I have uploaded a January 14th Market Update. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below.
To download the podcast – Right mouse click here
-Domestic stock market analysis with some ideas.
-In this uncertain trading environment, a look at the moving averages is important
-Fed Vice-Chair, Richard Clarida, talks the party line
-I still think the Fed may unwind the balance sheet more than what some are hoping for.
-A retrace of 10-year UST yields to 50-day mva (2.93%) is in the cards.
-It is difficult to determine how gold and oil will do when we do not have the COT reports. The weakish US dollar should continue to support both as well as the commodity sector.
-The concerns over the flattening yield curve may be unwarranted. We live in a centrally-managed economy and financial system
–The latest Chinese trade data do not help the trade negotiations and will continue to cause problems for the foreseeable future.
-AMZN and Jeff Bezos. Could we look back 10 years from now and say this was the beginning of the end for AMZN? Bezos is 54, will probably lose half his shares, and seems more concerned about chasing tail at this point. It is easy for him to take his eye off the ball. Some say he is interested in running for office. That is too many distractions. Bezos said that eventually all companies die of old age. Is he hinting at something?
-AAPL has its own set of problems. It doesn’t have Steve Jobs anymore and Tim Cook cannot seem to conjure up more novel ideas. Is he just squeezing out extra toothpaste from the tube? When Warren Buffett catches on to a tech company’s financial engineering, perhaps it’s too late. AAPL is not a banking firm.
-AMZN and AAPL problems don’t necessarily spell the end of the Nasdaq rally, but it can’t help.
–Are the latest bitcoin stories believable? Any BTC bull should dip back into the game and pick up a small starter position. The returns are asymmetric.