A free link to the movie, Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984), from archive.org

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
― George Orwell, 1984

I often refer to George Orwell’s novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984), in my blog posts and podcasts as it is so timely. It is an evergreen story and seems more germane to today’s society than when it was written 70 years ago.

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”
― George Orwell, 1984

I came across a link to the movie adaptation of the novel that was released in 1984. You can find it here. If the link does not work you can cut and paste the following link:

https://archive.org/details/25434646

“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
― George Orwell, 1984

I recommend reading the book first, as the book version goes into much more detail with respect to INGSOC and the Newspeak language and dictionary. In my opinion, the 1984 movie version with John Hurt and Richard Burton is the best film adaptation of the novel.

“Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The  party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me.”
― George Orwell, 1984

The book may have been written 70 years ago, but it is still as fresh as the day George Orwell (Eric Blair) put pen to paper. The only difference is that most people don’t even care about the tyranny they are under. They view government as an ally.

 

The wealthy get wealthier; share buybacks keep stock prices elevated

Share buybacks lifting the major stock averages

I came across this Barron’s article over the weekend. I saved a copy of it for you to read as we need a subscription to access it. It is a discussion of corporate share buybacks.

Why the Buyback Boom is Bullish for Investors

Buybacks usually support stock prices by reducing share counts and boosting earnings per share. And companies that make announcements of big buybacks—like Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) stunning, new, $100 billion program—tend to be brimming with confidence in their C-suites.

Standard & Poor’s 500 companies are on track to announce $650 billion worth of buybacks this year, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate, smashing the previous record of $589 billion set in 2007.

Buybacks offer investors an effective “yield” of about 3%, calculated by dividing repurchases by the $23 trillion market value of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Combine that with the 1.9% current dividend yield and investors should get a nearly 5% combined yield this year.

Barron’s – Why the Buyback Boom Is Bullish for Investors (May 12th)

If we are to wonder why stocks continue to be supported here in the light of continued uncertainty, we have share buybacks to partially thank.

Warren Buffett may be a globalist shill, but he has a point

As a perpetual stock promoter and a large beneficiary of the bailouts from last decade, most in the alt-financial media proclaim that Warren Buffett is just a shill for the globalists; and in most respects they are correct. But, if we consider the amount of money being spent on stock buybacks, he has reason to be optimistic.  Taking share buybacks into account the combined yield of the S&P 500 is as high as 5%. So, as long as bond yields stay at a reasonably low level asset price inflation can continue. Stocks will yield more than bonds.

Of course, this is just essentially financial engineering, but these buyback programs can last years and can help the stock averages to move higher, even if the companies themselves are impacted by economic and political uncertainty.

Despite all the gloom and doom emanating out of the alt-financial media, especially from Zerohedge, asset prices continue to perform well. As long as the longer-dated bond yields stay at these levels or only move slightly higher things should hold up.

The reason why Warren Buffett and many traditional investors do not like bitcoin is because it does not generate income. I agree with this line of reasoning, but that does not mean it will be a terrible investment. However, if we are to survive we need to concentrate on acquiring assets that generate income. The catastrophe talk in the alt-media is designed from the top and is there to disenfranchise us from financial success.

The rich invest in income-producing assets

I came across this blog post from Martin Armstrong this past weekend and he illustrates this point clearly. The rich own assets that generate income, the poor work for a salary. While he blames government for the disparity of income, you and I know it is much larger than the governments.

You simply believe the propaganda of governments. The rich get richer by INVESTING in assets. They list Bill Gates among the top in the world. Do you really think one gets rich by making more per hour than the next guy? Wealth is created through assets – not wages.

Martin Armstrong – How the Rich Get Richer! (May 13th)

I know this financial system is satanic and rigged against the average person, but we cannot bank on it collapsing anytime soon. It can be propped up for much longer than we can imagine. All we need is another economic bust and the US Fed can conjure up another program that will help those who own assets. It seems that the wage slaves always get stuck with the short end of the stick. The Internal Revenue Code and the government programs ALWAYS help the asset owners, even if it’s in the guise of helping the poor.

