Thoughts about Martin Armstrong

Question:
You mentioned [Martin] Armstrong in your analysis in the past. I was reading your Thom Beecham articles and you referred to his work. Do you still rely on his ideas?

Answer:
After gold took a huge dump earlier this decade I searched the internet to find people who were correct in anticipating the historic drop ahead of time. This is how I stumbled upon Martin Armstrong and his work.

Previously, I never heard of him. I am not saying that he had the gold market totally correct, but he was close. I referred back to his prior blog posts at the time and he always allowed for wiggle room in case he was wrong, but for the most part his sentiment was bearish.

I found his work appealing at the time and it influenced some of my macro predictions, because his investment thesis was congruent with my analysis;

  • The hyperinflation that the majority of investors thought would appear from QE never would surface. The debt load would be deflationary.
  • The dollar would continue to receive a bid and get stronger as the global debt situation got more tenuous.
  • This would knock the wind out of commodities and especially gold and silver. (Notice gold has held up better vs. other commodities)
  • Dollar-based assets would continue to receive a bid, especially equities.

We see how this has worked out. The whole argument listed above hinged on a strong dollar. Without that one premise it is difficult to imagine this scenario playing out. Keep in mind that we don’t need a strengthening dollar, per se, but we need one in which the dollar is well-supported.

Why is this? Since the dollar is the reserve currency and there are so many more of them around the world, they would naturally seek dollar-based assets. As long as the dollar was supported in the global currency markets investors would feel safe parking them unhedged. This is what we see over five years later. It has helped to support the US economy at the same time.

In some respects, I disagreed with his analysis on real estate, which is why I invested heavily in rental properties earlier this decade. I am glad I did.

Where I disagree with Armstrong is when it comes to the talk of conspiracy. He rejects conspiracy for the global government on an a priori basis. I know this as I actually asked him back in 2015 during his Princeton conference. He holds everything up to cycles, and these current circumstance are like a repeat of history.

I agree with his premise in this regard; people are always the same, regardless of the period in history. I study behavioral economics and know that the boom/bust cycles in the markets will always persist. This is how I make money. People are rationally irrational and making rationally irrational investment decisions.

If you are reading my blog then you probably already know that this period in history is totally without precedent and that there is a conspiracy for world government and that there is a guiding hand that is moving us into a militarized new world order. But the populace are very complacent. I don’t seeing any uprisings. I am still waiting for the riots in the streets that many in the alt-media are predicting. I have been waiting for those since 2003 when I stumbled upon the conspiracy for world government.

Moreover, I publish everything freely and do not use scare tactics to get people to come to my site. I think I provide a valuable service for those looking to get wealthier over time. This is important to consider; if you and I are to persevere and help others in the remnant we need to become more financially self-sovereign. Don’t listen to those who say money is the root of all evil. It’s the love of money that causes all the maladies we see today. Last time I checked the pastors I gave donations didn’t ask me where I got my money from.