1/22 Update; My thoughts on gold and bitcoin

What’s ailing gold?

I had a couple of readers ask me what I thought of gold. Since it has been counterintuitively struggling ever since the post-covid QE programs were announced, I wanted to provide you with some assessments.

If you have been a long-time reader of my blog and research, you will recall that I believed that the prices of gold and silver were allowed to run up in 2010-11, so that they could be managed from higher levels. I even offered  this theory in February 2013 on henrymakow.com, which I followed up with a stark warning to his readers again in early April 2011, a few days before gold’s epic crash below major support levels. (written under a pseudonym).

In the case of gold, these parabolic increases allow the establishment to manage its price in a counterintuitive fashion to help hide their QE tracks. I also suspected that the sharp increases in late 2019-early 202o were not coincidental either. While the central banks crank out QE in their response to the manufactured covid crisis, the price of gold fades; albeit from a higher level.

My main argument against bitcoin is that it has become a de facto replacement for gold, and if Bitcoin never existed I suspect that gold would be about $1,000 higher.

Here is a Twitter post from Zero Hedge which discusses JP Morgan’s assessment of cryptocurrencies.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1352456598661304320?s=09

I think it speaks for itself. You could easily take the word “cryptocurrencies” out and replace it with the word “gold”.

Of this much I am sure, without Bitcoin gold would be about $3,000.

The whole irony is this; I have to believe bitcoin greatly facilitates this current QE scheme. Most bitcoin bulls think it’s the other way around, but since it is becoming increasingly apparent Bitcoin was allowed to flourish, I have to believe it was a creation of our adversary.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1352456598661304320?s=09

Please, don’t criticize me for thinking that I am bashing Bitcoin. I am not. I am just making the straight up observations on the obvious, rather than dancing around the elephant in the room.

20 thoughts on “1/22 Update; My thoughts on gold and bitcoin”

  1. Sort of off topic here, Chris. Just wondering what your thoughts are buying rental properties in oil drilling/fracking towns, considering the anti-oil policies that are no doubt coming. Still worthwhile or a dud? What about buying in same places with renting out a suite in owner-occupied situation?

    Thanks in advance. 🙂

    1. Though I never discussed buying real estate in oil drilling regions, we can see the results of those have or have run businesses there. It’s a real boom/bust ordeal. I recall earlier last decade how S.D. and the Northern great plains couldn’t build enough housing and infrastructure for the oil workers and booming industry. That is no longer a big problem as marginal oil demand and prices have moved lower.

      Oil will always be used in some way, but if we know the long-term trend, i would say to stay away. If we plan to own properties for 5-10 years, or more, I would try to locate RE in areas that would provide us with favorable price support and auspicious circumstances over the longer-term.

      I would always look for buying farm/ranch land in many of these areas, but I know that many sellers retain mineral or water rights when disposing of the land. It pays to make sure what we buy.

      I prefer to invest in properties that can be primarily used as owner-occupied vs. those built as rentals. Thus, I would steer clear of apt buildings and multi-unit dwellings. The reason here is simple; given the changes in employment demographics that have resulted from Covid, rental investments face a huge headwind with a change in political policy. It’s harder to find quality tenants when screening for multi-unit rentals. The quality of tenant is usually lower in those situations than if we were marketing a property that could be used as a single-family owner-occupied home. Prices hold up better in owner-occ homes and tenant quality is superior. This is why I stick to certain types of rental investments. I like to play all sides and cover myself under different scenarios. Those who invest in single-family homes have done very well during covid.

      Personally, i would rather invest in a couple condos and live in one while renting out the other. i think we have better price and rent protection than say, buying a four-plex and living in one unit.

  2. I am only holding core OEG and DFLYF positions and will no longer really be trading them. this market is too wild. I am just holding a core position and letting it go for now. It’s been a great ride for OEG and DFLYF holders. I won’t be giving updates on these stocks much more as they have definitely paid off and for those who lose out, there is no excuse. I had an obligation here, since I recommended the two.

