2018 July – December Archives

December 22nd Market/Investing Update – Behavioral psychology and economics; Making the right decisions; Market updates with predictions To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -In the last few months, I have observed a tremendous increase in the amount of pre-programmed gloomy talk coming from the MSM. I include Bloomberg and CNBC. The Alt-financial media is irrelevant as it has been recommending shorting the stock market since the May 2010 “flash-crash.” I tune out the alt-financial press. -the Same owners of the MSM who own the alt-media as well as social media also control central bank policy. They are clearly steering the hive-mind consensus of the population into accepting a protracted economic downturn. -The psychological techniques of Edward Bernays have been perfected and the Synagogue of Satan is selling us economic catastrophe the same way they sell us cars. -Manufactured instability with Trump and Powell leading the way. -The USDX remains of concern. If Fed policy deviates too far from economic stability we could see the dollar fall like in 2007/2008. -Imagine the wholesale raping of society that will take place as the central banks appear as our saviors. -Why I recommended cash in late January. I look at how the ex-Fed chiefs all began to talk down the markets. The Fed chiefs who all decade were loathe to identify asset bubbles, began to trash talk market valuations. All at the same time, the Fed has demonstrated an arbitrarily hawkish policy. -I have to conclude on some level that Jerome Powell is following a script and has little room to deviate. -The level of the Fed funds rate and the amount of balance sheet unwind is less important than the rate and speed of change. The Fed seems intent on a fast tightening in the face of accelerating credit market deterioration. It kept rates at 0% for at least seven years and now it is raising without regard to impending disasters, especially in the various credit markets. -Psychological analysis into the market behavior of a typical boom/bust cycle. -How to spot opportunity in a bear market -In the bottom of a bear market, there is little competition. In asset manias, competition is fierce. -Market demand is based on the number of participants who intend to buy. There really is little demand in real estate as many people who want to buy are incapable of owning. They either don’t have enough savings, can’t make enough money, are not responsible enough, or cannot psychologically own. They rely on social proof to make large purchase decisions and will always lose money. This is why the elites have developed social media – enhance the hive-mind. -It’s easy to financially rape the hive-mind society -Gold looks very good. The auspicious COT report looks to lend support. A test of 1,300? -Oil drop is so swift. I am concerned that we still have downside. Fed policy is destroying the drillers.  Short-term stock objectives prevail over the long-term. -A technical analysis of all three domestic stock averages. Where I think we are testing first. It seems like a fait accompli. -Bond market commentary and analysis in light of willfully ignorant Fed policy. Links to media and articles discussed- 10-Year UST COT Chart Gold COT Chart COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – December 21, 2018 Americans getting more pessimistic about the economy December 20th Market Update – Commentary of Stanley Druckenmiller interview and his discussion of the chronically misguided US Fed policy To download the podcast – right mouse click here Note: Druckenmiller does not understand the conspiracy like we do. He sees the US Fed policy as seriously misguided, but we see it as intentional. He does know that the Fed always gets it wrong and waits to benefit from the resulting asset busts. Interview date; December 18th. -Analysis and commentary of the in-depth Stanley Druckenmiller interview on Bloomberg.com -From beginning of interview to about the 5:00 mark; Something’s not right with the economy and the Fed is tightening into weakness -Eight years of free money and the Fed encourages the reach for yield. Pulling back late in the cycle. -Around the 12:00 minute mark; If the Fed continues to act hawkish and raise rates without pausing, financial rot may not have time to surface. If and when it does the Fed will have to act in a much more drastic fashion. Druckenmiller says 5x or 10x as much. -Imagine the types of programs the Fed will conjure up after things really fall apart again. The Fed is setting the stage for more unconventional monetary policy as the answer to the crisis it caused. -Druckenmiller marvels and wonders what the Fed is looking at in their analysis as they always get it wrong. -Powell is the white goyum. He will get the blame. -I tell you it is done by design. Druckenmiller says he looks to the bear market busts as opportunities to increase his wealth and we should, too. The eiltes engineer these boom/bust cycles to consolidate their wealth. -Fed looks at inflation and unemployment (both considered lagging indicators) to formulate policy. -The level of the Fed funds rate is less important than the rate of change. He says that the Fed should have started raising rates much sooner. -The balance sheet unwind is the most troubling as the Fed is executing it on auto-pilot. -He says that Powell is setting us up for a deflationary bust. When things fall apart we need to stand ready and act. December 16, 2018 Market Update – Stocks, bonds, interest rates, oil, XOP, gold, silver, USD, bitcoin; What will the US Fed say on Wednesday? Some predictions -I have been using the weekly charts for most of my asset market analysis. The daily charts are not showing the complete pictures -Some price predictions -The charts could all be repainted with a hawkish US Fed announcement and press conference -I anticipate a slightly soft tone out of the Fed. All the charts (S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA, oil, USD, US Treasuries) are at precarious positions and anything lending to a stronger dollar and much higher Fed funds rates in 2019 could put asset prices in jeopardy. The Fed sees what we see and will be careful. -I don’t short the markets like last decade. They are all well-managed now and official intervention can destroy our trading accounts. -My liquid net worth is still in cash. As a percent of my net worth, I don’t own all that much gold and silver anymore (3-4%). Gold and silver has suffered at the expense of everything else. I haven’t added. -Technical analysis for stocks, oil, and metals. XOP hit 29 support way too quickly. If the the USD rises further, the drillers (who desperately need a weaker dollar) could fall hard as their balance sheets are called into question. -Bitcoin thoughts. The futures market changed everything. People forget that miners were mining bitcoin below $1,000. If bitcoin continues to fall more miners drop out and the remaining ones can more easily mine. There is no support $3,000 until we get to $1,500. The altcoins seems to be moving to irrelevance. Links to media discussed – Gold COT chart 10-year UST COT chart COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – December 14, 2018 United States Rates & Bonds Global 10-year sovereign yields 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity   December 13, 2018 Update – Armstrong fumbles, the alt-media stumbles, and Trump mumbles
-Martin Armstrong covers his tracks. Calls the drop in sovereign yields a loss of confidence, but his big bang theory called for a rise in yields instead. -My views on current global politics, including the jailing of the Huawei CFO. –All major 10-year sovereign yields have fallen since the US Fed’s change in policy stance. Can’t be a total coincidence. -My response to yesterday’s Henry Makow article. I received a couple emails asking me to comment. -I have no hard-wired bias to see a strong dollar. If circumstances change and I anticipate a dollar collapse I will let you know. -What would the globalists gain from a collapsing dollar? -Blockchain not ready to replace money for at least a decade. -Negative rates discussed. -Draghi and ECB working with Dovish Fed to coordinate global monetary policy. These private central banks all work together -Wage earners in the US suffer under the Trump fiscal policies. 60% had no pay raise or lost wages. December 4th Market Update – Trade tensions strengthen the USD, Fed policy changes weaken it; Observations over the past couple days To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -Recall our conversations about the historically stretched short trades in the Gold and 10-year UST futures contracts. Most did not make money. By default, it pays to take the contra side when sentiment is that lopsided. Sometimes it takes time to be proven right. -Much of the recent changes in the UST yield curve stem from the ostensible shift in US Fed policy, not any tariff talk. The Fed’s intimation of a more dovish approach has been the catalyst for yields on the longer end to fall. Much of the proposed Fed fund rate increases are already reflected in the short-end. I would not get too caught up in yield inversions and what they mean. When everyone else is studying them they lose their significance. -The drop is yields should help relieve the emerging market pressures. never underestimate the elites’ ability of keeping things going. -Commodities got a lift since Wednesday when Powell spoke. Will it fade? I wish silver was performing better. -The USD has been supported in the wake of the trade talks as much of the excitement has waned. Trump is beginning his tweet storms again, undermining the hope of a trade breakthrough. -Stocks give back most of the trade talk pop. Weak shorts buy back into the excitement. -I just say to continue staying in cash. -Bitcoin investors are beginning to realize they made a mistake. I have been combing the crypto shill websites and social media and their tune is changing slightly. I am spotting contrition and regret. These observations are necessary to help locate a market bottom (we are not there yet). December 2nd Market Update – The markets provide good opportunities; Stocks, bonds, housing, gold, silver, oil, bitcoin To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -A trendless stock market that should be kept in perspective. The Chinese/US trade talks this weekend were a wash and should not greatly affect early week stock trading, though we could see a small bounce. -Bond analysis. Mortgage rates look supportive as they are now fully below 5% again. -Oil and XOP analysis with price points and technical analysis. My thoughts on where we could end up in the near future. -Why do the oil drillers and miners issue shares after catastrophe strikes? Are they that short-sighted? -Gold and silver analysis. Silver support levels. -Housing and real estate. Let’s not get too caught up in analyzing new home sales as these markets are highly managed. Working-class housing is in high demand. I get several phone calls and letters a week from investors asking me to accept all-cash offers. These investors were nowhere to be found early in the decade. -I am contemplating new real estate purchases. Where I recommend. -The bitcoin investor consensus is still too bullish, despite the $2,000+ drop. -Jerome Powell wasn’t as dovish as many think, but there was a relief rally in stocks as the shorts were forced to cover. December 1st Podcast – The Dunning-Kruger effect in the alt-financial media; “Experts” of low ability mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -An analysis of a financial “expert” on a GCN-sponsored show. People of low ability discuss the exact talking points that Ted Anderson (founder of GCN) wants to hear on his shows. It is full of non sequiturs, stopped-clock predictions, conflicts-of-interest, and analysis by the least skilled (the Dunning-Kruger effect) -Taking the contra; the most skilled are the most likely to underestimate their knowledge and assume that others are on the same level and that they will grasp ideas easily once told. -As described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the cognitive bias of illusory superiority results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from an external misperception in people of high ability; that is, “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.” -The most skilled financial analysts and economists are too busy making money to blog on the alt-financial media for free. -The same recommendations have been dispensed since the early 90’s. These people conveniently overlook their past errors in judgment. -I cannot use the argument from incredulity bias as a basis for my analysis and predictions, but the promoted financial analysts in the alt-media beg to differ. -A person who employs the  argument from incredulity bias shows a profound lack of understanding of the subject matter. -I do not disagree with much of the alt-media analysis of the Federal Reserve. My only contention with the prevailing lot of unskilled alt-financial analysts is my conclusion that the elites have a firm control over the financial system. -The prospect of collapse and loss of control are just illusions designed for conflict and future change. The future changes will, of course, benefit those at the top and those with the income-generating assets. -Future changes to the economic system will adversely impact the alt-financial media followers the most. -Alex Jones is still pumping out his partisan politics. It is worse than ever. -The financial analysts on GCN only parrot the controlled patriot party line. Link to podcast discussed – The Power Hour Nation Monday November 26 2018 Hour 1 November 22, 2018 Trading Update – A Thanksgiving message; Spotting potential bubbles; Technical and fundamental analysis; heuristics To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -In this age of godlessness, I thank Jesus for giving me a good life, free of despair and poverty, and full of wisdom, insight, abundance, and protection. -What I saw in the oil market last month. The first chart is the WTI oil futures price. The second chart is for the XOP ETF.
