Okay I thought it was the Edomites. Maybe it’s the termites!
Anyway, the market is reacting very optimistically and recovered in the middle of Tuesday. Chris your stock pick SELF is holding up really good, especially after they had an offering. OEG is still holding up in the 2 range. Does Bitcoin rise back to all new highs this year? Do metals and miners uptick for a few months? Does Oil prices reach a new high? Seems like there may be a bullish sentiment for a few months.
The only stock I’m actually holding that I’ve recommended in the past is SELF.
I have not been recommending any small cap growth stocks since at least the summer of last year. With rising inflation and the likelihood of higher interest rates, I had been recommending from staying away from all the growth stocks, especially the smaller ones. I do not like OEG, and had been trashing that one as their management doesn’t seem to mind diluting current shareholders. With the government paring back the rate of their spending, I didn’t want to be involved in any of those alternative energy and green stocks.
Most of my thoughts and sentiments are posted inside the comments sections, and while I may be bullish on a particular stock in a blog post, I will subsequently turn bearish and announce it in the comments section of another post.
As you can tell, I haven’t really been talking too much about the markets as I think everything that we have discussed over the past decade is now pretty clear and the consensus for everyone to see. My concern is that everybody believes that QE will just solve the markets and any difficulties.
Controlled opposition and market Cassandra, Zero Hedge is out with its sarcasm regarding how the FED will raise interest rates and tighten to the point of market collapse and then loosen again. This seems to be the consensus of a large percentage of investors and traders, too. This guiding philosophy makes certain that the markets never actually collapse as each dip is feverishly bought up.
I think the problems around the world are much more pressing to us and I’ve been concentrating on those. Circumstances are coalescing and I believe that they are all pointing towards some sort of end scenario. If this were the case, I would believe that the Federal Reserve has been handed the perfect opportunity to prove investors wrong and blow up the financial markets in the future.
While I am not saying the Fed will blow it up, it could if the powers wanted. What makes me believe this is by gauging our adversary’s prior actions and behaviors.
To wit, I observe how the monetary and fiscal authorities developed social programs designed to directly affect inflation on the price level. It was clear to us as far back as April of 2020 that the prices of all income generating assets were going to go through the stratosphere.
Back then we contemplated why the powers were doing that. I thought it was very foolish to engage in such direct transfer policies, and believed that they had another purpose in mind. Now we see the results of these policies, and to make matters worse, the central banks and governments around the world remained willfully ignorant to the inflationary fallout from their programs for over a year. They let it grow out of control to its current level.
Now, they want to rein it all in. The Federal Reserve has a Herculean task in front of it, and if they engage in such policy magic like the late ’70s, most investors will not survive it this time around.
I submit the current monetary and financial system circumstances were purposely engineered for some desired future outcome. There was nothing left to chance here, and the synagogue of Satan knew exactly what they were doing. They still know exactly what they are doing. These powers are not stupid and if they want to devise a collapse, what better way to do it than by employing horrible policies under the guise of fighting a fake pandemic, letting the fall out from those policies get way out of control for too long, and then respond in a way that destroys the average small person.
In this regard, the Federal Reserve and the federal government will get the blame. QE can only survive long-term in a low inflationary environment. Perhaps these powers are juicing the monetary system as much as possible, so they can drain as much wealth as they can before some future event or set of events take place.
The PPI numbers this morning were mixed bag, but these numbers are still outrageous.
I would have to assume that Bitcoin will follow the vagaries of the general marketplace, and if the Federal Reserve is as hawkish as I think it could get, all bets are off. I still own the Bitcoin and don’t intend to sell as I think it has a good future, and it will probably put in all time highs again this year. From a chart perspective I had been bearish on bitcoin since around its 50 day SMA and theorized it would touch the 100 and 200 day SMA, as a matter of course. But it exhibited a similar behavior around the longer term moving averages as it did around the shorter term, and that’s why it fell further. It’s recovered nicely off that drop below $40,000 though. That could have been the wash out.
I’m not a big fan of the mining stocks and never have been, so when it comes to precious metals I will always recommend owning the metal directly. That is one tough business.
As for energy stocks and energy, I’m certainly not as bullish as I was when oil was trading for nothing a couple years ago. If I were a long-term energy investor I would be contemplating selling off some of my holdings here as the prices have risen tremendously in sympathy with the price rise in oil.
With regard to my trading and investing recommendations over the next year or two, I wouldn’t bail out of the markets yet. A fully loaded freight train can take at least two miles to come to a stop. I think of how the financial markets responded during the tightening campaign of the mid-aughts, and marveled at the delay of the onset of the engineered Great Recession and the collapse of real estate. From the beginning of the tightening campaign in 2004, to the top and down slope, was a full three years. Investors do not give up so easily and will speculate all the way to the bitter end.
There are always delays in the outcome, and I suspect we will see the same with this instance. But the money has become very easy to obtain once again. I pointed out in a previous comment how investor money has gotten almost as easy and cheap to obtain as back during the height of the real estate bubble. These private lenders are tripping over themselves and I get a couple emails a day from them.
In my study of our adversary regarding the financial markets, one thing is clear; they plan each cycle years in advance, and we are being set up for a doozy of a bust. If the powers cannot get price inflation under control in a practical manner, I pity the over leveraged investor.
Don’t think that the dollar will go the way of the Turkish lira or Russian ruble. Nothing could be further from the truth. If we get a run by over-leveraged investors, the dollar could really make a nice run.
When I see hundreds of new YouTube videos by dummy real estate investors telling us that owning rental properties is a one-way ticket to riches, I take the contra. I come across people in my daily routine telling me how they finally bought their first rental property within the past few months. I marvel at how predictable people really are and nothing ever changes. It was the same garbage in the mid aughts.