NAR chief economist predicts ‘strong rebound’ in 2024
Lawrence Yun said home prices will rise 1% and sales will dip 7% next year before recovering in 2024, in contrast to a Fannie Mae forecast last month that predicted falling prices next year
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Home prices will rise slightly and sales will dip next year before making a comeback in 2024, according to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist.
Yun spoke Friday at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum of NAR’s annual conference, newly rebranded as NAR NXT, in Orlando. The forum is consistently the event’s most heavily-attended session, NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith noted as she introduced Yun, whom she called “the best chief economist in the world,” prompting cheers from the audience.
At the forum, Yun predicted that 2022 would end with home sales down 15 percent year over year and further decline 7 percent in 2023 before rising 10 percent in 2024.
He also forecast that home prices in 2022 would be up 10 percent year over year, increase a slight 1 percent in 2023 and then jump 5 percent in 2024.
That means a “strong rebound” in 2024, according to Yun.
“The prices will be mostly stable across the country [in 2023], meaning that half of the country will see minor price gains, the other half of the country will see minor price declines,” Yun told attendees, noting that some specific markets such as San Francisco may see a bigger price decline than 2 percent.
The forecasts assume that mortgage rates will hover around 7 percent after having potentially topped out earlier in the week on news of lower-than-expected inflation, according to Yun.
Mortgage rates have a big impact on home affordability. While the median income required to buy a median-priced home was $50,000 before the pandemic, it now stands at about $85,000 and real income — adjusted for inflation — has not risen to make up for it, according to Yun.
“That’s why we are seeing falling home sales,” he said.
“People’s income [that] they’re bringing home has not increased to this extent. First-time buyers, consequently, [are] at historically low levels.”
“The market today is like a frozen state for buyers [and] for sellers,” Yun said.
“But [Thursday’s] good information on inflation — 7% inflation is not normal, it’s still high — but at least it looks like we turned the corner and if consistently we seem to be turning the corner, we will begin to see some revival in the housing market.”
Yun’s forecast is in contrast to predictions from Fannie Mae, which anticipate that home prices will fall 1.5 percent and home sales will drop 21 percent in 2023. Such predictions must also be taken with a certain measure of salt. For example, a year ago Yun predicted that in 2022 home sales would dip 1.7 percent and home prices would fall 2.8 percent.
In 2023, home prices are unlikely to drop a lot for most of the country because for-sale inventory is still extremely limited, Yun told attendees from the stage Friday.
“Overall inventory conditions [are] much lower than historical and certainly much lower compared to the housing market crash that occurred in 2008,” Yun said.
“The inventory levels today are only one quarter of what it was during the price collapse that occurred. So we simply don’t have sufficient inventory.”
Distressed sales are only 2 percent of the market and nowhere near the 30 percent share seen during the Great Recession, according to Yun.
While Yun’s recent forecasts have touched on whether the country was in a recession, he’s never given a definitive opinion on the matter, but has consistently said that if there was a recession, it was an unusual one.
“One of the objective measures could be GDP, which is the broadest measurement of the economy, and we have two quarters of decline,” Yun said, pointing to the first two quarters of 2022.
“So maybe we were in a recession, but it was a very mild one. But the latest quarter shows it turned positive.”
According to the most recent data available, in the first week of November the median sales price was up 6.3 percent year over year and homes were moving at a “swift” median 22 days on market, according to Yun.
Nonetheless, the number of homes sold was down 28.5 percent and new purchase contracts — an indicator of future sales — were down 38.7 percent
45 thoughts on “NAR chief economist predicts ‘strong rebound’ in 2024”
We need to get off our asses and start working. Stop listening to this demoralizing laodicean pastor garbage. Especially people like Chuck Lawson, who sounds so high and mighty with that booming voice and presence and tells you that the Old Testament was written for the Jews and that none of this applies to today’s Christian. What a bunch of bovine scatology hogwash.
