiwan would have been taken last year as some sources said they were planning. Meanwhile, our “diverse” and “woke” military continues promoting drag shows for the troop’s “morale,” and is surprised when that morale among good troops continues to decline.
Last year, the Army missed its recruiting goal by 25 percent. The rest of the services are now below their recruiting numbers by 50%. Public distrust of the military is high among conservatives after the vaccine mandate which booted thousands out of the service. But the image of having to fight alongside women, gays and transgenders doesn’t inspire confidence in America’s men. As the Heritage Foundation wrote,
What explains the decline? According to a November poll, the most common explanations included “military leadership becoming overly politicized” and “so-called ‘woke’ practices undermining military effectiveness.” Another survey found that 65 percent of active-duty servicemen and women are concerned about politicization, including the woke training programs and equity-minded reduced physical fitness standards.
And it’s not just the US. NATO has disarmed at an alarming rate due to the grand deception of the phoney fall of the Soviet Union. I found this out while following a thread on the military blog, Quora.com. “Why does the Canadian military use German Leopards instead of American Abrams as their Main Battle Tank?
In short, “they got a ‘screaming deal’ on them” —simply stated as “der grosse DeutschePanzerSchlussverkauf” which translates roughly to “the great German Tank Fire Sale”.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany, there was talk of a “Peace Dividend” in the USA. This did not really happen as military spending remained flat and then skyrocketed after 9/11.
But in Europe, they actually did reduce the size of the various militaries. In 2007, Germany went from over 2500 main battle tanks to 350!
That was one of the main reasons for Western globalists going along with the phony fall—to get Europe to let down its guard and disarm. The US globalists knew about the phony fall, though they never let on, and that’s why our military spending was not cut.
But it wasn’t just an 85% drop in numbers of tanks and armored vehicles in the EU. NATO has also reduced the number of aircraft dramatically and consolidated all their outlying airbases into a few huge bases that are almost undefended from air attack. They have no air defense systems to guard against Russian cruise missile attacks, let alone ballistic Iskander missiles and have few revetments to protect aircraft. See this brilliant Ward Carroll interview with Justin Bronk of Britain’s RUSI institute: Leaving those bases teeming with expensive aircraft vulnerable to Russian long range cruise missiles and Iskander ballistic missiles is beyond foolish.
Bronk also revealed that Iran also has long range missiles capable of reaching out 2000 km. Although not long enough to hit main EU bases, they certainly have the technical capability to produce longer range rockets. And Iran has proxies in Syria and Lebanon which are within range of European bases.
86 thoughts on “World War III update; China is preparing for war”
Both bankers work for the same owners.
China’s Central Bank Chief Yi Gang Hints At Ending Currency Intervention
Bibhu Pattnaik, Benzinga Staff Writer
April 16, 2023 9:12 AM l
ZINGER KEY POINTS
•Chinese leaders have pledged to step up support for the world’s most populous nation and second-largest economy.
•Last week, Yi met Jerome Powell to discuss the economic situation in the U.S. and China.
The governor of the People’s Bank of China recently said that China can phase out currency intervention by gradually reducing the amount and frequency of its forays into the market.
Speaking in a seminar during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank spring meetings in Washington on Saturday, Governor Yi Gang said that China’s central bank will aim to guide monetary policy so that real interest rates move slightly below the potential growth rate, according to Reuters.
Amid concerns over the banking sectors in the U.S. and Europe, Chinese leaders have pledged to step up support for the world’s most populous nation and second-largest economy.
“We have been trying to stabilize the exchange rate for some time. However, if you go on forever, then one day I would say that markets would defeat the central bank,” Yi said.
“If you have the right monetary policy, I think you make sure the market determines the exchange rate and authorities intervene as little as possible,” he added.
The governor asserted that “[while] China reserves the right to intervene in market turbulence, authorities must allow market forces to drive yuan moves more.”
He also explained that China has managed to keep inflation “very stable” around 2% through exchange-rate and monetary policies, adding that the country was pursuing a “balanced” current account instead of running a surplus.
Yi further argued that, while central banks can separate monetary and financial system policies and conduct monetary policy to conquer inflation during “normal” times,” these banks cannot do so when a systemic risk puts their country’s financial stability in danger
Last week, Yi met Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to discuss the economic situation in the U.S. and China. The last publicly known conversation between the two central bank chiefs occurred on March 2, 2020, when the Fed chief spoke for 17 minutes with Yi over the phone.
ECB’s Lagarde Says She Can’t Imagine US Will Default on Debt
(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she doesn’t foresee the US defaulting on its debt, saying such an outcome would have dire consequences around the world.
“I have huge confidence in the United States,” Lagarde said in an interview for CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “I just cannot believe that they would let such a major — major — disaster happen.”
“If it did happen, it would have very, very negative impact not just for this country, where confidence would be challenged, but around the world,” Lagarde added. “I understand the politics, I’ve been in politics myself. But there is a time when the higher interest of the nation has to prevail.”
Lagarde stepped into the fray as the US stares down a potential debt default that could send shock waves through the world economy. President Joe Biden’s administration is insisting there will be no debt-limit negotiations with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose Republicans have been seeking to link an increase in the ceiling to cuts in US spending.
The US Treasury Department is employing extraordinary measures to avoid a debt-limit breach, but the cap must be raised this summer to avoid a default. McCarthy is slated to give a speech to the New York Stock Exchange on Monday that’s expected to focus on the standoff.
Prominent US bankers and officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have warned for months against bringing the US to the brink.
A similar showdown in 2011 rattled financial markets and prompted Standard & Poor’s to issue the first-ever downgrade of the US government’s credit rating. Then President Barack Obama agreed to more than $2 trillion in spending cuts over a decade to end the crisis.
Lagarde issued her warning after attending the International Monetary Fund’s Spring meetings in Washington, where finance officials from around the world discussed the economic outlook amid challenges posed by inflation and elevated debt spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Faced with pressure for further euro-area rate increases to counter inflation, Lagarde said a limited credit tightening might make the ECB’s task easier, echoing comments by Yellen.
“If they don’t lend too much credit and if they manage their risk, it might reduce the work that we have to do to reduce inflation,” Lagarde said. “But if they reduce credit too much then, it will weigh on growth excessively.”
It’s “a fine balance,” she said.
(Adds context on US debt-ceiling standoff, Lagarde’s meetings in Washington.)
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
I’m at the National’s game today and it’s bobblehead day with some pitcher I never heard of. It’s also black propaganda day.
Oh, you didn’t know? It’s no longer black history month but black history decade. After 2025, it will be black history century.
It was Jackie Robinson day and all the baseball players wore #42. What a pain trying to figure out who was playing. The telescreen and narrator kept gushing about him and how great he was; during the whole game and two hours before. It was like a reeducation camp that cost a lot of money to attend. It kept pounding home about how terrible the players and coaches and owners were back then.
It all reminds me about how the pharisees virtue signaled, bragging to Jesus about how virtuous they were.
Matthew 9:17 NLT
“And no one puts new wine into old wineskins. For the old skins would burst from the pressure, spilling the wine and ruining the skins. New wine is stored in new wineskins so that both are preserved.”
— People say Lord Jesus came to take the sins of the world. That is true, but it’s also so we can receive the gift of the Holy Spirit (new wine).
When we come to repentance (change our old way of thinking + regret past sins) – only then can we be properly washed clean by the blood of the Lamb, and receive the new wine (gift of the Holy Spirit and go through the sanctification process).
Let’s say someone attends a man made “church” building, and says a sinner’s prayer without repentance. Well – Lord Jesus says plainly what happens:
“And no one puts new wine into old wineskins. For the old skins would burst from the pressure, spilling the wine and ruining the skins.”
You need to hear/read the word of God. The Sermon of the Mount is a great place to start. You need to come to repentance, and then you can be properly washed clean by the Blood of the Lamb for your faith and forgiveness of sins. And then you can receive the new wine (Holy Spirit) that helps regenerate your heart (Titus 3:5), and be sealed as part of God’s only Church (Romans 8:9). With Christ as the head of the church (Ephesians 5:23). Through the sanctification process of the Holy Sprit – for your faith in Christ – you will be able to produce much good works:
John 15:5 NLT
Those who remain in me, and I in them, will produce much fruit. For apart from me you can do nothing.
Our good works should never be for our own glory, or for our justification into the Kingdom of God. If we are doing good works for justification — then it’s an insult to what the Son of God did on the cross. Our good works should be kept either private or to glorify our Lord and Savior. But it shouldn’t be done for penance. Nor for justification into Heaven. If we simply needed good works — why would the Son of God come down from Heaven? No — it’s a gift from God. Our good works should be a by-product of faith and the sanctification process — to glorify our Lord and Savior. If we’re doing penance or good works for atonement/justification — then it’s an insult to what he did on the cross for us.
For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith—and this is not from yourselves, it is the gift of God— 9 not by works, so that no one can boast. 10 For we are God’s handiwork, created in Christ Jesus to do good works, which God prepared in advance for us to do.
Luke 18:9-14 NLT (Parable of the humble Tax Collector):
Then Jesus told this story to some who had great confidence in their own righteousness and scorned everyone else: 10 “Two men went to the Temple to pray. One was a Pharisee, and the other was a despised tax collector. 11 The Pharisee stood by himself and prayed this prayer: ‘I thank you, God, that I am not like other people—cheaters, sinners, adulterers. I’m certainly not like that tax collector! 12 I fast twice a week, and I give you a tenth of my income.’
13 “But the tax collector stood at a distance and dared not even lift his eyes to heaven as he prayed. Instead, he beat his chest in sorrow, saying, ‘O God, be merciful to me, for I am a sinner.’ 14 I tell you, this sinner, not the Pharisee, returned home justified before God. For those who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted.”
