October 28th Update – Recommendations and Commentary; The US Fed dilemma may take care of itself if the US economy slows

I have uploaded a podcast for October 28,2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen and look at the relevant links or you can listen on the link below. You can also right mouse click here to download the podcast.

-Gold COT report normalizing and someone is trying to keep it below 1,250, but I think it will take it out. It is still oversold even with the large specs buying back their shorts. Fortuitous market volatility adding to its chances.
-10 UST futures not nearly as oversold as before. 10-year UST catching bid on volatility. This shows that the markets are not losing its glue. There is still logic and the USD is still the go-to asset. Short-term USD assets are up year over year.
-Major market 10-year sovereign yields fell over the past month.
-Keeping perspective; the major US stock indexes are still up year over year. The anglo-based stock averages are still doing better than elsewhere.
-The DJIA could test its 200 week mva and things will be fine. That is still higher than 20,000.
-Blast from the past – Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
-Be careful shorting a “sure” thing. If the Fed comes out and says anything that might be dovish anyone shorting the markets would be taken out to the woodshed. I have lived through 4-5 asset cycles in my 30 years as student and investor and have seen it all.
-Dollar-based assets continue to shine as I have been recommending since February 2013 on henrymakow.com. Why change now?
-Life is not like the Big Short. In order to short a market an investor needs money and if they continually lost money in their other investments over the past decade how much capital do they have to short?
-WTI touched its 50-week MVA. It could test the 200-week mva of 52.09. The XOP is leading the way. I got out of my XOP a little over a week ago (I said so last week) after research indicated that the shale plays continue to raise debt levels even with a higher oil price. The sell-side and investment banks are painting a rosy picture for the frackers, because they constantly need investment banking services. Their cost of capital is rising at the worst time.
-A background to my articles on Henry Makow’s site going back to February 2013.  Anyone taking my advice would have done well, but the articles were not popular. It was not what his readers wanted to see.
-There are so many opportunities to make tons of money in busted out sectors. Why take a high risk secular trade like shorting the stock market? Follow what the Carlyle Group does. Get involved in the busted out sectors when they appear. It’s best to wait for the opportunity.
-Cash is still king, as it has been since the last week of January.
-Below is a copy of an email response I sent out to a blog follower (former follower?) who thought I was foolish for not shorting the markets and perhaps a disinfo agent, since the others in the alt-financial media said that anyone telling the listeners to stay in the markets and not shorting were probably co-opted. I didn’t realize how prescient I was 5 1/2 years ago.

Go to henrymakow.com and do a search for Thom Beecham. He suggested I use the pseudonym as most his writers do. Since I was correct often Henry suggested I start a blog. I then started writing under my real name as I don’t really care anymore about being targeted for anything.

2/21/2013 article (gold was $1,610 when I wrote the article)

At the time in early February 2013 when I wrote this article I still owned several hundred ounces of gold. Read the excerpt below.

Early this past Sunday morning, I noticed that a collapse in gold and silver was in the works. There was a wall of sell orders at $1,650, right around the release of Thursday’s US unemployment numbers. The wall was huge – indicating official-sponsored activity. Once the $1632 support was taken out I fully hedged my physical gold and silver with several front month futures contracts. I still have them in place as of this writing.

Here is the April 8, 2013 article (gold was $1,573)

Joel Skousen is probably the most astute man I have come across regarding the New World Order. I agree with his assessment that this financial Ponzi scheme can be maintained for at least another 3-4 years, and war will be averted until the end of the decade. This will be the war that will provide the US Treasury with its force majeure to cancel debt.

Can you maintain your patience that long? Can your assets hold out that long? Can you survive $15-20 silver and $1,200 gold? [Silver was about $28 and gold was $1,573 when I wrote the article]  Do you need these assets to live? I am not saying it will get that bad, but it could. I know it will get a lot worse over the next several years. The worst aspect of all this will be the globalist-controlled media “gas-lighting” those who understand the truth, trying to get you to lose your sanity and convince you that the law of gravity has been repealed.

We all know what happened a couple days later

April 12, 2013 article – Henry asked me to keep writing… I wrote it as gold was just above $1,525 (I just happened to be 150% hedged and made more money in my commods account than I lost on my physical. Financially speaking, it was the luckiest day of my life. I rode those shorts down to the upper $1,300’s, by which time I was already out of 50% of my physical).

What the globalists are doing to Bitcoin, they are doing to gold. Gold just hit, but held the important 1,525 support level this morning. If gold breaks 1,525 it will fall to 1,410 within weeks.

My open short position is much greater than my long physical. This means I am profiting more when gold and silver fall. I locked in higher prices and ride the outsized short to even more on the downside profit.

July 2015

September 21, 2015 (DJIA was 16,510 at the time.) and the Fed hadn’t yet raised rates

Eventually, the FED will have to raise rates. I am of the opinion that it should have raised them up to two years ago.  They will have to raise them lest it be blamed for causing the upcoming US domestic stock market bubble. I only vouch for the US stock market. Based on short interest, put buying, investor sentiment, and situations similar to this in the past (1920s), I have to conclude we have a 50-60% shot of hitting Dow 20k sometime by end of 2017.