These NT-only fire and brimstone douchebags have driven us into the ground. That’s why we’re in the end times. Satan deceived the whole world, especially the Christians. They were the sleeping dogs who let in the enemy. They’ve been lied to and they’re lying to us. They don’t even know it. Philosophically speaking there’s no difference between this last days Christianity, regardless of how pious you may believe you are, and Buddhism and Hinduism. All of these religions are going to sit around the round table and come to a consensus and most of the Christians today will go along with it, because they know nothing about the Old Testament.
Our existential enemy, the synagogue of Satan, has convinced us that we shouldn’t read the Old Testament anymore and that it doesn’t apply to us. By doing so, they walked right in the front door and you rolled out the red carpet for them. Indeed, we are in the end times, because our enemy now shit all over us and we take it like dogs.
In any new nation I want no NT-only Christians to enter. They will wander in the wilderness for 40 years and die out before God gives us a new nation
Today’s laodicean Christian got fat and sassy living off the residue of the people that made the West great. Now they virtue signal and disregard what the previous generations had to do and endure in order to make the West great in the first place. The Christians from hundreds of years ago incorporated the Old Testament into their everyday dealings and in resisting how the temporal adversary operated.
Because today’s NT-only Christian is flying blind and is relatively self-absorbed, he’s fallen under the judgment laid out in Leviticus 26 in Deuteronomy 28 and he doesn’t even know it.
He just runs around, demoralized and incapacitated, exclaiming the end is here. Well, that’s a no-brainer. Today’s dummy Christian let it happen. For the person who is to blame, most Christians need to look in the mirror. They’re too stupid to understand the Old Testament and how it’s still applies.
Bitcoin Price To See Relief? El Salvador’s Bukele Promises To Buy 1 BTC Every Day
Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, on Twitter announced buying one Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) each day starting Nov.18. This comes at a time when FTX (CRYPTO: FTT) collapsed fanning fears about the future of the cryptocurrency industry.
What Happened: Bukele is a staunch supporter of Bitcoin. The Central American nation of 6.5 million residents became the first country in the world to accept Bitcoin as a legal tender last year.
We are buying one #Bitcoin every day starting tomorrow.
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) November 17, 2022
Bukele has been repeatedly buying BTCs despite the bearish market. According to the Nayib Bukele Portfolio tracker, El Salvador currently owns 2,381 Bitcoins.
The last purchase was on Jul. 1 when Bukele added 80 BTC to the country’s portfolio.
El Salvador’s central bank has purchased nearly $394 million worth of Bitcoin. Bukele also proclaimed he would build a Bitcoin City, which would serve as an international hub for Bitcoin investors.
Wall Street and the business shows and channels have definitely embraced multiculturalism. While many will rejoice and say progress is being made, I draw the direct connection between the rise in ignorant people entering the financial and business field and the ease at which the powers fleece the general public and the speed at which global wealth is consolidated.
None of this is independent. If you are in the top few percent of wealth, you should hope that Wall Street becomes a multi-breed workplace. These new breeds are so easily duped by the Wall Street lies of the synagogue. In fact, these breeds are so much more easily duped and suggestible to lies, which is why we now hurtle towards the last day.
Housing starts and permits are slightly above estimates while the Philadelphia Fed cratered to -19, 10 points lower than consensus. Ouch!
Someone is currently engineering a brute force hack attempt. People do not like what people on the site are saying, I guess.
Multiculturalism is a social cancer for God loving Christians. It is not a problem when different races walk in the ways of Jesus Christ because in that case we are brothers and sisters in Christ. Multiculturalism becomes a huge problem when we let people who worship other Gods mingle in our society such as gays, lesbians, paganism, atheists, and in general people who do not follow the Bible. That is tolerating sin and opens a doorway for society to stray from God. The USA is a multicultural toilet bowl due to encouraging homosexuality, transgenderism, new age, etc. and worse, putting down Jesus Christ.
This is why the Old Testament scriptures forbid the Israelis to mingle with people who worship other Gods because that open the doorways for everyone to deviate from God and bring calamity on society.
However scripture does allow people of other races to marry and mix with the Israelis IF they worship the God of the Israelis. Multiculturalism disease is not about physical race but it is definitely about following God’s ways versus following other ways.
