I have uploaded a Markets podcast for August 15, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the articles discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below.
-As the world attempts to deleverage, the US dollar will rise and that will put pressure on the emerging markets. This is the first casualty of a tightening US Fed policy.
-What else can we expect? Bernanke, Yellen, and Greenspan warned us in late January-early February.
-The central banks gave us the most accommodative policy in history for almost eight years and still has a relatively loose policy.
-The US Fed cannot raise faster as it battles the shorts on the 10-year and keeps an eye on the rising dollar.
-The US domestic economy is doing well when compared to the rest of the world. Domestic monetary policy objectives conflict with international objectives.
-My cash recommendation is still in effect. pay down higher rate loans. Build up your collateral position for the next bust.
-Look at the above chart; the elites know what is coming and are positioning themselves accordingly. We need to do the same.
-Don’t fall victim of the social proof tendency (doing and thinking what everyone else in the alt-financial media is discussing).
-So what if there is a currency reset? It is still incumbent on us to be as liquid as possible.
I have uploaded a Markets podcast for August 13, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the articles discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below.
-The head of Facebook’s blockchain division resigned from Coinbase’s board last Friday. It has been straight down for the alt-coins as many will go away when FB comes out with their crypto. BTC still has a place. The $6,000 BTC level will eventually give way as the bulls are furiously defending that Maginot Line.
-Pace of technological advancement in the crypto sphere is too slow and in order to get the blockchain as an underpinning of a future monetary system, a centralized management scheme needs to be implemented – and will be. Decisions will be made much more quickly, rather than by consensus of coin miners. They will be made unilaterally, much to the chagrin of the libertarians and those who lost their life saving buying into the crypto scam.
-Gold and platinum on sale and I added to physical at $1,200 and $800.
-Oil came back after a brief hard selloff. I added to a couple oversold P&Es
-It is the interest of National Security for the US to produce as much oil as possible domestically
-The problems in the emerging markets are to be expected as the tighter US Fed policy is a direct cause. The globalist mouthpieces warned us of impending hard unwinding. Bernanke, Greenspan, and Yellen all told us early this year that things could become unglued. The EMs are always the first to get hit.
-Analysis of Turkey’s situation. Just a corrupt and inefficient government falling victim to the Fed unwind. Perhaps Erdogan should listen to the globalist mouthpieces.
-Erdogan and Trump following script to drive a wedge between secular Turkey and the US and drive it into the arms of the Soviet/Sino alliance. I think of Ezekiel 38-39.
-The USFed needs to raise rates, but it must keep the Fed funds rate low as it battles the shorts on the long-end of the yield curve. The Fed is keeping accommodative policy not because they think the economy is weak, but because they cannot tell us they are working with the US Treasury in the futures market to keep the 10-year yield below 3%.
-Armstrong screaming we need a currency reset. Do we? You can pay $10,000/yr for his services. He has a whole lot of fear to sell. Even if we get a “currency reset” or whatever garbage he is proposing, what does that mean? We had one in 1944 and in 1985 and the average guy on the street saw barely a thing.
I have uploaded a trading and investing podcast for August 11, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the articles discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below.
–Assets discussed: Gold, platinum, oil, stocks, bonds, real estate, oil P&Es, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar.
-Discussion of Barron’s article, New Era for Markets is Here. And It’s Not Just Because of Trump
-Matthew 25; The collapse talkers are like the steward with the one talent who buries it.
-Trump is very useful to the globalists. The manufactured alt-right’s concept of who the globalists are is completely misguided as Trump has been molded to lead the world in the desired direction. He is helping the elites to consolidate their power and wealth.
-I do not see any collapses anywhere. Why have one? There is no need of one. Only the fear of collapse allows the agenda to move forward. Only the fear of another 9/11 allows the tyranny to grow.
-My somber real estate analysis should not preclude an investor with a long-term time horizon from getting involved.
-My goal is to have the listener become self-sufficient financially (like I already am). If the listener is polluted by collapse rhetoric he or she will be paralyzed by learned helplessness.
-The Chinese are not forcing a yuan devaluation. National security issues, inefficient monetary policy, and macroeconomics are taking care of that.
-The dollar is well supported here. The petrodollar concept is a myth. The US economy performing well compared to other advanced nations. Short-term rates need to rise in the US, unlike in other areas of the globe. With the US the world’s top energy producer, why would the dollar suffer?
-Just because someone is banned from the private social media platforms doesn’t mean free speech is under peril. You and I are free to say anything we want as long as we do not threaten anyone.
-My views are not popular, yet I make money – enough to survive and prosper without any help or benefit. If I were wrong I would be losing money. The advice from the alt-financial writers punches the one-way ticket to perpetual poverty. If they are wrong repeatedly, why pay attention to them? I know, it satisfies your confirmation bias.
