A response to a reader; Housing bears will be disappointed even after the Fed hikes rates

House prices go up even when rates rise
I have repeatedly warned housing bears that prices climbed during the Volcker rate hiking campaign of the late 1970s – early 80s. Stop thinking of a housing collapse as the Fed begins hiking rates again. Rent increases and wage growth will overwhelm price equilibrium.

“A shockingly large price bubble appears to have formed in the real estate market.”

https://thefederalist.com/2022/02/16/key-indicator-hints-america-is-headed-for-its-worst-real-estate-crash-in-history/

did you see this Chris? what do you make of it?

M

Overpriced housing? With trailing 12 mos. 18% nationwide rent rate growth, recent price gains are justified. Single-family dwellings performed even better, with many houses experiencing as much as eight years worth of rent growth in just the past 18 months. Sorry, you no buy? You now cry.

Here is my response:

I don’t pay attention to this type of fluff. The person writing it doesn’t really understand the residential real estate markets the way our readers do. Nowhere in his story does he mention rents and the rent roll. The author is also too young to make connections regarding how the housing market fared during the wild days of the late 70’s – early 80s, and seems to be only a partisan hack who tows the line, while selling his shill book.

I ran a couple of posts in the past couple weeks, which shows that real estate in the United States is a relative bargain.

https://knowyouradversary.com/2022/02/03/the-only-reason-why-us-residential-real-estate-is-not-in-a-bubble/

https://knowyouradversary.com/2022/02/05/updated-global-housing-data-in-detail-us-residential-real-estate-is-still-a-relative-bargain/

I used two measures in my analysis, the capitalization rate and the price to income multiple, to demonstrate that housing in the United States is not all that expensive.

Specifically, I demonstrated to the reader regarding one house that went up in price about 42% in 4 years, yet the capitalization rate rose slightly. That’s because the rent had gone up about 39%, while my rising costs were not enough to keep the capitalization rate from falling.

Hello, 2030

The institutional money is still buying every house it can get its hands on at a reasonable price, and that includes pricing out many potential home buyers. This institutional money sees exactly what I am seeing and I tip my hat to them, although they’re quickly turning the nation into a renter’s debt slave prison.

Until recently, I begged all who would listen to buy every stick of real estate they could over the past six or seven years. I recall the criticism I received from my teachings on my shortwave show in 2015-2018. I guess the listeners didn’t like my voice or the cheap feel of my recording style. Those watching my videos didn’t like the cut of my jib… or skin color.

Unfortunately, those who were fired or let go from their jobs, because they didn’t take the jabs are no longer really able to participate, and I no longer recommend this sector to those who are bright enough to understand the conspiracy against humanity. Those who refuse the mandates will not be able to afford investing in rental housing anymore.

It’s so sad, because this was the only bonafide opportunity for the independent-minded remnant member to get ahead and run a legitimate business, but nobody listens. They chose to binge read the Zero Hedge collapse propaganda and watch Tom Horn’s Apophis 2029 YouTube videos. These sad sacks were also buying Horn’s Apollyon Rising 2012, and then his update for 2016.

I am tired of being lumped in with all these jerks who write economics articles, yet know nothing and have terrible track records.

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54 thoughts on “A response to a reader; Housing bears will be disappointed even after the Fed hikes rates

  1. So sad.

    As Virtual Real Estate Gets Pricey Terrazero Technologies Provides Metaverse Mortgages

    https://news.bitcoin.com/as-virtual-real-estate-gets-pricey-terrazero-technologies-provides-metaverse-mortgages/

    As people get priced out of actually living a real life, they can now live a virtual reality life. Many younger folks already live a virtual reality. They play DraftKings and fantasy leagues, they surf porn and the web, eat crappy processed foods, smoke reefer, and now purchase virtual real estate; all within the confines of their parents’ basement.

    Hey, if you’re young, don’t get offended with what I’m saying. Accept it and make sure you don’t end up like they do.

    1. Virtual reality is about as satanic as it gets. Replacing the real world with a false one to create the illusion of happiness and success. This is not art, it’s corporate technology crafted to diminish human anxiety, existential angst, and inability to cope. Submergence into a fake milieu to feel good. End result is more complacent sheep and more government/corporate power structure control. The indoctrination is really being amped-up. Anyone notice the abundance of Superbowl ads pushing virtual reality technologies?

