End of inflation? Here’s when experts think gas, housing prices could stabilize in California – Sacramento Bee.
You and I know that we shouldn’t put any credence into the so-called expert predictions, as they never seem to be correct. This is why I’ve always instructed the reader to take the contra, by default.
However, I am predicting much lower housing price and rent rate GROWTH over the next 12 months. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is that the federal government is reining in its spending.
Check out the large net short position of the 10-year UST futures of the large and small speculators, which includes hedge funds as well as Joe six-pack.
The once large net short position of the speculators in the long Bond futures has diminished quite a bit, as they have shifted their focus to the shorter duration USTs in anticipation of Fed fund hikes.
This is why we see a growing net short in the 10 years futures. But as I have always said in the past, we should take the contra.
The once large spending bills that were being contemplated have been scaled back or eliminated, and this is fixed income bullish.
This also signals a clearer path to higher asset prices, which of course, include stocks, bonds, and real estate. The killing of the BBB bill is probably the most important development in the asset markets over the past six months
While President Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) today, allocating $768 billion to the Department of Defense for the 2022 fiscal year, this type of spending is not as inflationary as direct transfers of social spending. Much of the defense spending is shifted overseas or remains in the financial shell. The legislation sailed through both houses of Congress as a number of deficit hawk legislators dropped any pretense about spending concerns and voted for the bill.
Even Sen. Manchin voted for the NDAA package.