Thief on the Cross:
40 But the other criminal protested, “Don’t you fear God even when you have been sentenced to die? 41 We deserve to die for our crimes, but this man hasn’t done anything wrong.” 42 Then he said, “Jesus, remember me when you come into your Kingdom.”
43 And Jesus replied, “I assure you, today you will be with me in paradise.”
Matthew 21:31-32 (Prostitutes and Tax Collectors entering Heaven):
I tell you the truth, corrupt tax collectors and prostitutes will get into the Kingdom of God before you do. 32 For John the Baptist came and showed you the right way to live, but you didn’t believe him, while tax collectors and prostitutes did. And even when you saw this happening, you refused to believe him and repent of your sins.
— You see what the thief, prostitutes, and tax collectors had in common? They were humble. They accepted themselves as sinners. They all repented (changed their way of thinking and regretted past sins). But the man that was boastful – confident in his own works – came out bad. Most likely, imo, because he’s sinner like all of us. He’s confident that his own good works qualifies him into Heaven, but when God reminds him on the Judgement seat of all the sins he committed throughout his whole life — all of a sudden the scales will shift. Salvation is a gift from God. So no man can boast, but boast in the Lord and Savior. Yahshua – Lord Jesus Christ.
A reason God allowed the Israelites to have their own kings is to simply show them it can’t be done without God. Sure — you may have one decent king. But there’s zero assurance that the next king that takes the throne won’t burn it all to the ground:
Ecclesiastes 2:19 (Solomon):
And who can tell whether my successors will be wise or foolish? Yet they will control everything I have gained by my skill and hard work under the sun.
His kingdom became divided after his reign ended.
What about the Law God gave through Moses (which itself is Holy and Good):
It was the law that showed me my sin.
The law is the transgression of sin. If anyone thinks they can fulfill the law — then they are kidding themselves. Just like with the kings of Israel — so too the law of Moses — it was to show we’re in fact sinners and needed a savior. And that savior is Lord Jesus Christ.
*Whosoever committeth sin transgresseth also the law: for sin is the transgression of the law. (1 John 3:4)
“Yashua” is an invention of the Zionist Hebrew roots movement. There is no evidence that Jesus was called this in His time. Same goes for Yeshua, Yehoshua, Yahhuwah, etc.
Sola fide long been debunked. Works are the result of faith. The Catholic Church has never taught otherwise, no matter how some bad Catholics behave.
I don’t know about that, but I do know the whole world has mis-used the word “church.” In the Greek the church means “Called out ones.” It’s not a temple or location. Our bodies are the temple. And in Acts 7:48 it says:
However, the Most High doesn’t live in temples made by human hands.
– In the book of revelation, Lord Jesus had a message to his church in different cities. That letter from John was before 70 AD. Now – if Catholic tradition says the first churches were built in around 300 AD – it means someone is lying. You can’t build God’s church. God purchased it with his own blood – and its membership is through the Spirit baptism. Then we become members with Christ as the head. Like Yahshua told the Samaritan woman by the well – his followers need to worship in Spirit and Truth. Not by going to temples made of human hands.
“Their worship is a farce, for they teach man-made ideas as commands from God.’”
Nothing new under the sun.
1 Timothy 4:3
They will prohibit marriage and require abstinence from certain foods that God has created to be received with thanksgiving by those who believe and know the truth.
Why do your priests practice celibacy as a requirement, thereby, mitigating God’s commandment which recommends marriage if a man burns with lust, otherwise, Satan may come tempt you:
1 Corinthians 7:9
But if they can’t control themselves, they should go ahead and marry. It’s better to marry than to burn with lust.
1 Corinthians 5
5 Do not deprive each other of sexual relations, unless you both agree to refrain from sexual intimacy for a limited time so you can give yourselves more completely to prayer. Afterward, you should come together again so that Satan won’t be able to tempt you because of your lack of self-control.
— Isn’t that what Satan has done to these priests? They preferred the words of men versus the words of the Most High God. Therefore they’ve been tempted to condemn themselves with homosexuality, and raping little children.
And what about avoiding meat for penance? Lord Jesus paid it all on the cross? Why add man made justification when God paid the price in full?
This crooked generation would thrown Abraham, Jacob, and Moses in jail as adulterers. The word “woman” Lord Jesus used when looking at a woman with lust – is translated to “wife” in the original Greek. In all places these bibles translate that Greek word correctly to wife. But in that location they chose woman.
Otto, I understand what you are saying. I was of the “unchurched” mindset when I was a Protestant. But it doesn’t stand to reason that God would leave us with no tangible guidance on Earth. The Bible alone doesn’t cut it. Sola scriptura is inherently and grossly flawed. It’s even less reasonable.
I understand your viewpoint as well. It’s not easy to go Sola Scriptura. Usually, you’re on your own. Your conclusions are sometimes completely contradictory to not only what the world thinks, but even among Christians. Praying for the comforter’s guidance, reading daily, and studying the different translations takes time. And the way Satan has built this world system — people barely have time for their own kids and getting their their bills paid on time. But as men in the faith – we should still strive to seek God’s Kingdom and righteousness first – regardless of the obstacles in our way. I would recommend with any church – doesn’t matter what church it is – to have the spirit of the Bereans:
10 That very night the believers sent Paul and Silas to Berea. When they arrived there, they went to the Jewish synagogue. 11 And the people of Berea were more open-minded than those in Thessalonica, and they listened eagerly to Paul’s message. They searched the Scriptures day after day to see if Paul and Silas were teaching the truth. 12 As a result, many Jews believed, as did many of the prominent Greek women and men.
There’s much deception out there. A lot of it started during “Enlightenment” and “Renaissance Period.” This is when the fruit of the adversary started to show up. Thinks like Illuminati, Rothchilds, Freemasonry, new scientific ideas of thought – such as the heliocentric model, and the theory of evolution began to take shape. An increase in conflicts and persecutions. But the adversary calls this period the “Enlightenment Period.” With the adversary what is up is down. What is down is up. Makes me wonder about the “Dark Ages.”
This rearranging of Jesus’s name and the anagrams and tetragrams attached to it, as well as all this other related stuff was introduced with the Hebrew Roots movement after the seminaries were all infiltrated. Before the Schofield doctrine and such, it was just Jesus Christ, regardless of whether it was Protestant or Catholic. No one but the scholars who were trained in it knew Hebrew nor cared to learn about it. It was a dead language. It seems that as soon as the bankers took control of Europe and America this Hebrew Roots garbage took hold. I avoid it all like the plague. It’s all part of the philosophy that the Jews are God’s chosen. It’s all part of the philosophy that the Old Testament was written for the Jews. None of this is true at all in any one bit.
You and I may be able to see through this stuff, but countless other people get stuck. And that’s what it’s all about; destroying the souls of the many.
English speakers say only one name unambiguously; Jesus Christ. In Jesus’s name every knee shall bow.
Some people use Iesus. Some Lord Jesus Christ. Some use other names. What’s important is the relationship with the Lord and Savior. Here is the Book of Revelation:
The one who is victorious I will make a pillar in the temple of my God. Never again will they leave it. I will write on them the name of my God and the name of the city of my God, the new Jerusalem, which is coming down out of heaven from my God; and I will also write on them my new name.
Scripture says that in the end – Lord Jesus Christ is going to have a new name. Whom his followers will know him by. I don’t think it’s going to be any name we have used on Earth.
That’s right. God, in His infinite wisdom, knew that Hebrew would become obsolete and so He knew that Jesus would become the name above all names. People talk about Yahweh, Jehovah, Yeshua ad nauseum, yet Jesus remains the name above all names. 😉
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink says interest rates are going to remain high, despite signs the Federal Reserve’s aggressive response to high inflation is starting to take effect.
The top asset manager told CNBC on Friday that inflation is “going to be stickier for longer,” and that he expects a “four-ish percent floor in inflation,” but not anytime soon.
BlackRock CEO On A Fragmented World: “A lot of it has to do with geopolitical issues,” Fink said, citing how the U.S. continues to move global supply chains out of China.
“We have moved away from this whole concept of globalization; We moved to fragmentation,” Fink added, regarding the breakup of supply chains. “If we want to have national security for food, national security interest for [microchips] and energy, no one’s asking the essential question — at what cost?”
While this might be the “right thing for our country and every other country,” Fink says, these types of policies will keep inflation stickier for longer.
As a result, the Fed will likely tighten “a few more times,” he added.
The result for these policies will be hunger.
Here in Europe we have not any much energy left so we have to pay our lacking and still feed the ever growing SoS governments with much higher prices and it seems quite clearly that is going to get worse.
For some years to now those Brussels policy makers have resorted to rise regulations to the agricultural and it seems that we are starting to see the results of those policies now that the lean years are getting closer by.
Bureaucrats seem to be extremely imaginative and efficient creating new laws and regulations to get their way, whatever absurd, and the old Continent ones seem to be quite “clever” in their delirious megalomania. For example, in Spain, since some few weeks ago, it may be illegal to kill any animal like the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus), as with the new regulations, even that “killing” may get you in trouble thanks to recently passed animal protecting laws.
So, with so much meddling and more expensive energy prices, many basic foods have increased their price a lot. I am talking mostly about vegs, fruits, eggs, meat and fish. I calculate that since the Covid outbreak prices of basics have doubled; I am for sure expending double money in my grocery shopping and we are getting by with less and cheaper stuff.
What the Governments are not doing in any way is try to help us or anybody but themselves, try to spend any less money or sack any single of their highly paid cushioned “public servants”.
Hunger won’t start as hunger as it will as hidden hunger. Hidden hunger used to be what the old sailors used to have when they embarked in long voyages around the world without any fresh fruits or vegetables, the famous scurvy. Hidden hunger is when your stomach is full but because you can not afford any better food you lack the necessary nutrients to keep your health in god order so you actually are inviting disease producing pathogens to attack and sicken you.