    For those holding, I would always like to scale out over time and as the prices rise. Don’t hold like the SOL holders did going into the secondary offering announcement. I would rather buy after the offering.

    OEG can do very well in the future, but they will need more than the $45mm they raised. SOL’s secondary was for $250mm and they did two others not too long ago. I see OEG needing more money; perhaps as much as $100mm or more to bid on the contracts they say they will be working on.

    Out of 35 stocks on my screen today, OEG and DFLYF were #1 and #2 for the best returns. OEG was up an eye-popping 59% and DFLYF was up 37%. Yay!

  3. I wanted to post this for those who are interested. For the two stock picks we have been working on for the past week or so, I still like both. Both were on fire yesterday, up 22% and 30%.

    OEG; this stock continues to push up to new 52-week highs above 5, and yesterday’s trade was amazing. In after-market trade yesterday, I loaded back up on OEG to an almost 70% full trading position between $4.84 and $4.93.. I will look to see any sell off as another buying opportunity. Because of the poor secondary offering it is trading at a huge discount to its peers. It also generates more revenue than its peers and it has 45-50mm in cash on its balance sheet. Excellent position. If we look at ISUN, SOL, POLA, and SUNW, we see that OEG has favorable circumstances. I upgrade target to 10 from 8. OEG is more tilted to commercial market. with its huge trading volume, OEG is quickly leaving its secondary offering behind.

    DFLYF; it still looks nice short to intermediate term, but since it trades OTC, I don’t really like to hold huge positions over the weekends. TD Ameritrade does not allow me to trade OTC stocks in the pre and after markets. As of right now I’m mostly on the sidelines after this 30% day and will wait for dips to accumulate. If DFLYF traded on the Nasdaq it would be $10.

    1. Wow we hit a grand slam with OEG. Take some money off the table. Be very careful here. SOL just announced a surprise $250mm offering and the stock tanked as much as $10 from premarket. We could see another offering from OEG soon if the price runs up. These firms are quickly raising capital via equity offerings! BE CAREFUL. I am on the sidelines for now after the run past 6.50-7.25.

  4. Chris could bitcoin been invented to be like a warm up to the central bank’s own digital currency of the future. As a way to get the populace vaguely aware of what is it and easier to transition to digital currency. Also getting people to think it is an alternative but really it is a much more dystopian.

    1. That is exactly what I think. Based on my observations over the past few years, and given gold’s performance recently, it’s difficult not to conclude what you think.

      By providing a profit motive to those who find the potential gains of speculating in Bitcoin too hard to resist, the elites have encouraged computer savvy programmers worldwide to divert their attention and energies into developing blockchain technology. When the technology is fully developed, scalable, and feasible, the central banks will step in and just do what we already know is going to happen. They will digitize their currencies based on blockchain.

      This is just another reason why I think the elites have let bitcoin flourish in its present, wild form. This motivates people to get all attracted to an otherwise Orwellian and dystopian concept. People throw out their personal liberties when it comes to making money.

      Speaking frankly, I can’t think of an asset that is more antithetical to enhancing personal liberties than blockchain cryptocurrencies. This is especially true if we consider how gold has been maligned and marginalized over the past two to three years.

      I have to say that this military campaign against those who hate the monetary system has largely succeeded. They are quickly getting us away from gold, and it’s our choosing.

      It really is twisted.

    2. I think you hit the nail on the head. The mysterious “Satoshi” cut from the same cloth as the mysterious Q.

      1. I recall a bunch of articles about someone actually tracking down a Satoshi nakamoto, who supposedly said he helped develop this technology, but it was handed over to govt intelligence a long time ago.

  5. For those following my two recommended trades from the past week or so, I sold out of 75% of my DFLYF just now up between 1.90-2.18. I also sold out of 75% of my OEG with this last run up to 4.95.

    I still like both very much, but we need to take our profits short term. I need to pay my bills.

