Investing based on our beliefs instead of reality; A lethal philosophy

Belief vs. Reality

I agree with you and I’ve done great financially. I am a physician, but I am also an odd duck. I am old fashioned and I am similar [in] age to you. I am an avid reader and I’ve come to realize that everything is rigged and controlled by the central bankers. Please continue your great educational work.

Thank You,
M

The elites and their generations established an inscrutable and confusing system to ensnare the sleeping masses

If we can comprehend that the elites are in control of their own financial system, then everything else will fall into place and our proper course of action becomes clear.  So, while I am concerned about things that are within my control, I otherwise live a life free of worry. I plan based on what I observe in reality.

Here is what happens when we invest based on belief…
Investing based on belief is easier, but lethal. Investing based on reality is difficult, but more rewarding

The prophets on the former Patriot radio have been crying imminent economic collapse since the late 1980’s, when Bill Cooper was shilling gold and silver to his listeners. I reviewed about 100 hours of his podcasts from his Hour of the Time website from the early 90’s and his speeches on YouTube videos from as far back as 1989, and one of his underlying themes was that of impending economic collapse.

Granted, Mr. Cooper was correct on many fronts as the new world order has steamrolled its way into every person’s life; just look at all the degeneracy, busted families, and broken dreams around us. But if we took his financial advice, we would have been decimated. His guests fed into that confirmation bias of financial collapse, which helped to fuel the sales of his sponsors. The shortwave show hosts of Mr. Cooper’s genre peddled freeze-dried food, survival gear, and gold and silver at high mark-ups. The only gold I recommend are U.S. gold eagles, but those have low profit margins.

The belief, of course, was that the whole financial system was going to fall apart, because the psychopathic elites were losing control. This patriot radio and alt-media philosophy now stretches as far back as 30 years ago and longer, and anyone who seriously subscribed to this mindset for the past 20-30 years has been effectively marginalized (that is if they are still on this planet).

As you can see from my previous writings, I have also concluded that the internet has only helped the elites to speed up the humiliation and financial decimation of the former patriot movement. I cannot believe how effectively the propaganda outlets like ZeroHedge have destroyed the patriots. As we can see, those who invest and plan for the future based on fear and belief will always end up poorer.

…Here’s what happens when we invest based on reality
Why does every crisis aid the new world order? It’s like flipping a coin 50 times and having it come up heads each time. Perhaps it’s more than chance.

When we first wake up to the agenda of the new world order, we usually think that the whole economic system is about to come unglued. I held that belief for several years after my wake up call and my investment choices largely reflected this belief, and I had a formal financial background. I woke up to the new world order in 2002, after digesting my personal experiences with the 9/11 attacks. Some people usually find out about the new world order after having to go through an acrimonious divorce or contentious lawsuit. Others stumble upon it after an alcoholic tragedy or profound personal loss. The causes vary, but the results are the same; we are confronted with a conspiracy too monstrous to contemplate.

Have you ever wondered why our financial system always seems so close to collapse, but is always somehow held together? Perhaps it was constructed that way on purpose, so that it could fool those who wake up to its intentions. It is a system built on fear, uncertainty, and inscrutability, so those who do not understand how it works will be its prey.

Know Your Adversary

Regardless of our circumstances, we need to settle down and mature in our life struggle as we attempt to move forward in a wicked world. We also have to reconcile with the fact that this system remains intact, despite all the ongoing crises. It’s been more than a decade since the world ostensibly fell apart, yet the global elites have gained so much more power in its wake, while the sheep have even less control.

Still not convinced? This agenda moves forward year in and year out, yet every crisis and event always ends up in the favor of the NWO elites. It is like flipping a coin 50 times and having it come up heads on each occasion. If you refuse to believe me then you refuse to observe reality.

Most followers of the alt-media and former patriot movement may claim to know the agenda of the new world order, yet most will never accept that this current system is an effective system for the elites to achieve their goals. Most who are aware of the new world order keep thinking TPTB are done. My observations speak otherwise.

