I have uploaded a market update for December 16, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen and look at the relevant links or you can listen on the link below. You can also right mouse click here to download the podcast.
-I have been using the weekly charts for most of my asset market analysis. The daily charts are not showing the complete pictures
-Some price predictions
-The charts could all be repainted with a hawkish US Fed announcement and press conference
-I anticipate a slightly soft tone out of the Fed. All the charts (S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA, oil, USD, US Treasuries) are at precarious positions and anything lending to a stronger dollar and much higher Fed funds rates in 2019 could put asset prices in jeopardy. The Fed sees what we see and will be careful.
-I don’t short the markets like last decade. They are all well-managed now and official intervention can destroy our trading accounts.
-My liquid net worth is still in cash. As a percent of my net worth, I don’t own all that much gold and silver anymore (3-4%). Gold and silver has suffered at the expense of everything else. I haven’t added.
-Technical analysis for stocks, oil, and metals. XOP hit 29 support way too quickly. If the the USD rises further, the drillers (who desperately need a weaker dollar) could fall hard as their balance sheets are called into question.
-Bitcoin thoughts. The futures market changed everything. People forget that miners were mining bitcoin below $1,000. If bitcoin continues to fall more miners drop out and the remaining ones can more easily mine. There is no support below $3,000 until we get to $1,500. The altcoins seem to be moving to irrelevance.