I have uploaded a new market update podcast for April 22, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
Who says we weren’t warned? Many people claim to know catastrophe looms, but they go broke waiting for it to happen. We need to know precisely in order to stay solvent. This has been simmering on the back burner since late January.
-Since late January (1/26) 10-year UST prices have fallen and yields have moved up 30 bps. We are about to move above 3%. The elites warned us.
-What are the implications of a rising yield curve? I do not see imminent inversion as inflation is rising
-Greenspan warned us on January 31st. We are in a bond bubble and the US Fed policy is forcing its unwind. Done to accelerate the process.
-Yellen and Brainard both talked about extremely high commercial real estate prices. By extension they are talking of bond yields as commercial RE is priced more objectively. Residential real estate is vulnerable here. Supply can appear out of nowhere, especially in the emotional market of residential real estate. Investors are stretched and rising yields can force liquidations.
-US mortgage rates are the highest since late 2013.
-Since late January, I have been in all cash, except for short-term trading positions
-I have no pension or defined contribution plan assets. I know what’s coming. I place my money in investments I have control over.
-S&P 500 futures are stretched here as spec shorts are at historic highs. Something has to give. Short covering rally? Based on chart and market action stocks look tired. It could be stock longs are just hedging.
-Oversized spec short position in the 10-year UST futures persists
-USDX forming a huge bear flag since late January and another down leg looks possible. If yields on longer dated treasuries move up here the USD can see further downside
-Weak dollar is a result of poor monetary policy.
-Gold can’t get above 1362 on a close. Silver trying to break out. Inflation measures increasing?
-Commentary of yesterday’s blog post. The governments will raise taxes and take the pensions before they introduce a new system. The average person will lose big. Pension nationalization is taking money from the worker and reimbursing the government for the elites raping the system. It’s just disguised wealth consolidation.