Yields and inflation; Fed intervention and a market in denial

A couple charts that show the disconnect in the UST arena

The 5-Year, 5-Year forward inflation expectation rate is a measure of expected inflation (on average) over the five-year period that begins five years from today.

The UST market is indicating a drop in longer-term inflation expectations. Look at the five-year forward rate. I doubt that will ever fall back like it indicates, especially when the CCP gets going in its preparation for war.

Spot the outlier….

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29 thoughts on “Yields and inflation; Fed intervention and a market in denial

  1. Is LATVIA in Putin’s crosshairs? Kremlin rants against ‘neo-Nazis’ in the Baltic state in chilling echo of Moscow’s threats to Ukraine

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10703253/Kremlin-rants-against-Baltic-neo-Nazi-state-chilling-echo-Moscows-threats-Ukraine.html

    Russia’s march to consolidate resources and develop a buffer zone in its build up to WW3 moves forward…

    This was an excerpt from today’s WAB:
    ———————-

    Is Latvia Next on Putin’s Invasion List?

    Not unless he wants a war with NATO, but there are signs that the Russian minority, which Russia moved into Latvia to aggravate conflict, are being provoked, as the Daily Mail reports, as well as the “Kremlin’s rants against ‘neo-Nazis’ in the Baltic state in a chilling echo of Moscow’s threats to Ukraine.”

    Putin’s regime branded Latvia a ‘neo-Nazi’ state in a chilling echo of Moscow’s threats to Ukraine after the Baltic state made May 9 a day of remembrance for victims of Russian aggression… Latvian MPs passed the legislation to draw attention to ‘ Russia’s military aggression’. Latvian national flags will be raised alongside Ukrainian flags at every residence and government building.

    According to Kremlin-backed media, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the decision ‘an attempt to humiliate the Russian-speaking community living in Latvia’…the ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany ‘s henchmen.

    ‘Just as Riga in every possible way covers the crimes of the Kiev regime against civilians in Ukraine and Donbas. We are convinced that that history will put everything in its place.’

    That last statement is a veiled threat that Russia intends to take back these Baltic states as well. They do represent NATO right on the Russian border, which Ukraine did not.

  2. Not that I want to give him any exposure on the website, but the following is a quote from Tucker Carlson that explains how the Chinese government treats people.

    ——–

    Obviously, it’s not about Covid. Let’s stop pretending. Shanghai doesn’t have a Covid crisis. And if Shanghai did have a Covid crisis, from recent experience this is not the way to handle a Covid crisis.

    So from the perspective of China’s central government, the problem is not Covid, the problem is Shanghai itself. Shanghai is probably the freest place in China, it certainly has the most foreign nationals than any city in China. There is a lot of trade at its historic port. By China’s standards, Shanghai is an independent-minded city.

    That’s the problem. For authoritarians, independent-mindedness is the main threat. If you’re the head of the communist party of China and you’re trying to run a highly volatile country of 1.4 billion people from Beijing, naturally, your top concern always will be Shanghai. Shanghai is one place where a meaningful insurrection might start, and that’s especially true this year.

    Xi Jinping, the Chinese autocrat, is set to take a third consecutive term beginning in the fall. That was not supposed to happen. There were term limits in China. But four years ago, the Chinese communist party did away with those and now Xi Jinping can rule the country forever.

    ———-

    Xi will be the head of the CCP during World War 3 and will end up serving as long as Putin, unless of course he dies first.

    The CCP can lock down 25 million people and let them starve, because the Chinese don’t think much of human life. This is a template for the West in a post force majeure environment.

    Welcome to the New World Order

  3. Community Land trusts are there to help the downtrodden🤣🤣🤣

    “In Boston, housing that’s affordable – because the community owns the land”

    https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2022/04/14/housing-thats-affordable-because-community-owns-land/7305568001/

    I love the way the propaganda is spun in the newspaper articles as a new way to help fight spiraling real estate prices and rents. This is the Joe and Jane six-pack propaganda from that article from the Real Deal Los Angeles regarding private non-profit corporations that are just fronts for the government and tax jurisdictions. These shill trusts or corporations, depending on the state, buy up properties and turn them into public housing.

    Public housing for everybody! Doubleplusgood I tell you.

  4. I listened to a Jeff Rense / Ted Broer interview last night.

    Rense really respects Putin for being a man of his word and blames the United States for the military escalation in Ukraine. Of course, Russia is invading the Ukraine, but that doesn’t matter.

    Broer on the other hand likes Putin, thinks he’s a good guy, and is pleased to see that he’s promoting the Russian Orthodox Church. However, Broer doesn’t understand why Putin doesn’t get rid of the Rothschild controlled Russian Central Bank.

