Government intervention always costs more in the long run
Does rent control work? I see CA [California] and OR [Oregon] pushing these laws into effect. Many cities already have rent control. Does it work?
This is a very good question. It would be logical to assume that controlling the spiraling costs of rent would help out renters, but let’s take a look at the economic ramifications of rent control in the aggregate.
While people who manage to secure a rent-controlled home will benefit substantially in the long run, these policies can cause landlords to make choices that can exacerbate income inequality. A research paper from Stanford University researchers, which was published on National Bureau of Economic Research’s website, nber.org, examined the fallout from a successful 1994 ballot initiative in San Francisco that created rent control protections for small multifamily buildings built before 1980. Here is what the researchers found:
People who lived in homes that became subject to rent control rules were between 10% and 20% more likely to remain at that address, versus people who weren’t in rent-controlled units.
The economic benefit to people living in rent-controlled units averaged between $2,300 and $6,660 per person each year.
Meanwhile, landlords were 10% more likely to convert their building into condos if it became rent controlled. Overall, the rental supply in San Francisco dropped by 6% following the expansion of rent control.
Rents throughout the city increased by 5.1% as a result — the researchers calculated the total cost to tenants from rent hikes to be $2.9 billion, nearly half of which was paid by residents who moved to San Francisco following the establishment of rent control.
The researchers found that rents for apartments that were exempt from rent control policies grew much more substantially as a result.
What does this say? Those who are able to obtain a rent-controlled apartment benefit at the expense of those who could not.
Other research has suggested that rent control policies may actually contribute to a deterioration in the quality of rental housing and may inhibit construction of new rental housing. I lived in Manhattan for 14 years and know first hand that much of the housing stock regulated by rent control was substandard and in poor condition. The tenants were afraid to raise issues to the landlord and the landlord rarely put money into these units.
Of course, we will never win an argument with someone who supports rent control. They are either demagogues and politicians who are trying to appeal to a certain voting demographic or are the renters who are hoping to get a break on their monthly rent payment. Most people like to get something for nothing, and social welfare and spending are based on this premise.
There is no such thing as a free lunch, and if someone is benefiting from rent control, that benefit is coming at someone else’s expense.
Understanding the spiritual aspect to this monetary system is key
You make insightful comments. To you it matters that faith is your guiding light. I enjoy checking in with you but wonder whether in bringing faith to the forefront you’re limiting your audience.
Here was my response (edited for grammar)
Thanks for the email.
Indeed, I don’t expect much traction on the site, since my biblical hermeneutics can put off many. But, if someone is going to take exception, you would think that it would be based on my worldview. The ones who take exception base their contentions on a reprocessing of alt-financial doctrine, which has been largely incorrect.
My gestalt views on the economy and the monetary system are deeply related to my biblical analysis and both seem to be deeply intertwined. I don’t think I can separate them. This agenda goes very deep and my understanding of it relates a lot to scripture.
I look around and observe, and have to conclude that this system is very predictable if we consider what the Bible says. Knowing the Bible and Economics can be profitable, and in a way that we don’t have to market ourselves and step over others.
Satan is not going to come out and say “I am in charge and this is the system that will destroy the many.” People will riot overnight. He entraps the masses by having his adversary [you and I] continually underestimating his grip on power. Both mainstream and alt-media don’t seem to comprehend. [They say they know a lot about the satanic agenda, but disregard the biblical element]. Besides, knowing what I know, I live a life free of worry.
I get it though. I could try to drop the bible stuff and make it more “mainstream” alt-financial, but I guess there is something telling me to do what I do.
Forget Malthus and all his catastrophe hype; global as well as domestic grain production continues to flood the markets. How do we know? Just look at how much of the U.S. corn production is devoted to ethanol production.
As much as 40% of all corn grown in the United States goes into ethanol production, and both the car manufacturers and farmers prefer it this way. By promoting gasoline/ethanol blends (as much as 15% of volume) the Feds are conciliating the farmers, while appealing to the wishes of car manufacturers. Since ethanol is corrosive to car engines and shortens their lifespans, car manufacturers will always support ethanol production.
Domestic Soybean output drops slightly, but global output is flat
Biodiesel makes up 25 percent of soybean oil used in the U.S. Biodiesel is a renewable substitute for petroleum diesel made from soybean oil. The fuel reduces greenhouse gas emissions, increases energy efficiency and provides a 15 percent price support for soybeans.