Note to reader:Redfin.com provides a wealth of useful housing market and related demographic data free for users. Go to Redfin.com Data Center for more information. Redfin is a national real estate brokerage and has direct access to MLS data, as well as insight from its real estate agents across the country.
The housing market hit a sudden and “significant” slowdown in the past few weeks that could continue in coming months, Redfin Corp.’s chief executive said Thursday afternoon.
Chief Executive Glenn Kelman reported that Redfin had pulled down its forecast after “an unexpected drop in Redfin’s bookings growth in the past three weeks, slowing traffic growth in a weakening real-estate market.”
I have attached some charts I put together from my February 28th financial update that demonstrate the typical behavior of the real estate market. It seems that housing sales fall first, prices fall second, and then this drop works to affect other markets as well (especially stocks last decade).
Keep this in mind. We have discussed on a number of occasions that the housing market does not necessarily respond adversely on a large scale to higher mortgage rates. The Unites States real estate market was buffeted by a regime of higher 30-year mortgage rates in the late 70’s early 80’s, but prices overall still rose. With higher long rates, we need to see what is causing them to rise.
Now, last decade’s actions by the US Fed caused real estate to fall as much of the mortgage origination business was tied to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). These mortgages were tied, at least indirectly, to the fed funds rate. As the USFed increased the Fed funds rate these ARMs became unpractical and the market eventually responded accordingly.
Tax policy changes have always affected real estate prices
We discussed in prior posts that Internal Revenue Code (IRC) changes to real estate have always affected the market. I analyze this in detail in my July 30th housing update.
I submitted to you that the latest round of tax cuts and IRC changes (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) are severely impacting the higher end of the real estate market. Major elements of the tax code changes affecting real estate include limiting deductions for state and local income taxes (SALT) and property taxes and further limiting the mortgage interest deduction.
As you can see, since the IRC changes were phased in this year, house sales and activity have slowed noticeably. Eventually, all residential markets will be affected by these IRC modifications. As higher-end RE falls, this will trickle down to the working class neighborhoods as well, which aren’t directly affected by the IRC changes.
“We aren’t entirely sure how much of it is the market and how much of it is us because our guidance is based on a slowdown that only occurred in the last few weeks. It was a significant slowdown. It may be that we have a good week this week and a good week next week and we can outperform it. But we are seeing a significant change.”
“My guess is that only some of it is driven by the environment. It is definitely changing.”
Chief Executive Glenn Kelman – Redfin
The MarketWatch article also discusses the observations and forecasts of Zillow.com. On Tuesday, Zillow reined in its revenue and earnings projections in the light of this sudden slowing in sales and overall activity.
Zillow also had issues after its earnings report earlier this week, falling 16.3% Tuesday after also announcing a forecast that was weaker than expected.
Anticipating the trend before it manifests is the way to stay ahead
There are cycles in every asset class and just because the US Fed and other central banks can indefinitely suspend the business cycle this does not mean we can’t anticipate changes in advance. We need a good understanding of Economics and an objective mindset, so that we can adjust our investment decisions. We need to account for the outside forces of central bank and IRC policy. However, all of this ostensible uncertainty provides the wise person with opportunity.
Let’s keep our powder dry, because as they say in the real estate business, the worm has turned.
(I provide a link to a YouTube video below that explains in detail the transformation of Alex Jones from 2008 to today.)
Alex Jones has only himself to blame
If you are a regular reader and listener of my posts, podcasts, and shows you already know my conclusions on how the patriot movement was undermined and destroyed from within.
Like other movements in the past (most recently the tea party movement), change agents were injected into the patriot movement by TPTB to erode and thwart the movement’s objectives. All the while the movement’s members become disillusioned and bewildered, never comprehending how they were done in by their own leaders. The FBI’s Operation Cointelpro may no longer be active, but the globalists still use its framework to bust apart growing grass-root campaigns.
Enter Alex Jones; master change agent and most likely a Freemason. The globalists gave him the platform, the notoriety, and talking points, so that he could misdirect and self-destruct; taking down the entire manufactured alt-right movement in the process.
I no longer listen to Alex Jones on a regular basis, but from what I do see in my daily research, the social media platforms were given no choice but to ban AJ. His attacks on politicians, public figures, and various groups became more pronounced and threatening. One of AJs YouTube rule violations involved claims of slander during his $6 million children’s custody battle. He also threatens politicians if they oppose President Trump. If I were an official for YouTube or other platforms I would be concerned over legal liability.
Here’s the bottom line; Alex Jones is no longer the personality he once was. Prior to about 2008, he was firm in his belief that there was little difference between the left and right and that both were controlled by the elite. He embraced tenants of the liberal agenda when it promoted the objectives of the patriot movement. Obviously, he has wandered away from his old philosophy. He acts like a compromised and well-paid shill for an agenda he cannot make public.
