Economic insight: Trade data now confirming the American onshoring trend

Trade in goods has recently turned in the favor of the United States. The urgency to onshore over the past 12-18 months is finally showing up in the hard data.

Export growth in the US continues to move higher than estimates. This morning, exports data were $5 bil more than estimates. Imports were slightly lower than estimates by $1 bil. Exports were $260.8 vs. $255.9 estimates, which was the same as last month’s actual number.

Six months ago, exports only totaled $228 billion. These are big gains.

Considering the global economy is slowing, and American exports are rising, this reaffirms our theory of onshoring.

Trends don’t change immediately, but the overall trade deficit has begun to shrink since the beginning of the year

The overall trade deficit was $79.6 bil for June and is showing signs of dropping.

This also shows us why the USD has been so strong.

The upward trend in the USD is obvious. Higher energy and resource prices, global military tensions, and onshoring are all helping to support the dollar.

It all fits together like pieces in a Tetris game. The free market is determining the USD price in global markets. It’s not manipulation.

 

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25 thoughts on “Economic insight: Trade data now confirming the American onshoring trend

  1. Not in Labor Force -BLS household survey

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS15000000

    In July, 100,051-99,812 = 239k workers left the work force while jobs climbed 179k.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

    And we wonder why wages are climbing….

    We know why the numbers of those leaving the workforce are climbing, though the overall population is climbing or remaining constant. The reasons included: ill or disabled, retired, taking care of home or family, going to school, could not find work and other.

    These are those who have been disabled from the jabs. These multiple sigma events cannot be explained from chance.

  2. Beef prices are poised for a surge that could last years, experts say

    https://nypost.com/2022/08/04/beef-prices-poised-for-surge-that-could-last-years-experts/

    Beef prices are poised to surge as a severe drought across the western US forces mass cattle slaughters — and meat distributors say the natural disaster could keep supplies tight for years.

    From supermarkets to swanky steakhouses, purveyors warn that consumers could be faced with painful price increases — especially on prime meat — as soon as this month.

    1. Soylent green is on the way. In fact some mainstream media outlets such as New York times are suggesting cannibalism as an option. See link below:

      https://henrymakow.com/2022/07/july-25–dont-eat-grashoppers-.html?_ga=2.242504068.761975130.1659748439-2097253441.1659748439

      There are many movies and entertainment outlets bringing up the idea of cannibalism.
      Clearly we are living in a Satanic world. The only way through this insanity is accepting Jesus Christ as your savior. Your walk with Jesus Christ and reading the Holy Bible are the only ways to keep strong in this world.

      1. Well the New York city slickers can eat each other but as long as there are ponds, rivers to fish, deer, other animals to hunt and the gardens still grow the country folks can survive! There are no shortages of pigs in places like Iowa which probably have more pigs than the state has people.

        1. If cannibalism happens, it will be in the cities. If anyone cares about there safety they should move out of the cities. It is much easier to survive in the countryside.

          1. I agree and that’s why I made my move to the country. I also learned from my parents how they survived the Second World War during Nazi occupation with big families. They lived in the country and they always had food, maybe not much in terms of red meat, but lots to eat. They told me they would get starving people from Amsterdam knocking on the door looking for food. They walked barefoot. So they were given food and also shoes. Those same people would come back again, barefoot. They had sold those shoes in the city for food, ran out of food and came back.

            1. During the depths of the Great Depression there were many rural people that incurred no changes in their daily lifestyle. They were self-sufficient, content, and well-fed. What depression? It was just another day to them.

  3. The rationalization of the Democrats with their clean energy deficit spending reminds me of the Republicans with their supply side economic tax cuts. Either way, the deficit balloons. I don’t care if the Democrats take all of their social largesse spending and convert it to $100 bills and stick it in the furnaces to heat the houses of the poor people during the winter. For the asset owners, all that matters is that the money is spent. However, the more of that deficit spending that gets injected directly into the economy, the better that the asset owners like me and others do. I talked to my liberal friends about these things and they think I’m from another planet.

    That’s why this stuff continues to grow and get crazier every year. Don’t say anything, you’re just a crazy kook racist.

  4. The world is buying up Russia oil.
    ——-

    Russia Displaces Saudi Arabian Oil In India
    By Charles Kennedy – Aug 05, 2022

    •Russia’s market share in India is growing at the expense of Saudi Arabia.
    •Russian crude sells at a major discount to Saudi crude grades.
    •Bloomberg: Russian oil sold for $19 less per barrel than Saudi crude in May, which narrowed in June to $13 per barrel.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Displaces-Saudi-Arabian-Oil-In-India.html

  5. Discrepancies between payrolls and household survey persist.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05/

    Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were mixed. While the unemployment rate fell to its pre-pandemic low of 3.5% from 3.6% in June, that was because 63,000 people left the labor force.

    The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, edged down to 62.1% from 62.2% in June. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 after plunging to more than a 20-year low in June.

    But household employment rebounded by 179,000 jobs after falling 315,000 in June, and the number of the people experiencing long spells of unemployment dropped sharply.

  6. Small business confidence drops to an all-time low, according to the new CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. 