    I will tell you why Putin doesn’t get rid of the Rothschild-controlled Russian Central Bank. Putin is as evil as they come and he is in no way an ally of the remnant. He’s the modern day version of Shalmaneser.

    1. I think it was mentioned on a previous article a month ago that the entire Ukraine event is a cooped staged event run by each Countries military intelligence units, mainstream news corporations and help from Hollywood. All of the videos and photos I have seen look fake. If this were a real conflict it would have been over by now. The cities that are shown with buildings in ruins were from a previous isolated war game back in 2014. Too many mixed stories about Ukraine businesses still open and the country legalizing Crypto.. then stories about decimating Ukraines armed forces, then seeing videos from people there on the ground with nothing happening on the streets except people walking their dogs and drinking coffees. During a War? I dont think so.

      They do not have to initiate a real war, it is all on the internet and television. Oddly we have seen since around Feb24th, the effects on the markets have reacted as if the event were real. Nothing is happening naturally so they have to force it to happen. It’s part of this Great Reset story line. Covid–> Ukraine–>Next chapter event–>Conclusion. These Countries all have the same Central banks, it’s all controlled by the same entities. I’m just wondering what is the next event, and they already know what it is. With this elusive Ukraine war hoax they can use it as a pretext to unleash all sorts of agendas.

      1. The photos of the Moskva burning are clearly phony. Even the flag wavers agree. I assume the rest of the war photos are phony also.

      2. I saw a lady on the news being interviewed in Ukraine about how scared she was. Full make-up on, standing around outside. Ok. This is what we do when we’re scared?

  5. A solid 85% of my website hack attempts come from servers located in the Japheth regions and China. Very few originate from Western servers or elsewhere. Hmm…..

  6. The force majeure that will topple the USD system I described a decade ago seems to be coming. it is planned at the top and being carried out with the OT prophets in mind. The synagogue of Satan is leaving no stone unturned.

    Whether the s of s is carrying out the timeline and upcoming force majeure war using the Bible as the installation guide, or because it is fixed and non negotiable is up for contemplation.

    Does it really matter?

  7. Regarding The Clot Suicide Shots.
    My husbands place of work has The Rutland Herald AKA The Russian Herald.
    He goes straight to the Obituaries. He has noticed in the last year many more people are dying and in many cases the deaths are sudden. The area we live in is small enough where at my husbands work there is usually someone who was either familiar with the deceased or knew someone who was.

    1. I liked going to Rutland when I was a child. Vermont was a great place in the 70-80s. Still beautiful. The best Summers.

      I scan the entertainment section of my news app and there are many younger entertainers who just seen to be dying suddenly. I guess they got their jabs.

      As long as some of the people don’t exert themselves, the clots don’t kill right away. Instead, they will die from their depleted immune systems.

  8. MSM is a miracle for me; 9-10 grams a day with vitamin c powder. Anyone over 45 regardless of daily exercise routine and younger for those who exercise must take this.

    My blood pressure dropped 8-10 points and eyesight even better. MSM is works like nothing else. It’s a vasodilator and helps cells get rid of toxins. Yay!

    Thank God for the cure to my pain. No drugs for me.

      1. MSM also helps to repel ticks and mosquitoes. Old school remedy to take sulfur. I just learned that recently. Glad it’s helping you Chris.

        1. Thanks. It really is a simple remedy and it’s so inexpensive, too. I endured this pain for years and didn’t need to. My body needed the sulfur for repair and I wasn’t getting enough in my diet. I wonder how many people could kick pain killers for good with 10 grams a day of MSM?

          I read the Google search for MSM and it creates a doubt for those who research it on the web. Most don’t try it, and if they do it’s no more than 500-1,000 mg a day. That’s not nearly enough.

    1. I have to also mention that I take 6-7 grams of glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate a day. Lots of organic sulfur. It’s the sulfur that has been the game changer.

      There are some excellent YouTube videos with back specialists who show how to stretch and maintain the spine. I no longer need surgery! Thank God!

      I can continue my weights and calisthenics training. Still able to do 25 pullups in one set.

    2. Thanks for the advice. Another huge prophylactic is this: get off sugar. Especially refined sugar—“white death.” I feel so much stronger and cleaner when I stay away from it.

  9. Is it just me or are there a lot more people who are dying young from heart problems and strokes?

    An onsite property manager at one of the condo developments where I have a property told me that his mom, who was 63, had a serious stroke last December. This guy was so scared of covid and refused to enter units. He was telling me that after he received his third shot he was feeling more confident to return to the routine. Same with his mother. Well, I guess the mom is now debilitated from a stroke, but it wasn’t the jabs.

