December 15th Update – Repo market madness; a symptom of the disease that continues to fester and what I recommend
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-An analysis of the timeline for the global financial dictatorship. What the globalists still need to do before they pull the plug. Gun confiscation is a must before the elites crash it all.
-A number of subscribers ask me to comment on Martin Armstrong’s analysis about the repo market madness. Joel Skousen also is saying that the repo market will lead to catastrophe. Is he right?
–Is ZeroHedge right?
-Why and how the repo market blew up. What’s next for the Fed?
-Recall Bernanke’s Wile E Coyote moment comments. Trumps’s trillion dollar deficits pushed that time frame forward. Will Powell, the gentile outsider take the blame?
–The mainstream is trying to divert investor attention away from the Fed policy actions.
China’s growth outlook overtakes the Fed trajectory as the second biggest concern after U.S.-China trade issues
-What I recommend from here on out. As asset prices move higher, the opportunity costs of holding cash fall. I have been spotting the beginnings of some reckless speculation in my areas of investment.
December 12th Market Update – The new paradigm; Those who say the markets are rigged, fixed, or cyclical cannot be trusted
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-These markets are not rigged nor fixed. The performances of the major asset markets are a direct result of the significant changes to monetary and fiscal policies over the past decade.
-Those who correctly interpreted these dynamics have profited with confidence. Those who couldn’t comprehend the economics behind these changes made the worst investment decisions and dispensed the poorest advice.
-Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday was very revealing of the direction of the asset market. One comment overshadowed all others. I took note.
-Powell stated that the Fed will probably begin purchasing coupon-bearing Treasuries soon; these are longer-dated notes, over a year in duration at issuance. We have been discussing for a while that this needs to be as QE can never end and that the assets on the Fed’s balance sheet must climb, so that rates can move lower and that the the Federal government can stay in business.
-Those who keep saying the markets are fixed or rigged do not understand intermediate economic theory and should not be dispensing their garbage advice.
-Gold couldn’t stay higher today and fell sharply. The COT is still extremely overbought; more than last week’s COT.
-Real estate in the U.S. is still attractive. The areas that I have been recommending to my readers (former industrial and Rust Belt cities are on tap for the best returns in 2020.)
-One reader asked me about Spokane, WA real estate last month, which I recommended, and it was listed as a hot spot for 2020. The hottest housing markets of 2020 are far from the coasts
-The Dow and S&P 500 put in new all-time highs. Most of the bullishness came from Powell’s comment yesterday that the Fed will start buying coupon securities again.
-Building the first million is the toughest. After that, it gets easier; as long you do not listen to the people pushing the ideas of fixed and rigged markets, or peddling the cycle trash.
December 4th Update – Markets in focus; Realtor.com surveys; The traders who profit the most from stock day trading; What happens if student loans are forgiven?
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-Stock move back up. Who makes the most from stock and index day trading? It’s not the guy looking at the charts. My thoughts based on my experience at Nasdaq.
-I can easily see a scenario where some close to Trump know beforehand about what he will say and can trade on that.
-Gold looking better as the COT has unwound some of its open interest. The Commercial shorts are still above 300k net short.
–Realtor.com 2020 Housing Survey came out this morning. What I think in light of Realtor.com’s 2019 Survey.
-The ones who really benefit from student loan debt forgiveness and how can we benefit, even if we don’t have student loans. Discussion of a Forbes article titled, If $1.6 Trillion Of Student Loan Debt Is Forgiven, This Is What Happens, and what it omits.
November 27th Update – My primary concern; Stock index targets closing in; Advice for living in a dishonest world
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-Dow within a baby’s breath of my year-end target of 28,500
-The differences between the Bernanke Fed and the Powell Fed. These differences are what concern me. The current Fed seems to be more disingenuous, while not even caring what we think anymore. The global investor has been conditioned properly.
-The dollar and bonds and commodities discussed
-The domestic economy looks good as the U.S. (with the reserve currency privilege) can spread its deficits far and wide to all four corners of the globe.
-I do not know of anyone who is bearish on gold; even the mainstream is extremely bullish. I like gold, but have grown very concerned about a short-term wash out with the most overbought conditions in history.