Then we will have the real pandemic, I am afraid.
As long as people are nursing debts and there is corruption, which works to misallocate financial resources, currency will always be scarce. Look at this article about the dollar shortages in Bolivia.
US dollar scarcity threatens Bolivia’s ‘economic miracle’
As many dollars as there are, the dollar debt will always be greater, creating powerful demand for dollars. This is why many of the countries out there want to get away from the USD. But they don’t understand that whatever currency these countries wish to transact in will always be in short supply. The dollar is actually a better facilitator of trade than anything else, and is in much greater supply.
America’s enemies are only beginning to figure this out. Famine is the result of global over indebtedness, regardless of the money supply.
Indebtedness is because politicians and big companies are signing ever greater debt contracts with the big banks by the backdoor and in secret. Banks are lending the money on the conditions of making the citizens due to pay these debts and their interests directly as increasingly burdened debt slaves or taxes, or indirectly by increasing inflation and prices.
This is nothing new. It is actually a business as usual practice in banking in Europe.
The power of the banks today is comparable and so great as it was just before the Black Death in Europe, during the 14th century, when Italian bankers dominated European finance with catastrophic results.
“You need to go back to the 14th century to find a period when bankers conducting business across Europe were as unpopular as the current lot. And, that time round, it was the bankers of Lombardy who held King Edward III of England in their thrall and the King of Naples at their mercy.
In those days, the most powerful of them were located in Florence. They were led by the Bardi, Peruzzi and Acciaiuoli families although many other families, some in Venice, colluded.
The banks were in an exceptionally powerful position, according to author Paul Gallagher. “There were as yet no nations. No government had the national sovereignty to control the banks and the creation of credit.” To fight their wars, kings had to offer the banks control over slices of their government’s revenue and the banks gained influence over nations by way of return. If the kings wanted to retain access to finance, they needed to play ball. At least until recently, the French felt much the same way about the Germans.
Edward III wanted money to fight his war against the French, and the bankers of Lombardy saw an opportunity to demand tough terms. Their revenue, after all, was far larger than his. For loans, they negotiated a monopoly in trading English wool and offered the king credit on terms which implied a 15% devaluation of the English coin. The king tried to start up his own line of credit, but it was refused by the Florentines and he chose to default.
In 1325, the Peruzzi bank owned most of the revenues produced by the Kingdom of Naples, agreeing to pay its army out of the proceeds and Naples also defaulted in due course. Elsewhere, the bankers did well out of Hungary and cooperated in the exploitation of France. Castile fell prey to them. Northern Italy was in their power. The Vatican leaned on them for support.
According to Edwin Hunt’s book The Medieval Super-Companies: A Study of the Peruzzi Company of Florence, there were few limits to the power of the bankers. “They used loans to monarchs to dominate and control trade in certain vital commodities, especially grain and later wool and cloth.”
Their influence over the commodities markets was further enhanced by trade finance, which Peruzzi & Co dominated. Seafarers from Venice seeking finance helped put more of Europe, and some of Asia, in the thrall of Lombardy bankers. Achieving scale to beat the opposition was as important then, as it is now, often with fatal results.
The 1330s were a prosperous period for Europe, when the power of the bankers reached its zenith. Farmers were keen to take advantage of rising commodity prices, and offered the bankers of Florence generous terms to get loan capital. The bankers also connived in a rise of taxes in rural areas, where they had political influence.
But the cost of loan capital contributed to a collapse in the rural economy as the Black Death started to make its presence felt, carried by rodents brought to Europe from the east on the ships funded by Lombard loans. Local wars did not help – they never did.
One by one, creditors collapsed, and the Peruzzi, Bardi and Acciauoli banking groups followed. In the decades that followed, Europe’s population crashed from 90 to 60 million as a result of the Black Death.”
They didn’t have QE. We do and as the social largesse is spent, it’s transferred to the asset owner balance sheets. We talked about this for years as a self-generating mechanism, which is why the wealthy elite choose socialism. However, COVID stimulus ramped it up to a previously unseen level.
The public at large is stuck with the debt, but those with the income generating assets win. 100% of the population deals with the debt and the degradation of lifestyle, but the bottom 90% have nothing to offset the debt burden.
“But the cost of loan capital contributed to a collapse in the rural economy as the Black Death started to make its presence felt, carried by rodents brought to Europe from the east on the ships funded by Lombard loans.”
So that time it was the “rodents”…not the bats? I see.
Buffett looks for income to grow his portfolio.
Warren Buffett Was Said To Overpay For BNSF Railway, Here’s Why He’s Having The Last Laugh
“Speaking of Buffett, many critics said he overpaid for BNSF Railway when he acquired it in February 2010, shortly after the global financial crisis, in a $44 billion deal,” Tilson writes. “As always, he has had the last laugh, as the railroad has paid Berkshire more than $50 billion and counting.”
Here’s a look at the dividends paid by BNSF to Berkshire since 2010:
2010: $1.25 billion (cumulative $1.25 billion)
2011: $3.50 billion ($4.75 billion)
2012: $3.75 billion ($8.50 billion)
2013: $4.00 billion ($12.50 billion)
2014: $3.50 billion ($16.00 billion)
2015: $4.00 billion ($20.00 billion)
2016: $2.50 billion ($22.50 billion)
2017: $4.575 billion ($27.075 billion)
2018: $5.45 billion ($32.525 billion)
2019: $4.425 billion ($36.95 billion)
2020: $4.83 billion ($41.78 billion)
2021: $3.80 billion ($45.58 billion)
2022: $5.00 billion ($50.58 billion)
“The railroad pays us, however, only what remains after it fulfills the needs of its business and maintains a cash balance of about $2 billion,” Buffett said previously.
Larry Fink sees ‘4%-ish’ inflation floor due to reshoring and deglobalization
16 minutes ago
BlackRock’s Larry Fink says inflation will remain sticky.
That’s BlackRock Inc. Chairman and CEO Larry Fink arguing that global “fragmentation” and reshoring of supply chains means policy makers will struggle to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In an interview with CNBC, Fink blamed geopolitical issues, with a decadeslong process of globalization giving way to “fragmentation.”
“If we want to have national security for food, national security interests for chips and energy, no one is asking the essential question, ‘at what cost?’” Fink said.
“Much of this has to do with why I believe inflation to be higher. This might be the right outcome for national security, I’m not making a value judgment,” Fink said. But investors and policy makers have yet to grapple with the implications of the cost of such a shift, which is likely to make inflation stickier for longer, he said.
Fink spoke after the world’s largest asset manager delivered first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street analyst estimates, although its profit and assets under management fell. BlackRock shares were up over 3% near midday Friday.
Good numbers for the inflation fight. Retail sales disappoint, while import export prices really fall nicely. Treasury yields little changed, same with equities.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.8% Cons: -0.3% Prev: 0.0%
Export Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.3% Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.4%
Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.6% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.2%
Retail Control (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.3% Cons: -0.3% Prev: 0.5%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 2.94% Cons: 5.90% Prev: 5.88%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -1.0% Cons: -0.4% Prev: -0.2%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.3% Cons: Prev: 2.8%
The s&p needs to break 4200 for a trend.
What I find amazing is that there are a large percentage of people in this country that still take Biden’s foreign policies seriously. The Democrats as the pro-Ukraine gang and the Alex Jones pro-Russian gang actually believe there are reasons why America’s foreign policies are the way they are other than the real reason. There are a lot of people in this country who actually take the American government seriously when it comes to its foreign policies and try to decipher what the government is saying as the reasons.
The conservatives and the right analyze it all as to think Biden is just senile and stupid. What a fatal mistake.
I am here to tell the reader why the Biden regime’s foreign policies are the way they are. The American foreign policies are so over the top, because the globalists who run the United States want to anger and frustrate the countries around the world to the point that they actually execute an offensive military strike against mainland United States. That’s it. That’s the force majeure. There is no other reason for the buffoonery. There are no mistakes here and when the reader realizes why the American’s foreign policies are so over the top foolish, then they will have the answer that I just gave you. There’s no other reason.
There is no viable alternative to the US dollar, America’s enemies know it, and that’s why they will eventually execute a military strike to undo the dollar hegemony.
That’s it. It’s that simple. The foolishness is an act and the burning of the fiscal and monetary bridges
are intentional, because the power elite that run the West and the US know what is coming. A force majeure. They are banking on it.
I no longer waste my time attempting to interpret American foreign policy except to see that it conforms with my ongoing thesis… So far, so good.
IMF urges Biden administration to cut spending, help Fed bring down inflation
The IMF is recommending the Biden administration rein in spending to better balance the United States’ debt load and help the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tamp down inflation.
“It seems clear to me that from the viewpoint of medium and long-term prospects, there is a very strong case for fiscal adjustment in the US,” Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.
“It also seems opportune as a way of helping the Fed in the fight against inflation, thereby moderating necessary increases in interest rates.”
Fed Balance Sheet
Released On 4/13/2023 4:30:00 PM For wk 4/12,2023
Level prior; $8.632 T
latest; $8.615 T
Total Assets – W/W
prior $-73.558 B
latest $-17.587 B
Reserve Bank Credit – W/W
prior $-96.859 B
latest $-12.692 B
The problem with many of these developing economies is that their leaders don’t understand abstract macroeconomic theories and realities. Lula has a great point, but I’ve been reading these articles for 20 years. Eventually a war will undo the whole currency regime.
Lula Backs BRICS Currency to Replace Dollar in Foreign Trade
1 hour ago
(Bloomberg) — Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on BRICS nations to come up with an alternative to replace the dollar in foreign trade, supporting China’s crusade against US global dominance just as he prepares to meet with President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Lula’s remarks were made on Thursday during a visit to the Shanghai-based New Development Bank, an institution created by BRICS countries, which, along with Brazil and China, include Russia, India and South Africa. Former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff is the bank’s new chief executive.
