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Commentary as of 2:30 pm, Sunday, June 9th
-Mexico trade situation taken care of late Friday after markets close. Relief rally tonight?
-Dovish Fed policy designed to help out the other central banks and it’s working out well. Until the recent Fed policy jawboning becomes more clearly defined, stock markets could be in a holding pattern.
-S&P futures just barely retakes 50-day mva. Dow and Nasdaq both lagging. Anti-trust concerns holding back large tech.
-Euro futures could rise another penny to 50-week mva, but upside is limited as ECB desperately needs to embark on more unconventional policy.
-Russell 2000 and trannies further lagging and that gives me pause.
-Bonds need to rest after a great run and I doubt the 10-year UST will take out 2.00% immediately. I see the short-term Mexican trade solution pushing up yields short-term as fears of catastrophe wane. This does not change the longer-term picture. A powerful daily bullish pennant flag has been established, but we need to see more concise language from the Fed to trigger further upside in bond futures.
-I am no longer bullish on gold and would be a seller of rallies. We could touch 1362, but that has been the resistance since mid-2013. The latest COT report shows an extremely stretched condition in just two weeks as many traders fear Armageddon. An almost 70k contract surge in large spec longs last week (as of Tuesday’s close), and most likely additional increase since, has reduced gold’s firepower tremendously. Mexico solution and trader uncertainty on how the Fed will proceed could cap rallies near-term.
-Facebook introducing a new crypto. I am concerned the alts as well as BTC could suffer short-term (already have). You and I may think that FB is Satan incarnate, but more than one-third of adult humanity will gladly go along with it. Many alts could become superfluous? A test of mid 6,000s on BTC not out of the question. It needs to retake 8200 immediately.
-Could FB crypto be the answer to what the future looks like?
-Why I do not run a traditional business nor work for someone.
-Real estate opportunities come about more than we think.