Despite the sound and fury of this past Spring’s weather-related planting problems, soy production remained fairly consistent on a global basis.
This is just a friendly reminder to those who are banking on higher grains prices over the shorter-term. The supply continues to climb as interest rates fall and growing technology advances. The developing nations are also becoming more important players and their planting costs and overhead are usually much lower than in the U.S., Canada, and E.U.
If the governments weren’t trying to support the corn and soy markets via fuel production, prices would be even lower. Despite a growing global population, prices cannot seem to get any momentum.
-As expected, bond yields resume their downward trend. Despite the ECB talk of higher fiscal spending, bonds yields have, once again, begun to fall.
-The only thing that will collapse this system is higher than expected inflation. That’s it. The central banks can work monetary policy to go fully negative for years. Income-generating assets will continue rising in price.
-The student loan debt situation is not a debacle. It was carefully planned to keep the younger generations in debt slavery, so they didn’t cause higher inflation as monetary printing went parabolic. It’s impossible to create inflationary spikes when the world is servicing its debts. STAY OUT OF ALL DEBT THAT DOES NOT GENERATE OFFSETTING INCOME.
-If your views are as peculiar as mine, nobody will hire you to any gainful employment. You better figure out how to be financially successful in this system.
-Although my predictive accuracy is much higher than anyone else in the alt-financial media, the negative comments I receive are about 4x as much as the positive ones. People do not want to hear what I say.
-Listeners of the alt-financial media have an easy excuse to not work for the future. Why bother if things will fall apart? I am taking out another commercial line to pay off higher yielding ones and to buy another cash flow generating property.
-I don’t write for other websites anymore, because I am directed to write stuff with which I don’t subscribe. Moreover, the site editors heavily edit my work, because their readers won’t agree with it.
-I have never been offered an interview opportunity in the many years of my writing. Talk show hosts are disingenuous, because they have things to sell. Truth is always secondary; never forget that.
–Here is a guy with many times more subscribers than I discussing where bond yields are going when the US 10-year touched 1.9%. Of course, he was completely wrong.
-I have been correct, because I know who is in control. If you are in your 20-40’s and believe the alt-financial narrative, I strongly suggest you redirect your mindset. When you are my age and older, you will no longer have the stamina to begin building something. The alt-media keep us from planning for the future.
-I see what has happened to those my age and older who bought into the Bill Cooper and ZeroHedge collapse stuff going back 10-30 years. They are on disability, broke, and asking others for help. They didn’t build anything. They traded the wrong way and invested in the worst performers.
Trading and investing in commodities are two different things
Note: I do not endorse any trading service or blogger, including the ones listed in this article. I apologize for not being more active on the blog.
Yesterday morning I opend a small long position on corn because i knew… the USDA report would be bullish. As expected by several insiders, climate cooling trend at least in Canada and northern US will be negative to crops.
I know you don’t believe in doomers like Michael Snyder, but do you think that are now material facts you can’t ignore ?
Three factors adversely affecting commodity prices
The dynamics of the globalized commodity markets suppress price inflation similar to the globalized markets for manufactured goods.
As interest rates drop over the longer term and a firm’s cost of capital declines, production and supply will rise as the marginal costs of production fall.
A strong US dollar has been knocking the knees out of any bullish situation.
The reason why I have not been bullish on commodities for many years now is fairly straightforward. These commodity markets are fully globalized and any deficiency in corn production in one nation can be made up by the other nations. Moreover, many of the lower-cost nations have been ramping up production as the larger multinational firms work to keep the prices of their input factors low. Since the price we see on the screen is the marginal price, I see it difficult for prices to rise on a sustained basis, unless we see a change in the fundamentals.
Over the long-term, commodity inflation roughly mirrors the general rate of CPI, which is much lower than monetary inflation. I notice that over the very long-term, gold is the only commodity that mirrors money growth, which is why I usually only recommend gold as a long-term hold.
Let’s analyze what we observed earlier this year. Although we saw crop-bullish weather and climate data coming from the U.S. (supporting prices), the other nations filled much of the void and raised their supply. I predicted that this Spring’s weather-related problems in the U.S. would not have any lasting effect. If the grains were entering a secular bull market, the price retracement after the large spike earlier this year would have been much less severe.