As you explain it God wants strong Israelites that thrive in his image. God never speaks of the races or languages. Faith in him is enough to receive his many gifts and those are hard shells to crack to the evils of this world.
However, it is enough if just one human gets soft and pliant like a blemished fruit to start the calamity. As he does believe not in God and does not have any knowledge of the Bible the man is now open attack, be corrupted, taken advantage of and used like a debt slave or worse by the evil and brutal kingdoms of this world.
Unfortunately we leave in times where too many of those poor souls are lost and evil is rampant and too broadly extended.
We are living in the end times.
The New Testament only Christians allowed it. It all started after the seminaries were infiltrated in the mid-1800s. They started preaching this NT-only, personal salvation hogwash to the Christian plebes. Notice the Gideon’s Bible is just NT and Psalms and Proverbs. The synagogue wants us to wipe away the remembrance of the OT as a textbook for living down here in Satan’s kingdom.
It became the end times, because the laodicean Christians disregarded the Old Testament and how foreigners took over their Kingdom and how those who hated them shat all over them and ruled until they were broken up. For some reason the Christians of today are too dainty to contemplate such tragedies.
You obviously are an NT-only Christian. The Old Testament teaches us all about how to remain intact as a nation. I think you should read it. The Old Testament doesn’t teach us many things about the temporal world except how to act toward others. The Old Testament was used frequently by the founding fathers before the synagogue of Satan took over. And the synagogue also took control of your church and your hermeneutics.
This is why we’re done and we’re in the end times. It blows me away how Christians are today. They gave up their birthright for PC soup.
I mean the New Testament, which teaches us about the spiritual house. Your personal house. The Old Testament teaches us about the God while we live in this world and how to deal with the adversary who overwhelms us with foreigners, just like in the ancient Kingdom. I’m blown away.
As a rotten apple infects another it is. If it is not checked and retired at the moment the whole bunch gets lost.
Here in WSE it has been like this as well with the infected doctrines of the Catholic Church.
I am old enough to being sent to the church when I was a kid and yes, you are completely right, it was here too all about the NT. Nothing else that the NT. You opened my eyes in this question as I really do not remember being told in church almost anything about the OT.
This is why I think almost everyone here left the church in this corner of the world. I mean people born in the 70s and after. All that stuff about giving the other check and spiritual salvation are good but as you grow older and realize how things are around you they just happen to not be very practical teachings to live in this world.
Otherwise, your advice and the OT are much more solid and I think many of us appreciate your efforts. I think what you are teaching is like a light in this great darkness and calamity is approaching.
Unfortunately, once you take away religion from people people became more easily manipulated and controlled and they will do as they been told even as this is completely wrong or evil, like the Covid scam or the vaccines.
Here, those just happened to have not almost any opposition and the official narrative worked like a charm. It was such the charm that any ordinary citizen if disagreed had to be very careful to not to attract to much attention to himself or give any public even private views about it.
So to speak from the so call PIGS countries it is the same on all of them
but it is the same in France, UK, Holland, Germany, Denmark an the Nordic Scandinavian countries too.
Is The Housing Market Crashing? What Home Depot Says Is Happening Across The US
“We’re navigating a unique environment,” Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on Tuesday’s call with investors. “We can’t predict how the macroeconomic backdrop will affect customers going forward.”
The Atlanta-based company’s customer transactions were down slightly, more than 4%, but its average transaction prices rose about 9% to $89.67 — this is an indication that the American home owner, while dealing with infaltion, is still remodeling and able to afford home improvement projects.
“Home Depot reported a — better-than-expected comp of 4.3%, reflecting inflation and solid home improvement demand, supported by elevated home prices, healthy remodeling activity, and solid household formation,” wrote Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman in a note to investors Tuesday.
Investors have been wary of the home improvement sector over the last few quarters, fearing that the slowdown in the housing market would spill over to home improvement. Home Depot’s earnings tell a slightly different story.
