I have uploaded a new market update podcast for April 22, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
Who says we weren’t warned? Many people claim to know catastrophe looms, but they go broke waiting for it to happen. We need to know precisely in order to stay solvent. This has been simmering on the back burner since late January.
-Since late January (1/26) 10-year UST prices have fallen and yields have moved up 30 bps. We are about to move above 3%. The elites warned us.
-What are the implications of a rising yield curve? I do not see imminent inversion as inflation is rising
-Greenspan warned us on January 31st. We are in a bond bubble and the US Fed policy is forcing its unwind. Done to accelerate the process.
-Yellen and Brainard both talked about extremely high commercial real estate prices. By extension they are talking of bond yields as commercial RE is priced more objectively. Residential real estate is vulnerable here. Supply can appear out of nowhere, especially in the emotional market of residential real estate. Investors are stretched and rising yields can force liquidations.
-US mortgage rates are the highest since late 2013.
-Since late January, I have been in all cash, except for short-term trading positions
-I have no pension or defined contribution plan assets. I know what’s coming. I place my money in investments I have control over.
-S&P 500 futures are stretched here as spec shorts are at historic highs. Something has to give. Short covering rally? Based on chart and market action stocks look tired. It could be stock longs are just hedging.
-Oversized spec short position in the 10-year UST futures persists
-USDX forming a huge bear flag since late January and another down leg looks possible. If yields on longer dated treasuries move up here the USD can see further downside
-Weak dollar is a result of poor monetary policy.
-Gold can’t get above 1362 on a close. Silver trying to break out. Inflation measures increasing?
-Commentary of yesterday’s blog post. The governments will raise taxes and take the pensions before they introduce a new system. The average person will lose big. Pension nationalization is taking money from the worker and reimbursing the government for the elites raping the system. It’s just disguised wealth consolidation.
The elites created the fiat monetary system to consolidate the world’s wealth and power
The elites of the secret societies control the central banks and have used this interlocking network to consolidate the world’s wealth and power. These privately-run central banks control virtually all nations, including China and Russia. Through their monetary printing press these elites have bought up and gained effective control of the media, governments, all large public corporations, and the politicians who run for office. They now control the technology that is released to society as well as the educational system, so they have completely brainwashed much of the population. This has left the average person ignorant and extremely vulnerable to each economic cycle.
Most readers of the alt-financial media view this monetary system as fatally flawed, but to the globalists it was designed perfectly. For instance, we can tell this system has worked as intended by measuring the consolidation of wealth by these powers. It is estimated that by 2030 the top 1% will own roughly 2/3 of all global wealth. Imagine the acceleration of the process during the next boom/bust cycle. As you can see from the accompanying chart, the top 1% have stepped up this process since the last recession and now own at least half the world’s wealth.
Thus, between now and 2030 most of the unwitting participants in this global economy (the average person) are going to lose much of what they still own. These people will be our family members, friends, and neighbors. Based on these trends, the globalists still have some work to do. Too many people around the world still own too much stuff and that needs to change.
The elites need to create another bust, but they need to divert us away from the real cause; central bank policy
We need to understand that this current monetary system still has some life left; it is the vehicle for the elites’ wealth consolidation. So, this current boom cycle and upcoming bust phase has been carefully planned in advance. We are analyzing it in real time. It will be a tough several years for most people, but for those who understand and take action they can come out fine.
As I have discussed in my previous shows and blog posts, the owners of the central banks need to create a red herring and divert the people’s attention away from the reality of the situation. So, when things blow up, why not blame nationalism and protectionism?
On Friday morning, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that rising protectionism poses a risk to the eurozone economy and stressed that the ECB would be cautious about removing its monetary stimulus.
What an interesting idea… the ECB is being disingenuous when it says it will wind down its monetary stimulus. It cannot as the weaker eurozone nations are on permanent life support and that in order to keep the euro intact permanent stimulus is required. Unless control of national fiscal policy and government spending is brought under a eurozone umbrella, the eurozone will eventually unravel as any remaining confidence in the stimulus program will dry up. As we can see from the accompanying chart of eurozone 10-year yields, there is still some confidence in the ability of the ECB to hold things together. It remains to be seen how long this confidence will last.
Mario Draghi knows things are tenuous and that he can never stop monetary stimulus. The Bank of Japan has been keeping the Japanese financial system on life support for over 20 years, so never underestimate the ECBs ability to keep things going for longer than we can imagine. However, Draghi is not stupid. He is just carrying out orders so, why not blame protectionism? It was the reason the globalists gave for causing the great depression and WWII. They are planning on it working again.
President Trump and protectionism will be blamed for the next bust, but the central banks will cause it
Here is a 62-year chart of the federal funds rate with the domestic recessionary periods superimposed.
My contention enumerated in my articles from 2013 was that the US Fed should have been raising the Fed funds rates as far back as 2012. While it didn’t have to terminate its QE purchase program, a rise in the Fed funds rates could have helped to normalize monetary policy without being overly restrictive. It could have signaled to the markets that the US Fed was becoming more confident in the economy, while providing the liquidity to keep the “green shoots” growing. It could have raised rates two to three times to the rate back to about 1.00%. In the whole scheme it would not have really had much of an impact.