“Why can’t an institution like the BRICS bank have a currency to finance trade relations between Brazil and China, between Brazil and all the other BRICS countries?” he said. “Who decided that the dollar was the (trade) currency after the end of gold parity?”
Beijing has ramped up efforts to boost the use of its own currency in foreign trade. Last month, Brazil and China took steps to make it easier to settle their foreign trade operations in yuan or reais, with the stated goal of reducing costs by eliminating a third currency from the transactions.
Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, who’s accompanying Lula in his trip to China, said local currencies are already used in bilateral trade through instruments such as credit receipts. The goal, he added, is to expand mechanisms that allow trade operations to be settled without the intermediation of a third currency.
“The advantage is to avoid the straitjacket imposed by necessarily having trade operations settled in a currency of a country not involved in the transaction,” he told reporters in Shanghai.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) just posted this article in their email subscription. GATA is showing it as proof that gold prices should be going higher. Unfortunately, gold is moving higher in all currencies and is holding up relatively well versus the greenback.
If the preachers of dollar collapse want to remain true to their word, they should be looking to buy all income-generating assets as asset prices will move higher as those with the dollars seek to unload them.
The great non-sequitur of the dummy alt-media; the dollar is collapsing, so buy gold and dump income-generating assets. I say buy all income-generating assets. Own gold as well, but it’s not exclusively a dollar problem. It’s a fiat currency problem and all of America’s enemies transact and fiat currencies. The great double-mindedness of the unwashed alt-financial media causes personal financial losses and heartache to those who listen.
I ask, if the dollar is going to evaporate into a oblivion, I would be anticipating cash flows from income-generating assets to continue to escalate, as they already have. This means that the price of the houses in which the GATA secretary and treasurer reside will continue to move higher as well. Everything will move higher, but wages will not keep up.
This makes a lot of sense to me as someone who isn’t in tune with how the game of finance works. You stated it very well. Houses in my area have been going like hotcakes again and wonder if these buyers are reading your articles. Convert dollars into land as a store of value? Or rental houses. I almost want to buy a junk house for cheap just to sit on it and resell at a later date. Yes there will be interest payments but I’m wondering if the ridiculous rise in property prices can more than make up for that. I know you like the rental model, but having never participated as a landlord, I’d hate to try and learn in this climate.
I have been reading that the US Treasury I bond series is in for a sharp down tick in the interest rate it provides holders. Evidently the upcoming 6-month reset is going to be significantly lower than in the past year or two. Based on what the reset rate will be, I no longer recommend I bonds. I would just stick with money market funds instead.
Yeah I was looking at that too plus the more recent ones have a fixed rate whereas the ones from a year or two ago when the 6mo rate hit 9.62 the fixed rate was 0. With the rate coming down and the new issue bonds getting a .4 or .5 fixed rate they will outperform the older ones in a few years. Shame these drop so rapidly compared to the cost of actual stuff – inflation for the masses certainly has not decreased rapidly like the rates of these bonds are
Overall, good numbers for inflation. Jobless claims creeping up, too. This month’s data points have looked good at both the producer and consumer level.
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,810K Cons: 1,814K Prev: 1,823K
Core PPI (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.1% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
Core PPI (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 3.4% Cons: 3.4% Prev: 4.8%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 239K Cons: 232K Prev: 228K
PPI (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.5% Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.0%
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.2%
PPI (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 2.7% Cons: 3.0% Prev: 4.9%
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 3.6% Cons: 3.1% Prev: 4.5%
These numbers certainly don’t help the USD as many are predicting an end to the rate hikes are in sight. Inflation higher in Europe and elsewhere. Rate hikes likely elsewhere, especially the countries dependent on energy imports.
BOJ’s Ueda Highlights Risk of Inflation Falling Below Target
(Bloomberg) — New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a dovish tone once again by highlighting the risk of inflation slowing below the central bank’s target.
US-Saudi Oil Pact Breaking Down as Russia Grabs Upper Hand
For the global economy writ large, lower oil supply and higher prices is bad news. The major exporters are the big winners, of course. For importers, like most European countries, more expensive energy is a double blow — dragging on growth even as inflation rises.
The US falls somewhere in between. As a major producer, it benefits when prices rise. But those gains — unlike the pain of higher pump prices — aren’t widely shared.
Bloomberg Economics’ SHOK model predicts that for every $5 increase in oil prices, US inflation will rise by 0.2 percentage point — not a dramatic change, but at a time when the Federal Reserve is struggling to bring prices under control, not a welcome one either.
There are three key reasons why more such shocks may be in store: The geopolitical shift, the maturing of shale, and the Saudi spending splurge.
Remember when XOMs dividend yield was slightly more than 9%?
Check out the 3-yr chart of XLE and XOP.
Owning any of these assets would have provided the perfect hedge against higher gas prices and general price inflation.
Very good numbers this morning. Markets loving them. Only YoY core ticked up vs. last month.
Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.5%
Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 5.6% Cons: 5.6% Prev: 5.5%
CPI (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.4%
CPI (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 5.0% Cons: 5.2% Prev: 6.0%
Real Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.1% Cons: -0.2% Prev: -0.4%
On CNBC this morning, Warren Buffett was gushing and heaping praise on Fed Powell. Buffett called him his hero. The reason is simple as those with the income generating assets have been amazingly and richly rewarded.
US Families Find Some Relief as Prices of Many Household Necessities Retreat
Closed on my first ever cash out . Have a contract on another home. Loan to asset value on both will be 25 percent. Have nothing to lose. Took some cash out of stocks too which makes me feel better. Thanks wouldn’t have done it without your advice.
I think it’s a good move. Don’t know your specs, but I did the same thing last October. Love the low leverage, and you can pocket two rents.
When I have a paid off SFR I always contemplate a cash out for another property. Great tax benefits and two rents are better than one!
Note: M2 is not yet “collapsing” and even if the monetary authorities tried to decrease its post-covid stimulus rise, velocity could increase as currency holders increasingly lose confidence in the actions of Western governments like the Biden regime, as well as the Fed’s ability to properly respond to adversity. The buffoonery was not a mistake. It allowed the black horse to emerge.
Tumbling Money Supply Alarms Economists Who Foresaw Inflation
•Tightening ‘gone too far’ as money supply signals recession
•Unfashionable since the 1980s, monetarists gain attention
(Bloomberg) — Britain’s money-supply economists, who emerged from obscurity in the pandemic by correctly anticipating sky-high inflation before anyone else, are sounding the alarm again.
Money supply growth is collapsing in the UK, eurozone and US, and they read that as a warning of recession and deflation. Central bankers have raised interest rates too far and, if the so-called monetarists are proved right again, they say there should be a “clear out” of officials.
Those views are held by British economists Simon Ward, economic adviser to Janus Henderson, and Tim Congdon, the UK’s leading voice on the subject and once an adviser to Margaret Thatcher when she was prime minister.
Their analysis jars with the mainstream consensus that economies are starting to pick up and inflation was caused by supply shocks and energy prices. But for monetarists, growth and inflation are a function of the quantity of money in circulation and its velocity — the number of times it changes hands. Those measures are now pointing to a slump.
Congdon and Shaw have argued that central banks’ vast quantitative easing programs and sharp rate cuts in the pandemic led to double-digit money supply growth across the US and Europe. A year later inflation was above target and on course for 10%.
Today, money supply is plummeting. In the eurozone, the six month rate of change of M3 broad money, which measures deposits and cash equivalents of up to three year maturities, is the weakest since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2010. M1 narrow money, cash and overnight deposits, is negative for the first time since the currency bloc’s birth in 1999, RBC Capital Markets strategists said.
In the UK, real M4 growth – cash and sterling liabilities of up to five years – has fallen steeply below trend, Ward said. “Annual broad money growth rates in the UK and Eurozone are well below their 2010s averages – associated with below-target inflation,” Ward said by email. “This is extremely worrying and suggests recession, disinflation and deflation.”
Vincenzo Inguscio, a London-based volatility strategist at Nomura, warned that a recent contraction in the US of M2, which measures cash in circulation plus dollars in bank and money-market accounts, suggests the Federal Reserve has pushed too hard on the monetary brakes. “People need to keep an eye on the money supply dynamic when it swings so much,” he said.
To tackle the highest inflation in four decades, central banks have raised rates at the fastest pace since the late 1980s and are shrinking QE to cancel the money they created. Congdon says the money data shows they should have stopped hiking some time ago.
Similarly, Ward wants officials to stop shrinking their balance sheets through so-called “quantitative tightening.” Cutting rates should even be considered, “probably by a lot.”
“They need to restore positive money growth,” Ward said. “The monetarists won the inflation forecasting contest, but the central bankers claim that was a fluke. Now for the rematch. If the central bankers lose this one, and we move into recession or deflation, will there finally be a reckoning and clear-out?”
Falling money supply may anticipate deflation but it may also simply reflect the recent banking crisis and instability in financial markets caused by the aggressive rate-rising cycle.
RBC says eurozone money is merely rotating to other areas of the banking system but, even so, “loan and money creation is slowing down dramatically in the euro area.” Trends are more concerning in the US, it added, where deposits are “exiting the banking system” and putting “liquidity pressures” on the banks.
Ward said the banking turmoil threatens to make the money supply crunch worse, as lenders “turn risk averse” and restrict credit. For Congdon, the issue is severe enough to warrant a change in the central bank framework.
He wants the BOE’s open letter system, under which the governor must explain to the Chancellor of the Exchequer why inflation is more than 1 percentage point off target, to incorporate a reference to broad money.
“The quantity of money must be on the central bank dashboard. If it is not there, central bankers will be as dangerous as people who drive cars without looking at the speedometer,” he said.