The deflationary forces are just too much for any long term price climb. With respect to the monetary system, what are the two primary causes of the deflationary forces? Lower interest rates and a firm dollar. The lower rates go, the more likely the markets will be oversupplied, all other things being equal. This is true with oil, nat gas, soybeans, lean hogs, cattle, and corn. The marginal cost to produce will be less as the farmer and producer costs of capital decline.
In addition, any longer-term commodity investor needs to hope that the USD will fade from here. Thus, a commodity investor is swimming upstream. In order for commodity prices to rise, we need to see interest rates to climb and for the USD to fall. Good luck getting that to happen. As long as this system remains intact, the opposite will occur. Essentially, a commodity investor’s best hope is to watch this monetary system unravel. If you are familiar with my blog, you already know my analysis.
Of course, there’s a lot of money to be made trading commodities over shorter time frames. But as my trading mentor once told me; trading futures is a great way to make a small fortune… from a bigger one.
Climate change and monetary printing cannot offset the deflationary forces
I understand that many are concerned with the inflationary monetary printing and I am, too. But if this money does not make it to the end user (you and me) how can prices be bid up more than the general rate of inflation? They cannot. This monetary production, designed to keep the governments in business, has been effectively sterilized; the debt generation must be serviced and most of this money remains in the financial shell. Much of the US dollar printing flows overseas and as long as the dollar remains supported, price inflation growth will continue to falter.
With respect to crop production and climate change; any adverse transformations in climate in one area of the world will probably be offset by other auspiciously-timed modifications in another region.
The only definite outcome I see from the climate change discussion is higher taxes. Of course, these taxes will be based to supposedly rid the environment of carbon emissions, but they will all be used to keep the governments in business and service their debts. Taxes based on climate change are designed to suppress our self-autonomy and to tax us into oblivion. But first, the youngsters in school need to be conditioned to believe that humans are causing this slow motion catastrophe.
Just an observation; the more carbon dioxide humans produce, the more plants should benefit. God created a self-healing mechanism and it still operates well. I find it astounding that trees and plants generate oxygen as a byproduct of transpiration and plant metabolism. Plants actually take a lower-energy-state carbon dioxide molecule and produce a higher-energy oxygen atom.
In the new world order, humans are the enemy and we need to be viewed with disdain. Thus, the carbon dioxide we give off when we breath needs to be terminated.
My contentions with the alt-financial media
I am always careful not to use the word “believe” in my analysis, since that denotes a subjective opinion and I have plenty of facts to back up what I discuss. However, I have two beliefs that underpin my blog and my writings;
Jesus is my savior and was the propitiation for my transgressions,
Satan is in charge of this world, and he is currently gaining more by keeping this monetary system intact. If I thought this system was going to collapse, I would have to conclude that Satan lost control.
With this out of the way, I want to enumerate the three reasons why I view the alt-financial media with a sense of contempt.
The writers, editors, and bloggers in the alt-financial media are usually more disingenuous and less knowledgeable than those they pillory. These writers take many honest and truthful observations and poison them with their hardwired biases. Moreover, many in the alt-financial media rely on services to make money; I often think of Martin Armstrong in this regard. It’s imperative that they cause a need in the reader, so the reader acts as desired. Perhaps the writer wants the reader to buy silver for a 30% markup. Perhaps the writer wants to convince his victim that his services are vital for his well-being. There really is no difference between these charlatans and the most crafty Madison Avenue marketers. Many alt-financial writers are just copywriting for sites like ZeroHedge, RT, and the Daily Reckoning. The more sensational their headlines, the more clicks they receive. These writers will write anything that makes it to these “mainstream” alt-financial sites.
As a result of the first reason, their conclusions and predictions are almost always antithetical to the actual outcomes.
Because their predictions are awful, their advice has been some of the worst I come across.
Okay, so do I believe Michael Snyder? Let’s break this down. Mr. Snyder often makes a number of sober and true observations, especially when he enumerates all the reasons why the United States is a Talmudic toilet bowl. Unfortunately, I can easily verify that he is often fast and loose on his facts and has always twisted them to conform to his predetermined outcomes.
So, what do I believe about Michael Snyder? I believe he does a lot of damage to the sheep who read his words. Moreover, I believe readers of the alt-financial media would be best served by discarding anything Mr. Snyder says. That’s my belief.