Obfuscation and partisan rancor are intentionally injected to confuse 95% of the population. If we can accept that this is part of the NWO plan, the world will make much more sense, and our long-term investment and personal choices will reflect this reality. Thus, we can move forward and plan accordingly. I am always prepared for opportunities and if things fall apart, I stand ready to benefit. I suggest you do the same.

October 13th Update – The Fed ramps up QE more quickly than expected; Prepare for the inevitable as stocks are already near all-time highs

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-The Fed “surprises” by announcing $60 billion/mo. in new Treasury purchases, while rolling over maturing portfolio. This was higher than my $50 billion/mo. prediction by the end of the year.
-The latest domestic inflation numbers and fading PMI data give the Fed cover to run massive QE operations. This past week, the PPI and CPI were weaker and the PMI data looks poor around the globe.
-By concentrating the buying on short-term durations, the Fed is addressing the Repo problems, while buying up new Treasuries to keep the United States, Inc. in business.
-The fact that the Fed reacted so quickly to the short-term funding problems shows that it will do whatever it needs to keep things moving forward.
-Longer-dated Treasuries sold off as it was expected later in the year that the Fed would begin to buy bonds. As of now, they have not announced any large scale long-dated purchases. This is temporary and the drops in yields will commence again.
-Commodities futures could get a further lift as China lifts tariffs on Soybeans and Hogs.
-The other central banks will ramp up large QE programs as their inflation numbers look even lower than here in the U.S. Massive asset inflation will result
-In an over-indebted world, tariffs can actually be deflationary, because the tariffs work to undermine economic growth, and as the economy rolls over, demand fades and manufacturing data drops. Think of the global ISM and PMI data. With everyone in massive debt, trade problems can be deflationary.
-Be prepared for higher asset prices. The S&P 500 is only a couple percent below all-time highs. Global real estate and dollar-based assets are going to rise.
-Higher asset prices are not the primary objective of the Fed, but rather, a result of keeping the U.S. government in business.

The internet can be a powerful tool, but its potential is limited by our biases

I know you say that the internet has not been a benefit to most people, but I don’t really agree. For me, it has helped me to uncover a lot of information that I never would have come across. I have also learned a lot about religion and the Bible; there’s a lot of great pastors on YouTube. I use the internet to help me with pay bills and learn about investments.

Anyway, I am curious to know what you think.

Dave, NV

The topic of the internet comes up often for discussion. Let’s look at some data to see if the internet is helping out most people.

Income inequality and net worth disparities widen since 1995

Mainstream adoption of the internet began around 1995, and since then, just about all measures of income and wealth by percentile have showed growing disparities.

Having easy access to information and possessing wisdom are two entirely different concepts, but most confuse them for being interchangeable.

Income inequality in the U.S. is at its highest level in more than 50 years,  even as the economy extends the longest expansion in the country’s history. New data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that the gulf between the highest earners and everyone else is the widest it’s been in at least 50 years.

Since 1995, and before, the income disparity in the United States has widened markedly. The internet may help a minority of the population, but the majority are not becoming empowered
Wealth disparities widen since 1995
Though 1989 predates the advent of the mainstream internet, this chart illustrates the same trend; the great unwashed masses (and alt-financial followers) continue to get poorer over time

Having easy access to information and possessing wisdom are two entirely different concepts, but most confuse them for being interchangeable.

Most people have fallen victim to the power of the internet

Those who know how to exploit others have found the internet a wonderful tool to enrich themselves at the expense of the others

“I think the Internet in its current incarnation is a confirmation bias machine… I worry that some of these technologies will be very useful to autocratic regimes to enforce their will.”

Jeff Bezos, October 2018

This man is laughing, because he cannot believe how easy it is to make money off the masses

The globalists exploit our confirmation biases to fracture society over relatively trivial issues. The shards of this fracture are effectively neutered in a sea of political correctness and made ineffectual. The new world order agenda is then allowed to steamroll through relatively unopposed.

With the internet, we freely give over to the globalists all of our personal information, our hopes, dreams, proclivities, foibles, and beliefs. They know us better than we know ourselves. They use the internet to develop trading and investing algorithms that exploit our weaknesses.