Congdon believes “the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are all to blame for the far above-target inflation rates from which their economies now suffer.” He added: “They will also be to blame for the recessions that will hit these economies from mid-2023.”
BOE officials have pushed back. Silvana Tenreyro, an external member of the monetary policy committee, says it is wrong to blame QE for soaring price growth. “QE affects the economy only to the extent it affects interest rates. There is no separate ‘money’ channel that can unleash inflation,” she said at the Scottish Economic Society annual conference in Glasgow last Tuesday.
In a speech last year, ironically titled “What did the monetarists ever do for us?”, BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill argued that modern economics embraces some monetarist ideas but rejects how it views policy is transmitted because that is “widely seen as discredited” since the mid-1980s, when Congdon was at his most influential.
“I doubt that monetarism will be embraced by either the academic or central bank communities in the coming years,” Pill added. A BOE spokesperson declined to comment.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
M2 may look like it’s really falling here, but that’s not the only determinant of inflation. Indeed, it’s falling from a very high level, but if we look at the second chart we can see that M2 velocity is beginning to increase as well.
If M2 velocity begins to increase back to historic trends, that would be a result of the Fed’s inability to sterilize the additional money as well as the average consumer losing confidence in the currency itself. A higher velocity is the result of a higher money turnover and would show that people are less willing to hold it. This is part of the reason why I am having a tough time buying an additional property as I am dealing with other cash buyers. It seems less people are willing to hold on to the cash.
God is making his judgment very clear and visible for some of a few of us so the savviest and better connected we are spending and investing our time and money in a very different way and in an increased velocity and preparedness.
Not in gadgets, expensive cars and houses, holidays, furniture… not in hedonistic drugs, sex and rock and roll…
We should just invest on protecting ourselves and our loved ones the best possible way we can for the judgment coming.
The question is: why do the fish feed at a frenzy before a storm?…
After the Covid scam and the poison vaccines, it is not just that we lost our confidence in the monetary authorities or in the institutions, we lost our confidence on the society as a whole.
The emperor’s new clothes were that he paraded naked. Yes, the emperor paraded naked during the Covid scam and his true colors were there to anyone with keen eyes and discernment to see.
The reality of a whole society accepting forced vaccines and confinements without a any complains was horrible enough for many of us to raise all of our alarms and realize that if you are a Christian and you believe in your spiritual freedom and have got faith in God you are in this society as alone, solitary and isolated as Abraham, Isaac and Jacob were in Canaan looking after their sheep in their humble tents, or as the Christ was during his short ministry in Roman Judea trying to revive the ancient and truthful religious laws to the corrupt Pharisees and Sadducees .
Personally speaking, I have lost most of the prior confidence I held in the Fed’s ability to maintain monetary homeostasis. I had confidence going back to 2012 and up to 2021. Unfortunately, the bridge has been burned and the catalysts for the new system have been injected. It has been purposely set up this way.
I suspect it’s going to be a race for physical assets and no matter what the governments due to restrain asser inflation like house prices and rents, it will only have a small effect. I feel sorry for the average wage slave.
The USD may be failing, but the ruble is dying faster. The chart below shows the USD /RUB exchange rate.
MarketWatch, April 10, 4:39 EDT
Russian ruble falls to lowest level against U.S. dollar in a year. Here’s what’s driving it lower.
Falling oil prices and fears about capital flight helped push the ruble to its weakest level against the dollar in a year on Monday, the latest milestone in a dramatic reversal of fortune for the currency.
The Russian government has historically kept a tight grip on its currency, but international sanctions and falling oil and gas prices have made stabilizing the ruble more difficult
Falling oil prices and fears about capital flight helped push the Russian ruble to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar in a year on Monday, the latest milestone in what has been a dramatic reversal of fortune for the currency.
The ruble showed surprising resilience against the U.S. dollar last year despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the dollar falling 2.7% against the Russian currency in 2022.
But a changing backdrop both at home and abroad has weighed on the ruble since the start of the new year, currency analysts and economists said.
Since Jan. 1, the greenback has appreciated by more than 12% against the ruble, according to FactSet data. This makes the ruble the second-worst-performing major emerging-market currency after the Argentine peso, according to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
On Monday, the U.S. dollar rose 0.7% to 81.55 to log its highest level against the ruble since April 11, 2022, according to FactSet. That’s on top of the dollar’s 4.5% advance against the Russian currency from last week, its biggest weekly advance since September, according to FactSet.
While the Russian government has historically kept a tight grip on its currency, international sanctions and falling oil and gas prices have made stabilizing the ruble more difficult, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute for International Finance, in commentary emailed to MarketWatch.
As a result, movements in oil prices are having a bigger impact on the ruble.
Other economists highlighted fears of capital flight and additional concerns that have been exacerbated by U.S. and European efforts to isolate Russia’s economy.
“The international financial chokehold on Russia was maybe slow to take effect, but it’s having the desired impact,” Chandler said.
Falling oil and gas prices are also depriving the Russian government of much-needed revenue, both Chandler and Brooks said.
Oil and gas budget revenues fell by 45% during the first quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. The report blamed a decline in the price of Ural crude, the benchmark that covers Russia’s output, as well as a drop in natural-gas exports.
The ruble’s decline since the start of 2023 has been swifter than some economists had expected. Capital Economics had forecast the ruble to weaken to 75 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2023, but the ruble has already fallen well below that level.
An aggregate forecast compiled by Bloomberg had called for the ruble to end this year at 80 to the dollar. That has also proved too optimistic.
A recent report in the Russian press claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin would allow domestic gas producer Novatek to purchase Shell’s stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural-gas project in the Russian Far East for 95 billion rubles, or nearly $1.2 billion, has also weighed on the ruble, according to Chandler.
That’s because traders expect that Shell would try to exchange any ruble proceeds from the deal for dollars or euros. Shell didn’t return a request for comment from MarketWatch.
If expectations for a global recession prove correct, this could add even more pressure to oil prices, and by extension to the ruble, Brooks said.
Even the recent production cut announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, has failed to induce a meaningful lift in crude prices. Brent crude for June delivery fell 94 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $84.18 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe Monday. Brent crude prices have fallen by roughly 20% since April 1, 2020, according to FactSet data.
Of course, the weakness in the ruble does come with a silver lining for the Russian economy, which has struggled since the start of the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“A weak ruble makes Russian goods very cheap,” Chandler pointed out.
If the reader disagrees with my USD assessment, that’s fine. Just keep in mind that if the dollar does what you think it’s going to do, what do you think that will do to asset prices?
This bout of inflation we are witnessing is not a temporary thing, but will continue as global confidence wanes in fiat currencies.
If you think housing is expensive now, just wait. If we think stock prices are expensive, keep waiting for a correction while the global dollar holders rush to buy anything priced in dollars. That will include your house.
I am having a very difficult time locating a property to purchase. There are cash offers now at virtually all listings I’m interested in. I am competing against other cash buyers.
By the time war comes as a result of the failure and frustration caused by the actions and US Fed and US Govt, inflation from a loss of confidence will wipe out most average people.
Hard to see a war when business is booming with China. Tesla even though they did open a gigiplant, them and many other corporations have plans to open up new facilities in China this year. Why not in the USA? Maybe they know who the winner of this conflict will be.
Bitcoin just broke 30k at a turtles pace, staircasing upwards for a month. Before it would uptick thousands within a few days, so not sure why the slow motion uptrend. I can see now that the BTC doom and gloom from FTX and such was a chance to buy in. Bank stocks are going back up slowly too, which maybe the recent bank doom news was a chance to buy in, FRC, PACW, BAC, SOFI, SCHW, etc….
I’m wondering if they let this rally ride or what type of news if any will be used to kill it.
PPSI close to that 5 range, wouldn’t hold too long past that if it makes it there. CYN still above $1, wondering when that compliance PR going to show up, large cash position so there should not be an offering until a ways after that.
Speaking of bank stocks that are upticking, SI still brewing for a squeeze, especially if a decent PR comes out, although may not happen. CS still in the game and could uptick a bit until the UBS merger.
BBBY ER coming up, guidance will tell the tale, at this all time low point, some shorts may cover before RS happens. Tomorrow is CPI day so should be fireworks or fizzle outs going on, especially with BTC.
CPI huge soon.
CYI already released their compliance PR.
I would not hold much PPSI above 5. Sell off as price rises.
RSs are a killer. Look what happened to OUST the past week… Ouch
Ah yep just saw that 8k from March 28th. I need different watchlist. Usually companies get more headline announcements on regaining compliance. Wondering if CYN could be an AI connected play, OUST should be sympathy as they are partnered. Hard to see a hyped up company like OUST get beat up, and crap stock like WISH not tank. I’m seeing more than a few stocks hit .30-.50 cent area and then uptick back to dollar land.
Many of spikes going on today with CXAI, SMX, IDAI….I guess money that was on the sidelines coming back in bigtime as these stocks should not be going up as much as they did. See GFAI for an example of a low float pump.
I assume all BTC related is going to continue?
What would be the catalyst to tank BTC at this point, regulation news? My chart showing possible 34k-36k until something comes out. FTX chatter on a comeback. Could bode well for SI.
I rechecked your VRME pick and I think it’s headed over $2 eventually sometime month, maybe even tomorrow. Long list of recent insider buys, smaller float, increasing volume.
BTC looks really good for now. Still drifting higher overnight. Your targets look doable here.
An interesting article. It’s great having cash and many firms are buying up their own debt at a steep discount.
Private Equity’s Latest Money-Making Trade: Buying Its Own Debt
•Advent, CD&R, Elliott boost bets in portfolio companies
•Banks offering steep discounts to shed debt stuck on books
April 12, 2023 at 6:00 AM EDT
Some of the world’s top private equity firms are scooping up the debt of their own portfolio companies from banks at steep discounts as they seek juicy returns amid a lull in deal making.