    51% of small business owners describe the current state of the economy as “poor” and 43% of small businesses say inflation is the biggest risk to their business.

    https://t.co/FhrmXUqV9N

    1. Small businesses depend on the well being of the average Joe. It is obvious that the average person is falling behind just like your analysis points out. This is why small businesses are struggling and folding up. I see a lot of empty retail spaces in my area. It is part of the plan to bankrupt small businesses so we are left with the big businesses like Amazon, Apple, and also the large restaurant franchises such as McDonalds and Wendy’s. Big business then has a monopoly and they are much easier to control from up top as opposed to many small businesses. I see a controlled monopoly communist economy in the future.

  7. Absolutely stellar employment data. Of course, this will affect the Fed’s timetable, but based on stocks this morning, I think it shows that we are in a bullish uptrend here. If this were a month ago, stocks would have tanked. But based on the performance so far this morning, I don’t think things are so bad.

    The big fly in the ointment pertains to the yield curve.

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS

    Spread between the two’s and 10s has widened to another 52 week low

    1. Also looking at the employment data, manufacturing jobs increased by 30,000 last month and were estimated to only increase by 17,000.

      I’m really encouraged by the manufacturing data coming across on a daily basis.

  8. Chris
    Your honest analysis points out why we need to keep our investments in income producing assets such as US stocks and US rental properties. Zero hedge is set up to keep people poor by scaring them out of assets and keeping all their wealth in the mattress. I feel you always got to have your financial oars in the water and keep rowing. I did not flinch during March 2020 the the Dow and oil sunk. I did not flinch back in January of 2022. Because of that I am so much better off today. Do not believe the gloom and doomers on Zero Hedge.

    When in doubt about your well being then take it to the Lord in prayer. God is the best being to look after your best interest.

  9. I marvel at how anyone can think a $750 bil spending bill in any way can bring down inflationary pressures. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Ha…

    I have the best course of action to reduce inflation; take the $750 billion in estimated spending and devote it to UST principal paydown.

    Do the democrat voters actually believe their arguments in which the outcome was already determined?

    If the democrats want to spend $750 bil, that’s fine. Just don’t insult the livestock and call it a way to reduce inflation.

  10. I warned the reader a couple weeks ago not to get caught with his pants down. We predicted oil prices would fall and the S&P would move up to at least 4200 to 4300.

    If oil drops to as low as I think it could, which is $65, we could see the S&P at 4600.

    Stop reading the gloom and doom and sarcasm of Zerohedge. Don’t get caught with your pants down

    1. BTW, if it weren’t for Zerohedge’s sarcasm and predictions of $200 a barrel of oil by now, West Texas intermediate crude would already be down in the upper 60s.

      When a propaganda outfit has 1.4 million followers on Twitter, it’s safe to say they’re disingenuous propagandizing has an effect. This is why oil levitated in the 90s for so long.

      Regardless, the market fundamentals will always eventually prevail.

    2. Maybe you mentioned it before but is there less demand for oil is that why the price is coming down? thanks

      1. I remember the West Texas intermediate spot price during covid was actually negative and ruined many trading accounts. The war and supply chain premiums were already priced in and were at historic extremes going back the past few months.

        I recall the sarcasm of Zerohedge when covid caused oil to drop below zero as there wasn’t enough storage capacity around the world. I marveled at Zerohedge after the Russia invasion of Ukraine and it claimed that oil was going as high as $250 a barrel.

        I suspect that there has been more than a million additional barrels a day produced in the United States in the past 12 months. I just read somewhere that the US is now up to about a 12 million barrel a day run rate. That’s 1..5 million barrels more than at the low during the depths of covid.

        The cure for high price is high prices. When the producers can make that much money pumping oil out of the ground, regardless of what is said in either the industry or in politics, supply will always increase to meet the demand until marginal revenue or price received for a fungible commodity converge with marginal costs. This is just microeconomics 101.

          1. I have been following this and have tried to estimate how much of an effect it has on prices. I would have to say that domestic gas prices are lower because of it; that would make sense.

            Now that domestic production has been increasing the pressure to release more SPR is fading somewhat. Gas prices in some stations in the DC area have fallen back into the upper 3s. Clearly the SPR release has helped some.

            The release has been lower than originally estimated and the theory is that domestic production will eventually rise to higher levels at which time the Fed’s will replenish the withdrawn supply.

            As domestic production picks up, the urgency has faded. How I know is by looking at the price chart of WTI and domestic pricing. This is all priced in and as the marketplace comes to terms with the new paradigm, things will settle back. At which time, the Feds will buy back the oil from domestic sources.

            Biden initially handled the situation in the worst way with his obstinacy towards the oil and gas industry, but lately has yielded and this is evident in this latest spending bill. He hasn’t shut out the oil and gas sector completely.

            If the shtf it would be evident in the pricing of oil in the marketplace. Evidently, the consensus right now agrees with this logic and that’s why oil prices are under pressure. But then again, I look at Hg and lumber as well as the grains and most commodities are falling. Nat gas is the exception here as its dynamics are unique to it’s market. It’s very difficult to ship LNG in size and distribution to where it’s needed is a sizeable task.

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