The XOP is an ETF of oil drillers and this gap down on 10/23 telegraphed that oil was going lower.
-Once we create wealth and make money, we need to hold onto it. In the internet economy wealth is created and lost much more quickly. The internet is not a wealth equalizer to most people. -Technical analysis can be very useful to all traders and investors. Some rely on it more than others. -As we gain experience we can develop an individual and unique set of heuristics that suits our mindsets and goals. -Many novices suffer from the hindsight bias. It is always much easier to profit in hindsight. -Never think that shorting the markets is a sure thing. Wiped-Out Hedge Fund Manager Confessed His Losses on YouTube. -Technical analysis is very useful. Some traders and investors use it exclusively, others use it as verification. Everyone is different and your mindset will determine with what you are most comfortable. -Our goal is to build wealth in these asset markets and hold onto it. We need to plan for the future as the NWO agenda moves forward, so making sound purchase and sale decisions will be the difference between living easier and struggling. -I don’t try to predict every market, but I try to identify the more sure bets. -Happy Thanksgiving! -Links to articles discussed The Great Oil Crash of 2018: What’s really happening   November 20th Market Update – The technical setups of Gold in 2013 and BTC today were very similar To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -Take a look at gold earlier this decade. Objective holders of gold should have taken action to sell.
The 1,525 level was very important to gold and the descending triangle formation was obvious in real time
-Take a look at bitcoin today. This chart shows me that BTC is not as decentralized as many believe.
Bitcoin held out at 6,000 longer than it should have held, thus the downside was that much more ugly. The large holders were trying to hold it up.
-Housing starts disappoint again. High-end real estate will continue to suffer, but working-class housing will always be in demand by investors, renters, and homeowners. -Government policy will always ensure a floor under the price of working-class housing. Builders cannot afford to build it. Liberal policy will always ensure a floor under rent rolls (open borders, and affordable housing programs). –Trailer parks are in the future for many baby boomers looking to downsize.As Australia’s Cities Get Crowded, Its Leader Targets Immigration -The equity markets are continuing to look poor, I am the only one saying there will not be a crash. -I have been saying since late January that cash is the only safe place. I have been in all cash since then and have been paying down credit lines. -Bitcoin and Dollar sell-off supports gold prices. -US Treasuries get a bid as yields fall. November 14, 2018 Market Update – Nothing is immune from the strong dollar, not even bitcoin To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -(Yay!) Gold tests $1,200 as predicted, but receives a bid this afternoon and it coincides with bitcoin’s collapse. -We predicted the rise in the cryptos last year and the subsequent collapse this year and made and saved ourselves tons of money. It was all determined by the chart and market action. The markets were too bullish and we knew the downside would be relentless. -If you invested in the cryptocurrencies and found all your knowledge and wisdom off the internet, how has that worked out? Has the internet been a wealth equalizer or a wealth extractor? -Blockchain has a future. Jamie Dimon says so. Ask yourself this question; Who made Jamie Dimon into the anti-bitcoin spokesman? Here’s a clue; it wasn’t Jamie Dimon. The crypto shilling was too outrageous and the bullish sentiment was about the highest I had seen since the dot.com bubble. -All of the hopes and dreams of bitcoin are already reflected in the price. -FUD has nothing to do with BTC’s collapse. The refusal of the crypto holders to see the truth about what they were holding cost them dearly. Think of the cognitive biases at play. -The people promoting bitcoin cash and the hard forks are scumbags. They are not your friends and love taking your money. -The markets are all correlated in the long-term. Nothing is immune from the strong USD, except the USD. -I wouldn’t short US equities. Even after the drop they are still greatly outperforming all other equity markets. -Treasuries and US equities receive a bid from the strong dollar. If the dollar were weak, yields would be higher and stock prices would be lower. -By controlling my confirmation bias and cognitive biases I was able to do an about-face on oil by October 23rd. I admitted my mistake about oil remaining firm and told you all that oil could test the 200-week mva of about $52.50. I saved a lot of money by admitting my mistake and remaining flexible. I keep my trading accounts intact.   November 12, 2018 Update – Gold, oil, stocks, bonds, currencies; Although biases are financially lethal most people don’t want to overcome them To download the podcast – Right mouse click here to download -Gold, silver, stocks, bonds, real estate, USD discussed. Thoughts and recommendations -Commercials adding to shorts earlier in the week in gold and UST 10-year. Specs add to oil shorts. -Oil may be the most oversold since early 2016, but any bounce will short-lived. It can’t fall forever though a test of the 100-week mva is due -Friday red candles on gold and silver look ominous -Democrats want to kick up deficit spending as they see it not causing inflation -Further discussion on biases -Analysis of conflict-of-interest in media -Ever wonder why commercials geared to adults get more childish? The marketing research groups have determined that adults like to be treated like children Links to articles discussed- 40% of the American middle class face poverty in retirement, study concludes Google Is Said to Be Shopping for More Real Estate in New York Breaking down the pricing behind Google’s Chelsea Market megadeal Jamestown Properties completes purchase of Chelsea Market Chinese leaders struggle to dispel stock market gloom Here’s what making your bed (or not) reveals about your personality Gold COT Chart 10-Year UST COT Chart USD Chart Global bond yields Global Commodity Prices November 9, 2018 Update – Important market update; the dollar continues to rise and the Fed needs to raise rates; The next bust is baked in the cake To download the podcast – Right mouse click here -PPI numbers and FOMC meeting results point to continued tailwinds to the USD. -Strong USD will undermine gold and oil. I see 200-week mva in sight for WTI. We suspected oil at 66 (test of 50-week mva) was very bearish as the gap down in XOP on 10/23 signaled doom. -Gold could drop below 1,200 on strong dollar fundamentals. -My trading long in gold has been liquidated. I held that long for weeks at under 1200, but the continued strong dollar completely undoes that. -The Fed has the next bust baked  into the cake. -The extra ongoing $500 billion in extra fiscal stimulus came at the worst time, and the Fed is now so far behind the curve that I do not recommend anything except short-term USD holdings. -Cryptocurrency analysis. BCH hardfork and the deceitful shilling. What a joke the cryptos have become. BTC does have a future. November 3rd Update – What’s up with oil? Short-term profit vs. long-term wealth; Our current monetary system is described in Revelation To download podcast – Right mouse click here -Answering email questions and comments -I mentioned on October 23rd that the frackers profits were largely an illusion and that they were not as efficient as the sell-side was claiming. When the stories began to emerge that the shale plays were large consumers of debt the XOP began to sell off. I mentioned then that the drop in the XOP could be an indicator in the oil price direction. Oil then dropped almost $5 since then. I am concerned WTI may touch the 100-week mva at $58.50 or even the 200-week at 52.20. Keep in mind that the price of gas usually comes down here in the US around important election cycles, so this may just be noise, but the shale players look sick. Stay away from the shale drillers. -I am neutral on US equities. Too many people are bearish and shorting seems too much of a sure thing. -I am slightly short-term bullish on gold as the dollar is still somewhat short-term overbought on the USDX and in JPY. The COT is still compressed and it has room to further unwind. The commercials covered shorts on just a fall to 1,225. They probably covered many more on the further drop. I look for a test of 1,250. -Spec shorts continue to cover in the 10-year UST futures. Five weeks in a row, but still overly shorted. Despite all the sound and fury, UST yields are still low. Never underestimate the NWO to keep the system propped-up. -The problems with predicting commodity, bond, and stock prices in the future. Nonetheless, investors and traders rely on these predictions. -It is easier predicting the secular trends than it is determining short-term price movements. Concentrating on the big picture can make us a lot more money and save us our sanity. -Watch out for those begging the US Fed to ease up on monetary policy. They love the easy money and have built a lot of wealth with the loose Fed policy. They are shilling their selfish interests. -I analyze the monetary and economic systems described in the book of Revelation and they appear to be very similar to those we are currently enslaved under. Let’s not get caught up with thinking that this system must collapse before the tribulation period. -A few subscribers have commented on the wage economy analysis. I answer some of the questions. -A subscriber in Australia, a real estate attorney, is observing similar trends in his country’s property titling to that of the US. I predict that we will eventually get a de facto national titling system. It will transcend the current system. There is now ample court precedent supporting it. Property confiscation will be a much more straightforward process. Seditious citizens will be able to have their assets stripped more easily. Links to articles and media discussed- Home Depot’s Bernie Marcus: Rate hikes will wreck economy Top Commodity Traders Expect Oil Prices To Drop In 2019 ‘Colossal collapse’ in gas prices expected heading into midterm elections Goldman Sachs: Brent To Hit $80 Before Year-End 10-Year UST COT Chart Gold COT Chart World Stock Market Performances Data Gold COT Report Data Global Bond Yield Data November 1st Market Update -Social proof and working for a living; Never underestimate the NWO financial system To download podcast – right mouse click here -Dollar was clearly short-term overbought and gold/silver receive a nice bid -Oil is not responding to weaker dollar. Hmmm… -US stocks get through the month of October in one piece -Social proof and the illusion of working for a living and depending on a wage -We need to take advantage of the “flaws” of the monetary system, so we don’t fall further behind -Never underestimate the TPTB to keep things going; The 20-year Japanese bond bubble 62% Of All US Jobs Don’t Pay Enough To Support A Middle-Class Life Economic calendar US dollar index chart Bond Bear Bull   October 28th Update – Recommendations and Commentary – The US Fed dilemma may take care of itself if the US economy slows To download the podcast – right mouse click here -Gold COT report normalizing and someone is trying to keep it below 1,250, but I think it will take it out. It is still oversold even with the large specs buying back their shorts. Fortuitous market volatility adding to its chances. -10 UST futures not nearly as oversold as before. 10-year UST catching bid on volatility. This shows that the markets are not losing its glue. There is still logic and the USD is still the go-to asset. Short-term USD assets are up year over year. -Major market 10-year sovereign yields fell over the past month. -Keeping perspective; the major US stock indexes are still up year over year. The anglo-based stock averages are still doing better than elsewhere. -The DJIA could test its 200 week mva and things will be fine. That is still higher than 20,000. –U.S. ECONOMY HAS ‘PEAKED’ AND WILL SLOW DOWN, ECONOMISTS SAY, DESPITE TRUMP’S PROJECTIONS. So says Newsweek. -Blast from the past – Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020 -Be careful shorting a “sure” thing. If the Fed comes out and says anything that might be dovish anyone shorting the markets would be taken out to the woodshed. I have lived through 4-5 asset cycles in my 30 years as student and investor and have seen it all. -Dollar-based assets continue to shine as I have been recommending since February 2013 on henrymakow.com. Why change now? -Life is not like the Big Short. In order to short a market an investor needs money and if they continually lost money in their other investments over the past decade how much capital do they have to short? -WTI touched its 50-week MVA. It could test the 200-week mva of 52.09. The XOP is leading the way. I got out of my XOP a little over a week ago (I said so last week) after research indicated that the shale plays continue to raise debt levels even with a higher oil price. The sell-side and investment banks are painting a rosy picture for the frackers, because they constantly need investment banking services. Their cost of capital is rising at the worst time. -A background to my articles on Henry Makow’s site going back to February 2013.  Anyone taking my advice would have done well, but the articles were not popular. It was not what his readers wanted to see. -There are so many opportunities to make tons of money in busted out sectors. Why take a high risk secular trade like shorting the stock market? Follow what the Carlyle Group does. Get involved in the busted out sectors when they appear. It’s best to wait for the opportunity. -Cash is still king, as it has been since the last week of January. -Below is a copy of an email response I sent out to a blog follower (former follower?) who thought I was foolish for not shorting the markets and perhaps a disinfo agent, since the others in the alt-financial media said that anyone telling the listeners to stay in the markets and not shorting were probably co-opted. I didn’t realize how prescient I was 5 1/2 years ago. —————————- Response- Go to henrymakow.com and do a search for Thom Beecham. He suggested I use the pseudonym as most his writers do. Since I was correct often Henry suggested I start a blog. I then started writing under my real name as I don’t really care anymore about being targeted for anything. 2/21/2013 article (gold was $1,610 when I wrote the article) https://www.henrymakow.com/2013/02/What-is-Ailing-Gold.html At the time in early February 2013 when I wrote this article I still owned several hundred ounces of gold. Read the excerpt below. excerpt: Early this past Sunday morning, I noticed that a collapse in gold and silver was in the works. There was a wall of sell orders at $1,650, right around the release of Thursday’s US unemployment numbers. The wall was huge – indicating official-sponsored activity. Once the $1632 support was taken out I fully hedged my physical gold and silver with several front month futures contracts. I still have them in place as of this writing. Here is the April 8, 2013 article (gold was $1,573) https://www.henrymakow.com/2013/04/Goldbugs-Can-Expect-More-Losses.html excerpt: Joel Skousen is probably the most astute man I have come across regarding the New World Order. I agree with his assessment that this financial Ponzi scheme can be maintained for at least another 3-4 years, and war will be averted until the end of the decade. This will be the war that will provide the US Treasury with its force majeure to cancel debt.