      What happened to coping? Most people can’t cope anymore. That’s one gauge I can clearly measure in my life: the decline of coping. Of course humans have always had difficulty coping, turning to drugs, alcohol, (insert vice here…nothing new there; seems most everyone is smoking weed to get through the day), however it’s MORE widespread among the general population at all age levels. Much more than 40-50 years ago.

      Humans seem so frail today. Normal life stressors cause some sort of emotional blow-out akin to a child having a temper tantrum or a caveman crushing an animal skull. It doesn’t take much to cause a mental breakdown. Of course, post-breakdown, here comes the parade of professionals required to intervene on behalf of the confused beasts (psychologists, social workers, doctors, police, etc.). Of course, none of the professionals have the real answer, at best they can temporaily contain and soothe the beasts. A popular professional solution is to prescribe various psychiatric drugs (after court petition and certification for involuntary mental health treatment) from an apathetic psychiatrist that can barely contain their patient caseload. Then the beast gets 5-10 days “treatment” in an acute inpatient setting and once the crisis has been stabilized (via more drugs, restraints, seclusion, threats of extended involuntary treatment…), a calmer beast is released back to the general public, back to their apathetic life where they eventually relapse. The only possible cure is to make professional treatment so horrible that the beasts modify behavior just to avoid going back to that Hell. Professionals call that insight! However, this is the point where things get interesting. Enter virtual reality! The kinder, gentler mental hospital. Welcome all!

      1. Once you enter the mental health system, it’s way harder to get a gun.
        It’s like that in NZ at least.
        “There is no stigma”, except there is.

        1. Agreed. Don’t go to the shrink. Psychologists practice a false religion, and once one enters that, there is rarely ever any turning back. Psychiatrists are even worse. Don’t take their filthy pharmaceuticals.

          1. Yes you are right. I did go to a psychiatrist once and I told him I never felt that “click” with anyone. How my life really wasn’t going how I wanted it to go. Lack of quality relationships and so on.

            Then he told me he thinks I may have autism!

            And that he couldn’t “level” with me. I straight up told the guy that’s because you ain’t on my level so stop trying. And I left.

            I really think “autism” is a very very rare brain deviation (resulting in essentially blindness to social cues, which I do not suffer from) that has been co-opted to describe anyone that suffers from the abhorrence of this system. ADHD is the light-version, for people who simply can’t bring themselves to stick their noses in shit 9 hours a day at work or at school.

            1. Your situation is very similar to what we of the small remnant have to endure. Many times we think there is something wrong with us, because we see the world differently or have fewer friends. Perhaps we listen to our unwashed friends or family members who mean well and recommend we see a therapist.

              But once we walk into the first session, we realize we made a big mistake. The unwashed in no way can tell the washed how to live and think.

              For the therapist, it’s all about filling his or her appointment calendar. Don’t go, it will never end well for peculiar people.

              1. It is so easy for those who see a lot of things wrong with the world to be depressed and/ or misdiagnosed with a mental illness. Most “normal” people blindly accept the garbage in this world or, better yet, they just don’t see it. Those who do see the crap going on in this world and point it out are branded out of place and/or have mental issues.

                The truth is that the so called “conspiracy theorist nut” has been very correct lately.

                I pray for humanity to see the light and do something to improve things, but, sadly most don’t see the world’s ills and as a result deserve to suffer their fate as mentioned in the Book of Revelations.

            2. I went to a psychologist 15 years ago when I lived around Boston because I was depressed and felt like I didn’t fit in. My experience is that they really do not cure your issues because otherwise they would lose the cash annuity that patients pay them. They just string you along to the next session and before you know it the sessions never end and you are never cured. It is a money racket for them. The psychologist really was not interested in my case but took me in more for the fees.
              As it turned out, a local psychic, helped me out a lot more than the psychologist. This was before turning back to Jesus Christ.

              As a born again Christian I would NOT recommend Psychics. Most psychics are in touch with demonic spirits.

              Your best counselor and guide is Jesus Christ. If you are feeling bad , get down and pray, repent of your sins , then Jesus Christ will shower you with love and guidance to a better life in the spirit.

            3. Yes – it’s a scam. Who are these people? I watched my ex manipulate a well regarded psychologist. He started the session with, ‘Dr. x, you look even younger than the last time we met’. I was hoping for her to see through this, the expert in psychology but she blushed and batted her eyelashes and thanked him profusely. 🙄 Game over for me. I never went back.