-What I am doing right now with my personal finances
-When it comes to money and business, don’t believe anyone anymore. The world is full of dishonesty, gaslighting, and disingenuity. I can’t even trust title companies anymore. The global population has gotten much more dishonest in the past 20 years that I have been investing in real estate. Ten page contracts are now 40 pages long, because most people lie when it comes to money. The only words that matter to me are what’s contained in the Bible, and I reconcile everything else off that. You must do the same if you are to survive.
November 25th Update; Investment real estate, MMT is MMR, the dollar and stocks, a warning for the gold bulls
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-I try to answer the many questions I have received regarding investment real estate. What I currently see and what I currently recommend.
-Why I think the United States still offers the best opportunities, especially for Canadians who are willing to be proactive managers
-The Fed and MMT scare mongering. MMT is MMR – modern monetary reality. A discussion of a CNBC article about MMT. The mainstream and alt-financial mislead the readers into thinking MMT is like what took place in Weimer Germany.
-The Fed and ECB must be concerned that the dollar is still holding up, even after the massive Fed stimulus. The globe knows what’s coming.
-Soviet-style propaganda against the dollar. What will happen if the dollar collapses? The Russian economy would be decimated on a much worse level than the U.S. Look at what the ruble has done this decade vs. the USD
-A huge red flag for gold. The most overbought COT report in history. Open interest, spec longs, and commercial shorts all rise again as prices fade further. A potential for a massive sell-off is in the works. The financial sky is not falling, but try telling that to those who hold the record net long SMALL spec positions. Keep in mind that Joe-six pack’s net long is contra’d by the large commercials.
-The grim reality; I personally know that the alt-financial analysts are out of their realm. Those who know what is really going on are too busy making money working for the system. They are not going to bother telling the alt-financial junkies what to do, and those who follow the alt-financial media wouldn’t listen anyway. Even though these “stopped-clocks” credited themselves with correctly identifying last decade’s bust, they were the least able to take advantage of it.
November 15th Market Update – Same old, same old, no surprises
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-Tame inflation data and positive Fed spin are supporting all asset markets.
-The dollar looks firm, considering the massive monetary stimulus. What will happen when the ECB needs to crank it up? This isn’t monetary printing in the true sense, as the offsetting debt needs to be serviced, and the debt slaves who do not own income-generating assets are servicing it all.
-My theorized short-term pullback never materialized as stocks move higher and bond yields stay below 1.95% support (for bond prices).
-Gold looking anemic and cannot get legs. Let’s see the data this weekend. The markets and Fed dispelling catastrophe concerns keep it under lock and key.
-Housing still strong. Look at the Amazon effect in Northern VA. Arlington County list prices up 33% since the Amazon announcement. The entire DC area market is on fire. (I have a number of DC-area subscribers). I always said that DC real estate was a relative bargain and now the prices have begun to reflect that reality.
–Wealthier investors are big into cash, since they are worried about market catastrophe. They must be listening to the alt-financial media about a stock crash. As long as this is the case, I will take the contra.
–The Fed comes out with their Financial Stability Report and they thinks are just fine.
November 10th Market Update – The major markets analyzed; My predictions for the next couple weeks
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-For some listeners, I may have you drinking out of a firehouse on this one. Don’t look at the dire wealth disparity reports and conclude that things have to fall apart. This growing wealth divide is being intentionally manufactured. We need to plan to not be left behind.
-A preface: Recall the Saudi drone attacks on September 14th… Anyone buying oil and gold and shorting stocks off that news was punished. The traders who made the money shorted oil and gold overnight and bought stocks off the low. Always fight the primal urges and the calls from the alt-media.
-US bonds put into focus. What is going on with the 10-year? Some technical analysis. No worries in a managed bond market.
-The SPX and Europe Stoxx 600 analyzed. Guess where they are going? I do see some particular counter trend opportunities short-term domestically. Global stocks have been on fire all year. They know where the world is going. So do we.
-The USD is creeping back up again. Not a good sign for those at the Fed who were hoping for a bigger drop. What will happen when Lagarde begins to dance to the Draghi tune?
