4/20/20 Market Update – Stocks, gold, commodities, oil futures chaos and USO, REITs and real estate all in focus; Answers to emails with advice

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here (Time 10PM 4/19, duration; 33:14)

Stocks; S&P 500 eminis touch 100-week mva, as predicted. It has been unable to take it out the first time around, as predicted. Momentum plays have shown life and some are making new highs (e.g. AMZN, EQIX, NFLX).
Oil; As of April. 16, USO held 148,264 June 2020 WTI crude oil NYMEX contracts—or roughly 28% of the total open interest for that contract. Traders front run and sell the roll over contract, because of the $6-7 contango premium. They also sell USO. The futures price falls towards spot as it get closer to expiration and USO/UCO shareholders always get hit.
Gold faces problems in the short term. Last Thursday’s unemployment data was gold bearish and it has been falling since. Some traders are booking profits as open interest and spec longs both drop.
Fed announces this week’s QE purchases; More gold bearish news; The Federal Reserve announced this week’s purchase schedule and it has fallen some more, which may be alerting some short term gold bulls to pair back. The Fed is scheduled to purchase about $15 billion of USTs and about $10 billion of MBS a day. This marks a sharp drop from about $75 billion a couple weeks ago.
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Securities Operations | 4/20/2020 – 4/24/2020
Tentative Schedule of FedTrade Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Operations for the period from April 20, 2020 to April 24, 2020
Real estate; I have never recommended commercial and retail REITs. One REIT holding up very well (SRVR) is taking advantage of the secular economic shift.
Commodities; The world may be starving, but that doesn’t mean we buy foodstuff futures or their tracking stocks. Prices to the producers continue to remain subdued. The problems lie elsewhere and there are difficulties for investors trying to profit from this dynamic.
-Answers to a number of emails, including the angry ones who responded to my earlier article. Advice for those just starting out.

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