      2. It is the result of the Industrial System and resulting leftism. Read the Unabomber manifesto….he laid it all out for everyone and was spot on…..but everyone labeled the man a nutter…..he was dead on accurate.

        What do we see today?….mass psychological problems, poor diets, low impulse control, feelings of inferiority, depression, anxiety, rootlessness, etc. All as a result of an unnatural life that was created by industrialism.

        Now that it is failing due to resource depletion and a failing financial system you are seeing an increasingly psychotic meltdown of the population.

        Quite frankly, you haven’t seen anything yet. Once this system fails, you are going to see people lose their entire pensions, retirements, jobs, etc. and they will literally jump off of bridges, jump out of windows, drive their cars into medians, etc. You will see people realize their entire life was a complete lie and they won’t cope well.

        Get ready for whats coming…..actually being psychologically prepared for this system meltdown will help you out…..just don’t think you are getting your little government pension or your retirement……that stuff won’t exist anymore. Might want to make friends with some good people that have skills in basic things like farming, horticulture, carpentry, plumbing, nursing, food storage, map makers, geo-caching, wood workers, leather makers, locksmiths, cabinent makers, etc. These are probably some good people to know and trade with in the future.

  2. Lumber prices have never been this high at this time of the year. We are going into Spring home building season, and the squeeze is on with higher construction costs.

    The trucker convoys are helping to keep prices rising. The trucker convoys have really helped real estate investors.

    As I have said before, the trucker convoys come at a strange time for CB monetary response. This is why they have to be co-opted and staged now. Big promotion of the convoys in the MSM. Convoys getting the blame for everything now.

    Keep the convoys coming. It helps those with the income generating assets.

  3. For those old enough, I remember the alt-media, led by Alex Jones who was whipping everybody up into a frenzy, and their proclamations in 2008 with baby Bush as the president. They said that the Georgia invasion and the incursions into Ukraine were starting World War III.

    I remember listening to the Christian radio in my dad’s workshop, back during the Iraq War in 1991. Those Zionist morons on the radio were saying it was a fulfillment of Bible prophecy and that it was the beginning of Ezekiel’s great war..
    Eventually they will be right. A stopped clock is right twice a day.

    The globalists are playing with ya!

  4. Here’s a video from Bart Sibrel that came out in the past day or two.

    Is the World Ending SOON?

    https://www.brighteon.com/768a77dd-991b-4e0e-bae7-24a503aea877

    I don’t necessarily disagree with any of it. He could be right. Though I’ve heard about all this stuff for about 20 years now, especially going into 2012. But he could be correct.

    But this is not the type of stuff I analyze on my blog. I’m an expert in economics, finance, and forecasting. I don’t know whether this whole system will crash within the next year or so, but unless I know for certain, I will make no such claim.

    Maybe the whole system will crash next month.

    I can say one thing for certain. I’m looking at the weekly charts of the major stock averages in the United States and I am making a bold proclamation here. Something is happening, it is not good, and it is manifesting in the stock averages. Something is not good with the way the FED is handling inflationary circumstances. Something is not good with most things in this world.

    Maybe Bart is correct, and the jabs are used as a slow burn to kill off a big chunk of the population here in the West before an asteroid destroys the planet.

    Maybe Bart is correct. But I don’t use it in my analysis.

  5. USA got one more year, maybe less, before the situation deteriorates significantly.

    Enjoy your life.

    Putrid

    1. Why one year or less? Take a look around, it is already deteriorated significantly. This country is completely unrecognizable from the one just before 9/11.

      1. Within a year System conditions will alter significantly and semi-permanently, after which next phase Reset becomes high probability.

        Yes, the USA has been in trouble for a few decades, but at least you enjoyed peace and prosperity. You were blessed.

        This will be its first Reset.

        The first one is always hardest.

  6. Chris, it’s becoming almost impossible to get a house in Canada with less than 20 percent down. If asset confiscation (of homes) is in the near future, the wiser downpayment would be the least (5%), so that you cut your loses should your home (and equity with it) be confiscated. But do you think it’s still worth the risk with 20% down here on in, say for owner-occupied?

    Winnipeg and Edmonton are the most affordable cities in Canada at the moment. They also happen to be very cold places, but on the bright side, more conservatives reside there.