As I wrote some time ago, depending where one lives, the middle class lifestyle of 1971 is worth $1 million today. However, I expand that to now go up to $3 million. The rent from my newest property purchase will come close to paying for the latest mortgage I took out a couple months ago. Plus, I installed vinyl on three houses and did a couple rehabs with the loan proceeds.
I still drive my 2002 F150.
Single-Digit Millionaire Is The New Middle Class: Billionaire Grant Cardone Says ‘You Are Not Wealthy… You Are Worried’
So, how do you make money when we’re facing an everything recession? How much do you need when Cardone says $1 million simply isn’t enough?
One of Cardone’s answers is to invest in real estate. Cardone always pushes for you to go broke investing. Put all your chips in on something you believe in. For him, it’s almost always real estate. His belief has served him well. His net worth (depending on your source) has him somewhere between $600 million and $2.6 billion.
How can you invest like a billionaire, without the same fortune? There are several ways.
Crowdfunding platforms: Cardone Capital is Cardone’s own real estate crowdfunding company. These platforms allow you to invest what you can (sometimes with a minimum required balance) into one or several different properties. Fractional ownership allows you to diversify your portfolio and still reap the long-term benefits of real estate ownership. (Check out Benzinga’s Real Estate Offering Screener to check out passive real estate investment opportunities)
Real estate investment trusts (REITs): REITs are stocks that specialize in real estate. There are tons of niche markets to get into. Whether it’s farmland, residential or storage, you can invest in real estate you believe in. Benzinga has highlighted several of the Best REITs to invest in.
Outright ownership: If you have the means, certainly one of the best options is to mimic Cardone in the closest way possible. Outright ownership of rental properties and multiuse buildings can prove to be lucrative with the right investments.
Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government
With the Republicans taking the House, oil will struggle if this green agenda is put on the back burner. The synagogue tossed us a bone. Perhaps oil at 120 will be too rich.
It bottomed out in the mid-70s, reaching my initial target of 77, but never reaching 65. The futures speculators are wildly bullish, though with the house going back to Republican, perhaps the enthusiasm needs to be tempered.
Oil majors holding up well in this oil downtrend.
In the old days, a couple years ago, $50 to $60 oil was profitable for these enterprises. Unfortunately, their costs of capital have risen tremendously like everything else and they would normally need more expensive oil. But if inflation comes down and their costs of capital regain a decent footing, these firms can continue tearing it up. Any dividends these firms generate will look that much more attractive.
I think you are right.The Synagogue is tossing the conservatives a bone. They can’t be too obvious about election meddling otherwise people will start asking questions
and question the legitimacy of “democracy “. The loud and clear message from these election results is NO Trump patriots and NO 2020 election deniers allowed.
I am surprised they allowed the Republicans to take control of the house.
Hopefully this will block vaccine mandates and block gun control. This could also slow the timing to WWIII.
However these are still projections and not final results. The final results could still be different but usually projections are correct.
The articles on the front page of my news app continue to point to a housing collapse.
Why is the DoD controlled MSM making such a concerted effort to demonize housing? I bet you it is to keep people on the sidelines as prices continue defying predictions. For a decade, all I read on the MSM and alt-finance media were predictions of doom for SFRs. Hmm….
Cap rates and IRRs still not low, especially when compared to the last bubble. The last house I just purchased has a 6.5 cap.
Another propaganda piece for the markets. Central clearing becoming necessary in a dictatorship.