  6. OEG, our other call, is playing catch up to SUNW SOL ISUN….

    PLEASE NOTE THAT I STARTED MY COMMENTS SECTION, BECAUSE I WAS RECEIVING TONS OF EMAILS AND RESPONDING TO ALL OF THEM INDIVIDUALLY, WHICH WAS TOO TIME CONSUMING. 75% OF THEM WERE ASKING FOR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND SO BY ANSWERING ON THE COMMENTS BOARD I CAN DISPENSE TO A WIDER AUDIENCE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

    I HAVE TO MAKE MONEY LIKE EVERYONE ELSE. I TRADE AND SPECULATE AND LIVE OFF RENTAL INCOME TO SURVIVE. I RELY ONLY ON MY WITS AND KNOWLEDGE. WHILE I CAN SEND EMAILS OUT ONE AT A TIME, I PREFER TO DISCUSS THESE MONEY TOPICS ON MY BOARDS. SINCE I NO LONGER SHOW UP ON THE SEARCH ENGINES (DON’T ASK WHY), I HAVE A VERY LIMITED AUDIENCE. ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED INDIVIDUALS A DAY SHOW UP. PEOPLE WOULD PAY A LOT OF MONEY FOR MY ADVICE, BUT I GIVE IT OUT FREELY TO ANYONE WHO SEEKS IT.

      1. EMAN has been rocking and rolling. I’ve held it for the last six months. Is it time to take profits in this market? Seems like it. I am not an active trader I don’t have the time right now to actively manage at this point in my life. Not sure what is the appropriate vehicle to sidline some dough in our 401k would be. Would be interested in your thoughts.
        Warmest regards,
        Dean.

        1. I always scale out of a position. Thus, as prices move up, I lighten up. I give you credit for holding this long and am glad your experience is so far favorable. I would peel off 40-50% at any price here or higher. If we get a correction, these small issuers get destroyed, and I think we are here on borrowed time with this market (not that a correction is coming immediately). EMAN has some appealing technology, and hope it gets used by big tech. KOPN and MVIS are it peers for reference.

          Everything is flying, and I have seen these cycles 8-9 times in my career. The losers are the ones who fail to recognize a change of direction and become the bagholders. We make money here and when things turn down we are on the sidelines with these small stocks. Good move to be patient though. Sell some (half?), and keep an eye on the small caps in these EV, 5G/clean energy sectors, as well as EMANs peers for a better picture.

  7. Our calls on DFLYF are looking good here. Breaking out of all resistance and the upside could be auspicious. Still long here!

  8. This is why I like real estate over gold and crypto. Plowing USD into real estate seems like a safer plan to me. At the end of the day , I have rental income. I realize there are risks there as well but hopefully you offset by your location , not overpaying for the RE and not be over leveraged.

    1. Agreed… While gold (cryptos, too) always has a place in my portfolio, I prefer real estate for the income, leveragability, and tax benefits it enjoys. RE rentals is like running a business without the headache of dealing with unwashed customers.

      1. What about unwashed renters who refuse to make rent? Looks like Biden all the way down to your local Government are sympathetic to squatters. Then there is the churning agitation against property rights; will we all be caught trying to dump our commercial properties at the same time? Does this figure into your future scenarios?

        1. For years, I have only recommended working class residential rentals (at market median or below) in the inner suburbs. Not rural or urban. If the tenants are screened well, the landlord’s risk is limited. We do not invest in commercial properties, either rural or urban. No exceptions. Never did and never will. The economy is a scam and we will all work from our safe areas. Our homes. I also recommend unimproved farm and ranch land.

          We have been weighing in expropriation risk and have discussed this at length a few months ago. It is a factor, and I mentioned that I would no longer buy in racially sensitive areas. I would also begin to weed out of these properties and buy more expensive ones and own fewer over time.

          Of course, the covid is the latest excuse for the alternative media to reaffirm their confirmation biases. I have had not one tenant cause problems. Besides, I can still wreck their credit in the process. My portfolio is up 20% YoY. Most people in the business have similar price gains.

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