4/4/2020 Weekend Update – Finding investment opportunities during times of economic and societal transformation

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-Those who can interpret the logical structure of this monetary and financial system will be able to continually spot the most profitable investment opportunities, while avoiding the typical traps of the alt-financial media. The controlled alt-media have been proclaiming collapse since I started reading the genre in 2002.

Spotting investment opportunity depends on how we interpret reality

-All the nation-states are gradually moving to a system of centrally planned economies, run by the owners of the central banks.
-I often get asked how the owners of the private central banks gain control via QE. The more assets on the central bank balance sheets, the more this hidden cartel can control the economic spigots and the greater a stranglehold they can place on all economic sectors and governments.
-I estimate the Fed’s balance sheet will grow to about $10 trillion over the next 9 months and its owners will have fully turned all the nation-state governments into their golem.
Golem –  1: an artificial human being in Hebrew folklore endowed with life, 2: something or someone resembling a golem: such as
Profitable sectors over the next several years; The firms that benefit from war preparation spending and engineering. I also see the track-and-trace technology firms prospering. As global trade collapses and the U.S. effectively transforms into second-world status, many industries will exploit the collapsing U.S. cost structure to bring production back to the homeland. Most of the 20,000,000 who will be permanently unemployed will staff the growing domestic slave-labor supply chain.
-Patriot Acts discussed and how the formulation of the Patriot Acts and DHS included input from people like the former East German Stasi head, Markus Wolf. Many of the unemployed will find gainful employment tattling out on their fellow citizens and neighbors.
-Rental real estate will get hit hard as it’s estimated that 35% of all condo owners in the major cities experience negative cash flow. Many of these overstretched and naive landlords who invested later in the cycle, and those who thought Airbnb was a great and easy way to invest, will get hit hard. This is where we can exploit the asset value destruction over the next couple years.
Shale oil has a very viable future. The large multinationals will essentially control the entire industry once the smaller independent drillers go bankrupt. Once global supply shrinks to meet the drop in demand, prices will rise again. As we predicted, Sam Zell was wrong.
Storing cash: I wouldn’t be overly worried about keeping money in the bank. Most people look down on cash with contempt and don’t use it. The average person has been brainwashed by shows like Breaking Bad and conflate cash with drugs and crime, not freedom from an oppressive government. Now, most conflate it with the coronavirus. If the Fed can conjure up $557 billion in one week, I think it’s safe to assume it and the U.S. Treasury can fill the banks with the needed cash in any (imaginary) bank run.

The Federal Reserve asset purchases in focus; As much as $90 billion a day

I wanted to pass along the data on the most recent Federal Reserve asset purchases, which totaled  $557 billion last week ended Wednesday. The balance sheet now stands at $5.81 trillion.

Here are the most recent purchase schedules from the New York Fed’s website. All the Treasury purchases will be coupon securities and will be slanted to the longer end.

Treasury Securities Operational Details

Tentative Schedule of FedTrade Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Operations for the period from March 30, 2020 to April 3, 2020.

As we can see from the above schedules, The Fed will purchase a staggering $90 billion in assets today. Thus, it’s balance sheet will climb to $5.9 trillion by day close. It will buy $60 billion in Treasuries and $30 billion in Agency mortgage debt.

It is difficult for market bears to overcome this huge wave of asset purchases, and while the average person on the street will not benefit (asset prices will rise over the long-term, regardless of economic circumstances), we need to note that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the markets moving north.

Because of these asset purchases, the markets initially responded well to the dire employment numbers that crossed the tape at 8:30AM. The worse the numbers, the more assets that will be bought.

Response to emails: What happens to the United States if the Coronavirus crisis persists?

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-A review of the U.S. Army’s Civilian Inmate Labor Facility Program. This program was discussed for expansion during the 2008 crisis and a modified form could provide millions of jobs for the ~20,000,000 that may never again find gainful employment.
-In a post-economically collapsed environment, these labor facilities could produce much of the items we previously imported. Economic collapses are deflationary in nature and this one would be no different. The U.S. could regain a competitive cost advantage.
-Contrary to the belief of the alt-media, the barbed wire fences of these camps would be turned around to keep people from trying to gain entrance. These CILF workers would have a roof over their heads, three square meals, and medical care provided. They would all be there voluntarily.
-The importance of the Patriot Acts going forward. The brave new world is already here and the unwashed will willingly accept anything now to relieve the pain and fear.
-The narrative is only providing for one outcome, forced vaccinations and ID cards with biometrics to prove one’s loyalty to the greater good. Maybe subdermals for private employees?
-The concept of the CCC from the Great Depression is discussed; a prototype from which to follow
-Donald Trump’s approval ratings have risen as he has spent $2-3 trillion in a reelection year. Perhaps if he was elected for a second term, he may decide to just roll it all up and let things collapse. Incumbents who are not allowed to run for office again may make the least popular choices. Maybe a Hillary victory would prolong the largess.
-On many levels, Trump has been a valuable asset to the globalists, and they may want him to either serve a second term or may just delay the election
-If this crisis persists until the fall, the elites may just keep it going during the winter months. Perhaps they may introduce more strains to demoralize the already demoralized masses.
-The news narrative keeps getting worse. The housing market looks to be blown to oblivion.
Continuity of Government in a post-economically collapsed environment.

4/1/2020 Market Update – Bear flags and broken mva’s; Coronavirus narratives and corporate consolidation

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(11:15AM, 12:50 duration)

-S&P futures forming a weekly bear flag and cannot get above the weekly and monthly moving averages
-Market action in commodities this week is indicating another down-leg in stocks.
-The only index holding up is the Nasdaq 100. Technology will play an important part in the NWO’s next phase
-The news feed and narrative are still the same as before, but there is more commentary from the so-called experts. Here is an opinion piece from Bill Gates, who is laying the groundwork for our future.
-Massive corporate consolidation seen in the major industries, especially in the domestic oil and retail sectors. In this instance, independent shale oil producers are angry that the majors are not seeking government assistance in international matters.
-Dollar still showing strength and is hampering market recovery. Bond yields still falling and is an encouraging sign that the massive consolidation wave is about to hit.

-Rental real estate will get hit hard here, and those who are over-levered will lose most of their equity. Those who do not have much debt and can collect their rents will benefit in the long run.