More trouble is brewing in the $24 trillion Treasury market: This time, it’s about central clearing
Vivien Lou Chen
Stefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse
Efforts to reduce risks within the nearly $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the world’s deepest and most liquid securities market, are ironically creating angst among market players. The anxiety is centered on the concept of central clearing, a method used to reduce and manage risks in financial markets. In September, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed rules that would mandate the central clearing of a large swath of Treasury transactions. Only a small percentage of such transactions have centrally cleared in recent years.The biggest concern about central clearing is the cost of participating in it, according to a panel discussion at the 2022 U.S. Treasury Market Conference held at the New York Fed on Wednesday. Though panel participants generally agreed that the efforts would help to improve the Treasury market’s resiliency, they said that some players might not be able to absorb the additional costs and that it’s not clear how well the central-clearing system would work during periods of turmoil. “The cost of transacting in the Treasury market is going to go up and, as dealers, we are concerned about that,” said Kavi Gupta, co-head of global rates trading and counterparty portfolio management for BofA Securities. Though larger players may adapt, smaller ones may not and the topic is “something our clients actively talk about.” Concerns about liquidity in the Treasury market have been brewing for months, particularly as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening process kicked into high gear. In October, BofA Securities warned that the “fragile” market was at risk of “large scale forced selling” or a surprise that might lead to a breakdown. And earlier this month, the Fed confirmed fears about low liquidity in what has historically been one of the financial system’s most stable corners.Liquidity refers to the ease with which securities can be bought and sold, and a lack of it means that Treasurys can’t be transacted smoothly without significantly impacting the underlying prices on government debt. Exacerbating liquidity woes is the departure of big, regular buyers and the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, which have generally encouraged investors to sell off bonds this year. If the cost of transacting Treasurys becomes prohibitive for smaller dealers, then the question becomes “are you indirectly reducing liquidity” for the market, said panel participant Lynn Paschen, a senior portfolio manager at Schwab Asset Management. “That would be my main concern.” In addition, some funds are required to invest in Treasurys and additional costs may need to be passed on to shareholders, she said.Gerald Pucci, Jr., managing director and global head of repo at BlackRock BLK, said he worries about rising costs for the firm’s pension- fund clients. “I would think any kind of central clearing, on the margin, is a positive,” but if undertaken too quickly “could be problematic.”Most Treasury yields slipped on Wednesday, despite strong October retail-sales data. The 10-year rate BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell to 3.7%, shrinking its spread to the 2-year rate to a level further below zero that implies the bond market is deeply worried about the economic outlook. Earlier on Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams told conference participants that the “time is now” to find ways to strengthen core parts of the financial system. Meanwhile, Nellie Liang, undersecretary for domestic finance at the Treasury Department, said that the UST market needs to be monitored for vulnerabilities, given the risks of a potential shock.
They need central clearing for UST market is to cover up lack of liquidity in this market due to underlying problems. Maybe investors are losing faith in the US Treasury. Obviously they want to control the treasury market like all other markets are controlled by a big hand to smooth over investor lack of faith. The idea of any of these security markets being a “free” market of many willing buyers and sellers is an illusion in the same way that elections reflect the free will of the voters also being an illusion.
There’s nothing worse than a Judaizer, and the church pastors are nothing but Judaizers. They preach a laodicean judizing doctrine and get the name Israel all wrong.
The past 100 posts are back up on the website.
Holy smokes! Retail sales up up and away! Import and export prices drop for fourth and third months in a row. No collapses here…. Q4 GDP estimates will be raised.
Retail Control (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.7% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.6%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 8.37% Prev: 8.59%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 1.3% Cons: 1.0% Prev: 0.0%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.9% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.6%
Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
Act: -0.3% Cons: -0.4%
Prev: -1.5% from -0.8% initial read
Last month’s revised almost down double
Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
Act: -0.2% Cons: -0.4%
Prev: -1.1% from -0.6%
TGTs loss is WMTs gain. TGT is too pricey for their items, and even their groceries. I rarely go to TGT. Another KSS with a grocery section.
I’m not so sure; as I sat in the parking lot the other day I noted how the young sheeple girls like to herd into places like SBUX and TGT just like cattle – … while they also seemingly waste massive amounts of government hand outs on overpriced items with glee. I thought it was quite interesting all these people are holding “dozens” of not even finished drinks only to toss them and rush back in for more.
SBUX is different here. It’s like MCD for the middle class.
I rarely have any reason to go to TGT. Their price points are definitely higher than WMTs and their grocery prices are higher. They are not cheap. In Front Royal, there is a WMT and TGT next to one another. WMT is packed and TGT is definitely not.