    1. I do know that the Canadian cities in the Great Plains areas are definitely cheaper. A combination of the weather as well as the cheaper land have a play in that. It’s interesting to observe this, since the equivalent housing in the United States are selling for only a fraction of the prices.

      My concern for those who will remain unvaxed is simple. Many of us will be increasingly shut out of the economy. And I agree with the thoughts of many here. Although the authorities have pulled back on the mandates, they have not eliminated them. Eventually they will reappear. In the United States, this will only happen after a force majeure such as a war. In the nations with a more centralized approach to governing, they could appear at any time.

      Yes, I grew concerned that many of us will no longer be able to service these types of mortgages, especially if they are running negative cash flow on rental. Moreover, recent pro-tenant regulations could make difficult to collect rent if a person is not experienced.

      As for buying an owner occupied house, I say just continue doing what you intend to do. My concerns only rest with those attempting to build a rental portfolio.

      1. Keep in mind that while the governments may be backing off on vaccine mandates the private employers in the US and elsewhere are NOT backing off from the vaccine mandates. In fact the US supreme court stated that employers are allowed to mandate vaccines but OSHA cannot. Just google companies firing unvaccinated employees and you will find a whole list. Basically the pressure to get vaccinated is being shifted to businesses and local governments. The vaccine push is still there but it is just being shifted to other parties. It aint over till its over (when Jesus Christ returns). I also feel the Western cabal are desperate to foment a war in Ukraine to distract from their crimes and deflect the discontent of their voters.

        1. I just recently came up with this crazy conspiracy idea (you have read it here first!). The goal of all these crazy vax mandates by local governments and big corporations could be to set all these institutions up for huge legal liability, therefore bankrupting and/or nationalizing them in the end. All these institutions are currently engaged in coercing their subjects (employees and citizens) towards accepting an experimental medical treatment. This is a “Hitler”-level atrocity, or at least it could easily be presented as one with a mere change to the prevailing political narrative. And since the latter is controlled by the s.o.s., they can engineer the narrative change when they see fit. The goal of confiscating / nationalizing all these institutions (while staying 100% within the existing legal framework!) would be both rational and ambitious enough to justify the almost cartoonish level of crazy we’re seeing.
          With all these big corps being pushed towards huge legal liability and/or nationalization, their stocks will drop a lot, thus leaving most people without their investments and pensions, making the people to pray to .gov “to do something”. We will thus get our Great Reset.

          Trade accordingly.

          1. Eugene,
            Great argument. That is a good possibility that these big corps are being set up for a big fall when the vaccines prove to be killers to the mainstream population. The CEOs will get their millions in golden parachute payments, workers will get laid off, their stock shares will crater and the plebes will lose their retirements as these corps will face huge lawsuit liabilities which will not be paid as they go bankrupt. This will set up for a big economic crash. This is a possible route that will be taken. Meanwhile the suckers who took these vaccines in the hopes of keeping their job will lose the job anyway as these corporations fold up. These suckers will also eventually die.

          2. Interesting. I made the same conclusion a couple of weeks ago and posted my thoughts on this blog. Maybe not exactly in your words or from your perspective, but the same idea.

            My point is the seemingly over paid individuals working in the tech field who are legitimately qualifying for vastly over priced homes may find their employer has run out of cheap money and soon to be taken over by the gov’t. Naturally this will be seen as a major victory over the greedy private corporations.

            In keeping with the communist tradition, everyone must be equal and everything must be fair. Will these over paid workers find themselves with a huge salary adjustment? Will their 30yr mortgage become a 60 yr mortgage or some form of creative financing that guarantees an income stream? Considering the massive overhaul in the mortgage sector since pre 08, I don’t think I’m too far off in my thinking.

            I formed this opinion only because nothing makes sense anymore. Because when things stop making sense trouble is around the corner. For example prior to 08 I was saying the same thing out loud. “There is no way my crappy condo that I paid $145K for in 1996 is worth $500K in 2007.” Soon after the house of cards collapsed. My condo went from $500K to $250K seemingly overnight but I just kept on like nothing happened.

    2. In NZ a bank told me it’s 20% down or 40% for a rental. I think 30% used to be normal so maybe it’s just that bank but I’m not sure.
      They are also very careful with who they give mortgages to now.
      If Covid’s doing anything to the market, it seems well hidden so far. So many people lost their jobs due to vax mandates but there are is no obvious increase in mortgagee sales or anything else.

