-Tame inflation data and positive Fed spin are supporting all asset markets. Strong dollar helping to keep import prices moving lower.
-The dollar looks firm, considering the massive monetary stimulus. What will happen when the ECB needs to crank it up? This isn’t monetary printing in the true sense, as the offsetting debt needs to be serviced, and the debt slaves who do not own income-generating assets are servicing it all.
-My theorized short-term pullback never materialized as stocks move higher and bond yields stay below 1.95% support (for bond prices).
-Gold looking anemic and cannot get legs. Let’s see the data this weekend. The markets and Fed dispelling catastrophe concerns keep it under lock and key.
-Housing still strong. Look at the Amazon effect in Northern VA. Arlington County list prices up 33% since the Amazon announcement. The entire DC area market is on fire. (I have a number of DC-area subscribers). I always said that DC real estate was a relative bargain and now the prices have begun to reflect that reality.
–Wealthier investors are big into cash, since they are worried about market catastrophe. They must be listening to the alt-financial media about a stock crash. As long as this is the case, I will take the contra.
–The Fed comes out with their Financial Stability Report and they think things are just fine.
Do you think Walter “John” Williams of Shadow Government Statistics is lying to us about the economy?
The government’s conflict of interest with economic data
For obvious reasons, the government wants to publish low inflation numbers, high employment participation, and elevated economic growth, and if the nation can’t achieve these lofty expectations in reality, the Feds can at least pretend.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is tied to the incomes of about 85 million Americans who depend on Social Security, food stamps, housing vouchers, military and federal Civil Service pensions, etc. The higher the CPI, the more money the government needs to spend to keep pace with the cost of living. Thus, the Feds have a strong desire to under-report. Moreover, since 2008, a lower CPI means less exertion is needed by the Fed when managing the yield curve.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases CPI data, operates under a veil of secrecy. The raw data used to calculate the CPI is not available to the public, so it makes it impossible to audit their findings. Additionally, over the past 40 years, the government has changed the way it calculates inflation more than 20 times. The BLS claims that these ‘methodological improvements’ to the CPI are said to give a more accurate measure of consumer prices. However, these changes could also be a convenient way to include or exclude certain products that give favorably low results.
The CPI doesn’t even meet the government’s definition of inflation. The BLS defines inflation “as a process of continuously rising prices or equivalently, of a continuously falling value of money.” The CPI is not a measurement of rising prices, rather it tracks consumer spending patterns that change as prices change. The CPI doesn’t even touch the falling value of money. If it did the CPI would look much different.
With respect to real (not nominal) GDP growth, if we experience lower levels of reported inflation, published real economic growth data will be higher. If the inflation data come in higher, this will naturally show that real GDP growth will be lower.
So, my readers already know that most of the officially published economic, employment, and price data do not paint an accurate picture of reality. With respect to Shadow Stats, I think it does a fine job measuring these alternative government data points in light of this reality. I do not question the results of its data gathering. According to its website, “John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.”
That may sound noble, but my real concern with Shadow Stats lies with their assessments of economic conditions and financial markets after their data is gathered. Their predictive accuracy has been seriously wanting.
Those who cannot grasp the conspiracy need to be heavily discounted
Here is a sobering question to ask about Shadow Stats; In a centrally managed economy does all this analysis really matter anymore?
I am familiar with the work of John Williams from his interviews and commentary from the second half of last decade. During the time when gold rose from about $600 to $1,800, I took what he said seriously, and his bio on the Shadow Stats web site demonstrates his impressive background. I don’t question his credentials.
What I heavily discount is his ostensible inability to recognize the larger picture. While Mr. Williams’ analysis will certainly portray the economic data in a more accurate light, I have disagreed with his opinions and take on this data since early in the decade.
Take a look at his October 21st flash update from his website. It could be an edit from any other alt-financial commentary.
• Dangerous Times for the U.S. Dollar; Intensifying Flight to Precious Metals Likely
• Domestic Systemic Liquidity Issues Appear Serious: Third-Quarter 2019 Velocity of Money (M3) Is on Track for Its Sharpest Quarterly Drop Since the Depths of the Great Recession
• Liquidity Crisis Intensifies, Reflecting Deepening Financial-System Instabilities
• Used by Some at the Fed to Minimize FOMC Accommodation, Overly Optimistic Economic Assumptions Are Falling Apart
• Latest Headline Reporting, Revisions and Corrective Benchmarkings Increasingly Put the Lie to Current Federal Reserve Presumptions of Stable and Positive Economic Growth
• A Deepening Economic Downturn and Flummoxed Fed Suggest Intensified FOMC Accommodation at the October 29/30 Meeting, Reflected Partially in the October 11th Inter-Meeting Liquidity-Infusion Program
So, to answer your question, is John Williams lying to us about the economy? No, I doubt that Mr. Williams is lying. I believe he truly believes what he says. But that does not mean I should rely on his advice and opinions. I believe that Mr. Williams’ data analysis is much more accurate of reality, but so what? We are in the new world order and fact is fiction. The economy is managed in a similar fashion to that of a communist country; it only has the veneer of a free-market economy.
