In a centrally-managed financial system, anyone forecasting with cycles will be wrong

Most “experts” have been wrong, because if they admitted what we have been saying all along, there would be no need for their “services.”

Note: I don’t see any upcoming recession. This morning, the Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter, down slightly from the 2% pace in the second quarter, but higher than the 1.7% estimate.

The GDP price index fell to 1.7%, lower than the last reading of 2.4% and less than the 1.8% estimate.

The muted price reading provides an auspicious backdrop for the Fed to continue monetizing debt and cutting short-term rates.

GDP Released On 10/30/2019 8:30:00 AM For Q3(a):2019

Morning Chris:

I think you will enjoy this video and, unlike the very smart and insightful host, not be “worried” about what he sees down the road:

Is A U.S. Recession Coming? with Raoul Pal | Recession Watch

Here was my response:

Hi William,
After I plowed through a couple of the commercials for this highly monetized channel, from which I am sure he is making some decent money, I was immediately confronted with the recession scare and the cycles.

I don’t know of what cycles these people see, because there aren’t any right now. This is a highly managed monetary and financial system. In fact, the poorer the economic performance, the more excuse the central banks have to monetize all of the sovereign debt.

The Big Bang of cycles took place in 2008. That was the first time in human history with a fiat monetary system that sovereign credit demand [debt issuance] outstripped the world’s net savings rate and organic credit growth [availability]. Since then, the central banks have been monetizing everything that is needed to keep the governments in business.

I don’t get caught up with economic recession and such, and if there were one, I would see it as an opportunity for the asset markets to move further higher, in direct contradiction to what the scaremongers of economic recession and cycle analysis proclaim. This is a synthetic economy and it could be the one before the supposed end times, if you are of that mindset.

Economic cycles [based on traditional economic research] are things of the past. Ever since the economic crisis of last decade we are in a new paradigm. Anyone who refuses to understand this global conspiracy needs to be rejected, because they do not see [or refuse to, since they have expensive services] what we talk about on a daily basis.

People of his ilk have been talking about a cycle top since mid-decade [and before]. I remember this gentleman’s videos from back then and he’s been wrong for years. Anyone who doesn’t understand this conspiracy needs to be rejected. Period, paragraph.

Thanks for the highly monetized video. I feel bad for the people who latch onto this stuff.


I get many emails about Martin Armstrong and here is my finding with his cycles analysis. He maintains that late 2015 was the start of his big bang. But according to his analysis, he previously said that the cycles will unfold regardless of how people try to repeal the trend. Now, his blog posts say that the sovereign debt markets are holding up, because the politicians are pressing the central banks to monetize debt. Based on Mr. Armstrong’s prior work, I thought that none of that could reverse the cycle. I digress….

Since 2008-09, a whole new set of economic laws have been invented and the global economy is much more centrally managed. This new system has legs, because the people prefer it to the old system. It is impossible to forecast anything based on cycles, because the economy that we once knew has been replaced with an artificial one. The central banks fund any necessary spending needs and manage the entire yield curve.

Anyone who is forecasting while refusing to acknowledge the elephant in the room is misleading you and not worthy of his hire. I am here to tell my readers what is going on and I don’t charge a dime, nor do you have to plow through monetized videos with willfully ignorant personalities who discount any talk of the global conspiracy for a one-world financial dictatorship.


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