  7. The vaccine mandante issue may not be going away. My state website has a vax verify tab where people can upload their vaccine status information. Same on my employer website, employees can upload their vaccine status information.

    My employer sent out a memo saying it was required for everyone to upload their information on a certain date. However that upload date was the same day as the OHSA ruling came back. The next day we received another memos saying it was no longer a requirement but voluntary.

    Currently there isn’t a vaccine requirement for driver’s licenses but I think there could be, as it is apart of the State apparatus. The vax verify tabs are still on my employer’s and State websites. These vax verify tabs have not been removed as they should have been. They may be able make it so people cannot log in or receive services if the info has not been entered.

    1. I left my job at the school board because of vaccine mandate – I had received one of those emails that asked for my status and I had replied with the unvaccinated option. Then I saw no way out (even with my notarized exemption) and retired. Now I am on the supply list for virtual teachers and since I am not dependent on them for my income, I don’t worry about any of their vaccine requirements. I get automated emails saying that they haven’t received my vaccine status (although I did fill one out in September), and I ignore them. What happened to my response way back then? Even though there is threatening language, coercing me to fill out this vaccine form, I’m still getting calls for teaching jobs. I digress here but I was shopping around for car insurance and there’s a rebate for those who will opt for an app that tracks your driving habits. No thanks, I don’t want to be tracked. I’d say, the less of these things you fill out – vaccine status, tracking apps, maybe even google maps, the better. My relative at Health Canada says that the government just does not have the capability (yet) to track all things and that they are depending on the good will (or stupidity) of people to offer it freely.

    2. I know someone where they did that and a few weeks later said “no vax, no job”.
      They can do a survey, then keep the results handy in case they need to trim the workforce with no fuss. Nobody resists a vax mandate. It’s so demoralizing.

  8. The S&P 500 and Dow futures broke down into Friday’s close and the weekly charts look as miserable as my ankles feel after a long walk.

    This week is the first week in this developing bear flag saga that the spoos and second time the Dow futures closed below the 50-week mva. I suspect the spoo emini’s will join the Nasdaq futures in their downward trek next week. The Nasdaq leads the way, since it is much more sensitive to bond yield movements. Growth stories are NG in a rising yield regime.

    As someone much older than I used to say… “NG” (no good)

  9. I’m more concerned they will do some type of blackout and/or cyber attack in the US, and blame it on Russia. That would quickly escalate things. They’v been conditioning the masses for this type of event for the past several years.

    1. The Fed is acting in a way that this theory makes more sense.

      Housing is going to get so expensive for people. Imagine 8% mortgage rates with rising rents and prices. Large institutional money can borrow for less than that at shorter durations and buy up the housing stock.

      We are being eased into something. If they do decide to cut off the electronics they lose track and trace control.

    2. Just because our enemies blame Russia doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be Russia.

      China and Russia’s power is such that they sometimes throw themselves under the bus as part of their hybrid warfare strategy. They know the West is a tinder box and they don’t really care much anymore for how we perceive them.

  10. The market and chart action on the weekly S&P futures contract has been a poor one and is ending the week on a sour note. Unless the spoos can mount a comeback here in the afternoon and move a lot higher on the day, the S&P has now broken below the 50 week SMA on a closing basis. The movement in the S&P has little to do with what’s going on in the Ukraine and all to do with the FED buffoonery.

    I note the coincidental timing of each. One running cover for the other.

    1. One running cover for the other. Exact same as covid. Stocks crash while media ramps up intensity of the new narrative. If they can get peoples buy in to the narrative, the Fed prints and the markets are supported!

      The dramatic 180 on the covid narrative and the subsequent shift to what seems to be war time propaganda makes me suspicious. Especially when the markets are looking weak. I wonder if a shooting war in Ukraine accompanies a drop in the market until the Fed supports and prints for war spending. Chris, if I remember correctly you previously wrote that the Fed could support 20T on it’s balance sheet. I wonder if we get one more euphoric war spending run up before the bond markets break.

      1. The Fed could support 100% of GDP in its balance sheet, as long as inflation remains low. Ben Bernanke said as much in an interview, and he pointed to Japan as an example. At the time, inflation was only running around 1.5%. I completely agreed with his assessment.

