Here is a sobering observation; many of the alt-financial forecasters who claimed they were correct in predicting 2008’s collapse had been predicting one all last decade. Moreover, virtually all of them have been calling for another one ever since.
My conclusion; those forecasters who employ basic logic fallacies and refuse to acknowledge the conspiracy for a global financial dictatorship must be heavily discounted. The reasons why my research has been more accurate than most others are five-fold;
- I have formal economic and financial training that goes back to 1985,
- I am extremely careful to avoid employing logic fallacies (e.g arguing from incredulity, gambler’s fallacy, ad hominems, and subjective sentiment),
- I am politically agnostic,
- I acknowledge the active promotion of the conspiracy for a global financial dictatorship, according to the Bible, and as a result,
- I have to conclude that the elites are in control of their own system and all the confusion and tension is manufactured, so that the desired result (e.g. QE and centralized control) can be achieved.
After canvassing the wreckage of last decade’s carnage and parsing the analysis of those who ostensibly claimed to be right, I was disappointed to see that most were stopped clocks who had based their conclusions on logic flaws such as the argument from incredulity. Unfortunately, just because we cannot imagine how all this debt can be serviced doesn’t mean things have to collapse.
Indeed, before last decade’s manufactured crisis, the central banking mechanisms were not in place to handle nation-state overindebtedness. But since 2008, a whole new paradigm has successfully emerged with respect to the handling of the ballooning deficit spending. However, the alt-financial media refuse to recognize this reality, and have been employing the same flawed logic all decade to predict another collapse.
Any long-term reader and listener of my work knows that I have been relaying these conclusions going back to early 2013, when I determined that this new system from late 2008 onward was viable, durable, and one that the global investor had accepted as legitimate.
Given these thoughts, I present a subscriber’s comments to my previous article;
[With respect to another alt-financial market forecaster] I felt that I did benefit from the website I subscribed to by listening to them before the market crashed, but it seems like since then the predictions have been wrong. I also noticed that the writers are now very conservative in making any recommendations whereas up until before they were more confident. Sort of a broken clock is right twice a day syndrome.
The writers now admit they don’t know what’s going on.
When I was asking about a blog post dealing with alt-financial media issues, I was essentially asking if you already detailed the flaws of the advice/predictions from the alt-financial media. However, your advice of studying is duly noted and I have started that self study over the last few years! I guess when I was saying if I had your insight, I meant your knowledge. I prefer to know things for myself as much as feasible.
While the website and specific writer I did subscribe to was educated from a very good university, their degree was not in finance or economics(although they are good at math). I made some money on gold, but that’s about it.
Where would be a good place to start educating one’s self in logic? I took an introductory course in college. Since then, not much else….
Okay, although I think I addressed most of this subscriber’s concerns in this article’s preface, I do have some final thoughts regarding the need to build upon our abilities to think logically. Specifically, we need to develop a grasp of the logic process necessary to help formulate investment strategies and make life choices. I would also say we need to continually develop our logic “sniffers,” so that we can recognize when a person’s argument is logically flawed, psychologically manipulative, and disingenuous.
“CRITICAL THINKING IS a desire to seek, patience to doubt, fondness to meditate, slowness to assert, readiness to consider, carefulness to dispose and set in order; and hatred for every kind of imposture.” – Francis Bacon (1605)
Too many people are taken advantage of because of their lack of critical thinking, logic and deductive reasoning. These same people are raising children without these same skills, creating a whole new generation of clueless people. Since we live in a post-absolute truth world, it is more incumbent than ever to recognize how we are being duped. Whether it’s from government, our employers, customers, or alt-financial market forecasters, we need to determine if simple presuppositions and conclusions are proper and follow a logical path.
However, valid logic does not always guarantee truth or a sound argument. This is where it gets a little dicey. Valid logic is when the structure of logic is correct in the way of syntax and semantics rather than truth. Truth comes from deductive reasoning of said logic.
Successfully investing using rational discourse and logic
If I were to start out learning logical thought, I would begin with comprehending the syntax basics. Thus, I would seek books that explained the basic logic concepts and definitions as well as illustrated the common forms of logic fallacies.
Perhaps, I would take a look at these books below.
There are many more similar books available to buy on Amazon, and a lot of this subject matter also can be found piecemeal on the internet. Since I am a remnant Christian, I often contemplate the many airtight logical arguments contained in the New Testament, and would recommend all Christians to read the New Testament in light of its discourse in logic and to how to avoid becoming a dupe.
Our process and transformation into becoming a master of logical thought doesn’t take place overnight. The best part of this is that we can all benefit with just a little training. For example, the more we know about how to spot the common logic fallacies, the less likely we will fall victim to disingenuous arguments. Since the vast majority of humanity have lost their ability to argue and reason deductively and inductively, they are easily parted with their money. Anyone who cannot contemplate logically will make poor life choices and will easily fall prey to modern marketers.