Can you maintain your patience that long? Can your assets hold out that long? Can you survive $15-20 silver and $1,200 gold? [Silver was about $28 and gold was $1,573 when I wrote the article]  Do you need these assets to live? I am not saying it will get that bad, but it could. I know it will get a lot worse over the next several years. The worst aspect of all this will be the globalist-controlled media “gas-lighting” those who understand the truth, trying to get you to lose your sanity and convince you that the law of gravity has been repealed.
We all know what happened a couple days later November 2015 https://www.henrymakow.com/2015/11/Bull-Market-in-Stocks.html
July 2015 https://www.henrymakow.com/2015/07/Cabalist-Deception-Invades-the-Markets.html September 21, 2015 (DJIA was 16,510 at the time.) and the Fed hadn’t yet raised rates https://www.henrymakow.com/2015/09/no-relief-in-sight-for-gold.html excerpt: Eventually, the FED will have to raise rates. I am of the opinion that it should have raised them up to two years ago.  They will have to raise them lest it be blamed for causing the upcoming US domestic stock market bubble. I only vouch for the US stock market. Based on short interest, put buying, investor sentiment, and situations similar to this in the past (1920s), I have to conclude we have a 50-60% shot of hitting Dow 20k sometime by end of 2017. Links to articles discussed – Sovereign debt yields Global stock market averages Gold COT Report Gold COT Chart 10-Year UST COT Chart U.S. ECONOMY HAS ‘PEAKED’ AND WILL SLOW DOWN, ECONOMISTS SAY, DESPITE TRUMP’S PROJECTIONS US GDP Report – Q3 US dollar index chart   October 25th Update and Commentary – Keeping perspective and staying focused on the big picture To download podcast – right mouse click here -Do not get diverted by partisan politics and hard-wired biases -The central banks are trying to tighten despite tepid data. The only country looking OK is the US, but the tighter Fed policy will ripple around the world. -The ECB is disappointed in the economic data, but is trying to tighten. It is following in the Fed’s footsteps -The upcoming bust was planned in advance and the relaxed policy after 2012 sealed its fate. -Cash is king. Interest rate increases and tighter policy always cause every bust under the private central banking system -An analysis of the system over the past few decades -Stay in cash as much as possible. I have been saying this since Steve Mnuchin opened his mouth on January 26th, yammering about a weak dollar, and Greenspan’s famous 1/31 unwinding long-term bond bubble interview. Links to articles discussed- Sri Lanka calls for global coalition to tackle rising dollar   October 23rd Update – Too many are calling for a crash; market analysis; China yields to US sanctions To upload podcast – right mouse click here -Another reason to be a dollar bull; European banks have been underperforming US banks all decade. While the US banks wrote off bad debt and recapitalized, European banks have been on an IV drip. -More Trump tax cuts coming? I don’t even think Larry Kudlow saw that one coming. -The central banks have decreased balance sheets slightly. The rising Fed funds rate and the higher long-term yields in the US have more to blame for the volatility. -The central banks could crank up the press again if things fall apart. They will get the blame here if things drop, but continue to tighten. We are overdue and the banks need to tighten. -The increasing US federal deficit spending is forcing the US Fed to tighten. It all looks manufactured. -The resulting fallout of the Trump spending and US Fed tightening, with its hard hit to the emerging economies, will increase the call for an international overseer to manage domestic monetary policy -China yielding to US sanctions on Iran. The major powers are not ready for war. -Staying in cash all year has been the right choice. Being an objective observer and listening to the Fed puppets have been the best decision. -Gold receives a bid as gold bears race to cover. More coming. -Oil looks terrible here. Next support is 64.50. Frackers not making money at higher prices. I though they were more efficient. Analysis proves otherwise. Links to articles and media discussed – Ed Yardeni – Central bank balance sheet analysis MSCI Europe Financials KBW Bank Index Overview White House’s Kudlow says new tax cuts in ‘planning stage’ U.S. Shale Has A Glaring Problem Trump eyeing a 10 percent middle-income tax cut plan As U.S. sanctions loom, China’s Bank of Kunlun to stop receiving Iran payments – sources October 21st Update – Analysis and predictions; The global economy and capital flows, the financial markets, and geopolitics To download podcast – right mouse click here -Still short-term bullish on gold and silver. Despite massive short covering in the gold and silver markets, the large speculators have more to go. The commercials are now net short. -A 10-year UST yield of 3.2% seems to be the equilibrium for now. The large specs have been covering some of their shorts. They need to cover more if yields are going to rise further. Of course, yields will rise in the intermediate term. Plan accordingly. -Discussion of ZeroHedge article with analysis of Goldman’s US Fed predictions. I agree more with what Goldman is saying. If that is the case there is going to be more pain in the emerging markets. Trump will be upset. -US GDP consensus growth of 3.3% (Goldman 3.5%) is too high with rates this low. This is the huge surprise that has the Fed hamstrung. –Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday he sees that Fed policy is for continued tightening amidst strong economic growth and low unemployment. -The tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and the $500 billion dollar repatriation of corporate foreign dollars are hiking inflation concerns in the US. Plus, the dollar repatriation is helping to cause a scarcity of overseas dollars at the same time the Fed is tightening. -A global dollar crunch is in the cards as the Fed continues to tighten. Neutral rate is about 75 bps higher. The Fed needs to tighten and that means at least four more rate hikes. -US dollar well-supported here and dollar-based assets should continue to outperform. -Despite rising mortgage yields, the US residential real estate market still provides better opportunities than in the former commonwealth, European, and Asian markets. This is based on income yields and IRRs. -Italy won’t wander off the plantation and its sovereign yields will fall back again. The ECB and elites use the fear of higher yields to keep compromised governments from leaving the EU. The threats get so tired, but are effective. -Oil finding support here in the trend channel. XOP looks good here. Economic growth supports price even as short-term supply builds. Oil prices fell with stocks. Downside is limited. -India’s sovereign debt is in trouble as their yields continue to rise. The same goes for a number of other emerging economies. Investors are selling their debt and parking it in USD assets. -Russia is the 12th or 13th largest economy; hardly a formidable long-term war foe. Putin is all-hat and no cattle as the alt-financial media gets it right in this sense; Putin has a terrible hand, but is coming off like a tactical genius. Russia is still centrally-managed, corrupt, indebted, and its economy is too reliant on oil. -ChiCom knows the US still has the leverage. So what if China sold off its UST hoard?  It currently holds about $1.2 trillion of US government obligations.  The US Fed could easily buy them all up in the market. -The Chinese debt bubble looks insane and the tactics the ChiCom government are employing to hold it up look like they are doomed to fail. But if we contemplate that war is coming it all makes sense. The Chinese government needs to build up their domestic economy as fast as possible. Russia will be thrown under the bus after WWIII starts. -More disinfo; RT and ZeroHedge at it again as they are talking about Russia’s answer to the SWIFT payment system. I have been reading these articles for at least a decade. -Analysis of an article, This Marketer Reveals 10 Psychology Truths That Brands Use to Influence Your Buying Decisions -We all suffer from hard-wired biases, but recognizing this fact provides us the difference. Be careful of the hard-wired biases to hate the Fed, the US dollar, while supporting Putin and our manufactured adversaries. Think long and hard about supporting Trump. This is especially true with the churches. Links to articles discussed – Foreigners sell Asian bonds in September on rising US yields Global sovereign debt yields US GDP – Consensus Outlook China Cuts U.S. Treasury Holdings for Third Straight Month Russia welcomes foreign banks to join its money transfer alternative to SWIFT Foreign Banks Are Embracing Russia’s Alternative To SWIFT, Moscow Says Russia’s GDP is 12-13th largest (list of countries ranked by GDP) Gold COT Report Gold Price and COT Chart 10-Year UST Price and COT Chart US dollar index chart Oilfield Service Companies Bet On Full Recovery October 18th Update – It doesn’t matter what the US Fed does at this point To download the podcast – right mouse click here -I answer a few email questions I received over the past couple days -The US Fed kept the Fed funds rate near 0% for seven years. If the Fed tightens further and higher from here the downturn would happen faster and would probably be less severe than if policy was more relaxed. -If the Fed listens to President Trump and the asset bulls then the asset boom could last another couple years, but the down cycle would be much more severe. -I am concerned about the US government’s fiscal standing when the next bust comes about -Take your pick; I prefer to raise rates faster and get the bust sooner -The next bust is already baked into the cake and there is nothing that can be done to unwind the prior policy moves. It was all done by design and intent. -I continue to stay liquid and pay off debt. I want to be as liquid as possible for the next cycle. My goal is to have as little debt outstanding, so if a bust occurs I can leverage my assets to buy more. -I prefer holding my liquid position in my home currency -Should I own gold and/or silver? What about owning mining shares? -Is holding money in bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency keeping money liquid?   October 13th Update – Why is mainstream business turning on the Fed? Dollar bears have already lost out in a big way To download the podcast – right mouse click here -Keep focused on what really matters; Stay tuned and stay liquid. Why is the mainstream business media now criticizing the US Fed? -The US announced three years ago that they would begin unwinding the balance sheet and raising the Fed funds rate. The markets took it in stride and was accepted by most in the MSM and alt-financial press. -We analyzed that the US Fed was behind the curve, given rising asset inflation, lower unemployment, and domestic economic growth. They were just playing catch-up. -In fact, the Fed is still too dovish and has fallen behind their intended targets on their balance sheet unwind program. -Many in the alt-financial media who were excoriating the US Fed when it promulgated QE are now criticizing the Fed for its tightening. We can’t have it both ways, but many in the alt-financial world who are too contaminated with their Trump-loving, hard-wired biases will beg to differ. –Reuters reports that the “world’s central bankers feel the heat as populists demand easy fix.” Many in the populist movement are warning that the central banks are way too tight. This includes the Trump supporters, with their hard-wired biases. -If the Fed loosens up commercial real estate values will continue to balloon. –Jim Cramer is harshly criticizing the US Fed actions. Bloomberg has thrown its hat into the ring, too. -The US Fed is not causing the problems at this point in the business cycle, I submit it is the reckless and myopic fiscal policies of the US government. The untimely building of the federal deficit is pumping over about $500 billion into the economy. The deficit for 2019 is estimated to be about $1 trillion. -We may say that Trump is just doing what is politically expedient for his voters, but why are his actions and rhetoric bringing the world closer to war? Perhaps he is just carrying out his part of the agenda as a compromised member of the secret societies. -This upcoming global conflict will be the force majeure that will usher in the next phase of the new world order. It was difficult to contemplate before Trump took office, but it is looking more certain with each passing day. -The dog and pony show between Trump and the Fed is highly charged and politicized. This is unprecedented and its results will take time to flesh out. This manufactured drama has engulfed most in the alt-financial media. It will prove costly as the followers of the alt-media will make the wrong financial decisions once again. -With $1 trillion in new federal deficit spending and legislation passed this fiscal year that will add $445 billion to the deficit next year alone what will the Trump regime do when things fold in on itself? -Household debt levels in the US are actually very reasonable.  -Being a dollar basher has been costly. Most of the dollar bashers who are promoted in the alt-financial press are controlled shills and are there to impoverish and disenfranchise potential resistance to the new world order. These sites and outlets include Zerohedge, RT, Daily Reckoning, KWN, Economic Collapse Blog, etc.  Keep in mind that many of the alt-financial sites are only copywriters and get paid for marketing. The shills that impoverish with half-truths and deception include, Nomi Prins, David Stockman, Max Keiser, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Mark Faber, Jim Rogers, Michael Snyder, Paul Craig Roberts, etc. If you followed the calamity talk of these shills you lost a lot of money and it came at a tremendous opportunity cost.
