–Ben Bernanke met with Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner yesterday to discuss the economy and financial system. He is surprised the markets are holding up this well and that comparisons with last decade are seriously misguided. I agree.
-Mortgage rates around the world are dropping. Denmark’s home buyers will soon borrow at 1.5%.Japanese buyers borrow at less than 1%. Germany’s rate for a 30-year is just over 2%.
-The next move for US mortgage rates is down; perhaps eventually taking out the old lows over the next few years. GET READY!
–Some smart money is building build to rent single-family housing. People cannot manage their debt-slave lives and will occupy these residences.
-The central banks are desperate to raise rates and unwind their balance sheets to have ammo for the next downturn. They will fall short and will have to resort to unconventional policy (<0% rates and bigger balance sheets)
–Ray Dalio has an agenda and it is to appease the ChiCom government, so he can deploy his billions into sweetheart ChiCom deals.
-Ray Dalio is like Tokyo Rose, but the alt-financial media, which is desperate to see the destruction of the Anglo-American establishment and NWO, pick up on his shilling to perpetuate its poverty echo chamber.
-We used last month’s IMF data to state the case that the dollar is not going anywhere for the indefinite future.
-We may be surprised that the stock markets may hold up better than the alt-financial is contemplating. When I see the alt-financial media proclaiming Dow 3,000 and that NFLX is worth $0, I think we may bottom sooner rather than later.
-The tens of trillions in new sovereign bonds that were issued this past decade are being used as monetary equivalents and leverageable assets to buy up all sorts of assets. Those with the collateral will do the buying. These bonds can help the nations to issue more debt. This outstanding debt is highly deflationary as it must be serviced and paid back, thus creating a sucking force out of the economy.
-Asset prices will continue to rise and all this social spending will just crowd out private investment and further impoverish the average person. These people will cry out to government for help, which will only further tighten the poverty shackles.
– Three U.S. central bank leaders — current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his immediate past predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke — spoke in a roundtable Friday morning in Atlanta at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting.
-The Fed is clearly adjusting their language to accommodate the increasing market volatility. Was Dow 22,000 low enough for them to act?
-The Fed was concerned that Jerome Powell’s presence would not be strong enough, so they added Yellen and Bernanke to the panel interview.
-The purpose of yesterday’s panel discussion of the Fed chiefs was to show a unified approach to monetary policy.
-Yesterday’s panel was there to help enhance the Fed reputation and that it knows it will get the blame if things roll over.
-We are not out of the woods, as credit market problems are persisting and growing. However, the drop in sovereign yields around the world are a direct reflection in the change in the Fed’s stance.
-On Thursday, the Brookings Institute released a Janet Yellen interview in which she reiterated her concerns over elevated asset prices.
-On two occasions yesterday, the panel (Bernanke) recognized the Fed’s need to look at what its policy was doing to the global economy. I think this is the first time they discussed this as an important concern.
-US unemployment numbers were much better than anticipated, but I have always stated that employment levels are a coincident indicator, at best.
-Guidance by AAPL is more of a forward or leading indicator, so we still may eventually have problems, regardless of Fed policy
–Mortgage rates dropping fast will lend support to real estate.
-Two recommendations going forward (working-class real estate and cash)
-Market volatility is to be expected as things continue to unwind
-AAPL earnings and guidance are truer leading economic indicators. Unemployment (Today’s bullish ADP numbers) is a lagging indicator.
-Credit market problems in Canada and Australia (via their real estate markets) are just symptoms of further problems to come. Chinese economic and credit market contractions are quickening
-Plan for the inevitable outcome of negative rates in the US and the other developed world
-We were warned almost a year ago that credit and asset markets were going to do what they are doing now.
-Cryptos still point downward. As credit contracts there will be no way that these assets will move higher. Large holders are borrowing against their crypto holdings as they are loath to sell as these prices. A recipe for disaster.
-Gold still looks good and the COT report still points to a bullish tilt. $1,300 by tomorrow?
-Trump is creating a lot of uncertainty and the Fed flight path was preprogrammed going back before the 2016 election. Bernanke talked about balance sheet unwind when he was Fed Chair.
-Powell is carrying out the plan, but the Trump problems are creating the unforeseen. Trump is not our ally, as I question his stability. The working class has continued to fall further behind under the Trump economic policies.
-Trump is not fighting the new world order. He was put in to promote the new world order’s next phase.
-Currency market volatility precludes us from actively speculating in currencies.
-Working class real estate is the only asset class I see as still providing opportunity
-There will be opportunities to those with the liquidity