3/20 Market Update; Keeping our perspective in a changing world; My one real worry

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Keeping perspective on bond yields and interest rates. The latest moves are well within the preexisting long-term channels.

-A top down view of the equity markets and some thoughts of what may come.
-Viewing the changes in bond yields, and interest and mortgage rates. I observed that over the past 60 years, the 10s/2s spread narrows to near zero or below leading up to all recessions. My thoughts on why that is the case.
-Trading and investing based on outliers.
-A discussion on the ongoing legislation in the developed world regarding rent and mortgage moratoriums.
-A discussion of the pitfalls in investing based on the dire pronouncements of futurists and those who are covered in the media. Even if you knew of COVID beforehand, you would have been on the wrong side anyway.
-My one growing worry regarding current monetary policy. It has more to do with investor and trader psychology and less to do with quantitative measures and obscure indexes.
-When the entire pool of traders, investors, and MSM and alt-media outlets report on QE effectiveness as a given, perhaps it’s finally time to contemplate taking the contra, since this means that risk taking will have been finally taken to the extreme.
-QE works when there is a lot of doubt in its integrity. Since late 2012, I stopped doubting it, and was able to successfully invest based on its viability.
-This doubt in QEs viability was good; for the first 11 years of QEs lifetime, fiscal policymaking reflected this doubt and investor risk was better managed. This is no longer the case as governments and investors have lost all restraint. If these people think that QE can solve humanity’s woes, perhaps it’s time to begin to reassess.
-Does this mean that perhaps QE’s demise is one misstep away?

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11 thoughts on “3/20 Market Update; Keeping our perspective in a changing world; My one real worry

  1. What do you make of the Suez Canal situation? It seems like a manufactured crisis. What do you think is the goal and what do you think will be the effect on stocks?


    I normally do not get involved with over-the-counter stock plays, but supposedly there is a lot of chatter on the message boards about these two shell companies being the subject of probable reverse mergers. If that’s the case these could go up many times over the next several months. I have positions in both and will accumulate on any pullbacks. Please do your research and due diligence.

    1. Also been holding KYNC and that h kept the account in the green today. All shells nd reverse merger stuff

      1. That WKEY call was very timely. Wish I owned. Bought some more AWGI. KYNC holding up

  3. Looking at a couple stocks. Nothing too earth shattering, but as long as I can scalp them, it’s okay. Another green day while I read.

    GRNQ CNET ZKIN. Also bought some EMAN off that dip in the 3.80s. EMAN still not up with KOPN and MVIS. It should be.

    Gradually buying LGLOF on this dip into the low/mid .80s. A filing company and listed on Vancouver.

    1. Vaccine passports are 100% coming. It’s already being openly discussed on the local news here. Also hearing things like “vaxed people will not count toward capacity limits”. There is an effort here

  4. I remember how you said to never go against the Agenda 2030 stocks. You always said to never bet against UBER. I bought 100 shares in the upper 30s last Summer after you wrote about it. We don’t own cars and everything is electric. LYFT is on higher. People stay at home and have everything delivered.

    1. I was surfing the stocktwits boards today. There may be a couple good ones to trade tomorrow. Keep you posted.

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