Hating the dollar has its price; it comes at a tremendous opportunity cost.
The amount of wealth added to US balance sheet has been breathtaking. Of course, those listening to the alt-financial press lost out on a once-in-a-generation opportunity. -Some conspiracy students view Trump as being just a stupid demagogue and not part of the larger conspiracy for world government. They look at the UN Agenda 2030 as part of something else. I submit that Trump will help bring the world to war and the resulting world wreckage will resemble that of a society modeled after Agenda 2030. Agenda 2030 is just Agenda 21 on steroids. -Gold has some legs here. Buying on the dips proved profitable so far. The bearish bets were too extreme. Links to articles and media discussed – China’s trade surplus with US hits record high of US$34 billion as trade war rages on The Self-Defeating US Empire The Bond Market’s $1 Trillion Deficit Spiral Has No Political Fix Nomi Prins – 4 Pillars of Debt in Danger of Collapse (boiler plate scare mongering) Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product Fed Balance Sheet There’s another big reason why Trump could blame the Federal Reserve for rising interest rates Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Worth, Level October 8th Update – Donald Trump, the world’s most renowned bankruptcy expert, has been hired again for the big one To download the podcast right mouse click here -Donald Trump has plenty of experience in bankruptcy cases and it seems he was hired to work on another bankruptcy; the bankruptcy of the world outside the United States. -The top traders can separate their biases when it comes to party affiliation. For instance, successful traders and investors who are Republican can be objective about government economic policies and how they can affect the markets. The average person cannot, which is why the average person always ends up on the losing end of every bust. -Trump’s America First policy is seriously impacting most of the countries outside the US. The US asset markets may continue to do OK, as dollar-denominated assets will be sought out over others. -The tariff talk is small potatoes compared to the impending calamity of rising UST yields. -The top economists of the world (not the shills on CNBC and Bloomberg) know what is coming. -When Alan Greenspan talked about the bond bubble unwind in late January and early March he had already taken a look at the Trump fiscal stimulus package and knew we were done. The same goes for Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. But they can’t come out and say it as that would make Powell’s job more difficult. -We may not agree with the fiscal and monetary package promulgated during the market nadir earlier this decade, but at least the timing made sense. Never push fiscal stimulus at the cycle highs. -The only way to avoid what is coming is for either US economic growth and inflationary pressures to fall quickly or to rescind Trump’s fiscal package. -Keep in mind that this was completely avoidable. At some level I have to say it was done by design as the people running the government cannot be that stupid. When people join a secret society they are given over to another master. -There is a substitution effect with sovereign debt. How will the European nations finance their deficits at low rates if the 10- year UST yield is approaching 4%? How will Japan be able to keep their debt machine working with no grease? -So many nations could topple over and go insolvent. -A president who provides unprecedented fiscal stimulus at the height of the market cycle is either very foolish or doing it on purpose. I submit that Trump doesn’t have the introspection and understanding, so what he was told comes from a higher level. Links to articles submitted – US inflation is the world’s most important economic variable October 6th Update – The US Fed is way behind the curve and the next bust is now certain; The globalists played us with Kavanaugh; Trump will consolidate his power -To download the podcast right mouse click here -The US Fed has been way behind the curve for at least three years. This was intentional, just like with the last few times the Fed kept rates too low for too long. This was not a mistake. -For those with cash and low leverage this provides upcoming opportunities. -This does not mean there will be catastrophe. It only means another planned downturn is in the works. As always it will be deflationary, so the dollar bashers need to realign their confirmation bias. -My recommendations will ensure us that if catastrophe ensues we will be properly prepared. -We may be surprised how far the Fed may be forced to raise rates to reign in inflation, GDP growth, and asset markets (real estate) inflation. The 10- and 30-year UST may rise higher than we think. -This was totally intentional. We discussed the uber-dovish policy as far back as 2015 and that the Fed should have begun to raise rates as early as late 2012. The Fed needed to begin normalizing interest rates  as far back as six years ago. They didn’t have to unwind the balance sheet until later. -The giant monolithic force that was long 10-year UST futures and that was sponsored by the Fed and Treasury is gradually retreating. Will 3.5% be sooner rather than later? -It is too late to fix this cycle and the next bust is baked into the cake. Done by design. -Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed President said he totally underestimated the US economy’s strength. –Banks Brace for the Downside of Higher Rates -The US federal budget deficit is much larger for this time in the business cycle. The increases in government spending and tax cut stimulus are to blame right now more than the low interest rates. It is like an out of control bus now and there is nothing that can be done except to raise rates across the board until it folds. -The best suggested investment strategy is to increase cash and short-term investments and pair down debt. We are now running into the late stages of this current cycle strength. -My concern is that the US government will be out of bullets come the next downturn. That is unless it intends to go over $2 trillion in annual deficits (I think Ben Bernanke’s Wiley Coyote comment is accurate). -If the US government didn’t provide all this front-loaded stimulus, economic growth, inflationary pressures, and the Fed’s urgency in raising rates would be lower. -An analysis in how the Trump supporters and patriots supported a Bush and Ken Starr retread for Supreme Court justice. Before the confirmation hearings many in the truther movement were very disappointed in Kavanaugh. However, the over-the-top “liberals” channeled the patriots into the corner to come together for a judge well-known to support federal government heavy-handedness and 4th amendment evisceration. -I predict Trump will consolidate power after the mid-terms. THIS IS NOT BY ACCIDENT. If this is true then the “liberal” grandstanding was just for show. -I see pastors who should know better on YouTube praying for the Kavanaugh confirmation. We are done and the church in the US is completely rudderless. Links to articles discussed- Mortgage Rates Are Officially Back to 5% Atlanta Fed President’s 10/5 speech in which he admits he totally underestimated economic growth (transcript) Federal deficits by year for the last decade CBO – Monthly Budget Review for September 2018 The “VaR Shock” Is Back: Global Bonds Lose $880 Billion In One Week 30-year mortgage above 5% and keeps rising COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – October 5, 2018 October 4th Update – The US Fed is intentionally raising bond yields. We were warned already. -We were warned by Greenspan, Yellen, and Bernanke in carefully scripted interviews early in the year that bonds were going to suffer losses and to prepare accordingly. I pay attention to the broadcast interviews for clues. -The Fed is not losing control.  The Fed needs to raise the entire yield curve in preparation for the next bust. It could easily lower bond yields if it wanted, but it has clearly mapped out its strategy and seems to be sticking to it for now. -The biases in the alt-financial media are too ingrained to overcome. Peter Schiff, USA Watchdog, and ZeroHedge are all telling their followers that things are spinning out of control. -The collapse talk provides tasty click bait and added revenue for the alt-financial media. Schiff has been barking the same trash since at least 2003. -The dollar collapse talk is in high gear again. These prophets are recommending gold over dollars. I say otherwise. Owing dollar-denominated debt is the last thing we want as that is an effective dollar short. -The US Fed is at the top of the financial hierarchy and all other monetary authorities play off the Fed. -I don’t get distracted with the anti-dollar rhetoric coming out of the IMF and ECB. They are controlled opposition and just trash-talking players on different teams. They all play for the same group of owners. It reminds me of the Giants/Cowboys rivalry. -Martin Armstrong; controlled opposition and collapse talker. Why would I listen to a person who rejects conspiracy out of hand? He says it’s just the greedy politicians trying to keep their jobs. He also thinks the Romans crucified Jesus. He praises the private central bank concept. -If you want to know about climate change just look up in the sky. It’s all a big lie, so don’t confront the adversary with opposite findings. We just play into their hand. Proverbs 26:4. -The Trump tax cuts are just making things easier for the elites to carry out their agenda. If all spins out of control, much of the blame can be leveled on Trump. He juiced the economy at the worst time. -Bernanke talked of the US economy’s Wiley Coyote moment and bond unwind. -Don’t look to the media, TV, patriot media heads, newspapers to provide the answers. Once someone mentions that the left/right paradigm is a fraud and that there is no real difference between the two sides, he or she is banished. -We need to be prepared for the next bust. We need to think for ourselves. -I LOVE MARKET BUSTS! YOU SHOULD, TOO. Links to articles discussed- Peter Schiff: “We’re On The Precipice Of A Much Bigger Crisis Than The Last One” September 29th Update – Overcoming biases to better our lives; Nobel Prize-winning economists talk about how stupid we are -We all have confirmation biases. How we deal with them separates us from everyone else -Those with strong beliefs have the most powerful biases. Try rationally discussing the global economy with someone convinced collapse is around the corner. -I spend little time analyzing what many of the proffered “experts” in the financial media are talking about.  