They then attach us to the shackles of debt and we allow them to take our birthright. For those drowning in a sea of personal red ink, they need to look in the mirror before blaming the government and Illuminati. Why do you think there is so much advertising on the web? Because it works and in ways that the sheeple can’t even comprehend. The “confirmation bias machine” of Jeff Bezos has rendered the average person completely unable to make sound long-term financial and personal decisions. Mr. Bezos didn’t become the wealthiest man (at least publicly) by being a nice guy. He exploits our weaknesses to get us to spend until we are beyond broke.

You may say that you use the internet to study economics and the new world order and that without it, you would have less understanding. That may be correct, but for every person like you, there are five others who are using it to learn how to cook methamphetamine.

You may think that the internet is the great information superhighway and that it has helped you to make money by spotting excellent investment opportunities over the decades. But for every person like you, there are 10 others who use it primarily to surf pornography.

How are you going to use the internet? Don’t use it like the rest of the consumer debt slaves. Use it to make truly wise financial and personal choices. We all have biases, but recognizing them is the most important step to overcoming. The decision is ours, but the internet gives us plenty of rope. Will you use it to climb or hang? Most choose the latter.

A subscriber asks if rent control helps out renters

Government intervention always costs more in the long run

Does rent control work? I see CA [California] and OR [Oregon] pushing these laws into effect. Many cities already have rent control. Does it work?

Geoff

This is a very good question. It would be logical to assume that controlling the spiraling costs of rent would help out renters, but let’s take a look at the economic ramifications of rent control in the aggregate.

As rents drop below equilibrium, landlords restrict supply and renters demand more units. Huge distortions result. The renters of units not covered under rent control pay the difference as their rents rise much higher as a result

While people who manage to secure a rent-controlled home will benefit substantially in the long run, these policies can cause landlords to make choices that can exacerbate income inequality. A research paper from Stanford University researchers, which was published on National Bureau of Economic Research’s website, nber.org, examined the fallout from a successful 1994 ballot initiative in San Francisco that created rent control protections for small multifamily buildings built before 1980. Here is what the researchers found:

  • People who lived in homes that became subject to rent control rules were between 10% and 20% more likely to remain at that address, versus people who weren’t in rent-controlled units.
  • The economic benefit to people living in rent-controlled units averaged between $2,300 and $6,660 per person each year.
  • Meanwhile, landlords were 10% more likely to convert their building into condos if it became rent controlled. Overall, the rental supply in San Francisco dropped by 6% following the expansion of rent control.
  • Rents throughout the city increased by 5.1% as a result — the researchers calculated the total cost to tenants from rent hikes to be $2.9 billion, nearly half of which was paid by residents who moved to San Francisco following the establishment of rent control.
  • The researchers found that rents for apartments that were exempt from rent control policies grew much more substantially as a result.

What does this say? Those who are able to obtain a rent-controlled apartment benefit at the expense of those who could not.

Other research has suggested that rent control policies may actually contribute to a deterioration in the quality of rental housing and may inhibit construction of new rental housing. I lived in Manhattan for 14 years and know first hand that much of the housing stock regulated by rent control was substandard and in poor condition. The tenants were afraid to raise issues to the landlord and the landlord rarely put money into these units.

Of course, we will never win an argument with someone who supports rent control. They are either demagogues and politicians who are trying to appeal to a certain voting demographic or are the renters who are hoping to get a break on their monthly rent payment. Most people like to get something for nothing, and social welfare and spending are based on this premise.

There is no such thing as a free lunch, and if someone is benefiting from rent control, that benefit is coming at someone else’s expense.

 

 

Understanding the spiritual element is our key to success

Understanding the spiritual aspect to this monetary system is key

Hello:

You make insightful comments. To you it matters that faith is your guiding light. I enjoy checking in with you but wonder whether in bringing faith to the forefront you’re limiting your audience.

John

Here was my response (edited for grammar)

Our adversary doesn’t come out and show us his true colors. He feigns ineptitude and incompetence

Hi John,
Thanks for the email.