    1. It’s not just you, I am noticing too. Locally there have been a 58 yr old man and two 61 yr old men in Feb/March. Died suddenly and request donations to heart and stroke foundation. This in a town of <2000. My wifes 57 yr old cousin dropped dead of a heart attack putting the snowblower away – he was triple jabbed but otherwise in good shape.

  10. Americans have it great. Americans complain and still are doing well when compared to everyone else. 12-mos Turkey inflation is 61%. Fed engineered from stem to stern. Dems want to forgive another trillion plus in debt. Massive demand pull inflation. Just another reason why turkey will side with Russia and the Japheths. Supply shocks and demand pull crushing the world!

    Read this article:

    Turks “bewildered” as rents outpace rampant inflation

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turks-bewildered-rents-outpace-rampant-inflation-2022-04-14/

    •Turkish Government says housing costs up 20% in past year
    •As crisis beckons, industry data shows rents have doubled
    •Tenants in Istanbul say actual rise higher still
    •Consumer inflation at 61%, lira down against dollar
    Demand for housing outstrips supply, experts say

  11. I agree with Blackrock research. Get ready for inflation forever!! The Dems want debt forgiveness at the “wrong” time. The asset owners win!!!!

    BlackRock Says Traders Are Wrong on Fed’s Rate Path – Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/blackrock-strategists-say-traders-are-wrong-on-fed-s-rate-path

    An overly aggressive path of hikes to combat the spiraling cost of living may backfire, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute, which estimates that bringing inflation down last year to the Fed’s target of 2% could have pushed unemployment to nearly 10%, based on the historical relationship between inflation and employment.

    That’s unlikely to be a scenario that the Fed wants, and means it will eventually “choose to live with inflation,” said Alex Brazier, the deputy head of the institute, noting that inflation is currently being driven more by supply constraints than demand.

  12. USDX over 100. The dollar dies not from weakness. The dollar dies from strength.😲

    I notice how many alt-pastors talk about CERN, UFOs, psychology, and fallen angels. They mix the KJV with the occult and call it biblical.

    The new age pastors don’t even know it. They have introduced Hindu, new age, and Eastern philosophies. They don’t even know it, but will call you a racist at the drop of a hat… Dumb wolves pastoring to the dumb sheep. No more intellectual capacity in the Laodicean churches

  13. Import export price indexes through the roof this morning. All the numbers across the board were mind blowing.

    Income generating assets have saved us from obliteration. Residential real estate still the best for the average Joe. Rents and a lack of supply a life saver.

    The USG with Biden have overwhelmed the the borders and the amount of illegals are overwhelming everything. I know first hand as a landlord and property manager.

    Jurisdictions will try to put in rent restrictions but the landlords will withhold properties when it serves their objectives. I will.

  14. Someone asked me a couple weeks ago, and I thought the notion seemed remote. Maybe I was too hasty.

    Biden seems ‘more open’ to canceling student debt broadly ‘than ever before,’ Chuck Schumer says

    https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-more-open-to-canceling-student-loan-debt-chuck-schumer-2022-4

    Why bother paying the loans anymore? Perhaps that’s the intent.

    If student loans are forgiven, this would be an incredible boon to those who run businesses that sell to young broke college grads.

    Jeff Bezo’s Washington Post and Business Insider are all for it. So am I as a landlord.

    It would also help accelerate the death of the USD system and create tons of demand-pull inflation.

    At some point I have to conclude this is all being coordinated deliberately at the same time. Imagine another 1 trillion+ being forgiven? Just more going on to the Fed balance sheet.

    Demand pull inflation will come at the worst time and for every dollar forgiven will cost more than a dollar in negative externalities. Only those with the income generating assets win.

    Of course, those whose debt is forgiven benefits, but not by the amount of the forgiveness as the economic aggregate supply and demand dynamic is adversely impacted. Those who has no debt forgiveness must now compete with those whose debt was forgiven, And the costs of life will be more punishing for all, but much worse for those who do not receive the subsidies of debt forgiveness.

    The people pushing this want to accelerate this demise.

    1. Another reason student loan debt forgiveness is likely is that it will benefit mostly leftists. Leftists are the only group who believes in the innate goodness of the SoS government. Leftists have to keep “winning” for them to stay loyal to the government. Leftists won with the Covid WFH shift, which disproportionately benefited college-educated workers (whose jobs are useless at best, and parasitic at worst). Leftists won with the Covid vaccine and mask mandates. Leftists win on almost all culture war issues (LGBTQ, BLM, mass immigration, feminism, etc.).

      So student loan debt forgiveness would be another “win” for leftists and would make them even more loyal to the government. Conversely, conservatives would hate the government even more since fewer of them took on profligate debt and more of them had to work in person throughout Covid because they do real jobs.

      1. Excellent observations

        Imagine a wholesale debt forgiveness program just before the elections. The Dems with vote fraud will sustain their majorities.

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