The whole financial industry is one big conflict of interest and they all talk their book of business and agenda. -The globalists know what we are thinking and with the internet algorithms know why we think this way. -The globalists know that virtually all people do not know why they have their beliefs. -The globalists develop different types of controlled media to indulge us. -Nobel prize winning economists talk about how stupid we are. They work for the dark side. At least they tell us in their books. -10-year treasury yields may have topped out for the short-term future as the COT report is the most lopsided in history; the large speculators are the most short ever. -Gold has firm support near 1200 as the commercials added to their long positions and the large specs added to their historically large net short position. Silver is helping as it saw a nice lift to end the week. -Oil rising as interest rates rise. Most of the marginal producers are out of business from the last downturn and the survivors with strong balance sheets are making a lot of money. I have been long the XOP for a few months now. An analysis of the Japanese asset price bubble and its similarities to today’s asset-driven economy; Stifling government intervention -I worked at Mitsui Trust Company from 1990-1993 and witnessed the results of the bursting of the Japanese asset price bubble in real time. My observations from that experience. -The arrogance of the Japanese corporations and their officers during their bubble years and the arrogance of today’s wealthy are similar. They became drunk and complacent. -Many of those who promote and write about government intervention in the market place are in their 30s-40s and were products of their educational environment. They were indoctrinated with macroeconomic textbooks that promoted government intervention. -Japanese land prices rose for the first time in 27 years as an influx of foreign tourists boosted demand for hotel properties and shops -Japanese mortgage rates near historic lows (about .9%) yet prices continued to fade. -I am seeing similarities with Japan and what has happened in the US over the past few years.  The Japanese asset bubble was characterized by rapid acceleration of asset prices and overheated economic activity, as well as an uncontrolled money supply and credit expansion. More specifically, over-confidence and speculation regarding asset and stock prices were closely associated with excessive monetary easing policy at the time. -My concern is that the next time housing and stock prices fall low interest rates won’t be able to right the ship. -Egged on by extremely low rates, US companies have piled on a record-setting $6.3 trillion of debt -DC-based sandwich chain declares bankruptcy and closes all stores over owner’s ties to Trump. -Why I chose real estate rentals as a business. These are the same reasons why we should choose our future endeavors. Links to articles discussed- Japanese asset price bubble The State of Housing Confidence in 2018 Japan’s average land prices rise for the first time in 27 years Average land price increases for 1st time since bubble era (Japanese mortgage rates) HOME LOAN RATES TO RISE THIS MONTH Corporate America, not banks, could cause the next recession BUSTED: DC-based sandwich chain declares bankruptcy and closes all stores over owner’s ties to Trump September 23rd Update – Dovish Fed policy as inflation and asset prices rise; Asset bubbles transcend asset classes; Economics and trading books I read and recommend -Will the 10-year UST be allowed to run up in yield? As the Fed tightens the longer-end of the curve needs to move higher. -Asset prices and inflation moving higher as the Fed maintains its dovish policy. -Asset bubbles always act and end the same way, regardless of asset class –Mortgage yield APRs pushing 5%. –Home builders hit new lows for the year after handful of downgradesThis chart shows the haves and have-nots of the housing market, and it’s getting worse -Social and deficit spending raises asset prices, especially real estate, by definition. All that debt becomes monetary equivalents and collateral that can be used to buy assets. -XRP (Ripple Holdings crypto) hodlers setting up for disappointment? Shills out there pumping once again as XRP is a centrally-managed coin and what company would use it? -Some books I recommend; I have been studying behavioral economics as the globalists have used this science against us. They know us better than we know ourselves. This is why I recommend learning more about this field of study. Perhaps we can learn more about why we make particular choices. -Intermediate Macroeconomcis textbooks from 20-30 years ago provide a good framework of the study. Newer macroeconomic theories promote government intervention, socialism, social justice, and income redistribution. -Alex Jones has been going on epic profanity-laced rants. He has thrown the patriots under the bus. The job has been accomplished. Links to articles and media discussed- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dr. Dan Ariely Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets My Ex, Alex Jones Apparently Drunk, Raging and Cursing During Syria Strikes Sovereign bond yields 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity September 20th Update – Ordo ab chao; Anticipate and act; Will gold perk up? Platinum has; the globalist puppets predicted bonds would unwind; mortgage rates near 5% -Order out of chaos; Those who run the planet create the chaos and conflicts to further their agenda. They operate behind the scenes, so few people see it as being all manufactured and intentional. -Most following alt-right and alt-financial media do not see the careful planning of the chaos and the left/right conflict. Of course, the top of the alt-right pyramid is completely controlled. -The compromised churches have brainwashed many to think the end is soon and that the rapture is imminent. Why plan for the future? The ones worried about being left behind will be financially left behind. All by design as any potential opposition will be neutered. -The Synagogue uses emotion to whip up the contrived sides against one another while the next phase of the NWO agenda pushes forward with little resistance. Few of the people who think they know what is going on are looking in the right direction. -Despite rising bond yields, a fading dollar, higher inflation, and a bullish COT report, gold is struggling. Don’t look for silver to save the day. However, platinum may be telling us better days are coming. -Mortgage rates at some banks approaching 5%, the highest in 6-7 years. Eventually, everything the ex-Fed chairs said earlier this year will hit. It takes time and gives the elite time to adjust and anticipate. -The average household is the wealthiest ever. But those supporting Trump have been left behind, while his adversaries have benefited the most. Remember that Trump was a liberal democrat until he spotted an opportunity to take advantage of an under-served demographic; the naive flag-waving crowd (NIFWICs). -The globalists want us to be good global citizens, but when it comes to war they want us to be patriots. Links to articles and media discussed- China’s ‘social credit’ system is a real-life ‘Black Mirror’ nightmare Repatriated profits total $465 billion after Trump tax cuts – leaving $2.5 trillion overseas Mortgage Rates Knocking on 5% Ceiling U.S. Household Wealth Hit Record $106.9 Trillion Last Quarter 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States Household net worth climbs by $2.19 trillion, driven by stock market, house prices Five Essential Numbers for Measuring an Economy September 18th Update; A discussion of listener emails and a review of the long-term agenda -Perhaps a hidden objective of the implementation of MERS and the defacto nationalization of the MBS industry is to create a national real estate title registration system. -Government confiscation of real estate is difficult under the current local government title registration system. A national registry would solve many of these issues and make taking your house as easy as taking a bank account. -10-year US Treasury moves above 3%. the US Fed mouthpieces warned us and they warned the insiders to make hay while the sun shines. -In a post global-conflict world we would have to pledge allegiance to the NWO and renounce our religious beliefs and long-held admiration of the constitution. -It is nice to possess the confirmation bias that says the Synagogue of Satan globalists are losing control.. This would imply that we have more control over our lives. The alt-financial media and alt-right personalities try to tell us this very idea, because they get a bigger following. It is depressing to contemplate that this ostensible chaos is by intent and means we have less control over our lives. Unfortunately, I have to conclude that this chaos is just for show. It is convincing, isn’t it? -The United States will be the Nazi Germany of WWIII -The media has been conditioning us for decades to accept the inevitability of a global nuclear war. They have conditioned us to think of the constitution and nationalism on par with child molesting, white supremacy, racism, and all sorts of evil. -The China/American trade tensions go back to its genesis; Kissinger’s visits to China in 1971. This coincided with Nixon’s shutting of the gold window. China was chosen to be the manufacturing base and the US’s military was chosen to be the NWO sledge hammer. Thus, the US dollar has to be the reserve currency. We cannot have one without the other. -The current tariff war goes back to the 1970s, when the bilateral trade deficits that started under the Carter regime began to balloon. The globalists knew this outcome was inevitable, which was their intention. It goes back almost 50 years. –A visibly drunk Alex Jones was comparing himself and President Trump to Godly figures, while denigrating the left and the Bushes. Markets Update – Why the management of the yield curve is so important and what the next several years hold; is silver ready to take another leg down? -Why the suppression of the yield curve is the most important objective for now. -Further comments on the mortgage market and the US Treasury yield curve -A quick analysis on the current monetary system and the objective of the elites. -A top-down look at the lifespan of our fiat monetary system and what the next several years hold -What we need to stay focused on for our personal financial lives -Gold and 10-year UST COT analysis -I think silver is ready to take another leg down this week. Gold COT is bullish, but silver performing poorly. -The US Fed is way behind its tightening campaign.  The Fed has been slow to unwind its balance sheet. The dovishness continues to support asset prices. Links to articles discussed- Gold to Silver Ratio for Last Month Economic calendar Federal Funds Rate – 62 Year Historical Chart 10-Year UST COT Chart 10 Year Treasury Rate – 54 Year Historical Chart 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Gold COT Chart The alt-financial media got it wrong; MERS and the MBS market were designed to help the globalists suppress long-term bond yields -The concept of the mortgage-backed security (MBS) goes back to the late 1970s with its invention. Lewis Ranieri is often referred to as the “father of the mortgage-backed security.” He rose to become Vice Chairman at Salomon Brothers in the late 80s. -The MBS got a big boost when it received favorable tax treatment under the 1986 TRA, with the REMIC getting tax-exemption status. By the end of 1986 the MBS market was worth $150 billion. -The Bloomberg terminals became important MBS price discovery sources around this time. -Mortgage underwriting was very subjective at the time, with many banks and officers having wide discretion. Moreover, banks generally kept the loans on their books. This created problems with pricing models. In addition, in the late 80s-mid 90s, as interest rates fell MBS prepayments became a problem and MBS prices fell hard. This is counterintuitive as bond prices would normally rise. -The globalists took note as MBSs perform best in a stable-interest rate environment – the current market dynamic we have experienced over the past decade. The first 30 years of the MBS market proved to be a valuable learning experience for the globalists. –Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, Inc. (MERS) was not established to undermine the concept of ownership title as the alt-financial media claims. MERS was founded by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, and the Mortgage Bankers Association, to help standardize the MBS market and