Month: March 2020

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-A discussion of today’s important S&P 500 futures market action; just look at the major monthly moving averages.

-The Fed will do the heavy lifting as long as the USDX remains above 96-97. It is currently resting at about 99, despite all the domestic QE.
-MSM and alt-media reporting are encouraging greater Fed QE numbers. These trillions must find a home. It’s just a matter of time until they end up in the asset markets. Imagine the DCF calculations with a 0% risk-free rate (10-year UST).
-The commercial and high yield debt markets show resilience and have come back to life, now that the Fed will backstop the markets. This is perhaps what the equities are keying in on.
-US Treasuries still offer the best relative value with their elevated yields. However, their yield advantages have dropped tremendously vis-a-vis other prime credit nation-state debt, as the Fed is unleashing about $4 trillion in permanent QE, as well as formulating long-term commercial and asset-backed lending programs. This is on top of the $2.2. trillion in fiscal stimulus.
-The system is functioning exactly as we have theorized for years.
-One thought here. The PTB may not wish to see Trump leave office, but used this manufactured crisis to force his hand to unleash this spending during an election year. If Trump were not running for reelection, there would have been a high probability he would have minimized this crisis.
-Mortgage rates keep dropping now that the Fed has already bought over $200 billion in mortgages. QE and fiscal stimulus will further impoverish the 30 million recently unemployed; many who will lose their homes and will become renters, causing rents to rise.

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-It doesn’t matter whether this crisis is legitimate or not. This manufactured pandemic has the potential for formulating the largest transfer of wealth in human history. A discussion of how we can successfully navigate these waters. This isn’t a bailout, because that would imply moral hazard behavior at the top. This is a well orchestrated plan.
-I am observing that there has not been any let up in the media’s fear campaign. This tells me that the elites intend to maximize their asset grab. Perhaps we may see even more manufactured horror.
-There is a complete lockdown on the crisis narrative. Fox fires Trish Regan for minimizing the circumstances. There is a total blackout regarding the objective discussion of effective treatments and cures. The elites want to maximize this story line and political correctness rules.
-Many of the +30 million unemployed will never find gainful employment after the crisis concludes.
-Prices of the stocks of the companies that benefit from this crisis are holding up very well and some have even risen nicely. There is a lot of liquidity waiting to be deployed. Once the elites consolidate enough wealth, they will release the tension.

-Only a demoralized society can fall victim to these wealth transfer schemes. My concern is that the elites have seen how soft we have become and may try to increase the pandemic scares in the future. They seem to be effective.
-Permanent Fed assets up $1.5 trillion since the manufactured repo crisis. Fed assets now at $5.3 trillion
-The $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus is longer-term deflationary as the offsetting debt financing needs to be serviced. As the world is less able to service the total debt outstanding, the global economy sinks in a sea of deflationary red ink. Bond yields fall further and the monetary system is strengthened.
-I agree with Bernanke, Yellen and Powell; the Fed has plenty more fire power and can buy up so much more.
-Those who were under-levered going in to the downturn will be the most able to exploit the upcoming opportunities. The timeline is occurring so much faster than in 2008-09, because all the needed programs are already on the books.
-It is becoming increasingly clear that btc will not play a major role in the future of the global currency markets, though the libertarians who are anti-dollar and built the blockchain technology have served a useful role for the elites. I see digital dollars and other currencies. Services like Zelle are much better at transferring cash than btc and other alt-coins.
-Trends to stay; loss of freedoms, the demise of habeas corpus, indefinite detentions, the elimination of cash, though the USD will be the last one to go that route.
-Private real estate lenders pulling back entirely, leaving investors high and dry