Indeed, I don’t expect much traction on the site, since my biblical hermeneutics can put off many. But, if someone is going to take exception, you would think that it would be based on my worldview. The ones who take exception base their contentions on a reprocessing of alt-financial doctrine, which has been largely incorrect.

My gestalt views on the economy and the monetary system are deeply related to my biblical analysis and both seem to be deeply intertwined. I don’t think I can separate them. This agenda goes very deep and my understanding of it relates a lot to scripture.

I look around and observe, and have to conclude that this system is very predictable if we consider what the Bible says. Knowing the Bible and Economics can be profitable, and in a way that we don’t have to market ourselves and step over others.

Satan is not going to come out and say “I am in charge and this is the system that will destroy the many.” People will riot overnight. He entraps the masses by having his adversary [you and I] continually underestimating his grip on power. Both mainstream and alt-media don’t seem to comprehend. [They say they know a lot about the satanic agenda, but disregard the biblical element]. Besides, knowing what I know, I live a life free of worry.

I get it though. I could try to drop the bible stuff and make it more “mainstream” alt-financial, but I guess there is something telling me to do what I do.

Thanks for stopping by.

Chris

Deflationary pressures in the marketplace; 40% of domestic corn production is now directed to ethanol

The grain glut is not going away anytime soon

Sector at a Glance

The major feed grains are corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn is the primary U.S. feed grain, accounting for more than 95 percent of total feed grain production and use.

  • More than 90 million acres of land are planted to corn, with the majority of the crop grown in the Heartland region.
  • Most of the crop is used as the main energy ingredient in livestock feed.
  • Corn is also processed into a multitude of food and industrial products including starch, sweeteners, corn oil, beverage and industrial alcohol, and fuel ethanol.

The United States is a major player in the world corn trade market, with between 10 and 20 percent of its corn crop exported to other countries.

USDA – Feedgrains Sector at a Glance, August 20th

Forget Malthus and all his catastrophe hype; global as well as domestic grain production continues to flood the markets. How do we know? Just look at how much of the U.S. corn production is devoted to ethanol production.

40% of all corn production now goes into ethanol production. There’s just too much of it, and the Federal government is inventing reasons to keep the farmers in business

As much as 40% of all corn grown in the United States goes into ethanol production, and both the car manufacturers and farmers prefer it this way. By promoting gasoline/ethanol blends (as much as 15% of volume) the Feds are conciliating the farmers, while appealing to the wishes of car manufacturers. Since ethanol is corrosive to car engines and shortens their lifespans, car manufacturers will always support ethanol production.

Productivity over the past century has exploded higher. While total acreage has remained level, the level of output continues to rise
Domestic Soybean output drops slightly, but global output is flat

Biodiesel makes up 25 percent of soybean oil used in the U.S. Biodiesel is a renewable substitute for petroleum diesel made from soybean oil. The fuel reduces greenhouse gas emissions, increases energy efficiency and provides a 15 percent price support for soybeans.

ussoy.org, Uses for Soybeans (Biodiesel)

Despite the sound and fury of this past Spring’s weather-related planting problems, soy production remained fairly consistent on a global basis.

Soybean output per acre has more than doubled over the past 45 years. The amount of acreage devoted to soy has risen as its demand has grown

This is just a friendly reminder to those who are banking on higher grains prices over the shorter-term. The supply continues to climb as interest rates fall and growing technology advances. The developing nations are also becoming more important players and their planting costs and overhead are usually much lower than in the U.S., Canada, and E.U.

If the governments weren’t trying to support the corn and soy markets via fuel production, prices would be even lower. Despite a growing global population, prices cannot seem to get any momentum.