        That’s not the case anymore, and investors are beginning to lose confidence in the Fed’s abilities to balance its act. They are coming across as a bunch of buffoons. I use that word deliberately, as all the major players in the FED are white and are Trump holdouts.

        If the Fed cannot control inflation (i.e. shows that it is unable to using conventional means) the whole system behind quantitative easing could unravel and place the current monetary system in existential peril.

        I do know that federal government spending has contracted quite a bit when compared to the previous couple years, and I suspect that it will be under orders to continue reining in its spending.

        If QE can no longer maintain itself, I do grow increasingly concerned of the possibility of asset confiscations.

  11. look at the massive growth in the percentage of homes being purchased by large investors. They are now driving the rental and purchase markets. I was warning the reader four or five years ago about this impending problem and this was a primary reason why I was recommending housing. It was the only economic and financial sector left that had been virtually untouched by institutional money.

    “Big investors are hogging American homes”

    https://www.axios.com/investors-homes-wealth-families-bc792e11-a91e-4da5-97ad-b6e48e5dfd2a.html

    1. Do you think they will find a way to hurt small landlords? Usually these collectivization efforts try to eliminate independent players.

      Maybe the “supply chain crisis” will cause repairs to become exorbitant for independent landlords who aren’t well connected. Or, the institutions will use their political power to push for higher taxes, which will disproportionately hurt smaller landlords. Or perhaps they’ll turn rent into something that requires borrowing, and people will feel more comfortable borrowing from an institutional landlord.

      I think you’ll be fine but I always consider what the Protocols or WEF thinks about the idea of “owning nothing.”

      1. Poorly funded and over leveraged small landlords have been getting decimated over the past two years. I talked to a small landlord who owns and has rented out a unit above one of my condos and according to him, he didn’t get paid for 18 months.

        You are correct here. The name of the game during this supposed covid crisis is to kick out all of the small landlords and replace them with large institutional ones. These large institutions are continually buying up single-family properties and have access to much cheaper money. Moreover they’re not encumbered with mortgages per se, but pay cash with proceeds that are derived from billion dollar debt offerings. When mortgage rates and term lengths are more advantageous, these large institutions are able to refinance into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backed mortgages, thus lowering monthly outlays.

        Personally for me, I have to live a very austere lifestyle and take on very little leverage. The requirements of paperwork at the county level has doubled over the past three or four years. The costs to maintain my properties have been spiraling higher and higher, and I do much of the work myself. This is one of the reasons why I maintain a very low leverage on my property portfolio, rather than leveraging up to buy more.

        My competition is no longer the fellow small investor. My true competition is the large private equity money.

        I have come across a number of longer-term investors who have been cashing out of the landlord business and taking advantage of the higher house prices.

        1. Here’s the problem with the tenant laws around the country, especially in the blue states. These areas have become very pro-tenant, ostensibly to help renters. The problem is that these regulations have put the landlord at a disadvantage and the only ones who can effectively deal with them are the larger landlords. Thus, many of the small landlords can no longer deal with all of the pro-tenant rules, including when it comes to non-payment of rent. Very often the landlord tenant relationship has become very litigious. Only large investors know how to take advantage of the regulations, the housing voucher programs, and legal costs.

          The whole irony is that these pro tenant regulations actually hurt the tenants in the long run as they weed out the smaller landlords and only the large landlords are left. These large landlords very often have a hand in crafting these regulations and eventually muscle their way into controlling more and more of the market over time.

  12. The more housing the large corporate institutions purchase, the more expensive rents will become over the years.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/selling-out-americas-local-landlords-moving-big-investors-2021-07-29/

    Until recently, the individual owner and investor controlled the market for single family rentals. This has changed and the more housing stock that is gobbled up by the institutions the worse the rental market will become for the average renter. House prices are determined on the margin and these institutions are determined to buy as much as they can regardless of interest rates. Even if they control only 15 to 20% of single family rentals, that is enough drive up the prices of rents. If you want to taste of things to come for renters look to the past 2 years in the rental market for glimpse of the future.

    40% of Americans rent and they are going to continue to be pressured by the institutions helping to define the rental marketplace. And it doesn’t matter whether mortgage rates are 4% or 10%. The institutions will always get the cheap money and have billions of dollars of cash already on hand waiting to deploy in any weakness.

    Welcome to the New World Order.