Financial Chaos at 12,000 Feet: Dollars Are Vanishing in Bolivia
(Bloomberg) — The line starts forming outside the central bank in downtown La Paz in the dead of the night. Hunkered down under blankets and sipping hot chocolate to fend off the chill at 12,000 feet up in the Andes, they wait for hours and hours for a chance to get their hands on what has perhaps become the hardest thing to find in all of Bolivia: dollars.
There are few, if any, at commercial banks or currency-exchange houses or even in the black market, where traders work from corner kiosks in the shadow of the central bank.
“Imagine the amount of time we’re wasting,” said Ismael Vargas, “on a transaction that should be simple.” Vargas, a lawyer, stood in line for six hours and, in the end, was told to come back in seven weeks to get the $5,000 he wanted.
The crisis here has been long in the making. Years of neglect hollowed out the dominant export industry, natural gas. But the sudden deepening of the financial squeeze also reveals the pain that’s rippling across the globe — from the headquarters of Silicon Valley Bank to the finance ministries of troubled developing economies like Turkey and Zambia — as the Federal Reserve extends its all-out push to quell inflation into a second year.
Running low on gas and suddenly unable to borrow from bond markets at the higher rates engineered by the Fed, the socialist government of Luis Arce finds itself desperately short of the money needed to support the local currency. The boliviano has been pegged at a rate close to 7-per-dollar since the commodity boom years of the aughts.
Central bank coffers are so depleted — the latest report put the figure at $372 million, enough to only cover two weeks of imports — that Arce is now pushing lawmakers to overturn a law so that he can sell off some of the country’s 43 tons of gold for cash.
One currency dealer explained the growing angst in La Paz this way: He sold dollars till he ran out of them; then people started scooping up the euros he had; when those were gone, they turned to Chilean pesos and Peruvian soles — anything to protect the value of their money if the peg is busted.
Like all others in the trade, the dealer asked not to be identified. The job’s become too risky. Thirteen people were arrested on suspicion of black-market trading in one day alone last week, part of the crackdown that has become a hallmark of the Arce government’s response to the crisis.
“Essentially, the country has run out of dollars,” said Antonio Saraiva, a Bolivian economist who teaches at Mercer University in Atlanta. “When people see other people lining up, and spending the night there to keep their position in the line, everybody is saying this is bad.”
Morales and Chavez
Bolivia’s current energy crunch can be traced back to 2006, when the leftist leader Evo Morales rose to power. Weeks after his victory, he flew to Caracas, where his mentor and close ally, Hugo Chavez, urged him to follow Venezuela’s lead and increase state control of its gas industry. Four months later, it was done. Bolivia nationalized gas fields and refineries run by Repsol SA, TotalEnergies SE and Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
At first, it worked out great. International prices for oil and gas were soaring and Bolivia was raking in cash, which Morales, unlike his counterpart in Caracas, doled out prudently. The economy more than quadrupled in size during his administration, poverty plunged, life expectancy rose and the number of children finishing primary school rose to almost 100%.
But Morales failed to earmark adequate funds to allow the state-run gas giant to invest in exploration. Gas reserves started to dwindle and so too did overseas sales, which at their peak accounted for almost half of all exports at $6 billion. This revenue is down 51% from 2014 and set to completely disappear by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.
Last year Bolivia became a net fossil fuel importer for the first time since the 1990s, posting a $1.3 billion deficit.
“It’s necessary to invest aggressively in exploration and developing fields,” Finance Minister Marcelo Montenegro told reporters last month. “The Bolivian economy is currently paying the price for not having made this aggressive investment.
Arce, who served as finance minister for much of Morales’s 14 years in office, is trying to reverse the decline with seven exploration wells planned for this year. His government has taken advantage of tight global gas markets to charge higher prices for its waning exports, and is developing domestic biofuels.
He’s also turning to Bolivia’s lithium deposits, the largest in the world. In January, Arce signed a $1 billion deal with Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. to tap into the reserves in Bolivia’s giant salt flats. But Bolivia needs more highways and additional partners to scale up its potential — things that are unlikely to happen anytime soon, analysts say.
Recent government missteps have only further stoked the currency crisis. The central bank stopped reporting the foreign reserves figure in February and the government last month called on people to scale back their purchases of dollars.
Bolivians responded by rushing out to buy more. For some of them, the country’s hyper-inflationary past is fresh in their minds.
Violeta Lopez remembers watching her parents stuff wads of bolivianos into backpacks to go grocery shopping in the 1980s. “It was an enormous amount of money but it was worth nothing,” Lopez, a housewife, said as she waited in line for dollars at the central bank. “That’s why we’re so alarmed.”
Annual inflation peaked at more than 20,000% back then. It’s 2.6% today, which makes it one of the lowest rates in the world — less than half that of the US, UK or Germany. As Lopez sees it, though, a busting of the peg could trigger a sudden spiral in prices. She was looking to buy $30,000.
The central bank has referred to what is happening as a “speculative attack on our economy.”
“THERE IS NO shortage of dollars, and all the financial entities are able to change money,” screams a post on the central bank’s website. “Our economy is strong, solvent and stable.”
Last week, the bank began requiring would-be buyers of dollars to make appointments online, to cut the number of people queuing outside its headquarters.
Officials at the central bank, finance ministry and the presidency all declined to comment for this story.
Bolivia’s borrowing costs in international markets jumped last year as the Fed and other major central banks started raising interest rates, then rocketed higher in recent weeks as the country’s foreign reserves plunged. The government’s dollar bonds due in 2028 now yield more than 20%, up from 6.2% at the start of 2022.
“Last year, they couldn’t sell” bonds, said Jose Espinoza, a former central bank director during the short-lived administration of Jeanine Anez. “This year, they definitely won’t be able to.”
Shut out from the bond market, the country only managed to bring in $560 million from all types of foreign financing last year, not even enough to cover the $920 million it had to pay back, according to Espinoza. This upends a model the government had used for years in which it tapped foreign creditors to make up for the shortage of dollars created by slumping gas exports.
“This creates a big hole for them,” Espinoza said.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
This $6 trillion problem threatens to push inflation even higher
Fox Business; 7 hours ago
Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars to ease financial conditions and keep banks afloat. Many economists predicted record inflation would result. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pulled an ace out of his sleeve. He paid banks to park much of that money at the Fed and limit its inflationary effects.
That victory was evanescent, and now the bill is coming due for the Fed’s quarantining almost $6 trillion to keep a lid on inflation.
The multitrillion-dollar corner that the Fed painted itself into is a now costing $275 billion annually, more than the Treasury spent on all veterans’ benefits and services last fiscal year. And it’s going to get worse.
Paying interest on reserves “sterilized” the money because any cash kept at the Fed was not being lent out by banks, and therefore wasn’t multiplying as it normally would through fractional reserve banking. But the inflationary pressure from Congress’ deficit spending has put the Bernanke model of sterilizing money on steroids.
In the spring of 2021, the Fed began ratcheting up its reverse repurchase agreement operations, or reverse repos. These are short-term loans to the Fed with Treasury securities serving as collateral and provide quick but not lasting adjustments to liquidity levels in financial markets.
Reverse repos are a way to rapidly, but briefly, take cash out of circulation and keep it at the Fed. Conversely, if the Fed simply sold the securities in open market operations, the money from those sales would just cease to exist, which puts upward pressure on interest rates, including those for new Treasuries.
Reverse repo operations combined with interest on reserves has turned into a multitrillion-dollar attempt to solve the problem of creating money for the government to spend while minimizing the inflationary impact.
Currently, the Fed pays over $750 million in interest every day to banks, hedge funds and other large financial institutions that have parked $5.7 trillion in its vaults. A year ago, that daily interest payment was only $18 million. But that was when the amount needing to be sterilized was much smaller and when interest rates were much lower.
Now, like Frankenstein’s monster, the Fed’s anti-inflation inventions are turning on their creator. The interest payments are adding three-quarters of a billion dollars to the money supply daily, working at cross purposes to the Fed’s higher interest rates, meaning higher rates would be needed to stop inflation snowballing.
At this point, the Fed has no exit strategy. If it stops paying interest on reserves and running massive reverse repo operations, it will immediately add $5.7 trillion of liquidity to the market – about 25% of the entire money supply. The extra liquidity would unleash an inflationary tsunami dwarfing that of the 1970s.
The Fed’s dilemma first manifested in September 2019 when it lost control of the repo market and, subsequently, the federal funds market. In a panicked attempt to regain control of interest rates, the Fed abandoned prudently reducing its balance sheet, begun less than two years prior.
Hedge funds and other financial institutions learned two valuable lessons in 2019: U.S. Treasuries are not “risk free” when it comes to losing value, and the Fed is still in the bailout business for financial markets.
Treasuries are often pledged for multiple loans – rehypothecated – mimicking fractional reserve banking’s structure of pretending a dollar is in two places at once. Just as a bank collapses when too many depositors try to get their money at once, if multiple parties try to sell the same rehypothecated Treasury, the financial system runs out of funds.
With the latest bank failures, institutions failed to hedge against the interest rate risk of Treasuries and the Fed again stepped in, offering to take those devalued securities at par as collateral on new loans.
Sterilizing trillions of dollars by paying banks and hedge funds to store it at the Fed has hidden the inflationary impact of money creation, but also caused misallocations of capital and planted systemic risks in the bond market. As the Fed now pairs rate hikes with a return to money creation via its balance sheet, it is effectively attempting to control the yield curve and further distort the economy, storing up yet more trouble for the future.
With each monetary manipulation, the Fed digs itself – and the nation – deeper into the hole.
The central bank needs to face reality instead of trying to warp it: you cannot spend, borrow and print trillions of dollars and expect no negative consequences. The sins of the past always catch up to you, be they moral or monetary.