The same goes for HD and LOW. Both are packed, especially HD. LOW holding its own.
The best way to gauge a retail chain is to frequent it and observe what the other people are buying.
Prediction: with Democrats retaining control of house and Senate, oil will be back over $100 again. Watch and profit!
As it stands now the chance of Democrats retaining control of the house seems to be mathematically fading as the Republicans are projected to win 217 seats and there are other Republican leaning districts still open. The Republicans just need one more seat to get a majority but still the Democrats have a chance for getting control of the house for the following reasons:
1) What if some of the projections are wrong and the Democrats ultimately win some seats that are projected to be won by Republicans.
2) Most of the open seats are in liberal states with loose voting rules so even the Republican leaning districts could be suddenly and “miraculously” won by Democrats due to ballot dumps and ballot switching etc.
In addition, if the Republicans win a razor thin majority, I am sure Biden could get his agenda through as the Democrats peel off some Republicans RINOs to switch sides and vote for the liberal agenda. The Democratic party is a close knit cult while the Republicans do not have the same kind of loyalty to their party. If the Republicans get a razor thin majority, which seems likely, it will be an empty victory. My one big hope is that Biden’s gun control measures get blocked.
Remember the COVID vaccine ingredients were developed by the Department of Defense and farmed out to the pharmaceutical firms to commercialize and distribute to the masses as a “countermeasure”. This alone tells me that the DoD wants to kill you and me and view us as the enemy.
Once we realize that our governing authorities hate us and want us unable to fight back then we realize the whole covid scam was designed to ruin our health and our ways of life. Every aspect of our lives is tainted and full of lies. Whether it be the Christian church demoralizing us or whether it be Trump or Biden. The results are the same and give us a sense of hopelessness. It engenders a sense of hopelessness in our inabilities to change anything.
We have a lot of power left and I think that we have been given enough time to prepare for Revelation 12, which expresses the second Exodus. We can survive this and live to see the other side.
I’m planning on surviving all of this and it’s only because I know exactly what’s going on.
Ultimately you are correct. It does not matter which party is in control,Republican nor Democrat. They both ultimately answer to our adversary up top and NOT to our interests. If the Republicans control the house maybe or maybe not slow down the march to the NWO. Ultimately we will end up with the NWO. The Republicans in control of the house during the Obama years did NOT block many of his plans.
Republicans are only a fake counterbalance to the degenerate heathen. A true counterbalance would never let scumbags like Trump control any narrative. The Republicans are a Potemkin village; a shadow or representation of opposition to the government loving multicultural shit hole reprobates and the MSM supporting the Democrats.
It’s now effectively a one party system with a mirage of two parties.
and full blown war to follow?
Interesting timing given the rosy picture on inflation. Maybe we throw all that out the window? Who even knows who fires these missiles
BUY BUY BUY! BUY BUY BUY!
PPI looks great across the board!
PPI ex-food and energy is 0.0%.
Dow futures touched 34000 earlier this morning. Wow!
The numbers haven’t been bad. Retail numbers will put the cherry on top. Where is that recession at?
The FOMC rate hikes seem to be causing the gloom. Small missle bomb in a cornfield in Poland, two people die, oh my says the headlines. If it was 50 bombs with soldiers and tanks crossing the border, then we have a catalyst solid enough to dip the market. At this point I’m wondering if there is an actual Russian military or if it’s all props and actors wearing camo.
The fake news is actually creating market sentiment.
Here’s a poll on infowars.com, regarding who would you vote for in 2024 for president. Alex Jones has done a tremendous job in destroying the patriot movement and ruining any chance of serious opposition to the Democrats.
He is being instructed to push Trump to the exclusion of all else. And this is why Biden will win again in 2024 if he’s still alive. If he dies then Harris will win.
Q: Who Would You Rather Vote For President In 2024?
Donald Trump – 43%
Ron DeSantis – 35%
Rand Paul – 13%
Someone else – 10%
I find it interesting how politicized the Patriot movement became after Judas goat Trump appeared on the scene. Shit doesn’t flow uphill, but it trickles down on its readers.