We can’t hold our breath waiting for a reversion and an exposure of the truth. People like the lie and you and I are few indeed. We need to move forward and adjust.
-For some listeners, I may have you drinking out of a firehouse on this one. -Don’t look at the dire wealth disparity reports and conclude that things have to fall apart. This growing wealth divide is being intentionally manufactured. We need to plan to not be left behind.
-A preface: Recall the Saudi drone attacks on September 14th… Anyone buying oil and gold and shorting stocks off that news was punished. The traders who made the money shorted oil and gold overnight and bought stocks off the low. Always fight the primal urges and the calls from the alt-media.
-US bonds put into focus. What is going on with the 10-year? Some technical analysis. No worries in a managed market.
-The SPX and Europe Stoxx 600 analyzed. Guess where they are going? I do see some particular counter trend opportunities short-term domestically. Global stocks have been on fire all year. They know where the world is going. So do we.
-The USD is creeping back up again. Not a good sign for those at the Fed who were hoping for a bigger drop. What will happen when Lagarde begins to dance to the Draghi tune?
-Why I own gold. We should be less concerned about the economy blowing up and more concerned with our personal lives blowing up.
-Gold had probably the worst week in 3-5 years on a technical basis. GLD tonnage continues to drop and the latest COT report is even more overbought than the prior one. It does not look good and a test of the rising 50-week mva is highly probable over the next couple weeks.
-Commodities in focus. For Americans, trying to take advantage of higher meat prices outside the U.S. is tough and anyone buying pork and hog futures has been beat up. What happened to corn? Getting beat with an ugly stick (as we expected).
-Commentary and observations on the power structure and where the global political power is moving.
I watched an RT clip years ago, where this clown [Max Keiser] said that Canadian real estate was going to plummet 90%. The opposite happened. Another agent from the Deep state to make the masses poorer.
I admit it; at one time I was duped, too. During the early part of last decade when I was new to the “truth/patriot” movement, I found myself following the advice and warnings of people like Max Keiser, Alex Jones, KWN, Steve Quayle, Daily Reckoning, etc.
There was a difference between what these charlatans said back then and what they say now. In 2005, gold really was a great investment and house prices were topping out. I knew this, because I observed the sovereign debt build-up trajectory and wondered how the nation-states would be able to finance further spending. Gold’s price rise reflected this growing concern and I was warning all my friends at the time of impending calamity. I looked like a prophet, and so did the gold shills.
I sold 75% of my rental properties in late 2005, and put it all into U.S. gold and silver eagles, because I determined that the capitalization rates and IRRs on rentals were moving dangerously lower and that, for the first time in modern history, rental income streams had completely detached from property values. So, of course, I listened to those who were proclaiming a real estate collapse. Of course, I heeded the warning of the gold shills. It made sense.
If this monetary hierarchy was coming unglued it also implied that the U.S. dollar was toast. We did observe the USDX tanking into 2008, as confidence was shaken to the core. So far, so good…
By 2011, a growing consensus had figured out what we talk about all the time. The private central banks had created a whole new synthetic set of economic laws. First and foremost, The central bankers discovered a way to keep the governments in business while maintaining the existing global hierarchy.
The central banks could essentially add as much sovereign debt to their balance sheets as needed to keep the governments spending. These stimulus programs would counterintuitively keep interest rates and inflationary growth moving lower over time as the ballooning debt burdens would suck the life force out of the economy and act as a massive deflationary offset. Furthermore, the USD, as the global reserve of this current system, would find structural support.
It’s a scheme that has been running for 11 years and seems to be moving forward as intended. The governments are the customer service windows of the elites and carry out the NWO agenda. For now, their prime directive is to keep the governments in business until some future course of events.
But the alt-financial “gurus” kept professing the same talk from 2005 because 1) they chose not to see the reality, as that would mean lost prepper and book sales business 2) they are really out of their realm with respect to economic matters or 3) are intentionally misleading the alt-media crowd.
I believe it’s a combination of all three. I have been warning others in articles, shortwave shows, and blog posts since early 2013, and my thesis has not changed in almost seven years. Investing based on belief will lead people into poverty. Investing based on observation and reality usually leads to long-term success. Satan is still in charge of this world and we best accept this.