None of what this writer mentions was left to chance. The NWO engineers decided 2020 was the year to ignite the current monetary system. We have previously discussed everything he wrote about.
While the invention of QE in 2008 could have been sustainable indefinitely, as long as the fiscal restraint was there, the powers decided to ignite it with inflation fuel. The causes of inflation are comprised of several components, and includes a loss of confidence in the currency(ies). This component is something the world has not seen in a long time. Look at what Trump, then especially Biden did to fiscal prudence. The Fed owners knew like we did that the inflation wasn’t transitory, though Powell had no discretion on his actions. He is an actor.
Inflation will not come back down ever until the Great Reset. How else will the adversary get us to go along with their solution?
There are no mistakes here. Inflation was left to blaze on purpose. The barn door for the black horse of revelation to emerge was left open when the fiscal and monetary stimulus was introduced in 2020 and has left the stables. Monetary and fiscal authorities sat on their hands for almost 2 years and let inflation rip.
No mistakes. All four horsemen are manufactured. The pale horse of death is manufactured, as well as the black horse, and the red and white ones that will formally emerge later in the decade.
The only religion that will be allowed in the New World Order will be the pure doctrine of Lucifer. The most effective way for this objective to be achieved is to line all of the religious leadership with New World Order insiders and members of the secret societies. Destroy from within.
Dalai Lama apologises after video asking boy to ‘suck my tongue’
The punishment for abomination we all know is to be stoned to death WITH STONES. I appreciate the “Wth Stones”, it is so crystal clear.
The stone has an interesting property, the standard weight is established to be 14lbs. I have several small piles of 14 lb round stones. They are pretty easy to handle and the most interesting property is that, when thrown, they do not bounce – all of the momentum is transmitted to the object that they strike. Any heavier, they are hard to throw with good velocity and ineffective. Any lighter and they just bounce, also ineffective.
2027; the year the prophecy of the popes will be fulfilled. The duration of the prophecy is fixed.
The prophecy begins with the election of Pope Celestine II in 1143. The election of Pope Sixtus V in 1585 marks the middle of the prophecy. The line attributed to Pope Sixtus V is “axle in the midst of a sign.”in this case the word sign denotes a prophecy. From the election of Pope Celestine II to Pope Sixtus V there was a duration of 442 years. If we move forward another 442 years we arrive at 2027.
We have no more than 4 years left until the prophecy is fulfilled. What lies on the other side of that prophecy, I don’t know, but the prophecy is quite revealing as to the circumstances.
In the final persecution of the holy Roman Church there will sit Peter the Roman who will pasture his sheep in many tribulations and when these things are finished the city of seven hills will be destroyed and the Dreadful Judge will judge his people. The end.
You all better start preparing. The time is now. There will be no collapses in the traditional sense, just the ongoing collapse in our way of life that will lead up to the Apocalypse.
Pope John XXIII, who was well regarded for his prophetic gifts, prophesied that the apocalypse would take place in 2033. This was determined as being 2,000 years plus the age of Christ at his crucifixion.
It has now been uncovered that Jesus was not born in year zero, but he was born a few years earlier. Even Pope Benedict XVI had determined that the Gregorian calendar was formulated in error and that the birth of Jesus was most likely three to six years prior to year zero. Thus, 2,000 years after Jesus’s crucifixion could be as soon as 2027.
I have no reason to doubt any of this anymore. It is obvious to any discerning man that the Pale horse and Black horse of Revelation have been released in the wake of covid. By the time the apocalypse formally commences the population will be ground down to a nub.
It’s no joke. We do not have much good time left to prepare.
The terrible Judge could simply decide which regions get resources and which go without. Millions die as a consequence. Who is ready for that?
If I were still in graduate school I would develop a microeconomic thesis and it would be one in which I would illustrate how the federal government’s energy policies provide a mechanism in which the oil market has taken on a structure that is effectively becoming oligopolistic in nature.
Though there are many individual players in the domestic oil industry, and by extension, Canada, the Biden regime and the federal government have enacted policies in which they help to create an almost uniform wall of discipline across the domestic players.
We have a group of oil players in the states that are highly disciplined and profitable, and in an almost uniform fashion, refuse to extend production out to where marginal revenue equals marginal cost. This has never happened in the United States before.
The reason is simple, up until last decade, the United States never had such large production capabilities in the past, and previously, the highly fragmented domestic industry continually produced oil even when individual marginal revenue was less than industry-wide marginal costs. The reason for this was twofold; each firm had its own break even point and many firms produced at a loss just to service debt. This clearly is no longer the case post-covid.
Thus, we have a cartel OPEC+ on one hand and a highly disciplined and profitable regime of production in the West.
I can draw a number of supply-demand curves to illustrate how this all works, yet the net result is an oil industry that is quickly becoming an effective oligopoly. The sets of charts I would draw to illustrate this would almost mirror the sets of charts I would draw to describe an oligopoly.
I would call the current structure of the oil industry a “modified oligopoly”. I would use this term, a term that I just invented, because the oligopolistic stimulus and catalyst are not coming from within the industry itself, but is exogenously exerted from the political regime. While we have hundreds of individual suppliers of size, government policy has caused the industry to drift toward becoming an oligopoly. While the oil industry may not look like an oligopoly, it has a sense of oligopolistic pricing power.
What this all means is that the equilibrium price of oil in the current marketplace structure will remain above the equilibrium price in a highly competitive market, even if the market looks competitive by many of the traditional measures.
This makes sense. Those who control the energy also control the world. There clearly is a concerted effort to control energy and food production. The “green energy “ movement is part of the plan to restrict energy production worldwide. Solar and wind power can never generate enough energy to make up the loss of oil and coal production. The cabal know this and it is part of their plan.
They are also attempting to control food production in the same way. Controlling the major sources of food supply is a perfect way to control the masses as everyone needs to eat.
This is why they are restricting fertilizer and also using global warming as a bogus excuse to restrict meat and dairy production by eliminating cows that supposedly contribute to global warming. It is all a lie.
Traders Traumatized by Volatile Treasuries Consider China Bonds
•Volatility in 10-year Chinese yield is near lowest since 2018
•Investors have shrugged off cut in reserve requirement ratio
(Bloomberg) — For bond investors rocked by the outsized swings in Treasuries in recent weeks, Chinese government debt must look like an oasis of stability.
On average, China’s 10-year yield has moved by less than one basis point daily since the start of the year, compared with seven basis points for its US counterpart, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its 30-day volatility is hovering near the lowest since 2018.
China’s normally-placid bond market has become even more tranquil of late as traders take to the sidelines seeking greater clarity on the monetary policy outlook. The relative calm is a double-edged sword: it boosts the notes’ appeal as a diversification play but also suppresses yields at low levels that may keep investors away.
A gauge of leverage in the market hit a record Thursday, indicating local demand is picking up. China watchers are waiting for official figures this month to see whether March’s global bond ructions enticed overseas funds to return, as suggested by data from the Institute of International Finance.
Foreign investors continued to trim their exposure to Chinese debt in the first two months of the year — partly due to relative yields — after dumping a record amount of the securities in 2022.
China Lured Investors as Hectic March Spurred Rest-of-EM Outflow
“Clarity in China’s economic prospects and monetary policy later this year is lacking, which created additional difficulty for bond trading,” said Qi Sheng, an analyst at Orient Securities Co. “One of the few practical strategies seems to be holding bonds for coupon return with more leverage.”
Bond investors seeking to gauge the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy have had little to go by, with recent data mixed. While an official gauge for the non-manufacturing sector jumped to the highest level since 2011 in March, a private survey showed the nation’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly eased.
Even the authorities’ move to lower the reserve requirement ratio for banks last month failed to rouse the market. The 10-year government bond yield has lingered near 2.86% since the cut was announced on March 17.
And bond bulls are getting few signals that even stronger monetary policy help is on the way.
China’s real interest rate level is “appropriate,” central bank chief Yi Gang said in early March before he was reappointed as governor. Lowering the RRR to provide long-term liquidity will remain an effective way to support the domestic economy, he added.
Still, foreign investors need to look past the near-term uncertainty, according to Jean Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
“Given that China is at the junction of emerging and developed markets, it is seen as a disruptor in asset allocation, both in equities and fixed income,” he said. Despite some short-term reduction in foreign ownership, “it will continue to increase over time and should be part of any portfolio allocation decision.”
Some twenty years ago and for a couple of years I worked as a waiter in a hotel with some really nice sea views to Sandown Bay in the Isle of Wight. For those not British, the Isle of Wight is a small island off the coast of South England, just over two hours from London. It has been a popular holiday destination since Victorian times with long white beaches, tached roof cottages, chines and promenade piers.
When foreigners go to some other country to work and live they usually go in packs, but I decided otherwise and I went there by myself, alone. I did not have any ties back home then, neither I understood anything around me, so I was free to go and so I went.
Well, I know people does not observe these king of things, not they talk about them, but apart for the cultural barrier and the language barrier, the thing that really shocked me the most were some casual but intimate conversations with some few Liverpool, London and Birmingham native good friends I made.
I remember them telling me, how they left these big English cities years before those twenty years ago, because these cities were getting too multicultural. I remember very well a Liverpool born fifty something small second hand shop owner telling me that the Isle of Wight was a melting pot of expats and refugees from many British cities that used to be white, like London.
Yes, London, for those all they do not know, it used to be white, until, working class and many middle class Londoners were forced to go away and left, many years ago by the SoS multicultural policies and were replaced with a lot of foreign nationals.
The sad reality is that there has been a many years effort to construct this Babel Tower as I discovered twenty years ago in a remote English island where God headed me to open my then too stupid eyes to the agendas now growing and multiplying like a metastasizing cancer.