to create a pool of liquidity in the trillions. -Just like with the US Fed, nobody can seem to figure out who owns MERSCORP, operator of MERS. The judges even make errors when identifying parties in a lawsuit. -Imagine how high mortgage rates would be if we did not have the federally-backed MBS sector and the MERS registry. Either rates would be low and there would be no credit available or rates would be high and asset prices would have collapsed. We cannot have both, unless there is marxist government control. -By expanding this pool of mortgage funding liquidity the globalists were able to keep mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be able to. The real estate sector provides the largest asset class of collateral. In order for the globalists to control long-term yields it was necessary for them to control the mortgage market. -The manufactured crisis of 2008 provided the excuse to nationalize the mortgage market. The GSEs, the mortgage banking industry, the underwriting and appraisal process were all nationalized and federalized. Thus, the process became objective and standardized. -As debt levels became more onerous, it became necessary for the major markets (e.g. Treasury and residential mortgage) to be actively managed by the government and the US Fed. With respect to the mortgages, the standardized MBS market and its accompanying MERS recordation system provided the needed tools to tame this multi-trillion dollar sector. -Masonic federal judges were picked to hear the cases against MERS. Notice that virtually all the court proceeding either were in favor of MERS or were undecided. -This system is now deeply entrenched and is marxist in nature. We go into debt, but the entire market runs by government dictate. -Welcome to the New World Order   The secret societies are running the show and we have no say; thoughts on the US dollar and REITs Watch VP Pence (Mr. Christian conservative) blatantly give the masonic handshake during a Trump news conference. -Discussion of 9/12 Joel Skousen interview with Jeff Rense. (right mouse link to download interview) -All parties in the political spectrum, even the heads of the patriot movement, are part of the Synagogue of Satan. They wouldn’t be there unless they gave their secret oath. -I never had any illusions about Trump looking out for us. There are many people who should have known better and are surprised that Trump hasn’t lived up to any of his promises. -The secret societies control Australia; Question; why would Australia’s military conduct joint military war games with China? Answer; to give China much needed intelligence and military strategy. The globalists want China to strike the west and want Australia to fold in the upcoming global conflict. -Separate yourself from a world that is populated with virtue signalers. -I do not recommend owning residential REITs, but understand why. Dividend yields are approaching that of US Treasuries. Single-family REITs yield about 1.6%. We have the management of the yield curve by the US Treasury and GSEs to thank. -The managers of the REITs are the only ones making a lot of money from them. -I still believe US housing provides much better yields and cap rates. One rental property can provide the owner a wealth of tax benefits and income offsets, higher appreciation potential, and better payouts than any REIT. -Even REITs like SKT have poor payouts when their stressed portfolio is considered. Its 5.9% yield cannot overcome the continual loss of NAV. I prefer PSA as the debt slaves in the US have a lot of useless junk to store. -The petrodollar myth; As we predicted, the US has just become the world’s largest oil producer. If Texas were a nation it would be the 3rd largest producer of oil.  -The oil output of the US will continue to expand and will continue to grow faster than Russia. -The globalists are expanding the oil extraction technology and output potential of the US as war approaches. Link to REIT data discussed- REIT Investment Performance by Property Sector and Subsector Important update – How to survive the New World Order and the end times -The 1st & 2nd Amendments were constitutional issues, but now they have been turned into a left/right debate -Eventually, the 4th & 5th Amendments will be politicized as well. This is done by design. -Political correctness has become a false left/right issue -President Trump and his group of tag-alongs (e.g. Alex Jones, PJW, Jerome Corsi, Milo Yiannopoulos, Mike Cernovich) have politicized the constitution. -The alt-financial media was created to impoverish those who pose a threat to the NWO. -What we need to do to survive the next decade. -Other than physical gold, real estate will provide the best protection against seizure in the end times. This is why I invest in it. It still provides owners with common law remedy in many respects. This will not change much as RE provides the largest pool of collateral to the NWO. -How we need to view the world and what we need to accomplish to succeed financially and morally. -These are exciting times and are not meant to make us fearful. We need to be self-sovereign and self-governing. -Gold trade the most lopsided in history. Every week is more unprecedented. Something will break (I still say to the upside) -The Feds are managing the treasury yield curve and are using the GSEs to manage mortgage rates, and by extension, all interest rates. -IMF Chief economist says the US Fed can buy everything not nailed down during the next recession. -This can continue forever, or until the Synagogue of Satan, working through their private central banks own it all or decide otherwise. Links to articles discussed- Fed should buy stocks if there is another steep recession, former IMF economist says COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – September 7, 2018 10-Year UST COT Chart Focus on the big picture; opportunity knocks for long-term investors -US economic data continue to point to an OK domestic economy. Inflation is running much higher than what the Fed is saying. Wage growth is continuing to disappoint (the workers). Today’s data reaffirms this. -The Fed will have to eventually raise rates higher and faster. We were warned early his year and the process could take 2-3 years. -The dollar is well-supported as the world attempts to deleverage out of dollars (it won’t be able) -Silver is telling us something. Ag is an industrial metal and its weakness is saying the global economy is not as robust as the MSM shills are saying -Gold holding up as the COT is still stretched -The US stock market is a red herring as the developing nations are the first ones to get hit in any Fed tightening campaign. Don’t be involved in the collateral damage. -We have good opportunities coming up for those with cash, low debt, and unencumbered assets. Credit will continue to tighten. The Fed does not want to be blamed, so a slow approach can help to alleviate its ostensible culpability. -Turkey begins constructing site for Russian missile system — despite US warnings -The charts and market action don’t lie; further crypto weakness is coming. Etherium’s weakness is especially ominous. -Trump is part of the set up. The ongoing global economic weakness is necessary to bring about WWIII. That won’t be for at least several more years -Cash is king – STILL. There will come a time when we will wish we had it. Links to articles and media discussed- Analyst who called February correction says the Fed will trigger a bear market with two more hikes Federal Funds Rate – 62 Year Historical Chart Economic calendar Turkey begins constructing site for Russian missile system — despite US warnings Weekend Update – Welcome to the NWO; Everyone’s cost of capital is still too low; The world is one big labor pool -Large Specs cover 10-year treasury shorts in record fashion (170,000 contracts). Yields are still suppressed here below 3%. Despite consumer and corporate optimism long yields are still low. -Optimism is so high (highest since 1999), because cost of capital is so low. Money is cheap. -Residential real estate’s cost of capital, based on demand, is still low. Mortgage rates should be 6-7% -Gold commentary -More articles and commentary on wage growth drag -Welcome to the NWO; open borders include free movement of labor as well as free movement of capital inputs. -The whole world is one big labor pool -The tariffs hurt the very people who support them and support Trump. Tariffs don’t work in the New World Order -Trade deficits are widening, despite higher tariffs. Links to articles and media discussed- US dollar index chart Speculative U.S. 10-year T-note net shorts fall from record high -CFTC The rampaging U.S. economy is pushing unemployment to lowest level since 1960s COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 31, 2018 Gold COT Chart 2018 Economic Calendar 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity 10-Year UST COT Chart 10 Year Treasury Rate – 54 Year Historical Chart 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States August 30, 2018 – The choice has been made; The US Treasury and Fed are working to keep the US Government in business -Discussing the US treasury market under traditional circumstances is meaningless when the US Treasury and US Fed are working to keep a lid on the 10-year yield. -Mainstream media has it wrong; The talking head shills on CNBC cannot rationally discuss what is going on with US treasuries if they refuse to comprehend the conspiracy for the one-world financial dictatorship. -The alt-financial media has it wrong; Larry Kudlow must be working with the US Treasury to keep a lid on yields. The compression of the 2-yr and 10-yr spread is manufactured and has lost its meaning in being an indicator of future economic weakness. -The US Fed cannot raise rates higher while the US Treasury is taking the contra-side in the futures market. The Large spec short position continues to grow, while the large commercials (working for government) are going record long. If I owned a large portfolio of Treasuries I would be shorting the futures as well. -Inflation is continuing to pick up and the domestic economic data looks fine, yet the US Fed continues its extremely dovish policy. However, the Treasury is keeping the Fed in a straitjacket. -Despite all the tariff talk, trade data still point to widening deficits (that’s because the US consumer keeps spending) -The asset bubbles and higher prices in stocks and real estate can continue as long as the US 10-year can stay at these depressed levels. -Bitcoin’s price rise may only provide the needed potential energy to allow it to fall further. The alt-coins could not get above weekly channel resistance. Recall that bitcoin cash was a free coin handed out last year. The original owner cost basis is $0. Links to media and charts – 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity August 28, 2018 Update – Is Donald Trump being set up? How to spot a conflict of interest -How to spot the signs that someone is not who he says he is -Why is getting loans on collateralized income-generating investments much more difficult than borrowing for personal consumption? Why is it easier getting a credit card, student loans, and car loans than getting a line of credit for rental properties? -Guess the type of person who gets the $500mm and $1 billion loans for large real estate and business purchases? -Many people would have gone to jail or been sued into personal bankruptcy for many of the frauds and misrepresentations (e.g. Trump University, bankrupting his casinos) Trump has pulled off over his career. -An analysis of  Joel Skousen and his potential for conflict of interest. -I don’t have to go to Infowars.com to read up on Alex Jones. I can read the dozens of fresh MSM articles that promote him. Recall that negative press is good, because it piques the interest of a sizable minority of the population. -The most effective way for the “deep state” to keep AJs ideas from spreading is to not mention him at all. He should be a persona non grata in the MSM. But the opposite has occurred; AJs poison is spread far and wide. Another symptom of controlled opposition.   August 26th Update – I agree with you, we are in an “everything bubble” -An analysis of a Forbes Magazine article titled, U.S. Household Wealth Is Experiencing An Unsustainable Bubble -Anecdotally speaking, when school psychologists and government workers are worth over a million we know that this asset inflation cannot last forever.