-Why I own gold. We should be less concerned about the economy blowing up and more concerned with our personal lives blowing up.
-Gold had probably the worst week in 3-5 years on a technical basis. GLD tonnage continues to drop and the latest COT report is even more overbought than the prior one. It does not look good and a test of the rising 50-week mva is highly probable over the next couple weeks.
-Commodities in focus. For Americans, trying to take advantage of higher meat prices outside the U.S. is tough and anyone buying pork and hog futures has been beat up. What happened to corn? Getting beat with an ugly stick (as we expected).
-Commentary and observations on the power structure and where the global political power is moving.
October 24th Market Update – The current Fed policies explained and what they mean to us
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–The Fed keeps increasing their overnight and term lending, as well as providing a monthly POMO of $60 billion.
-These stop-gap measures will not solve the real problems; the U.S. government is consuming more than 100% of the world’s available credit. Thus, longer-dated bond purchases in permanent operations (QE) need to take place forever.
-The fact that the USD is holding up as well as it is tells me that there is still confidence in this system. The other central banks will have to ramp up their stimulus as well.
-Income-generating assets will be supported here. The only two concepts that will destroy this current scheme are a loss of confidence of the stimulus programs and higher inflation growth.
-If there is higher inflation or a loss of confidence, assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate would suffer, while commodities would benefit. Essentially, it would result in an unwinding of the market performances over the past decade.
-The global investing pool gets excited at the prospects of more QE. I know I do, as it helps support the prices of my assets. The QE programs have gone on for about 11 years now, so betting that confidence will crumble soon is hoping for an outlier event.
-Higher inflation will be the result of a loss of confidence, so they are both related to one another.
October 16th Update – Good opportunities still exist in real estate; My analysis and outlook
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I have a bunch of listeners who are always asking about real estate. I try to answer the many questions I receive and analyze the demographics and market dynamics. I analyze the investment numbers to show you what to look for when you invest. If you are peculiar like I am (I guess you are, since you are following my stuff) then you are not going to want to work for a corporation or the government, nor run a traditional business, because you will have to be beholden to a lot of easily offended stakeholders and customers. I grew up poor and this is why I live an austere lifestyle. The benefits of being self-sovereign are incalculable and worth living the simple life.
Real estate is all about money and time. The younger you are, the less money you need. However, if you are my age, you can always develop a cash flow into retirement age and you will be much better off for it.
A couple articles of interest;
The Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun
Lower mortgage rates are causing an epic housing shortage
October 13th Update – The Fed ramps up QE more quickly than even I anticipated; Prepare for the inevitable as stocks are already near all-time highs
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-The Fed “surprises” by announcing $60 billion/mo. in new Treasury purchases, while rolling over maturing portfolio. This was higher than my $50 billion/mo. prediction by the end of the year.
-The latest domestic inflation numbers and fading PMI data give the Fed cover to run massive QE operations. This past week, the PPI and CPI were weaker and the PMI data looks poor around the globe.
-By concentrating the buying on short-term durations, the Fed is addressing the Repo problems, while buying up new Treasuries to keep the United States, Inc. in business.
-The fact that the Fed reacted so quickly to the short-term funding problems shows that it will do whatever it needs to keep things moving forward.
-Longer-dated Treasuries sold off as it was expected later in the year that the Fed would begin to buy bonds. As of now, they have not announced any large scale long-dated purchases. This is temporary and the drops in yields will commence again.
-The other central banks will ramp up large QE programs as their inflation numbers look even lower than here in the U.S. Massive asset inflation will result
-In an over-indebted world, tariffs can actually be deflationary, because the tariffs work to undermine economic growth, and as the economy rolls over, demand fades and manufacturing data drops. Think of the global ISM and PMI data. With everyone in massive debt, trade problems can be deflationary.
-Be prepared for higher asset prices. The S&P 500 is only a couple percent below all-time highs. Global real estate and dollar-based assets are going to rise.