Market Update – The dollar rally resumes and the petrodollar myth; asset markets showing renewed strength; Facebook may take over the crypto sphere

I have uploaded a new market update podcast for May 13, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below.  I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page.  The latest show is on the top of the page.

-S&P 600 Small Cap Index puts in a new all-time high on Friday, Russell 2000 close to new all-time high. Small cap stocks and tech outperforming S&P 500 and Dow, which are more dependent on cost of capital.
-Oil rising as costs of capital rise. XOP finally showing strength as more are convinced of the longevity of oil’s price rise.
-Small spec long on S&P eminis continue to grow. They are never right in the long run. Commercial shorts remain elevated.
-Gold Commercials covered a big part of their shorts as the dollar rallied. Gold could weaken if dollar rallies further, but 1300 looks firm.
-This current monetary system works well to those who understand it. Ask the landlords, private equity firms and wealthy if this system is broken and they will likely say it is fine. Ask the broke millennials who live at home with mom if it works and they will say otherwise.
-Beware of the charlatans and shillers of gloom and doom.  If the “petrodollar” is collapsing we should be buying income-producing assets. The petrodollar cannot collapse and asset prices fall at the same time. The alt-financial press cannot have it both ways.
-Chinese real estate investors are smarter than the patriots as they know what the dollar is doing and are buying to hold with their “worthless” dollars.
-The Crypto price fade coincides with Facebook’s announcement of their entry into blockchain and cryptocurrencies. I analyzed this threat a few weeks ago. The large corporations, with their strength of users, can overtake the cryptos with convenience and practicality.
-The crypto shilling reminds me of the real estate shilling of last decade and gold and silver of the beginning of this decade.

A rising dollar will be the cause of the next crisis

This crisis starts with a rising US dollar

As we have discussed in the past, I have contended that the primary error of the researchers in the financial alt-media is their insistence that the US dollar is in a structural bear market. Their reasoning was straight forward; the rising US Treasury debt levels would drag the dollar down into the abyss. The problem with this is that it is a linear analysis and fails to take into account the financial conditions of the other nations. The US has a comparative advantage and is better positioned to handle any upcoming debt crises that will come along.

Think about it; the US Fed is the only major central bank with the ability to actually restrict monetary policy. The other major central banks cannot even contemplate tightening monetary conditions. Despite the ever rising sea of red ink, the US is in a better position going into this next crisis. The emerging market economies will once again get hit hard. They are the most vulnerable to problems with dollar funding.

While investors have been focused on a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, a weaker Chinese yuan also threatens to heap pressure on emerging market assets that have already wiped out their gains for the year.

That’s because a pause in the yuan’s appreciation path would challenge a clutch of developing economies by hitting their trade competitiveness against China, according to Morgan Stanley.

“RMB up and USD down is the best world in which you can live,” said Hans Redeker, the bank’s London-based chief global currency strategist. “You have it easier on exports and funding, all at the same time.”

Bloomberg (Dollar-Plagued World Now Has Another Currency to Worry About) May 10th

Foreigners borrowing dollars are effectively shorting it
Global reserves – The US dollar still reigns supreme. Nothing can currently replace it.

As of the end of 2017 the US dollar comprised about 63% of the world’s currency reserves. This huge pool of liquidity provides foreign investors with easy access to dollar-based credit. As long as the US dollar remained at a relatively weak level borrowers around the globe could rely on cheap funding with competitive interest rates (rates that were usually lower than in their home countries).

The risk of foreigners borrowing dollars to save on interest costs is that it exposes them to currency risk. Their debt liabilities, which are denominated in dollars, are not matched up with their revenue (either taxes or sales in a local currency). Thus, we can observe many emerging market crises that have their genesis with this phenomenon. If the expectation of foreigners is to pay back their dollar-based debt with ever softer dollars they may be in for a shock.