  13. There will be no REAL collapse anytime soon. That would make globalists have to work way too hard. The bullsh*t machine works well, fear, fake media, demoralization, it’s basically become Central Psyop Scrutinization. It’s so much easier (and less costly) to string the sheep along slowly…

    A traditional civil war will not happen in the USA either. Where will it start? How will the angry mobs get there? Who’s neighborhood? The urban bus lines don’t run to rural areas and rural people won’t enter gross urbanity. There’s a very slim chance (IMHO <3%) of a military coup. At best, we'll get a few guerilla-style attacks here and there, targeting the usual infrastructures. I would not be surprised if Central Psyops starts crafting false-flag political assasination attempts. Gotta keep those sheep scared.

    Times are so warped, I started reading the KJV Bible for an injection of truth and ancient perspective. Surprisingly, the reading is calming me. Started at Gospel of John, then Acts, Romans… What's clear at this point is human nature never changes. Never.

    1. Absolutely correct. The only way that there will be unrest is if the governments forcibly try to jab us. That clearly has not happened, and the scare tactics in the media were there for that; to scare us into getting the jabs. It worked for the most part.

      All these supposed trucker convoys serve a great purpose for our adversary. They are there as a release valve for the people who feel they have no more power. They do indeed have no more power, but they somehow feel connected to a bunch of truckers in a far-off area. The MSM pushes the trucker convoys to assuage the plebs who have lost all power and rights in the political and economics realm.

      The collapse has been ongoing and only the older people can really see the differences. Our ways of life have been dramatically altered since 1971, and only a few now can recall back that far. Although I’m a first year Gen-Xer, I can only remember as far back as 1970. The way of life back then was so different than today. The societal collapse and moral decay has been breathtaking. We’ve already collapsed.

      The organs of government like the Department of Homeland Security are really there to keep the citizens in line. The government and elite become more paranoid over the citizenry as the elites take more of the power and wealth away. These federal agencies and militarized police forces are there to keep the livestock in line as they are fleeced and led into the cattle pan. DHS was ultimately designed to see us as the enemy.

    2. Paunch, I agree. I see entropic decline. Murkins are well watered and fed by advances on their paychecks (revolving credit) and .gov assistance. I see long, genetic descent into blubbering blue eyed goatherds. Note the ad industry’s working theme is the blonde white woman with the negro male.

      The only trigger to massive violence I see is if ZOG pushes too many racial aliens on us too fast. And I think this is what ZOG wants to do. The white man is the enemy of globalism. The white man has the instincts towards individual dignity. Note that nationalism is crushed mercilessly. The Serbs, the Germans, the South know….

  14. Five-week weekly bear flag on the S&P e-mini’s. Not looking good at all. A poor day that got worse. I am a seller on dips as the spoos ready to take out the 50-week sma in earnest.

    A natural support level will be 4250 then 4000 then the 100-week sma. Could take weeks, could be sudden.

    Gold 🥇🔑🏆🌟 is saying it is not going well. Many do not have the faith in the Fed. Gold is the true monetary metal, and only recommend that for safety.

    Inflation could get ugly like in the late 70s. Beware….

  15. I think housing prices will continue to rise due to more money printing by central banks and the fact that the big investment firms and the wealthy elite are snapping up single family houses. Even if the population drops housing prices will still stay up due to the elite owning everything and enforcing their ownership. Chris, you are right about housing prices rising through the late seventies and early eighties. I remember that when my family was moving up north.

    Society, especially western society is collapsing as it becomes a social toilet bowl. Just look around you unless you live in a cave. The synagogue of satan wants to destroy the USA from within by throwing controversies at us that divide us and promoting open borders and racial guilt on us whites. The world is falling apart, however one must still earn a living and be independent like Chris suggests. Owning rental properties is one way to accomplish that. It is best to be self employed so one does not have to be subject to employer mandates(such as Covid Vaccines).

    As Christians, we must stay alive and still make our way in this world. We should keep our minds focused on the ways of Jesus Christ and keep in mind the Lord and his heavenly kingdom is permanent while this worldly toilet bowl is only transitory. In addition, count your blessings and be thankful.

    Here is sound advice from the Bible Matthew chapter 10 verse 16:
    “Behold, I send you out as sheep in the midst of wolves. Therefore be wise as serpents and harmless as doves.