US Fed and Federal fiscal and tax policies are always to blame
-Complaining about these circumstances won’t help. -The only measure that has become less relevant over time is the U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, as US-based corporations have expanded further into international markets.
Remember, the US Fed is just carrying out orders
Bubbles can last much longer than we can remain solvent
-I can do nothing to change this. However, we can deleverage our personal balance sheets and spend less than we earn. We have much more control over our circumstances than we think. -Think long and hard about taking on debt to expand a business. Let’s not look at current economic data as the deciding factor. Capitalization rates on everything are lower. Even retail stores and franchise businesses have expanded mightily during this boom as their cost of capital was low. -The time to take on debt is during the busts cycles. Assets are cheaper. -Since it takes a lot of knowledge to be good real estate investor, I always suggest getting involved immediately. But, keep the above charts in mind when we make investment decisions. Do the math first. -We have to take responsibility for our actions. During the last real estate boom/bust cycle, nobody held a gun to the foreclosed borrower’s head at the closing table when they signed the closing and mortgage docs. -We can be ready when the next bust comes. We can pare down debt when everyone is accumulating it. Market and Investment Update – Your perception is your reality; The secret to long-term investing success -We all have confirmation biases. How we deal with them is the difference between success and failure. -Much of the stuff we hear in the alt-media is disinfo conjured up by expert psychologists in DARPA and Arlington, VA. Much of the stuff we hear on MSM is developed by the same people. -I don’t listen to the popular alt-media shills anymore. If I need to find anything out about Alex Jones, I can read the dozens of MSM articles and news segments that come out daily about him. He’s there to blow up, embarrass, and impoverish the patriot movement. -A review of US Fed policy changes -A review of the gold, silver, UST, stocks and other asset markets -High end real estate continues to suffer. Working-class properties are still the best investments out there. -Higher rates will cause distress around the globe and could lead to painful market adjustments. We can spot them if we stay objective -Opportunity cost -A small but noticeable numbers of homeowners who live in high-cost, high-tax states such as New York and California appear to be fleeing to lower-tax markets. Some communities in Florida, Nevada and Washington are seeing unusually large price jumps in sales of upper bracket homes. Buyers aren’t reticent about their reasons either: Congress’ $10,000 cap on deductions of state and local property and incomes taxes. Links to articles and media discussed- U.S. Business-Equipment Orders Climb by More Than Forecast Durables Goods Orders Drop Most In Six Months As US Slowdown Accelerates It’s Getting Harder to Pump Up Prices in Cryptocurrency Markets Hedge Funds Kept Betting Against Gold Even as Prices Began Rally Durable-goods orders fall for 3rd time in 4 months, but businesses boost investment COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 24, 2018 US dollar index chart 10-Year UST COT Chart Gold COT Chart gold/platinum ratio chart 10-Year UST Price and COT Chart Gold Price and COT Chart Sellers’ price-cutting trend could be good news for buyers Market Update – The price and market action tell everything; Stay objective and free of cognitive bias; real estate is always a good thing, but be flexible The stories of woe and the market action in the crypto market were identical to the situation with the Nasdaq in late 2000, the gold and silver markets in late 2013, and real estate in 2010. The crypto shills are at least disingenuous and are full of conflicts of interest. Ronnie Moas has an expensive crypto service, but he lies to his subscribers and says we cannot determine the markets by looking at charts and market action. He is shilling to the bitter end while his subscribers cry the blues. -We should appreciate the Ronnie Moas shilling as trading is a zero-sum game. So, if we make 100k in cryptos his subscribers lose 100k. -Stop using the social media platforms to get news and trading ideas. They are only echo chambers that reaffirm preexisting confirmation biases. -80% of futures traders lose money. Only 10% of traders make money. Only trade when we can locate opportune instances. The COT reports can help us, especially when they reveal overstretched markets. -Private Equity firms are still getting involved in real estate. Cerburus Capital is raising $500mm to purchase single-family rental homes. -Be flexible with real estate investment. If a person is interested in real estate and he or she lives in a high-priced market (e.g. Toronto, San Francisco) look outside the area. I know of one Los Angeles investor who buys in Barstow and Apple Valley. I know of another LA resident who concentrates in Albuquerque. -If you decide to invest outside your area, just develop a relationship with a Realtor in the target area who knows exactly what you are looking for. They can manage your real estate portfolio, too. -I would rather own 4-5 cash cow single-family properties than own a 7-11 franchise. Imagine dealing with all those customers and the hours are endless. -The FOMC minutes come out Wednesday. Jerome Powell speaks Friday morning at Jackson Hole. With Trump and his demagoguery of criticizing the Fed, we may get some dovish hints. The US Treasury is already cornering the 10-year UST futures market. And the Large Commercials work with the Fed. -Trading is a mental game. Develop a style that works with you. Trading services are usually a waste of money. There are thousands of way to trade successfully. Our flaws and cognitive biases are our worst enemies. Market Update – The gold bugs should be very excited. If there is any whiff of Fed dovishness these markets could explode Soft Commodities Hit Record Low With More Losses Seen for Sugar. The stronger USD is killing the prices of the softs and trops with most at decade lows. The economies of the emerging markets are disintegrating as the US Fed has continued to tighten. If the Fed was only concerned about the domestic economy, it should be even tighter. -The battle rages in the 10-year UST futures market. According to the latest COT report, it is the most oversold in history. The large specs added 100k new shorts to their already massively oversized net short position. The Large commercials are taking the other side and I have to assume it is official intervention. –Fed May End Taper This Year Amid Regime Rethink. If the USFed even hints at a taper pause or provides any dovish tone, the overstretched markets may explode. According to the latest COT reports, the 10-year UST and gold are the most oversold in history. -If the US Treasury is demanding the 10-year yield remain low, the USFed may have to rethink its fed fund rate increase strategy. Only 24 bps separate the 2-year and 10-year USTs -For the first time I can remember the Large Commercials have actually net long gold exposure. The Large Specs are outright short for the first time that I know of, and when futures options are included the large specs. net short position is sizable and the Large Commercials are net long. -I believe we could be setting ourselves up for a massive short squeeze in the gold, platinum, silver, and the 10-year UST markets. If the markets think the Fed could rethink its strategy in any way (even small), gold could easily pop $100 off the most recent low in a few days. -As the dollar strengthens, USD-denominated assets will be well-bid. I think US real estate is cheap compared to the rest of the world’s developed and developing markets, particularly Asia. I base this primarily on cash flow numbers and price to household income levels. -If the 10-year UST yield can remain below 3% or so, the only place to go in the US will be stocks and real estate.
Australia and Canada may have debt ratio problems, but the US looks very reaosonable
-Australian and Canadian household debt/GDP and personal income are at historic extremes. I guess that is because foreign money has bid up their real estate.
With low interest rates, the debt service ratios remain subdued. Currently, the US has the lowest rate this of century. More room to add debt.
-The current US household debt service ratio is the lowest it’s been this century. The US delevered a lot after 2008 as much of the debt was worked through and/or written off. –Jim Cramer with somber news for bitcoin. Both we and Cramer were correct in estimating that the bitcoin futures market would cause prices to fall. He is out this week saying equilibrium could be as low as $800-1,000. As usual, the crypto shills are whistling past the graveyard by attacking Cramer for his opinion. I personally think it’s going lower, but Cramer’s estimate is a bit harsh. -Bitcoin keeps putting in bearish wedge after bearish wedge and I think 6,000 will give way soon to a price eventually as low as $4,700. Notice the trading volume is still high; thus I don’t see it it turning higher any time soon. But, I wouldn’t short a market that already has suffered. Never fight a wounded animal as it may surprise us in the short-term. Links to articles and media discussed – What Can Kill The S&P; What Can Save EMs; Just Two Things Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income THE ECONOMICS OF H1 2018 IN CHARTS Higher interest rates to hit younger, middle-income households, federal analysis reveals (Canada) Gold COT data table Gold COT Chart Gold Price and COT Chart United States Disposable Personal Income 10-Year UST Price and COT Chart 10-Year UST COT Data Chart 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity   Market update – Let’s not lose perspective as the globalist mouthpieces warned us August 15, 2018 Update –Right mouse click here to download
US Fed funds rates over the past 60 years. It is not difficult to anticipate what is next. Cash will be king for the next couple years.
