We don’t need to see our society progress in order to expand the economy
Note: I am just writing down some simple concepts that for some reason do not register with many in the alt-financial media. But this is an important idea to grasp; most believe society must evolve to a higher level in order for the economy to grow. But I say, don’t get too caught up in the depravity around us. If we do, we will most likely overreact and make poor investment choices.
According to Wikipedia, two events (or propositions) are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur at the same time. Furthermore, the conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred.
I agree with your more moderate view of the economic situation at present, which is different from the Armstrong Crash and Burn vision. In fact it is helpful to observe the markets.
Contrary to what Armstrong says, the world is far more interwoven economically than what he preaches.
There is so much correlation between world stock markets that the divergence between the emerging markets and the US and European markets does not really exist as much as he wants us to believe with his clockwork universe model. The entire world has to collapse in order for some of Armstrong’s predictions to come true. That is not going to happen.
So there is plenty of hope…Human civilization is a process of refinement in the way people live together. I think we have a fair chance to continue on that path.
Here was my response:
I take the realistic [and objective] view as it has been the correct way for decades. Plus, it is clear the central banks have everything under control, and that the bad press is just for show opposition. They control the yield curve and are all working together to get the agenda pushed forward. So, as I have been saying all along, they have the power to drop yields if they choose (which they are) and they will continue to fall and that will enhance asset values, ceteris paribus.
Armstrong was [misguided] with most things priced off the yield curve, especially real estate and bonds. When the Fed came out late last year and turned dovish, I knew TPTB intended to keep this going. It can be kept going for years. I have been writing for a couple years to brace for negative yields if the [central] banks wanted that.
With that said, I am not a fan of this system. I outline it on my blog, and I am not optimistic for humanity [in general]. But that mindset doesn’t have to be mutually exclusive to the contemplation of economic growth. But if things collapse it will be by intent, though it won’t appear that way. If things fall apart now the central banks will get the blame and that is not something they want to have pinned on them. TPTB have much more to gain by keeping things intact for now.
I walked out of the 2015 conference and began to realize he [Armstrong] was incorrect with many of his assumptions… I had confidence that the central banks were in control.
Here’s the thing about Armstrong. He has knowledge, so if someone like myself is going to criticize him, he better know what he is saying. This is why we don’t hear all too much [negatively about him] in the alt-financial media. I think most do not have the background to argue. You see past it.
Anyone who reads my blog knows that the economic system and the human condition go hand in hand. Most Godly people observe what is going on in the economy with horror, but keep in mind that this monetary system is not what the vast majority of people deserve, but what they choose.
A degraded humanity prefers this current system. People enjoy spending other people’s money and they also find the concept of free money appealing. They don’t want to understand how borrowed social spending and budget deficits ultimately reduce their standard of living. Most voters possess an egosyntonic mindset and don’t want know how this works. Most believe truth to be relative. They are short-term, linear thinkers and only care about themselves. Why am I correct? Just look at the massive government deficits for a clue to that answer.
This is why I have been advising my readers for years about how to stay ahead of a floundering humanity. People prefer free money, but that comes with the cost of massive deflationary deficit spending. I think you get the picture.