October 6th Update – Yields resume their descent; We better find a way to make money in this system, because the alt-financial media will not show us

To download the podcast – Right mouse click here

-As expected, bond yields resume their downward trend. Despite the ECB talk of higher fiscal spending, bonds yields have, once again, begun to fall.
-The only thing that will collapse this system is higher than expected inflation. That’s it. The central banks can work monetary policy to go fully negative for years. Income-generating assets will continue rising in price.
-The student loan debt situation is not a debacle. It was carefully planned to keep the younger generations in debt slavery, so they didn’t cause higher inflation as monetary printing went parabolic. It’s impossible to create inflationary spikes when the world is servicing its debts. STAY OUT OF ALL DEBT THAT DOES NOT GENERATE OFFSETTING INCOME.
-If your views are as peculiar as mine, nobody will hire you to any gainful employment. You better figure out how to be financially successful in this system.
-Although my predictive accuracy is much higher than anyone else in the alt-financial media, the negative comments I receive are about 4x as much as the positive ones. People do not want to hear what I say.
-Listeners of the alt-financial media have an easy excuse to not work for the future. Why bother if things will fall apart? I am taking out another commercial line to pay off higher yielding ones and to buy another cash flow generating property.
-I don’t write for other websites anymore, because I am directed to write stuff with which I don’t subscribe. Moreover, the site editors heavily edit my work, because their readers won’t agree with it.
-I have never been offered an interview opportunity in the many years of my writing. Talk show hosts are disingenuous, because they have things to sell. Truth is always secondary; never forget that.
Here is a guy with many times more subscribers than I discussing where bond yields are going when the US 10-year touched 1.9%. Of course, he was completely wrong.
-I have been correct, because I know who is in control. If you are in your 20-40’s and believe the alt-financial narrative, I strongly suggest you redirect your mindset. When you are my age and older, you will no longer have the stamina to begin building something. The alt-media keep us from planning for the future.
-I see what has happened to those my age and older who bought into the Bill Cooper and ZeroHedge collapse stuff going back 10-30 years. They are on disability, broke, and asking others for help. They didn’t build anything. They traded the wrong way and invested in the worst performers.

An email asks; Do I believe in climate change and its impact on crop and food prices?

Trading and investing in commodities are two different things

Note: I do not endorse any trading service or blogger, including the ones listed in this article. I apologize for not being more active on the blog.

Yesterday morning I opend a small long position on corn because i knew… the USDA report would be bullish. As expected by several insiders, climate cooling trend at least in Canada and northern US will be negative to crops.

Yesterday CORN futures increased 4% and you can see there is problems on this crop: https://twitter.com/CRMagri/status/1178947505419116544

What Nasa says: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration

I know you don’t believe in doomers like Michael Snyder, but do you think that are now material facts you can’t ignore ?

Regards,
P

Three factors adversely affecting commodity prices
  1. The dynamics of the globalized commodity markets suppress price inflation similar to the globalized markets for manufactured goods.
  2. As interest rates drop over the longer term and a firm’s cost of capital declines, production and supply will rise as the marginal costs of production fall.
  3. A strong US dollar has been knocking the knees out of any bullish situation.
Guess which person invested in commodities this decade?

The reason why I have not been bullish on commodities for many years now is fairly straightforward. These commodity markets are fully globalized and any deficiency in corn production in one nation can be made up by the other nations. Moreover, many of the lower-cost nations have been ramping up production as the larger multinational firms work to keep the prices of their input factors low. Since the price we see on the screen is the marginal price, I see it difficult for prices to rise on a sustained basis, unless we see a change in the fundamentals.

Over the long-term, commodity inflation roughly mirrors the general rate of CPI, which is much lower than monetary inflation. I notice that over the very long-term, gold is the only commodity that mirrors money growth, which is why I usually only recommend gold as a long-term hold.

Let’s analyze what we observed earlier this year. Although we saw crop-bullish weather and climate data coming from the U.S. (supporting prices), the other nations filled much of the void and raised their supply. I predicted that this Spring’s weather-related problems in the U.S. would not have any lasting effect. If the grains were entering a secular bull market, the price retracement after the large spike earlier this year would have been much less severe.

The deflationary forces are just too much for any long term price climb. With respect to the monetary system, what are the two primary causes of the deflationary forces? Lower interest rates and a firm dollar. The lower rates go, the more likely the markets will be oversupplied, all other things being equal. This is true with oil, nat gas, soybeans, lean hogs, cattle, and corn. The marginal cost to produce will be less as the farmer and producer costs of capital decline.