-As the world attempts to deleverage, the US dollar will rise and that will put pressure on the emerging markets. This is the first casualty of a tightening US Fed policy. -What else can we expect? Bernanke, Yellen, and Greenspan warned us in late January-early February. -The central banks gave us the most accommodative policy in history for almost eight years and still has a relatively loose policy. -The US Fed cannot raise faster as it battles the shorts on the 10-year and keeps an eye on the rising dollar. -The US domestic economy is doing well when compared to the rest of the world. Domestic monetary policy objectives conflict with international objectives. -My cash recommendation is still in effect. pay down higher rate loans. Build up your collateral position for the next bust. -Look at the above chart; the elites know what is coming and are positioning themselves accordingly. We need to do the same. -Don’t fall victim of the social proof tendency (doing and thinking what everyone else in the alt-financial media is discussing). -So what if there is a currency reset? It is still incumbent on us to be as liquid as possible. Market Update – Altcoins get destroyed as Facebook may enter scene, gold and platinum on sale, global mouthpieces warned us about tighter Fed money policy August 13, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download -The head of Facebook’s blockchain division resigned from Coinbase’s board last Friday. It has been straight down for the alt-coins as many will go away when FB comes out with their crypto. BTC still has a place. The $6,000 BTC level will eventually give way as the bulls are furiously defending that Maginot Line. -Pace of technological advancement in the crypto sphere is too slow and in order to get the blockchain as an underpinning of a future monetary system, a centralized management scheme needs to be implemented – and will be. Decisions will be made much more quickly, rather than by consensus of coin miners. They will be made unilaterally, much to the chagrin of the libertarians and those who lost their life saving buying into the crypto scam. -Gold and platinum on sale and I added to physical at $1,200 and $800. -Oil came back after a brief hard selloff. I added to a couple oversold P&Es -It is the interest of National Security for the US to produce as much oil as possible domestically -The problems in the emerging markets are to be expected as the tighter US Fed policy is a direct cause. The globalist mouthpieces warned us of impending hard unwinding. Bernanke, Greenspan, and Yellen all told us early this year that things could become unglued. The EMs are always the first to get hit. -Analysis of Turkey’s situation. Just a corrupt and inefficient government falling victim to the Fed unwind. Perhaps Erdogan should listen to the globalist mouthpieces. -Erdogan and Trump following script to drive a wedge between secular Turkey and the US and drive it into the arms of the Soviet/Sino alliance. I think of Ezekiel 38-39. -The USFed needs to raise rates, but it must keep the Fed funds rate low as it battles the shorts on the long-end of the yield curve. The Fed is keeping accommodative policy not because they think the economy is weak, but because they cannot tell us they are working with the US Treasury in the futures market to keep the 10-year yield below 3%. -Armstrong screaming we need a currency reset. Do we? You can pay $10,000/yr for his services. He has a whole lot of fear to sell. Even if we get a “currency reset” or whatever garbage he is proposing, what does that mean? We had one in 1944 and in 1985 and the average guy on the street saw barely a thing. Links to articles discussed- Why Can’t Turkey Stop Its Economic Nose-Dive? Important Markets Update – Trading and investing recommendations. The real globalists are working well with Trump. August 11, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download Assets discussed: Gold, platinum, oil, stocks, bonds, real estate, oil P&Es, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar. -Discussion of Barron’s article, New Era for Markets is Here. And It’s Not Just Because of Trump -Trump is very useful to the globalists. The manufactured alt-right’s concept of who the globalists are is completely misguided as Trump has been molded to prepare the nations for eventual conflict. He is helping the elites to consolidate their power and wealth. -I do not see any collapses anywhere. Why have one? There is no need of one. Only the fear of collapse allows the agenda to move forward. Only the fear of another 9/11 allows the tyranny to grow. -My somber real estate analysis should not preclude an investor with a long-term time horizon from getting involved. -My goal is to have the listener become self-sufficient financially (like I already am). If the listener is polluted by collapse rhetoric he or she will be paralyzed by learned helplessness. -The Chinese are not forcing a yuan devaluation. National security issues, inefficient monetary policy, and macroeconomics are taking care of that. -The dollar is well supported here. The petrodollar concept is a myth. The US economy performing well compared to other advanced nations. Short-term rates need to rise in the US, unlike in other areas of the globe. With the US the world’s top energy producer, why would the dollar suffer? -Just because someone is banned from the private social media platforms doesn’t mean free speech is under peril. You and I are free to say anything we want as long as we do not threaten anyone. -My views are not popular, yet I make money – enough to survive and prosper without any help or benefit. If I were wrong I would be losing money.  The advice from the alt-financial writers punches the one-way ticket to perpetual poverty. If they are wrong repeatedly, why pay attention to them? I know, it satisfies your confirmation bias. Links to articles and charts discussed- Important Barron’s article – New Era for Markets is Here. And It’s Not Just Because of Trump COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 10, 2018 10-Year UST Price and COT Chart Gold COT Chart 10-Year UST COT Chart gold/platinum ratio chart Political Update – Government intervention distorts the markets; is the Trump regime ready to confiscate foreign real estate? August 9, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download -History has shown that modifications to the tax codes and changes in government policy tend to impact real estate and other asset markets more profoundly than changes in economic conditions, including movements in long-term mortgage rates. Why is this? Investors always underestimate how the government can distort the supply/demand curve. -The Trump administration, as part of a crackdown on certain US investments made by Chinese companies, is set to snatch a majority stake in Manhattan’s 850 Third Ave. -This is the first move by the Trump White House under CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investors in the United States – to seize foreign real estate interests. -With respect to investing there is absolutely no difference in the “left” and the “right.” In fact, with most issues, there is no difference. Both sides use government when it suits their interests. -Donald Trump was elected while beholden to Chinese and German lenders, in clear violation of the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause. Links to articles discussed – Trump administration to seize stake in Chinese-owned building What Is the Emoluments Clause? Trading Update – Gold, Silver, Platinum, 10-year UST, Cryptocurrencies August 8, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download -Trading and purchase updates and recommendations for gold, silver, and platinum -Is the 10-year UST yield about to explode? The COT and trading action say otherwise -The cryptocurrency market continues to plumb new depths. Looking at the sad alt-coin action we are in for a world of hurt -There is a special place reserved in hell for people like Charlie Lee of litecoin. He realized untold profits on the backs of his followers. If you are following people like Charlie Lee you need to realign your thinking. Add him to the trash heap of alt-financial writers and copywriters spreading impending catastrophe. Links to media discussed – COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 3, 2018 Gold COT Chart Platinum COT Chart 10-Year UST COT Chart Financial Update – The New World Order; The necessary consolidation of wealth and power takes decades August 6, 2018 Update – Right mouse click here to download
  • The consolidation of wealth and power in the stock market has been immense and has taken decades; -In 1975, there were 8,000 publicly-traded companies. In 2015, there were less than 3,700. -In 2015-dollars, 61.5% of these companies in 1975 had assets below $100mm. In 2015, 22.6% had assets below $100mm. -In 2015, the 200 largest companies, by earnings profits, generated ALL the stock market earnings profits. All the other companies lost money in aggregate. Earnings and power have been consolidated into a tight group of companies.
  • This consolidation of power and wealth is a prerequisite to promulgating any new system. It makes any new system much easier to implement as you and I will have no say. Government power has been transferred to the national level.
  • Currency wars? The problems with the yuan have more to do with Macroeconomics 101 than a currency war. The manufactured tariffs situation will lead the nations into the direction of an appearance of a currency war without having to be proactive in causing it.
  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the controlled mainstream shill that GATA, the gold bugs, and collapse-lovers embrace is out talking about the economic wars that China is proactively waging.
  • A listener of the podcast is predicting that bitcoin may have put in its all-time high last December. I do not disagree. The crypto shills all predicted that the bitcoin futures market was going to be a big booster to the crypto sector. We can see that bitcoin put in its all-time high almost to the day of the futures market opening. The only coin I guarantee has a future is bitcoin.
  • Fallacy of opposition – Alex Jones is fighting a manufactured confrontation against his stated enemies, who put him in his position in the first place. He has made the patriots look like buffoons and is throwing his followers under the bus. He has politicized basic constitutional rights, such as the first and second amendments. Bill Cooper was assassinated and AJ was installed in his place. Both talk down the Bible however, while claiming to be Jesus-men.
  • Jamie Dimon was out this past weekend talking down US Treasuries; he is predicting a 5%-yielding 10-year Treasury. We need to keep our powder dry for the next cycle and destruction in wealth.
  • Gold is a good inflation indicator IN THE LONG-TERM. Gold has gained 7.3% per year since 1968, but its ascent is managed to make it look like a speculative commodity.
Links to articles discussed- The Stock Market Is Shrinking. That’s a Problem for Everyone. Apple drops Infowars from podcast directory Jamie Dimon Warns of 5% Treasury Yields China Is Now Left With Just Three Options, And They Are All Equally Bad ‘We’re at economic war ‘: China is playing with fire in Trump battle   It’s clear the globalists want real estate to fall. The Fed needs to raise rates, but can’t August 1, 2018 Markets update Right mouse click here to download -The full court press in the MSM to denigrate real estate is in high gear. Recall Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke earlier this year talking down commercial real estate. -These trends take time. Don’t be impatient for immediate Schadenfreude. -The globalists gain nothing by having a collapse right now; the central banks will get the blame. -Manufactured nationalism will get the blame for any financial market problems, but we still have a few years left for that to simmer to a boil. That will make a great excuse for war, but the primary nations are not ready. -We still have not seen currency wars; there has been a lot of hyperbole, but we are not yet there. -Does there need to be a collapse to get the NWO fully in place? I think only the fear of a collapse will get us there. The globalists will remind us of a possible 2008 scenario and the the world will agree to whatever is proposed – even the mark. -As long as investors are trying to unwind debt obligations the USD will remain supported. Buy it on dips. -Corporations and governments are backing away from the hype of blockchain, as the reality sets in that it is still too primitive a technology. -If the USD remains firm, gold will struggle. Own gold if you live in a nation with poor monetary policies. Own it as unencumbered net worth. -As long as stocks like AAPL respond to good earnings stocks will remain elevated here. -Stocks look good as there is no where else to go with money. As long as there are major central banks buying back sovereign debt the yield curve will remain flat. -If things fall apart here the USFed can always crank up another program. Important Real Estate and Housing Update – A background to the future July 30th Update – Right mouse click here to download -Do a Google news search of “housing market” and every story on the first page paints a picture of doom. MSM is pointing us in a certain direction. The market is turning now. -Sales are dropping off as predicted and it is not because sellers are few. Supply will emerge as investors begin to unwind. The percentage of units owned by investors will always be greater than reported. -Despite what many in the alt-financial media proclaim, money is hard to come by. Many of my properties can no longer be used as collateral. Hard-money lenders are becoming much more discerning. What was collateral 2-3 years ago can no longer be used. -Higher interest rates do not necessarily mean lower prices. We must analyze why rates are rising in the first place. Rates rose profoundly in the late 70’s yet prices still rose. -Tax policies profoundly impact real estate prices. –1986 Tax Reform Act1997 Taxpayer Relief ActTax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 -The latest round of tax changes is beginning to put a dent in higher-priced, owner-occupied housing. This will trickle down to working class areas. It already has begun. -The 1997 Taxpayer Relief Act created a huge economic sector (home improvement and residential RE speculation). Home Depot would only be a mid-sized retailer, not a Dow Blue-Chip, but the cap gain exclusions created a huge economic sector that did not exist prior. Homeowners have become home-flippers, because of the cap-gains exclusions. -The Bush Sr. Cabal (e.g. Carlyle Group and Blackstone) made billions buying up real estate in the wake of the TRA of 1986 inspired bust. It almost brought down Prudential Securities. -Next downturn could be more like the late 80’s-early 90s, than last decade. But, the opportunities will flesh out and will be many. -Real Estate management takes a lot of knowledge and since time is our most precious commodity it is always a good time to begin investing in real estate. However, now is not the time to invest in a big way. Learn from hands-on experience and when the cycle turns we must be ready. Get your feet wet now. -I have not bought a new property since Spring 2016. I was buying in 2011-2015. I had two fallouts in the past year as I decided the market dynamics were changing. Many new investors are currently bidding up investment properties. This was just like in 2005.