To download the podcast, right mouse click here (duration 19:59)
-Nothing has been left to chance; observations with SIVB and its aftermath
-The Fed and UST’s desire for a CBDC; what has been already done and what needs to still be done along this path.
-How much time is left?
-Some advice on buying beaten down stocks right now (just look at DBD for a clue)
-What the Fed is already doing to make the future a reality
-What all this means to landlords.
-Our predictions for oil came to pass, despite ZHs calls for $200.
15 thoughts on “March 18th podcast update; Observations, predictions, and recommendations”
CJ, when you drive across the woodrow wolfenson bridge observe the pedestrians. what branch of mankind are they from? and which branch is disappearing from ads?
the future of the empire city is people of color
i see no limit on the hiring of them by fed guv, no slowing down
my two cents CJ, as a dude from pee gee 1964-2015, i most strenuously suggest you get out of pee gee asap, and all of dee cee, because i see it escalate towards worse every time i visit,
you’re right, the equity movement will slowly erode your rights as a landlord, and if you hang in there ’til the last moment, hoping the movement will spare you, while watching the values of your property go up, I think you will be disappointed, because you will lose your gamble, because you’ll be stripped before you can countermeasure
take care, my fren
Credit Suisse Bonds Gain in a Weekend Trading Session
(Bloomberg) — As Swiss officials and UBS Group AG raced to put together a deal for the takeover of Credit Suisse Group Inc., bonds of the embattled lender rose in a rare weekend trading session.
One large dealer was quoting Credit Suisse bonds at levels that were as much as 6.5 points higher than Friday, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private activity in the over-the-counter market.
The bank’s $2.5 billion of senior unsecured bonds due in 2028 were up 6.5 cents on the dollar to a bid price of 99 cents, the person said. The bid price is what dealers are willing to pay for the bonds. They were being offered to investors at 102 cents on the dollar.
The same bonds traded Friday at 94.5 cents, according to the price-reporting system known as Trace.
At the prodding of regulators, UBS has put aside its initial opposition to a deal and is exploring possible structures that could be executed quickly to halt a deep crisis of confidence, Bloomberg News reported, citing people briefed on the discussions.
It’s the second straight weekend that bond dealers in New York and London were making markets in the securities of banks in crisis. In a rare Sunday trading session last weekend, the bonds of Silicon Valley Bank’s parent company gained as US government officials pledged to fully protect all depositors of the failed California lender.
BlackRock’s Hildebrand Taking Part in UBS, Credit Suisse Talks
(Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand is taking part in discussions as Swiss officials race to put together a deal for UBS Group AG to take over Credit Suisse Group AG.
The exact nature of Hildebrand’s role wasn’t immediately clear, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information. A BlackRock spokesman declined to comment on behalf of Hildebrand.
UBS is considering acquiring all or parts of Credit Suisse in a deal local regulators are trying to broker before the end of the weekend, after panicked investors dumped its shares and bonds following the collapse of several regional US lenders. Credit Suisse’s investment-banking and trading operations are a key sticking point in the talks, other people said.
Hildebrand, 59, has been a vice chairman at BlackRock for more than a decade, and before that was head of the Swiss central bank from 2010 until 2012. While there, he was a member of the SNB’s financial-stability board, which was created in the wake of the financial crisis. A former hedge-fund partner, he joined the central bank in 2003, becoming its youngest-ever policy maker.
While at the helm of the SNB, he forced UBS and Credit Suisse to boost capital buffers. He also lowered borrowing costs to zero and introduced the first currency ceiling since the 1970s to help protect the economy and fight deflation threats.
Hildebrand’s two-year stint as head of the central bank — the shortest ever for an SNB president — came to an abrupt end amid a scandal involving currency purchases by his then-wife. A probe concluded that her transactions didn’t breach any regulations.
BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink brought him on board to help expand relationships with institutional clients overseas.
BlackRock earlier Saturday denied that it’s working on a possible rival bid for Credit Suisse, after the Financial Times reported the New York-based asset manager is interested in a deal.
If you look at the chart, BTC quickly went down under 20k initially with the bank news, as SIVB was affiliated with bitcoin. Yet in a matter of seven days it recovered to almost 28k with that stable coin bailout news, and as of today still on an uptrend with decent volume. It was on a small rally since January. It went from 16k in December to 24k in Feb, so that took about 30 days to gain around 10k on no hype or news.
Wondering why more inflow went to the Crypto sector and not metals? Does this proves crypto has become the safehaven replacement, since it can be bought quick and easy? I’m assuming this event was a one off, which the jitters should last a few more weeks. As reminded in the podcast no collapse, just consolidations. With the billions of deposits and merge talks, do CS and FRC uptick next week? I would think banking stocks start to make a recovery, but anything can happen.
Contagion being their fear keyword and now we enter their financial vaccine cure phase. The bailout and merging news is starting to appear in the headlines, making the banking hype seem like everything is fine and okay as Yellen has just stated, so this means BTC and related stocks should slowly go back down. Or maybe this event will be a kickoff to an extended BTC rally, the exact opposite of the expected crypto winter that was being reported in December. Once again proving we should take the contra on the reported mainstream expectations.
Will CBDC be connected to BTC or can they coexist? I thought stable coins like USDT can’t go over $1 and what is backing that, nothing, money out of thin air? If so they may want BTC as high as they can pump it and this banking event could be the start that. I thought they would dispose of BTC and other cryptos as a currency competion to the upcoming CBDC.
Chris you said it was already known by the FED what was going to happen, before it happened, and isn’t that always the case with these big events. Like clockwork they had all the bailout liquidity immediately ready to save the day. The headlines are mostly free from Covid and Ukraine stories, that is old news, they are intentionally moving the populace along to follow what appears to be a pre written script.