As the above mentioned Bloomberg article discusses, there is a concern that the US dollar may continue to rally at the expense of the Chinese renmimbi. If this is the case, China will become more competitive vis-a-vis the emerging economies at the worst time. The emerging economies have dollar-based loans to service and if their exports drop they will be squeezed on both sides.

The US will be the least affected from the upcoming currency crisis

Now isn’t that ironic?

The dollar rally is now rippling through emerging markets, sparking steep falls in stocks, bonds, and their currencies wiping out whatever gains they thought were guaranteed. We are looking a devastation around the globe with the Turkish lira falling almost another 6%. Argentina’s peso is also in trouble as the central bank raised the interest rate to 40% trying to support the currency.

Martin Armstrong (The Dollar is Not Dead After All?) May 7th

 

The debts of governments around the globe are going to move up exponentially. This is very serious for some will raise taxes to try to keep the game going but that will cause even more deflation.

Martin Armstrong (BIG BANG is Here and Ticking) May 10th

A number of analysts are calling for lasting stagflation, but the problem with this analysis is that it fails to take into account that the end users of the dollar (you and me) are not getting paid more and do not have more dollars to spend.  The only way that there can be lasting inflation is if we began to receive direct pay raises and increases in benefit amounts. Based on the latest rounds of payroll data this does not seem to be taking place.

Furthermore, as Mr. Armstrong points out, rising tax rates from all sources is highly deflationary; it extracts from the tax payer’s spending power.  As a result prices can only rise so far.  The best cure for high prices is high prices. Moreover, as debt levels rise, the economic power is further drained and redirected to servicing more onerous levels of debt.

A rising dollar will hit Russia as well

Squeezed by ever-expanding U.S. sanctions, Vladimir Putin says he wants to dump the dollar. However, his central bank has been doing just the opposite.

In comments to lawmakers on Tuesday after his inauguration for a record fourth term as president, Putin said a “break” from the U.S. currency is necessary to bolster Russia’s “economic sovereignty,” especially in light of recent penalties and what he called politically motivated restrictions on trade.

According to the central bank’s latest data, the dollar’s share in its (Russia’s) international reserves climbed to nearly 46 percent in 2017 from just over 40 percent the previous year. Meanwhile, the euro accounted for almost 22 percent, sliding from more than 32 percent in 2016 and as high as 43.8 percent in 2009. The stockpile was at $459.9 billion in April, the highest since 2014.

Putin doesn’t have much to show for years of decrying the “dollar monopoly” that allows the U.S. to act like a “parasite” on the global economy. Now he has to contend with a deepening standoff with the U.S. after the latest round of sanctions in April ripped through Russia’s currency and stocks and cut off a major company’s access to Western financial markets.

Bloomberg (Putin Wants to `Break’ With the Dollar But Dumps Euros Instead) May 10th

While Russia is considered an emerging economy, as its economy is highly dependent on oil, a rising oil price will help its prospects and its ability to service its debt, especially its dollar denominated debt. Despite its anti-American rhetoric, Russia is taking appropriate action; it is increasing its dollar reserves at the right time.

Conclusion

The best scenario for the global economy will be for the US dollar to maintain its current value or depreciate slightly. This helps to keep dollar priced commodities reasonably priced, while helping the emerging economies export markets to remain competitive. If the dollar continues to rise all bets are off as debt deflation will overwhelm many areas of the globe and dollar-denominated debts will become increasingly unserviceable.

The people in the US will be the least likely affected by all this and may actually see some prices drop as import prices will begin to fade. But the falling row of global dominoes will end here in the US.

May 10th Show – Who is our real enemy? A case study in deception

I have uploaded a new show podcast for May 10, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below.  I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page.  The latest show is on the top of the page.