One goal of the globalists is to confuse anyone who attempts to discern the true enemy. Another goal is to get everyone glued to their computer screens, whether it be on social media or on AJs websites and services. This promotes learned helplessness and apathy. The globalists do not want us empowering ourselves. They do not want us becoming self-sovereign; debt-free, healthy, and independent of the system. I submit that anyone who has followed Alex Jones for the past decade and has taken him at his word is still largely in the dark and ineffectual as a potential threat to the globalists. In fact, Mr. Jones currently poses no real threat to the globalists and has not for at least the past 5-6 years.
A YouTube video that analyzes the transformation of Alex Jones
With this said, I wanted to pass along a link to a YouTube video I came across yesterday from a German citizen, Alexander Benesch, who posted his analysis on the transformation of Alex Jones on his YouTube channel, RecentR. Mr. Benesch broadcasts primarily in German, but he is also fluent in English.
I understand that there are many seeking the truth who believe Alex Jones to be worth supporting, but I have an obligation to pass along what I uncover – regardless of how sobering it may be to the reader.
If we are to truly subvert and weaken the power of the NWO, we must strive to be self-starters, debt-free, independent thinkers, self-sovereign, healthy, and free of government dependence. I also recommend following the precepts of the Bible. People who are chasing their tails and listening to change agents for their news and views pose no threat to the architects of the new world order.
I have uploaded a podcast for August 9, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the articles discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below.
-History has shown that modifications to the tax codes and changes in government policy tend to impact real estate and other asset markets more profoundly than changes in economic conditions, including movements in long-term mortgage rates. Why is this? Investors always underestimate how the government can distort the supply/demand curve.
-The Trump administration, as part of a crackdown on certain US investments made by Chinese companies, is set to snatch a majority stake in Manhattan’s 850 Third Ave.
-This is the first move by the Trump White House under CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investors in the United States – to seize foreign real estate interests.
-With respect to investing there is absolutely no difference in the “left” and the “right.” In fact, with most issues, there is no difference. Both sides use government when it suits their interests.
-Donald Trump was elected while beholden to Chinese and German lenders, in clear violation of the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause.
I have uploaded a financial update podcast for August 8, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the charts discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below. These ideas are as of 9:30 EDT
-Trading and purchase updates and recommendations for gold, silver, and platinum
-Is the 10-year UST yield about to explode? The COT and trading action say otherwise
-The cryptocurrency market continues to plumb new depths. Looking at the sad alt-coin action we are in for a world of hurt (if you are long)
-There is a special place reserved in hell for people like Charlie Lee of litecoin. He realized untold profits on the backs of his followers. If you are following people like Charlie Lee you need to realign your thinking. Add him to the trash heap of disingenuous alt-financial writers and copywriters spreading impending catastrophe.
I have uploaded a financial update podcast for August 8, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to get the links to the articles discussed and to listen, or you can listen on the link below.
The consolidation of wealth and power in the stock market has been immense and has taken decades;
-In 1975, there were 8,000 publicly-traded companies. In 2015, there were less than 3,700.
-In 2015-dollars, 61.5% of these companies in 1975 had assets below $100mm. In 2015, 22.6% had assets below $100mm.
-In 2015, the 200 largest companies, by earnings profits, generated ALL the stock market earnings profits. All the other companies lost money in aggregate. Earnings and power have been consolidated into a tight group of companies.
This consolidation of power and wealth is a prerequisite to promulgating any new system. It makes any new system much easier to implement as you and I will have no say. Government power has been transferred to the national level.
Currency wars? The problems with the yuan have more to do with Macroeconomics 101 than a currency war. The manufactured tariffs situation will lead the nations into the direction of an appearance of a currency war without having to be proactive in causing it.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the controlled mainstream shill that GATA, the gold bugs, and collapse-lovers embrace is out talking about the economic wars that China is proactively waging.
A listener of the podcast is predicting that bitcoin may have put in its all-time high last December. I do not disagree. The crypto shills all predicted that the bitcoin futures market was going to be a big booster to the crypto sector. We can see that bitcoin put in its all-time high almost to the day of the futures market opening. The only coin I guarantee has a future is bitcoin.
Fallacy of opposition – Alex Jones is fighting a manufactured confrontation against his stated enemies, who put him in his position in the first place. He has made the patriots look like buffoons and is throwing his followers under the bus. He has politicized basic constitutional rights, such as the first and second amendments. Bill Cooper was assassinated and AJ was installed in his place. Both talk down the Bible however, while claiming to be Jesus-men.