Max Keiser; shilling his agenda while promoting the anti-Western narrative on the controlled opposition media
Max Keiser grew up in Westchester County, New York. After studying theatre at New York University, he took a variety of jobs in stand-up comedy and in radio…. – Wikipedia
What do you think about the rumors of China formulating their own gold backed crypto currency?
They have 20,000 tons of gold to use as backing to issue their new crypto currency – to destroy the US$. A lot of crazy stuff coming from the alt- media.
I did not hear about this until I Googled “gold backed crypto” and “China” and up popped Max Keiser’s name. Indeed, this anti-Western charlatan, who proffers the pro-Russian and China narrative is at it again. This supposed financial expert, who was born in New Rochelle, NY, gets paid handsomely to denigrate the West and his own nationality on RT, Al Jazeera, and Press TV.
Mr. Keiser is heavily promoting bitcoin as the anti-Western answer to the fiat currency regime, but bitcoin was most likely a creation of Western intelligence. Moreover, the private central banks of Russia and China are controlled by the same elite families who own the Western central banks. Despite what the gold shills proclaim, China and Russia want low gold prices as much as the West.
Here is a warning to those die-hard crypto fans who believe anyone pro-crypto. Don’t be fooled by Mr. Keiser’s self-promotion. I stopped listening to him almost 10 years ago, because he was wrong most the time. He will cherry pick his track record and proclaim that you should listen to him, because he told everyone to buy bitcoin at $1. I do recall that he was pumping DASH at $600-800 as well. If you bought DASH at those levels, I bet he sold his DASH to you. He also started a few failed blockchain initiatives that were built with other people’s money. He only recalls his triumphs.
On November 1st, Mr. Keiser was on Kitco.com TV, promoting the notion that China, which he claims owns 20,000 tons of gold, is about to develop and begin promoting a gold-backed cryptocurrency. This new cryptocurrency is designed to force the dollar to go to “zero.”
Okay, let’s break this down…
1) Let’s assume China owns 20,000 tons of gold. Who owns it? Does their privately run central bank, the PBOC, which was modeled after the Western central banks, own it? Does the ChiCom government own it? Do the Chinese citizens own it?
The Chinese and Russian central banks are both private concerns and are owned by the same elite families who own and control the Western central banks. Do you see a pattern here? They spend lavishly to support RT, Al Jazeera, and Press TV. Get the hint? It sounds like a kayfabe wrestling match with hired-hands in the ring while their owners relax in the luxury skybox.
2) The over-indebtedness in China on many levels is even worse than in the West. China’s economic miracle was built upon a shaky foundation of fiat currencies and their economy was designed specifically to be built as quickly as possible before the upcoming global war. Only fiat can accommodate this objective.
So, why would China attempt to destroy the U.S. dollar at this point? ChiCom and the PBOC would only be slicing their own throats. If the USD collapsed to zero (as Keiser says it will) the yuan and ruble would go down as well as all the global debt markets would collapse within weeks.
If China introduced a gold-backed crypto, what’s to say it would really be backed by gold? The ChiCom government that Mr. Keiser supports and rallies around has been known to lie often and has a long history of killing tens of millions of people who disagree with it.
3) Even if China introduced this cryptocurrency, and it was successful in destroying the dollar hegemony, how would it be able to service its internal debt burden once they went to gold-backing? China’s internal economy would collapse within months as there would no longer be enough currency growth to help service its debts.
4) Mr. Keiser somehow places a non-sequitur connection between bitcoin and this new Chinese crypto concept. We are aware that China has essentially forbidden the trading of btc by its citizens, and why is this? The ChiCom government knows what my readers already know; btc was a creation of Western intelligence and not by Satoshi Nakamoto. Thus, promoting bitcoin for the purpose of upending Western fiat money does not make sense.
5) Given this line of logic, wouldn’t it better for our readers to just buy physical gold? If China really owns 20,000 tons of gold, that alone could be enough to destroy the USD. But it hasn’t, because that would mean ChiCom would be guaranteeing a mutually assured destruction. I truly doubt China’s authorities own anything close to that amount and despite what the gold shills proclaim, China and Russia want low gold prices as much as the West.
It sounds like Mr. Keiser is promoting his blockchain agenda, while kissing up to his bosses on the anti-Western media outlets.
Just because someone takes the red pill, doesn’t mean he is full of knowledge. It only signifies that he has found out that the world is full of lies. We then have the burden of spending the rest of our lives trying to discern fact from fiction. Satan has employed a wide array of sell-outs who are there to trip us up.