Iran’s Parliament Building – A pyramid with 33 windows

-Is Iran our real enemy? Is it China or Russia? The real war is against us.
-The end time deception is coming from all angles and most who claim to be washed are the ones falling into the trap.
-Matthew 24:22-24 King James Version (KJV)
22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect’s sake those days shall be shortened.
23 Then if any man shall say unto you, Lo, here is Christ, or there; believe it not.
24 For there shall arise false Christs, and false prophets, and shall shew great signs and wonders; insomuch that, if it were possible, they shall deceive the very elect.
-Most getting their news from the alt-sites are just as deceived as those who do not.
-Remember Jade Helm? A case study in deception.
-Logic fallacies in the patriot media revisited.
-Anyone borrowing US dollars is essentially shorting the dollar. As the dollar rises credit gets more expensive and things begin to fall apart. If you are looking for a collapse you may be right, but if you are reading the typical alt-financial press and looking at their YouTube videos you will still lose.
-Many “patriot” and alt-media sites and social media pages are traced back to Russian servers. About half of all my website spam and hack attempts come from the Russian Federation. I get about 100 hack attempts a day.
-Google and YouTube recommend alt-financial personalities and their videos that tow the propaganda of RT, Sputnik News, PressTV, etc. Obviously, something much larger is at play. Watch a YouTube video and see what is recommended. These people do not know they are wrong, but they certainly aren’t experts and most of their previous recommendations have been consistently incorrect. They do appreciate the clicks.
-Despite not having any definitive physical evidence, the UFO/alien agenda is as strong as ever.
-Anyone telling you the dollar is collapsing is either disingenuous or ignorant. Either way we need to avoid their advice and predictions.
-We do not have to have a collapse to get a new monetary system. Only the fear of a collapse can get the job done. Those screaming collapse are doing the globalists a great service.

May 2nd Show; The countdown continues – The good news is that we still have time prepare and all that collapse talk is a diversion

I have uploaded a new show podcast for May 2, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below.  I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page.  The latest show is on the top of the page.

-There is still time to prepare. I guess at least five years. Russia is not as powerful as it claims to be. The alt-right thinks Russia is more mighty than it really is currently.
-Western technology transfers prop up the Russian military and keeps it as the manufactured adversary for the upcoming global conflict that will provide the elites with the needed force majeure to reconfigure the monetary system.
-Russian media outfits propagandize Putin’s diplomatic prowess.  Is Putin the master statesman that his propaganda outfits and the alt-media make him out to be?
-Russia’s economy is a one-legged stool and is smaller than South Korea’s. Russia hardly has the capacity to maintain any long-lasting war stance. Last year, Russia’s economy was smaller than Spain’s. Russia has the bombs to destroy a country, but is too weak to do anything else.
-The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 knocked $1 trillion off of Russia’s GDP. Western bankers sent the former Soviets a message.
-China seems to be burning all their economic bridges in the pursuit of economic growth. To the untrained eye it looks insane, but if we consider a future force majeure, it all makes sense.
-Russia and China are not yet ready to strike the west. China was concerned that Trump was going to take out North Korea, and ChiCom forced Kim Jong-Un to break out the peace pipe and delay WWIII. The new-found rapprochement is a delay tactic.
-The alt-media seems to forget that the government in China currently in power was responsible for 100 million deaths. They seem to forget that the current Russian government is just the disguised Soviet Russian regime, which was responsible for scores of millions of deaths.  They are our adversaries and would do the same to the west if given the chance.
-The elites gain nothing from collapsing the system. They would only be blamed.
-Never underestimate the elites’ ability to invent new programs to prop up their monetary system.
-Most look at the west in amazement, believing it to be collapsing. An intended result of this is to make the US and the West look weak, so that China and Russia are lured into a false sense of confidence against their future adversary.
-Most of the collapse talk in the alt-media comes from the top and has been spread by Western intelligence as well as Russian intelligence.