In addition, any longer-term commodity investor needs to hope that the USD will fade from here. Thus, a commodity investor is swimming upstream. In order for commodity prices to rise, we need to see interest rates to climb and for the USD to fall. Good luck getting that to happen. As long as this system remains intact, the opposite will occur. Essentially, a commodity investor’s best hope is to watch this monetary system unravel. If you are familiar with my blog, you already know my analysis.

Of course, there’s a lot of money to be made trading commodities over shorter time frames. But as my trading mentor once told me; trading futures is a great way to make a small fortune… from a bigger one.

Climate change and monetary printing cannot offset the deflationary forces
An inherent non sequitur regarding carbon emissions; Carbon dioxide encourages plant growth, which gives off oxygen

I understand that many are concerned with the inflationary monetary printing and I am, too. But if this money does not make it to the end user (you and me) how can prices be bid up more than the general rate of inflation? They cannot. This monetary production, designed to keep the governments in business, has been effectively sterilized; the debt generation must be serviced and most of this money remains in the financial shell.  Much of the US dollar printing flows overseas and as long as the dollar remains supported, price inflation growth will continue to falter.

With respect to crop production and climate change; any adverse transformations in climate in one area of the world will probably be offset by other auspiciously-timed modifications in another region.

The only definite outcome I see from the climate change discussion is higher taxes. Of course, these taxes will be based to supposedly rid the environment of carbon emissions, but they will all be used to keep the governments in business and service their debts. Taxes based on climate change are designed to suppress our self-autonomy and to tax us into oblivion. But first, the youngsters in school need to be conditioned to believe that humans are causing this slow motion catastrophe.

Just an observation; the more carbon dioxide humans produce, the more plants should benefit. God created a self-healing mechanism and it still operates well. I find it astounding that trees and plants generate oxygen as a byproduct of transpiration and plant metabolism. Plants actually take a lower-energy-state carbon dioxide molecule and produce a higher-energy oxygen atom.

In the new world order, humans are the enemy and we need to be viewed with disdain. Thus, the carbon dioxide we give off when we breath needs to be terminated.

My contentions with the alt-financial media
Dishonest people are easier to spot than disingenuous ones

I am always careful not to use the word “believe” in my analysis, since that denotes a subjective opinion and I have plenty of facts to back up what I discuss. However, I have two beliefs that underpin my blog and my writings;

  • Jesus is my savior and was the propitiation for my transgressions,
  • Satan is in charge of this world, and he is currently gaining more by keeping this monetary system intact. If I thought this system was going to collapse, I would have to conclude that Satan lost control.

With this out of the way, I want to enumerate the three reasons why I view the alt-financial media with a sense of contempt.

  1.  The writers, editors, and bloggers in the alt-financial media are usually more disingenuous and less knowledgeable than those they pillory. These writers take many honest and truthful observations and poison them with their hardwired biases. Moreover, many in the alt-financial media rely on services to make money;  I often think of Martin Armstrong in this regard. It’s imperative that they cause a need in the reader, so the reader acts as desired. Perhaps the writer wants the reader to buy silver for a 30% markup. Perhaps the writer wants to convince his victim that his services are vital for his well-being. There really is no difference between these charlatans and the most crafty Madison Avenue marketers. Many alt-financial writers are just copywriting for sites like ZeroHedge, RT, and the Daily Reckoning. The more sensational their headlines, the more clicks they receive. These writers will write anything that makes it to these “mainstream” alt-financial sites.
  2. As a result of the first reason, their conclusions and predictions are almost always antithetical to the actual outcomes.
  3. Because their predictions are awful, their advice has been some of the worst I come across.

Okay, so do I believe Michael Snyder? Let’s break this down. Mr. Snyder often makes a number of sober and true observations, especially when he enumerates all the reasons why the United States is a Talmudic toilet bowl.  Unfortunately, I can easily verify that he is often fast and loose on his facts and has always twisted them to conform to his predetermined outcomes.

So, what do I believe about Michael Snyder? I believe he does a lot of damage to the sheep who read his words. Moreover, I believe readers of the alt-financial media would be best served by discarding anything Mr. Snyder says.  That’s my belief.