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-The Fed has acted swiftly since my last podcast on Sunday. Since Monday morning, the Fed slashed rates by 100 bps to effective 0%, announced unlimited Treasury and agency mortgage purchases, and become primary lender and liquidity provider to corporations.
-The Fed balance sheet should hit $6 trillion over the next few weeks. Given the upcoming $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package, the Fed balance sheet could hit $10 trillion by the end of the year.
-The Fed announced they may begin to buy bond ETFs to stabilize bond markets and yields going forward.
-The central planners knew the USDX was rising too high and announced that the Fed would act first with their monetary programs. While these Fed initiatives are dollar bearish, the USDX continues to remain elevated. The ECB and BOJ remain relatively taciturn, but also need to act more forcefully than currently.
-As long as bond yields fall and inflation growth sinks, the Fed could theoretically buy every asset available.
-Bernanke making a case for Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act to be changed to include corporate securities and state and local debt.
-Keep in mind that 30-year mortgage rates could hit 2.5% by end of year. Those who are hoping for a residential real estate collapse may be disappointed.
-I would have to believe that stocks may be subject to official intervention here.

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-The success of the NWO in carrying out these manufactured crises have been only made possible since the late 1990s, when the FCC rewrote media ownership rules.
-My observations of the militarized news flow, and how to interpret the narrative. We need to clear away all the political correctness as well. There will never be any legitimate talk that the coronavirus may be engineered or that it affects some races more than others. No viable solutions have yet to be discussed.
-I doubt the elites want a “collapse,” but we need to comprehend and observe the well-coordinated time line to determine when opportunities exist.
-For those who held stocks through the downturn, we should continue holding, but keep in mind what sectors will be best positioned for the future narrative.
-Most of the damage is done, but there is a slightly less than 50% chance we could see another 25% downside from current SPX levels or 18% based on SPX high of 3,350. (<1700 SPX – 200-month MVA)
-I am not recommending new purchases of stocks right now, because I have to believe that since events unfolded so quickly, latent and current problems will emerge over time. Many investors are still in denial and have been contemplating a V- or U-shaped recovery; similar to the mindset that existed as the Nasdaq was crashing in 2000.
-There will be opportunities to buy stocks. I discuss what I am looking for when determining buying points. What sectors offer the most upside and where I intend to buy.
-My dad died 12 years ago. He grew up during the Great Depression and fought in WWII. The people back then were more resilient than those of today. They were not running around talking of a rapture to carry them away from harm and adversity.

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-As a long time student of consumer and investor behavior/psychology, I offer a number of observations and predictions over the short- and long-term.
-I answer the many emails I received over the past 24-36 hours. Today’s markets ended on the worst note possible. The markets are setting up for something ominous next week. I normally do not go into the weekend with open futures positions, but I went long a couple gold contracts as the price rose towards the end of Globex trading.
-Keep in mind that the NWO elites are controlling the narrative and wish to see this. They have their media on lockdown with one calamitous story after another. Don’t ever think that many of the alt-media outlets are not influenced by these elites. The pressure seems to be unrelenting and we need to accept this reality.
-The few investments I recommend over this unfolding timeline.
-I observe the behavior of the mainstream media and how it has converged with the alt-media for the first time in at least a decade. The fear is being generated from a central locus. The fear is the object we need to analyze. The virus is a relative scam.

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-The importance of tracking the value of the USDX over the longer term. A 25-year analysis of the USDX and its role in the fluctuations of the asset markets.
-These market movements make sense, given the crisis and the globalist media’s role in causing the panic. The dollar is behaving as expected in light of this unprecedented volatility. All the major markets are behaving as expected.
-The future timeline of this manufactured crisis depends on how the globalist-controlled media (and the fear-mongering alt-media) respond. Do they release the tension to reduce the panic? Do they continue to scare with a full-court press?
-In the post 2008 system, bonds, currencies, and commodities are behaving as we theorized they would.
-The optimal values of the USDX and what happens when it deviates from that sweet spot.
-The Fed may have to address the rising USDX by flooding the globe with negative-yielding dollars.