Trump is being purposely positioned to ease the transition into a dictatorship, an abhorrent and reprobate dictatorship where vaccines will be forced upon you.
The time is now! Start transferring real estate holdings out of multicultural areas. I have a bunch of condos in Prince George’s County Maryland and I will begin transferring them out when the leases are up via like exchanges into rural areas.
Yes, I am aware the world is collapsing, but if the prophecies as I outline are to come true, collapse of our ways of life is the prerequisite and eventual destruction will come. Maybe the powers know wormwood is coming.
For now, transfer properties out of multicultural areas. What else can we do? What good does it do to stare at the news feed on collapse.news? I am moving my operations out of the DC area, and into a more homogeneous area.
USA is the largest energy producer by far. Largest oil producer, largest gas producer, largest green energy producer…
“But commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have begged to disagree, arguing that U.S. crude supply and shale oil supply have both yet to peak.
According to StanChart, total U.S. oil liquids supply surpassed the pre-pandemic high in July, with higher output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other liquids offsetting lower crude oil output. The analysts have further projected that U.S. crude output will exceed 13 mb/d by June 2024.
StanChart has not provided any insights into how they arrived at this decidedly bullish projection for the U.S. crude production.”
Source: Standard Chartered
Has U.S. Oil Supply Peaked Again? Energy Experts Disagree
By Alex Kimani – Nov 14, 2022, 8:00 PM CST
•The EIA revised 2022 U.S. crude oil supply higher by 80 thousand barrels per day to 11.828 million bpd last week.
•Rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment as some of the problems that have hamstrung efforts by U.S. shale producers to quickly ramp up production.
•But commodity analysts at Standard Chartered argue that U.S. crude supply and shale oil supply have both yet to peak.
A week ago, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) wherein it revised its 2022 and 2023 oil production outlook. The EIA revised 2022 U.S. crude oil supply higher by 80 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to 11.828 million barrels per day (mb/d) and crude oil supply growth for 2022 higher by 80kb/d to 574kb/d. The energy watchdog, however, revised its 2023 production outlook lower by 21kb/d to 12.31mb/d and 2023 growth lower by 121kb/d to 487kb/d. This in effect means that next year’s output will fail to surpass the record 12.315 million barrels set in 2019. EIA also predicted that Brent prices will average $95.33 per barrel, down from the current year’s average of $102.13. The new projections have elicited mixed reactions across the board, with Bloomberg saying, “The projection suggests the pace of US shale growth, one of the few sources of major new supply in recent year, is slowing despite oil prices hovering at around $90 a barrel, about double most domestic producers’ breakeven costs. If the trend continues, it would deprive the global market of additional barrels to help make up for OPEC+ production cuts and disruption to Russian supplies amid its invasion of Ukraine.”
Bloomberg has cited recent comments by ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) CEO Ryan Lance that rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment as some of the problems that have hamstrung efforts by U.S. shale producers to quickly ramp up production. However, Bloomberg notes that the biggest factor behind the slowdown is a change of the playbook by the majority of U.S. shale companies from focussing on growth and expansion to more capital discipline and returning more cash to shareholders.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed jack is king.
Japheth is aligning, Israel is aligning. The land of unwalled villages (USA, Inc.) benefits a lot from the turmoil.
The Great Russian Oil Switch Is Gathering Momentum
ing more acute as a ban looms on seaborne imports into Europe, which was previously Moscow’s core export market.
Two-thirds of crude loaded onto tankers at Russian ports is now heading to Asia. That compares with less than two-fifths in the weeks before Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine in February. China and India form the backbone of the trade, with minor volumes heading to places like Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates.European Union sanctions, which will halt almost all seaborne crude deliveries from Russia to the bloc’s members, will come into force in just three weeks’ time. The measures will also bar European tankers from hauling Russian crude and prohibit the provision of insurance, brokerage, finance, vessel classification and other services. There will be exemptions for vessels carrying cargoes that were purchased at a price below a yet-to-be-agreed cap.
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