October 6th Update – Yields resume their decent; We better find a way to make money in this system, because the alt-financial media will not show us
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-As expected, bond yields resume their downward trend. Despite the ECB talk of higher fiscal spending, bonds yields have, once again, begun to fall.
-The only thing that will collapse this system is higher than expected inflation. That’s it. The central banks can work monetary policy to go fully negative for years. Income-generating assets will continue rising in price.
-The student loan debt situation is not a debacle. It was carefully planned to keep the younger generations in debt slavery, so they didn’t cause higher inflation as monetary printing went parabolic. It’s impossible to create inflationary spikes when the world is servicing its debts. STAY OUT OF ALL DEBT THAT DOES NOT GENERATE OFFSETTING INCOME.
-Although my predictive accuracy is much higher than anyone else in the alt-financial media, the negative comments I receive are about 4x as much as the positive ones. People do not want to hear what I say.
-Listeners of the alt-financial media have an easy excuse to not work for the future. Why bother if things will fall apart? I am taking out another commercial line to pay off higher yielding ones and to buy another cash flow generating property.
-I don’t write for other websites anymore, because I am directed to write stuff with which I don’t subscribe. Moreover, the site editors heavily edit my work, because their readers won’t agree with it.
-I have never been offered an interview opportunity in the many years of my writing. Talk show hosts are disingenuous, because they have things to sell. Truth is always secondary; never forget that.
–Here is a guy with many times more subscribers than I discussing where bond yields are going when the US 10-year touched 1.9%. Of course, he was completely wrong.
-I have been correct, because I know who is in control. If you are in your 20-40’s and believe the alt-financial narrative, I strongly suggest you redirect your mindset. When you are my age and older, you will no longer have the stamina to begin building something. The alt-media keep us from planning for the future.
-I see what has happened to those my age and older who bought into the Bill Cooper and ZeroHedge collapse stuff going back 10-30 years. They are on disability, broke, and asking others for help. They didn’t build anything. They traded the wrong way and invested in the worst performers.
September 24th Update – Repo operations are not working; Massive QE is needed to reliquify a system that the governments are sucking dry
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-The governments are sucking the banking system dry and the unprecedented need to reliquify the system remains. The pressures are mounting, despite dropping longer-dated yields.
-The Fed cannot yet admit this, but eventually the Fed will have to begin more massive rounds of QE. I estimate that bond purchases will have to rise to about $50 billion a month.
-The Fed is regularly providing upwards of $75 billion in short-term liquidity in the repo market. The only solution will be massive QE. The repo operations didn’t work last decade and they won’t work now.
-The dollar continues to firm as the demand for dollars grows.
-Gold is rising as more people see impending potential crisis. It reminds me of 2005-2006.
-60-70% of the population has been left behind this decade. They made the worst financial decisions at the wrong time. They relied on ZeroHedge and other alt-financial “analysts.” These writers couldn’t make it in the big-time, so they turned to their blogs. many listened and lost out.
-The elites chose this route. They could have taken a number of other choices, but chose to perform QE and buy up the world instead. They will pursue this route until the bitter end, and this can last for years.
September 14th Market Update – Bond market analysis and central bank policies; My thoughts on the direction of gold and silver, stocks, commodities, and real estate
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UPDATE: This podcast was recorded before I learned of the Saudi Arabian drone attacks. Oil will definitely receive a bid, as will gold and silver
-Despite dovish monetary policy announcements, these are the three (four) reasons why bond prices tanked
- The ECB is encouraging profligate fiscal spending,
- The U.S. is not about to enter any type of recession and domestic inflation is running a little hotter than anticipated,
- Investment grade corporate debt issuance swelled over the past couple weeks
- It was only a matter of time, based on an extremely overbought condition
-After the demoralization of the global investor in the wake of the 2008 manufactured collapse, the global elite could have implemented a number of policies, but chose the current one. We have been running it for a decade and I look for it to continue for years.
-Gold and silver fall hard on historically overbought conditions. Where I think they will move.
-Stocks will be well supported as the one-way trade of buying bonds and gold and silver falls apart.
-Commodity analysis
Are Central Banks Losing Their Economic Clout?