Jamie Dimon was out this past weekend talking down US Treasuries; he is predicting a 5%-yielding 10-year Treasury. We need to keep our powder dry for the next cycle and destruction in wealth.
Gold is a good inflation indicator IN THE LONG-TERM. Gold has gained 7.3% per year since 1968, but its ascent is managed to make it look like a speculative commodity.
The ChiCom government would rather use the US dollar
I continually come across news articles and research that illustrate how important the US dollar is to the facilitation of global financial transactions. At about 63% of all currency reserves, the US dollar continues to demonstrate its powerful position as the world’s defacto reserve currency. Even our manufactured enemies choose to use it over their own flawed currencies. Why is this? There is nothing else that comes close to replacing it.
Road and Belt Initiative is financed with US dollars
I came across a Bloomberg article from July 30th, titled, The $500 Billion Market the World Never Thought It Would See, which discusses how the issuance of USD-denominated debt has become instrumental to companies building out the “Belt and Road” initiative (BRI)—a grand plan that envisions deepening trade and investment ties with countries across the Eurasian landmass and beyond.
China used to rail against the outsize role of the U.S. dollar. But in a major turnaround, the world’s second-biggest economy has started embracing the currency of its larger rival.
Chinese companies and banks—and even the government—sold bonds denominated in dollars at a record pace last year, and underwriters expect that growth to continue for years. The roughly half-trillion-dollar market has two key attractions for China’s borrowers. For some, it’s an easier place to raise cash than at home—where regulators are cracking down on leverage. For others, dollars are simply easier to use to fund acquisitions and investments abroad.
The irony of using dollars to fund a globalization project that helps counter President Trump’s “America First” doctrine is all the richer coming nine years after China blasted the global financial system’s overreliance on the greenback.
In the depths of the global financial crisis, then-People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan called for the creation of a new unit of exchange “disconnected from individual nations” and designed according to rules. The heads of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve swiftly rejected the March 2009 call, assuring a dead end for the proposal at the one institution capable of overseeing a global currency: the International Monetary Fund. (As the IMF’s largest contributor, the U.S. essentially holds veto power over major decisions.)
As part of China’s yuan-internationalization campaign, China built a yuan-denominated bond market and an off-shore version of its currency in Hong Kong. But, a botched devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 roiled global markets and Chinese authorities put the brakes on the internationalization project. Increasingly strict capital controls, to shut down an exodus of domestic funds, diminished interest in the yuan offshore market.
We need to understand that there is currently no replacement to the US dollar; the Chinese government’s actions affirm this. The irony is that the trillion dollar US government deficits have helped to provide the needed liquidity to enhance the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. The global central banks’ QE programs have drained the needed liquidity from the global-bond collateral marketplace, so, at least for the intermediate-term, the reckless deficits and socialist spending are providing the bonds that are necessary to reflate the global economy and the asset markets.
I would rather rely on mainstream business news sources over the alt-financial media
The bottom line; given the choice of using either the mainstream news outlets or alt-financial media for my business news, I would take the mainstream any day. Although our monetary and financial systems are satanic and corrupt, the populace who use them are only its reflection. So, while the alt-financial media continually preaches collapse, they need to comprehend that the system has already transformed itself into the system that the world as a whole has chosen. We may be on the outside looking in, but we need to move forward and accept this new reality.
It seems that the writers and personalities in the alt-financial media are the only people who do not think the Chinese yaun is toxic. The Chinese do not even want to use it.
Welcome to the New World Order; We are already here.
I have uploaded a Markets update podcast for August 1, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below.
-The full court press in the MSM to denigrate real estate is in high gear. Recall Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke earlier this year talking down commercial real estate.
-These trends take time. Don’t be impatient for immediate Schadenfreude.
-The globalists gain nothing by having a collapse right now; the central banks will get the blame.
-Manufactured nationalism will get the blame for any financial market problems, but we still have a few years left for that to simmer to a boil. That will make a great excuse for war, but the primary nations are not ready.
-We still have not seen currency wars; there has been a lot of hyperbole, but we are not yet there.
-Does there need to be a collapse to get the NWO fully in place? I think only the fear of a collapse will get us there. The globalists will remind us of a possible 2008 scenario and the the world will agree to whatever is proposed – even the mark.
-As long as investors are trying to unwind debt obligations the USD will remain supported. Buy it on dips.
-Corporations and governments are backing away from the hype of blockchain, as the reality sets in that it is still too primitive a technology.
-If the USD remains firm, gold will struggle. Own gold if you live in a nation with poor monetary policies. Own it as unencumbered net worth.
-As long as stocks like AAPL respond to good earnings stocks will remain elevated here.
-Stocks look good as there is no where else to go with money. As long as there are major central banks buying back sovereign debt the yield curve will remain flat.
-If things fall apart here the USFed can always crank up another program.