Anyways fantastic podcast at just the right length for busy listeners. Thank you for letting us vent, express our opinions, and share ideas in your comment section!
Even Failed FTX getting in on the bailout theme for a comeback:
Midsize US Banks Ask FDIC to Insure All Deposits for Two Years
•Financial system risks more bank runs without aid, group says
•Deposits have been moving into firms seen as too big to fail
March 18, 2023 5:08pm EDT
(Bloomberg) — A coalition of midsize US banks asked federal regulators to extend FDIC insurance to all deposits for the next two years, arguing the guarantee is needed to avoid a wider run on the banks.
“Doing so will immediately halt the exodus of deposits from smaller banks, stabilize the banking sector and greatly reduce chances of more bank failures,” the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America said in a letter to regulators seen by Bloomberg News.
The collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank prompted a flood of deposits out of regional lenders and into the nation’s largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. Customers spooked by the bank failures were taking refuge in firms seen as too big to fail.
“Notwithstanding the overall health and safety of the banking industry, confidence has been eroded in all but the largest banks,” the group said in the letter. “Confidence in our banking system as a whole must be immediately restored,” it said, adding that the deposit flight would accelerate should another bank fail.
The expanded insurance program should be paid for by the banks themselves by increasing the deposit-insurance assessment on lenders that choose to participate in increased coverage, the group proposed.
The MBCA’s letter was sent to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
MBCA members include banks with assets of as much as $100 billion. There are at least 110 members of the coalition.
“It is imperative we restore confidence among depositors before another bank fails, avoiding panic and a further crisis,” the organization wrote. “While the cost of deposit insurance is not insignificant, the likelihood of it being needed is much, much smaller should all deposits be temporarily insured.”
Brent Tjarks, a representative for MBCA, declined to comment.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
Forgot to mention, informative podcast, CJ. Thanks.
A friend told me yesterday that a guy both of us know is having family health issues.
His mother just got put into an assisted living center, his brother is now on the waiting list for a heart transplant, his wife is sick and his pregnant daughter needs emergency gallbladder surgery, but they are trying to figure out a way to save the fetus. The whole family got injected. As far as I know of my friend is still okay. He’s in his early sixties and got the single J&J shot. At least he told me that when I was working with him a couple years ago.
My friend also told me that his brother is having worsening problems and that he’s having a hard time breathing at night. They can’t figure out what is wrong. He sleeps all day. He even spends top dollar and goes to Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. Here’s a hint, he’s a life long democrat.
Imagine if the synagogue never ensconced Trump into his position, the globalists using the Democrats would never be able to get away with any of the stuff they are doing. We really do have a one-party system while the adversary’s media continue to dwell and obsess on Trump. Whoever is running for president for the Democrats in 2024 will win. This is even true if it’s John Fetterman or a multiracial octopus. Watch for all sorts of stuff to be burped up from the gates of hell while the dumbasses vote themselves into perpetual slavery and poverty. They will embrace their Elysium.
The whole irony is that Trump is STILL a bigger promoter of the injections than the Dem party. He is still trying to take the credit for pushing their development. People are stupid and deserve their lot.
Bitcoin rallied after the stable coins were bailed out and received a defacto government guarantee as long as they play nice with regulators. BTC has responded well and I do not think its upside is wholly a safety trade.
Top Biden Adviser Says US Won’t Rush to Fill Petroleum Reserve
(Bloomberg) — The US is committed to replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but won’t rush to do so immediately despite the recent decline in oil prices, a top Biden administration official said.
“Why don’t we take this one day at a time,” Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security Amos Hochstein said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power.”
“We’ve seen a decline in oil prices, we’re seeing some crunch there,” Hochstein said. “We should take a deep breath and wait and see how this crisis right now impacts the oil and gas industry, production and what the profile is. So far prices have come down. We’re watching it very closely, we’ll continue to watch it over the next several days.”
Oil Slump Raises Prospect That US Will Try to Refill Stockpile
The SPR, which was designed to shield the country from supply disruptions, is currently at 371.6 million barrels, the lowest since the 1980s, after the historic release of 180 million barrels last year to tame gasoline prices in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
The administration previously laid out a plan to refill the reserve at prices close to $70 a barrel. WTI futures tumbled to almost $66 in New York on Wednesday.
President Joe Biden “is still committed to replenishing the SPR after extraordinary draws last year,” Hochstein said. “Nothing happens overnight. You have to decide that this is the right environment, so therefore you wait to see where the prices are going to be landing.”
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
No oil development for whites in Canada, but if you are “indigenous”, yes
Socialist provincial government on Canada’s Westcoast approves $2.4 billion Indigenous-owned LNG facility
Watch for that money pit to be a perpetual money loser that will have to be bailed out on an ongoing basis by the wealthy white folk living in Canada. According to statistics from realtor.com, 88% of all home home purchases from mid-2021 to mid-2022 in the United States were from Caucasian buyers. This is why they want to have the Caucasians cough up money and give it to the blacks in the form of reparations. This is just like in South Africa. Now the government in Canada has their own version of reparations and the wealthy white folk are going to have to cough up their money for some social egalitarian purpose. Of course the money will go down in a money pit just like if the blacks get their money in reparations. They’ll spend it all and it’ll be loaded with corruption.
Yep, seems like anti-white South Africa is a bit of a model for what they want to do in North America.
Done with malice aforethought… Multiculturalism brings down wage growth and helps the asset owners.
The multiculturalists should enjoy reading this DoD piece which enumerates the demoralizing effects of Fed monetary and Biden regime fiscal policies.
Shrinking savings and rising debt leave consumers on shaky financial footing
The events drew parallels to the 2008 financial crisis and are likely to cause banks to tighten up their lending, putting added pressure on already strained consumers.