Gold COT chart
Economic Calendar
Global rates and bonds
September 3, 2019 Update – Keeping perspective during troubling times
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-I follow the big picture. The fearful make the worst decisions.
-Advice on how to be positioned for any rough sailing
August 25th Update – Synthetic solutions to synthetic problems; I try to respond to a lot of emails
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-Many people ask me about recession and collapse. I see this continuing for years; all the way to eventual war. This past week and this weekend at the G7 summit, for the first time, President Trump crossed the line. His trade rhetoric reached a new level and is now irreversible. His calling Fed Chair an enemy of the state worse than Xi is too much for retraction.
-More thoughts on what the new world order currency will be when things finish spinning out of control.
-Why Donald Trump makes the perfect politician for the next phase of the new world order. The elites need to throw the concept of the nation-state into the trash heap of history, and Trump was the unknown quantity put into place to make that a reality.
-Trump would never have become president if he had been an elected politician previously. His true colors and personal instability would have manifested. No other politician would ever shamelessly embarrass himself like Trump can.
–David Ricardo and the concept of comparative advantage.
-Adam Smith and the Wealth of Nations.
-In theory, the international trade models have plenty of merit and I am not here to disagree with them. There are certainly limitations to them, especially if a nation’s objectives rise above just efficient consumption frontiers. It is vital that a nation maintain some sort of productive capacity.
-The engineers of the new world order have hijacked and exploited modern economy theory to suit their secret objectives.
-Economists refer to free trade as an excuse for the large multinational firms to exploit price differences between nations for shareholder profit. All nations are being leveled out, via the modern lie of free trade, into second world nations.
-Tell me how free trade models help the United States when the U.S. runs monthly trade deficits of $50 billion.
-Gold analysis. My thoughts about the longer term.
August 15th Update – Profiting from the inevitable; With negative rates, we will pay the elites to buy up the world
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-Don’t believe the hype. Socialism can continue, and will continue to grow in popularity. Fully two generations have effectively rejected biblical teachings, so this new monetary and economic system is what the vast majority of people desire. The remnant can only look on now as observers.
-In a world of deflationary negative yields, wages will face growing downward pressure. Concomitantly, asset prices (housing) and costs of living (things that cannot be imported) will rise.
-Only the generated fear of catastrophe is what the elites need to keep this system going. There is no need of real crisis, and in fact, any organic crisis could set back the new world order agenda. Any true uncertainty would be a hindrance to the elites.
–Martin Armstrong doubles down on his erroneous predictions.
-The drop in sovereign rates have little to do with impending recession. Don’t get caught up with all this talk of inverted yields and the reasons why bond prices are rising while yields fall.
-With negative rates, we are paying the elites to buy up the world
-My blog is designed to get the reader/listener to redirect his/her mindset when it comes to this new world order agenda
-Spotting opportunities to keep ahead.
August 7th Update – Answers to emails with more macroeconomic analysis; Where the world is heading and what I plan to do
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-I received about a dozen emails regarding yesterday’s podcast. I attempt to answer their concerns.
-My plans for a post economically-collapsed world. How I intend to survive.
-My macro-investment thesis. How to make money going forward. How I am preparing for a world of negative bond yields. The Fed will eventually have to cut to zero and below.
-Bond yields continue to fall in anticipation of what is to come; not from any upcoming recession. Australia is the first former Commonwealth to have their 10-year yield drop below 1%.
-If the central banks stopped buying debt, the governments would go bankrupt in 3-4 months. Yields would skyrocket.
-The U.S. may not be the best country in the world, but at least it is probably the cheapest when compared to a person’s income.
-As a saved man for about 18 years I have seen many articles written about the demise of the U.S. and Western culture. Articles written today could have a 2005 timestamp. I recall the dozens of hours of Bill Cooper’s shows from the late 80s-early 90s speaking of the same thing.
-The talk of the Satanic NWO agenda only works to externalize the hierarchy. Don’t get too caught up with it. I notice much of this discussion comes from non-Christian websites.
-Yuri Bezminov’s 30-year old interview discussed the demoralization of the West, not just the United States. Of course, the KGB didn’t cause that, but it is clear that the agenda was implemented.