    Amen and God Bless

  16. Detached single-family housing was the final frontier of debt and equity securitization agreements. These investors will be ruthless and the money will flood in to the housing markets forever.

    Here’s an article from inman.com.

    Unison securitizes record $443M in residential equity agreements
    As home prices soar, institutional investors warm to the idea of taking an equity stake in single family homes

    https://www.inman.com/2022/02/09/unison-securitizes-record-443m-in-residential-equity-agreements/?

  17. The trading technicals are definitely turning out the way we thought. Stocks continue to get hit, and eventually they’re going to give way. While at the same time, gold is shining and breaking out of its pennant formation as the global investor continues to lose more confidence daily in the monetary system and the Fed’s ability to manage it effectively.

    Oh, the dollar will still be around in some form, it’s just that the United States and its Federal Reserve have begun to look like a bunch of buffoons.

    The FED had been saying, oh there is no inflation problem. They were the only ones. Now they recognize that ex post facto. What a bunch of willfully ignorant fools at the helm. They look so stupid that we know it was intentional. Oh Chris, that sounds so conspiratorial.

  18. Here in Fairfax County,Virginia and Prince George’s County, Maryland, the housing market is overwhelmed with non-English speaking foreigners. Based on my property management experiences, it seems that the majority of these people were shipped from overseas in the past five years. These people have overwhelmed working class neighborhoods, and if you are a millennial, you have your political correctness to thank for the unaffordability of housing.

    It is a depressing and disheartening demographic and you can take your political correctness and stick it. I am no xenophobe, but rather I engage in property management and landlording specifically because I know of the agenda to water down and destroy the United States from within. The goal of the globalists is to destroy the native citizenry here who respect and understand the Constitution, and replace them with lower-IQ, non-English speaking people who are used to living under third world dictatorships. They depend on the government and do exactly what is commanded.

    These foreigners are solely responsible for increasing the population here in the states and are the primary reason why demographics continue to benefit landlords and real estate investors.

    We would be stupid to sit and complain about how the foreigners are taking over the country and not benefit. At least I can drive around and see the stupid people in the stores and say, “well, at least I’m their landlord.”

    1. You are a landlord presiding over a slum…..good job……hope you like the third worlders that pay you with government script. If this is what you look forward to then good luck with that.

      The millenials had nothing to do with the creation of this monetary scheme back in 1913…..they had nothing to do with the 1965 immigration act that led to third worldism.

      We are headed for collapse…..we are not going to be able to maintain the infrastructure here.

      1. Don’t get offended or take it personally. Beat the adversary at their own game. I am not your enemy. But you don’t like my delivery, thus, I am the bad man.

        I taught college economics and finance courses until the late aughts. I saw what the millennials were learning. Socialism, open borders under the guise of free trade, and Marxism. I was so repulsed by it, I stopped teaching. The colleges were inculating a type of victim mentality in the students. In only 20 years after I left undergrad, it seems the whole curriculum had changed. Do you know what I’m talking about?

        I do not rent out to people who cannot speak English. If there is a lack of understanding through a language barrier, I pass. What I do find wonderful for me is that they drive the rents all the way up the chain.

        We have been collapsing for decades. Notice house prices more than doubled from 1975-1985, while mortgage rates were double digits. I heard the same crap back then. I dated a woman in collage and her dad was hoarding gold. He died with little money and drove old cars. Swore to me that we were going to collapse. That was 1987 after the crash.

        1. The world wasn’t openly praising transgenders, homosexuals, third world people, etc. in 1987. The US didn’t have 30 Trillion in debts and wasn’t mired in endless wars in the middle east and literally retreating from goat herders. The infrastructure was still sound and you didn’t have random bridges collapsing like we do now. I see the population as complete cattle….73% of the population are either obese or overweight…..are they going to be maintaining the infrastructure? How about all of the somalis that have an average IQ of 70?……they never even invented the wheel. The decline is rapidly accelerating…..everyday I hear of someone being killed by some feral animal who survives off the welfare system. I think 1987 would be a gift compared to today.

          I don’t think you are a bad man but do find some of your commentary to be a bit flippant but you are much more of an expert regarding real estate. Quite frankly, I think we are absolutely doomed and the man who died with nothing was just ahead of his time. LOL

    2. For now, eventually they’ll kill you. As the money becomes worthless, we enter Mad Max territory.

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