2/11 Update; The key to profitable speculation; Always test and question your assumptions

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-Operating under the right set of assumptions is the key to long-term trading success. Knowing why an asset is moving is the key to a proper trading response.
-It is impossible to trade successfully with a preexisting confirmation bias.
-I observed that during yesterday’s mid-morning flash crash, every asset class dropped. That provides a clue as to what we may expect the next time we see a correction.
-I have received many emails and such asking me about commodities. My response is the same here: All asset classes have moved up remarkably well.
-All asset classes are now in sync and are incumbent on continued Fed action. Don’t mistake the upswing in commodity prices as a litmus test here for USD doom. This action is being intentionally injected by recent Fed policy.
-This is important to understand, because if the Fed reverses its course in any way, look out in all asset classes, especially commodities. Don’t hold to a confirmation bias planted by ZeroHedge that says the dollar is toast. That is a one-way ticket to poverty and massive losses.
-Know when to pull the trigger for profit.

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6 thoughts on “2/11 Update; The key to profitable speculation; Always test and question your assumptions

  1. Chris I haven’t heard you talk much about cryptocurrencies, specifically “altcoins” (coins other than Bitcoin and ethereum) beyond a passing mention. While accessing the crypto markets is still more complicated than setting up a stock trading account, a little bit of effort is well worth it, since it will put you within trading range of one of the most active bull markets in history that is occurring right now. Even if you reject crypto bc you think it is bringing you into the beast system (which it is) the gains that can be made are substantial and can be cashed out for real income-generating assets. Just about any coin in the top 300 or 400 is mooning right now. It must be like what the tech bubble was like when uselesscompanywithnovalue.com was valued in the millions.

    I got sick and tired of storing PMs and watching the price action do very little when compared to the crypto market so I sold my metals and put the proceeds into crypto, where I saw significantly more price appreciation in just a few months by just buying and holding than I ever did storing physical gold and silver for 8 years. Don’t get me wrong – I believe gold and silver really do have more real value than digital currencies, but if you want to make good money so you accumulate real assets, crypto is the way to go – as long as people take your advice and take profits on the regular since altcoins are very volatile and can all crash together at the drop of a hat when “altcoin season” ends.

    I think TPTB are moving a large part of their wealth into the crypto markets. I think they have been accumulating silently over the last couple years when the altcoin market was ‘dead’, while publically denouncing cryptocurrencies or just seeming to ignore them. I think the recent surge in DOGEcoin by billions in market cap (the crypto that Elon Musk said was the future of crypto) was a stealth play by hedge funds and capital pools to move large amounts of money into bitcoin, ethereum and altcoins under the guise of ‘redditor vigilantes.’ The giveaway is that redditors just don’t have that kind of cash, even as a collective mass. The truth about DOGE is that it was created as joke to show that anyone could create crypto and have it gain value. But I wonder if this “joke story” was really a cover for stealth money transfers into crypto bc this “joke” coin’s market cap has been in the hundreds of millions since the last btc peak in 2018 and is currently valued at 8.7 billion.

    I hope I don’t anger you by posting about this obvious beast system mechanism on your site. I only post about it because it is a way for your audience to catch up financially from the alt media’s misdirection that you have so brilliantly elaborated on. However, I would caution people bc the bullrun is well underway and there is such a thing as being late to the party but I think it is still early enough that people can benefit financially. I would just advise them to avoid FOMO’ing in to coins that have really mooned quickly (FOMO’ing=investing out of a fear of missing out) bc the market has already priced in their future value and does not necessarily reflect their actual fundamentals.

  2. Morgan Stanley came out this morning and established a bunch of buy and sell recommendations on the EV sector. Just as we suspected, the analyst predicts shake out, and this is why we are seeing consolidation in the stocks of the EV sector. While he rated QS as a buy with a $70 target, he rated RMO as a sell with a steep drop prediction in its price to 12.

    Things evolve quickly with the speculative stocks. Too many small EV producers and I think most of them will be eventually trading for fractions of their current prices.

  3. Cut looses much of my OTC stocks at open. Don’t like the action here. May buy back later.

  4. So I guess everything will move higher? Like you say, the trend is your friend. The privacy coins are also moving up out of their long time trading ranges.

  5. There was a FED Monetary Policy Report on the calendar today for 11:00 a.m. – then it moved to 4:00 p.m. which then disappeared.

    Was there one, or is the policy implied from Powells comments yesterday?

    1. I think you are correct. I guess it disappeared because of the impeachment trial. The Senate is too busy doing whatever it wants to do. Powell spoke on Wednesday and reiterated that since inflation is low and unemployment rates are high, he estimated 10% unemployment, accommodative policy is going to remain for a while. I totally agree on it. When the policy report is released to the Senate, I do not know.

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