-Trump is single-handedly causing this ongoing global financial market volatility. If Trump kept his mouth shut, the Fed wouldn’t have raised last year and would have already cut 50-75 bps. The cuts have little to do with the U.S. economy and all to do with propping up the global financial system.
-Indeed, I am beginning to loathe Trump, and it has nothing to do with the Democrat philosophy. He drove ALL his former companies into bankruptcy and is now working his “art of the deal” mindset on the rest of the world. I believe his disingenuous enablers are telling him what to do, which will work to disgrace those the mainstream media have conflated with his agenda (e.g. patriot media).
August 6th Update – Macroeconomics and the reality of monetary and fiscal policies; Why the U.S. enjoys a lower cost of living
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-A response to an email asking me if the relatively low house prices in most areas of the U.S. will persist.
-How the United States exports inflation and imports deflation. An explanation of this dynamic in action and how the U.S. trading partners are impacted.
-Why housing costs are so astronomical in the poorer nations. The numbers don’t lie; Americans have it easy when compared to the rest of the world (See how your city stacks up and try not to cry). The poorer the nation, the more costly housing becomes for the locals.
-Why house prices around the world directly reflect how the U.S. trading partners subsidize the costs of living in the U.S.
-Why grocery prices in the U.S. are much lower (with respect to local wages) than in virtually all other nations.
-An explanation of why the percentage of households that become rental dwellings will rise over time. Since many items cannot be imported, the growth in house prices and professional services reflect true monetary inflation. These will rise higher than wages over time. Property taxes rise higher and the costs of house services, which cannot be imported, escalate and make the prospect of home ownership more remote for a higher number of people. Tax policies punish owner-occupied real estate holders to the benefit of investment housing.
August 5, 2019 Update – My observations; Recent events seem to be part of the larger agenda
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-The Chinese yuan falls below 7 on the USD. This market action is just another reason why the yuan will never become an important reserve currency in its present form. The Chi Comm system is centrally-planned from stem to stern and any firm of importance is Party controlled.
-Trump was not alone when he formulated his August 1st tariff tweet storm. According to a Zero Hedge article, which named its sources, Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin (Skull & Bones); NEC Director, Larry Kudlow; and Trump’s COS were present when Trump formulated his tweets.
-This indicates that Trump has less latitude than previously thought. He is serving an important function and is there to create international tension. He is the figurehead that takes the blame. If the world will eventually go to war, it is vital that Trump get reelected.
-When the markets fall to the bottom of the monthly trading channel, the TPTB have breakthrough trading talks. When stocks hit the top of the range, the trade talks fall apart.
-Problems in the Fed seem to be rising. Jerome Powell is in over his head and is vulnerable to personal attacks from Trump. The other former Fed chiefs are all members of the tribe and would never be on the receiving end of Trump’s ire.
-The management shakeup at the NY Fed couldn’t have come at a worse time.
-Traditional Fed shill, Bloomberg, publishes peculiarly-timed articles regarding the low morale and poor management in the New York Fed Branch. The NY Fed carries out the market operations and is the most important branch in the Fed system.
August 2nd Market Update – Our macro investment thesis remains intact; What I see coming
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-Recall my dour assessment of commodities two-three months ago. Despite many calls to the contrary at the time, commodities have faded as the dollar firmed and the global economy softened.
-Lower interest rates and a strong dollar are a one-two knockout punch to commodities.
-The only commodity I have recommended all year has been gold. Gold is rising despite a strong dollar as this is a reflection of investor doubt over central bank policy and the lack of confidence many have in Jerome Powell.
-The XOP fell hard at market open, while stocks initially rose. This told us that oil’s next move would be down. Oil tanked later in the day.
-Investors who believe in bursting bond bubbles, out-of-control central bank policy, and a falling dollar will continue to lose money.
-Investors who believe that the central banks are suppressing bond yields, because they are trying to stimulate the economy and increase aggregate demand will make the wrong investment decisions. These investors will continue to be confused.