England’s Hindu prime minister heaps praise on Britain’s Christian values and morals in his Easter message. I guess he knows more about that than the brainwashed Israelite remnants in the states and Europe. It’s sad that England can’t seem to find an upstanding Christian to be PM.
When we consider all types of fuels, including condensates, biofuels, etc., USA, Inc. is the monster energy petroleum producer. Shhh… don’t tell the dollar haters.
When OPEC cuts production they are really subsidizing the USA. In all truth the USA has enough oil to be self sufficient. Biden wants to choke USA oil production to make the USA dependent on foreign oil as a part of the Synagogue of Satan agenda to sink the USA. Also Biden wants to discourage domestic oil production to promote the SOS “green energy “ agenda. The energy crisis was a manufactured issue.
Biden is the domestic oil and gas industry’s most effective lobbyist. At some point I have to believe this isn’t by accident. The only conclusion I can make is that the Democrats have intentionally enhanced the entire US energy sectors, while foreign producers can take the blame.
Domestic oil firm shareholders are absolutely cleaning up. It is a truly remarkable turn of circumstances over the past few years.
When the US government forces cars to be electric, the domestic producers can ship off their production to Asia and elsewhere.
USA, Inc. on target to increase to 12.5mm barrels a day of crude oil over the next 12 mos., while the OPEC+ clowns swear they will cut.
USA, Inc. oil company shareholders benefit more than anyone else.
Top 10 Countries with the Highest Oil Production (barrels per day)
United States – 11,567,000
Russia – 10,503,000
Saudi Arabia – 10,225,000
Canada – 4,656,000
Iraq – 4,260,000
China – 3,969,000
United Arab Emirates – 2,954,000
Brazil – 2,852,000
Kuwait – 2,610,000
Iran – 2,546,000
In 2018, the United States surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer, despite the fact that several countries have larger total oil reserves. The main producers of oil in the United States are Texas, federally owned offshore facilities, New Mexico, and North Dakota. Alaska, Colorado, Wyoming, and California are also major contributors. In addition to being the world’s leading producer of oil, the U.S. is also the world’s largest consumer of oil. In light of this, the U.S. imports additional oil from several additional oil-producing countries.
Natural Gas Production by Country
Yearly gas production (MMcf)
1 United States 32,914,647,000
2 Russia 22,728,734,000
3 Iran 9,097,956,245
4 Canada 6,751,698,275
5 Algeria 6,491,744,560
6 Qatar 6,000,936,690
7 Norway 5,763,408,000
8 China 4,559,625,595
9 Saudi Arabia 4,231,796,450
10 UAE 3,178,738,465
Most of today’s Christian preachers are outright charlatans and are sleeping dogs with no bark. They are more concerned with not saying anything that could be construed as racist and hateful, lest they lose their 501(c)3 status.
To wit, I view the current and forming geopolitical landscape of the past few years in the wake of covid, with all the emerging alliances and all I see is Ezekiel 38-39. I mean it’s forming to a tee.
All I see is the US and Britain (Manasseh and Ephraim) dropping their readiness, while the rest of Israel (European nations) are like sitting ducks, more concerned about clean energy and multiculturalism.
The natives of the white Christian nations should be ashamed of themselves for being so easily duped. The immigrants of the past 50 years that have overwhelmed the financial coffers have been trained to come to make money while maintaining their previous heritage. White people have been duped by the adversary.This is why Jacob needed God’s protection, they’re naive.
Here’s a hint; God didn’t mean for your riches to shared with non-believers and those who were not meant to exploit the birthright promises for their personal gain.
War is coming and the West deserves to be hit hard. Maybe only then these people will drop their Hindu and Buddhist statues and their idol worship, dust off their grandma’s Bible and pray for divine intervention like never before.
Huawei Looks to Move Middle East HQ to Saudi Arabia
(Bloomberg) — Huawei Technologies Co. is looking to make Riyadh its headquarters for the Middle East amid a push by the Saudi government to position itself as a regional business hub and growing diplomatic and business ties with China, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Chinese company, which already has offices in the Saudi capital and other cities across the Middle East, is in talks with Riyadh authorities to upgrade its presence in the country, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.
A final decision hasn’t yet been made by Huawei, the people said. A spokesman for Huawei declined to comment. The company currently has headquarters for the region in Dubai and Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia announced that from the beginning of 2024 government entities will be restricted from doing business with foreign firms that don’t have regional headquarters in the country, as it looks to limit leakage out of its economy and attract foreign investment. Huawei has been boosting its presence in Saudi Arabia even as the US pushes allies to avoid the Chinese technology firm.
Government officials said about 80 companies had applied for licenses to move their headquarters to Riyadh at the end of last year.
Ties between Saudi Arabia and China have been growing. After a visit to Riyadh last year by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s the two countries signed $50 billion worth of agreements.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
US Consumer Prices Are Seen Staying Firm, Testing the Fed
Sat, April 8, 2023 at 4:00 PM EDT·7 min read
(Bloomberg) — US inflation was largely unwavering in March, with economists projecting a monthly increase in consumer prices on par with advances seen over the previous half year that will test the Federal Reserve’s mettle.
Government figures Wednesday are expected to show a 0.4% monthly gain in the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy and better reflects the scope of underlying inflation facing American households.
While softer than the 0.5% advance in the prior month, such an increase would match the September-February average and keeps year-on-year figures stubbornly high. That may help tip the scales toward another interest rate hike at the Fed’s May meeting, despite stress in the banking system and signs of a slowing economy.
Meanwhile, minutes of the Fed’s March 21-22 meeting, also released on Wednesday, may provide clues about the appetite for further policy tightening as well as views on the health of the banking system and lending.
The Fed’s speaking calendar is busy in the coming week and includes appearances by regional bank presidents John Williams, Patrick Harker, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari and Thomas Barkin.
US core CPI is seen rising 5.6% from a year ago, which would be an acceleration from February’s annual gain. Including food and fuel, the price gauge is forecast to climb by 5.1%, the smallest advance in nearly two years. The central bank’s goal, based on a different inflation metric, is 2%.
Since soaring to a four-decade high of 9.1%, the overall CPI has been retreating in step with falling energy prices. Those costs, however, may start to rise again after the OPEC+ announcement on April 2 of a surprise cut in crude production. Rising crude oil prices may bleed through to gasoline and jet fuel just as Americans begin their summer vacation planning.
Among other US economic reports, the government will release March retail sales. Economists project sales fell for the fourth time in the past five months, with high inflation restraining goods purchases and consumers allocating more of their discretionary incomes to services.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The March CPI report will offer glimmers of good news on disinflation. Plunging natural gas prices in California, aided by a state government credit, helped. But the goods news is likely transitory – oil prices are rising again after OPEC+ announced production cuts. If that results in persistently rising gasoline prices, it could offset any disinflation gains in the next few months.”
—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Jonathan Church, economists.
Elsewhere, Washington will steal the limelight as finance ministers and central bankers flock there for spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The IMF’s new economic forecast will be published on Tuesday, while a Group of 20 gathering of finance chiefs begins the next day.
Meanwhile, central banks in Canada, South Korea and Peru may all keep rates unchanged in the coming days.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will likely stick to the sidelines for a second time on Wednesday. He’s seen holding the benchmark overnight rate at a 15-year high of 4.5%, despite few signs the economy is gearing down.
Now Armstrong is saying his “Socrates” “quant computer” is predicting war for 2023 in it’s private blog, so you need to pay top dollar for getting access to this analysis of war of his “mighty” Socrates.
I would say this would be so laughable if it wasn’t so miserly. The “Pi cycles” man is probably copying and pasting this blog too to much instead of making any use of his famous and expensive all knowing Wizard of Oz that is, as he knows too well, a fraud and a complete waste of time and space.
And of course as he is not a Christian in any way he will not have any regrets to ask for money for an advise this blog gives for free and he will be patting himself on his back with a big smirk on his face to congratulate himself on how a smart guy he is.
I recall a number of years ago how
Armstrong disparaged Jesus in a couple Christmas time posts, while blaming the Roman soldiers for the crucifixion. Said Jesus sort of had it coming. Armstrong claimed to know so much about the Bible that he was pointing out errors in scripture, too. That’s when I stopped reading his blog. Perhaps 2016-2017 or so.
An unrepentant thief and liar will always be a thief and a liar. Anyone who subscribes to his stuff deserves to be fleeced.
There’s enough war going on around the world to claim to be right at any given moment. He’s like a savvy fortune teller that knows how to manipulate the customer
He is savvy and smart no doubt. And too he likes bluffing, and mostly to incite fear with his posts. You know when anyone claims to be all knowing and has such a rich substrate of easy to fleece poseur customers anything goes, as this kind of “superior” guys would let him claim and do whatever he wants and would be back for more each time as far as they can afford it.
So now Armstrong says WWIII is coming in 2023?…
WWWIII is coming unfortunately and for sure but still the pieces are not all together to this happening this year, not in some few years either in any way as this blog correctly predicts.
What a waste of time and space this guy is. Pay for it if you are silly enough and have money enough to waste on him.
As the saying goes, a fool and his money are easily parted.
Perhaps that’s why it’s the US dollar that will be converted to blockchain? Must have a lot of smoke screens to hide what is really going on.
Another laugher. The BRIC nations are stepping and fetching out of frustration. First, they deceived the West haters into believing they would enact a gold backed currency. Now, they are shilling a Blockchain replacement. These countries are either propagandizing or don’t understand basic 300-level university macroeconomic theory.
World War III will be the result of failure and frustration of the Western opposition. There is no viable alternative to the USD and a simple comprehension of the Triffin paradox explains it all.
BRICS World Currency Takeover: Is This The End Of Traditional Money?
The ambitious plan by the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to create a new global currency is not only an economic endeavor but also a technological one.
As these countries work together to establish a currency that could potentially reshape the global financial landscape, the technological aspects of this project are crucial to its success.
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