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-The elites infiltrate the alt-financial media with their change agents to make antithetical recommendations, so that those who are planning for collapse still lose money.
-Anyone telling you that the latest bailouts are hyperinflationary is either unqualified or a change agent.
-Sovereign bond yields have risen over the past few days, because traders know many trillions in spending and stimulus are coming.
-Trillions in elite bailouts and the dollar is still rising. Collapse from USDX strength?
-Will the Fed have to go to negative short-term rates to stem the strength of the dollar?
-The collapse preppers were only correct about the stock market. They were wrong on the dollar, bonds, commodities, silver, peak oil, and bitcoin. Even gold has not been stellar, but has only held its own.
-Once again, Malthus has been proven wrong.
-I warned the alt-financial preppers who were preparing for dollar weakness and rising bond yields that they were getting it wrong. Only three months ago, the alt-media were proclaiming $100 Brent crude after the Saudi drone attacks. Now they are claiming oil may go negative.
-Silver has gotten crushed. Wow…. so sad.
-We theorized that a collapse would come from dollar strength. It may be lights out, unless the Fed can add trillions more in bailouts and go negative on the rates.
-I take no money and offer no services, because of the potential for conflict of interest. Those selling survival gear and supplements will tell their followers that this pandemic is real and that millions will die.
-The fear is now the reality. The pandemic is most likely hot air.

5:20 UPDATE: FED DROPS RATES TO ZERO, ANNOUNCES $700 Billion QE and OPENS GLOBAL SWAP LINES. Since recording and posting my podcast, the Fed acted.

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-The Fed needs to act fast as this coronavirus crisis has a time limit. The Fed may announce actions prior to Wednesday’s FOMC statement. The Bank of Canada has cut 50bps. The Bank of New Zealand just cut 75 bps. The Fed will most likely cut another 50 bps. That is okay as long as QE initiatives are discussed.
-The Fed has expanded QE to $80 billion a month. I expect the Fed will have to increase this to $100-120 billion, with a possible upfront balloon.
-If the Fed pushes back on the whole QE concept on Wednesday, we need to sell everything
-There are many tools available to the Fed and US Treasury to enhance market functions.
–TALF
–TARP
-Enhanced QE
-Enhanced purchases of government-sponsored mortgages
-Purchases of equities and corporate securities (modify Section 14 of Federal Reserve Act)
-I have been encouraged that the USDX has held up here. A strong dollar is better than a weak dollar under these circumstances
-The Trump regime can backstop its SBA initiative via the TALF program
-The problems in the mortgage market rest more with the processing logjam than with lack of investor interest in the MBS market.
-The Fed’s are consuming too much of the world’s credit availability. Thus a stepped-up QE program will alleviate most problems in the Commercial Paper, Mortgage, and Repo markets.

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-An analysis of some of my recent observations
-How long will it take before enough investors catch on to the hype?
-The plunge protection team knows how to gauge the markets via internet sentiment and real-time social media data analysis. They bide their time and pounce for maximum effect.
-Are we being had here? Are we unwittingly being victimized by the central banking cartel of owners into accepting ever-falling interest rates and punishing austerity in return for safety?

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here (Duration 19:55, 9:00 PM, gold 1,580)

-This current crisis is different than 2008. The 2008 crisis paved the way for Obama to be elected, but this current crisis does not necessarily make Trump look bad. The Democrats are promoting unacceptable candidates and Trump can come out of this looking good. It depends on his future actions.
-The alt-finance bears betting on a monetary system and dollar collapse have lost big here.
-Bitcoin undergoing unprecedented liquidation as I write
-The dollar holding up as yields collapse. The dynamics behind this post-2008 system are much different than the prior system.
-Commodities and silver & platinum are tickets to poverty
-Major technical damage to stocks. Bears do need to beware of breakthrough coronavirus treatments or vaccines
-A big warning for those trading gold long. Beware of forced liquidation
-This post-2008 system is ready and able to handle the upcoming trillions in emergency fiscal spending.
-High end real estate will get hit here. Working class housing with good numbers will hold up fine.