-If we understand why the central banks are engaging in these monetary policies then investing is much easier and more profitable. It has less to do with growing the economy and raising inflation growth, and more to do with keeping the existing global hierarchy in control. The prime directive is to keep the governments in business under the current system. It has plenty of room continue.
-Fed Chair Powell is in over his head and was chosen by President Trump, because Trump sees weaknesses in Powell that he can leverage. Powell’s decisions have been influenced by Trump’s behavior, but Trump would never be able to get away with what he does if Bernanke, Greenspan, or Yellen were Fed heads.
-Trump started this tariff stuff again, so he can get the Fed to drop rates again.
July 22nd Update – A social commentary and why there will be no collapse for now
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-Zero Hedge began posting on Twitter back in January 2009. Almost to the month of the market bottoms. Was this by coincidence? Hardly.
-A commentary of the false Christian prophets who are very influential over the unwitting Christians who think we need a collapse and war to get the new world order in place.
-These false prophets could be Freemasons who redirect their followers into looking for a catastrophe, while the real catastrophe has been degrading humanity daily for decades.
-The central banks will keep things moving forward. Their owners are achieving more by maintaining this illusion of prosperity. Besides, they will get the blame.
-I look for higher asset prices. Regardless of whether the Fed lowers by 25 bps or 50, the trend is higher. Don’t kid yourself. If the Fed drops by 50 bps, look for the Dow to pop 500 higher.
-All nations are looking to the Fed. Even the African nations are desperate for the Fed to drop rates.
-I never read in the Bible that we need an economic collapse to get the end time government in place. In fact, I read biblical descriptions of the last day’s economy and they read like what we are currently experiencing.
-Real estate bargains still are around. Don’t buy in the bubble areas. Nations like Canada and Australia have allowed foreigners to more easily launder money into real estate than in the U.S. Here, price/income multiples and price/rent numbers domestically still look reasonable, if you can tune out the likes of Zero Hedge and Steve Quayle. I can still buy condos that generate a cap rate of at least 10%, with tenants making 100k/year.
-At some level, I have to conclude that based on their behavior and Delphi techniques, the internet prophets are doing the work of their father, the devil. Many must be Freemasons. I am sure that many of my readers know who they are. They have been wrong for years, yet they have a following who possess a hard-to-break confirmation bias.
-This unwitting base has gotten poorer and poorer. It has little to do with the fact that they follow Jesus, and more with the fact that they are being duped by charlatans.
July 6th Update – S&P & Dow futures break 3k and 27k; Markets holding despite strong jobs report; All eyes on Powell next week; new ECB crew to carry on stimulus
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-As predicted, the S&P futures broke 3,000. Despite Friday’s strong domestic employment report, they remain very close to that number.
-The Dow futures briefly traded above 27,000. More to come. Now that the S&P futures hit 3,000, I see Dow 28,500 as likely by the end of the year.
–Bonds across the globe traded lower as yields rose. This shows how big of an influence the Fed’s actions have on the rest of the world. Despite the strong employment report, yields did not rise as much as I feared.
–Jerome Powell speaks three times next week. Traders will take note of his House and Senate testimony on Wednesday and Thursday.
-The FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday afternoon, but I do not see them as a huge market mover. All will be paying attention to what Powell says about the employment report and his current path.
-Despite the strong employment numbers on Friday, the market traded off their lows. If the Fed doesn’t make a big deal about them, the markets will shrug them off and higher highs will come soon.
– Gold didn’t react as poorly as usual to a strong employment report. Rather than trading down all day, it rebounded $10 off its lows. This sets it up to trade higher tomorrow evening.
-Futures COT reports are delayed due to July 4th holiday.
–Bitcoin putting in a daily bullish pennant flag. I am still long here.
-Christine Lagarde has only one option available; carry on the same program of lower rates and bond buying. We said three years ago that the central banks can never stop stimulus. Although higher asset values lessen the immediate need to lower rates, eventually they have to step back in. The ECB can never stop, regardless of whatever Lagarde says.
-I feel bad for those who are trapped in their economic-collapse confirmation bias. Trying to fight this secular trend in interest rates will be nearly impossible. TPTB want higher asset values and will get them.