Unfortunately, the Fed did not commence raising rates until the end of 2015; three full years later than it should have started. This allowed asset prices to grow in most sectors (e.g. equities, real estate, non-fungible assets, sovereign debt) and until January of this year stock prices continued to climb. As of this writing, real estate continues to rise, but for how much longer?
Here is an unemployment chart spanning the past 25 years. We can see that unemployment is at a cyclical low. It cannot go down much further.
The bottom line is that it’s time for the next bust. Everything is signalling it and the elite need it to consolidate the world’s wealth and power. But think about this; even if we have another depression why would we have to jettison the current monetary system?
The current system still has life left; do not count it out
My one contention with the alt-financial media is that they are convinced this current monetary system is going to fail very soon. I have been reading these articles for 15 years. This is a misguided concept if for one reason; the elites have nothing yet available to replace it. Let’s look at some of the ideas that will not work
The IMF and the SDR
The concept of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) has been around since 1969, but the IMF itself admits that it has never been a practical vehicle for global trade. Yet, I continually see articles mentioning this as a replacement for the US dollar. The SDR is neither a currency nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.
Think about the logic error; why would someone who wishes to circumvent the US dollar or other fiat currencies go and use a basket of these broken currencies in the form of an SDR? Exporters want to get paid in their currency or a liquid currency, not an SDR. Their employees don’t want to get paid in SDRs.
I continually read about those who claim that blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will replace the dollar and other fiat currencies. This will probably indeed be true at some point, but it is clear that there are still major technological limitations currently holding cryptocurrencies back – they are too slow, unstable, and the technology behind them needs to advance greatly. We are still at least 10 years away from cryptocurrencies having the potential in taking the mantle away from the US dollar.
There will be a time, but great strides in technological advancement need to occur in the crypto sphere for them to pose a challenge to any reserve currency. They may currently be a store of wealth, but that does not mean they are capable of replacing transaction currencies.
I have analyzed this in the past. China is an export-driven economy and thus relies on trade surpluses to grow its economy. As a result there are not enough yuan outside China to facilitate global trade. In addition, the ChiCom government still effectively manages the yuan, so if many of the yuan ended up outside of China the Chinese government and PBOC would lose control over its management of the yuan. Only a free-floating yuan would pose a threat to the dollar hegemony and China is not ready for that.
Chinese futures markets are yuan-denominated and are primarily only opened to domestic entities. Chinese oil and distillate producers and distributors could benefit from yuan-denominated futures contracts, but that’s because their revenue is denominated in yuan.
I’m sorry, but the yuan is still about 1.25% of global reserves and will never be a threat to the US dollar in its current form. Besides, China doesn’t want to make the needed sacrifices (e.g. run large trade deficits and discontinue central management of the yuan) to make the yuan a dollar replacement.
Gold may be a store of wealth, but the fiat monetary system has grown so large that if the world’s major currencies tied themselves to some sort of gold backing the economy would collapse overnight as there would not be enough money growth to service outstanding debt.
Never underestimate the ability of the globalists to keep this current system going. Just because the US 10-year yield may spike to 5% does not mean we have a collapse and a new system will magically appear. Only a war will bring the needed force majeure. President Trump’s protectionist stance will only be the excuse for the next bust, but the show will go on.
There needs to be a replacement system, but there currently is not one publicly planned as there are no current practical replacements to the US dollar. The Chinese yuan cannot replace it. Gold can’t replace it. A basket of fiat currencies such as the SDR will not be able to replace it. Cryptocurrencies are not yet ready for prime time.
We are being set up for the next bust. How we respond to it will determine whether we end up on the losing end or come out ahead. From what I can tell, most following the alt-financial media and those supporting Trump will be the biggest losers. Of course, this is being done by design.
I have uploaded a new show podcast for April 19, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
-Four logic fallacies that have turned the patriot movement and the alt-financial press into shadows of their former selves:
Fallacy of Opposition
Argument from Incredulity
-Just because someone is our enemy’s enemy doesn’t make him our ally
-Just because our enemy has taken a certain stance on a topic doesn’t mean we should take the opposite
-Only the change agents in the alt-media proclaim the liberals are the conservative’s enemies. Most liberals are our allies. The fights are manufactured and those on both sides are being destroyed by the same elites of the secret societies.
-The fallacy of opposition has ensured forever that the patriot movement will be nothing more than a reactive and partisan movement that will affect no lasting change.
-Through logic error the patriot movement has become nothing more than a release valve for the elites
-MSM Red herring arguments ensure that the conservative and patriot movements will be on the defensive forever. The change agents that have been approved by the secret societies and are the key players in the alt- and patriot-media will continue to receive the needed attention to consolidate the patriot agenda and complete its destruction.
-This agenda consolidation has ensured that the topics of importance to the patriots will never receive the light of day.
-Many who discuss conspiracy in the alt-financial media (e.g. Martin Armstrong and most gold shills) have decided that the conspiracy for world government is just too large to contemplate, so they have decided that it doesn’t exist. They argue erroneously with the argument from incredulity.
-The transformation of the patriot movement has been one of the most sophisticated Delphi-technique experiments ever carried out. It has been successful
-Gold shills look to our enemy’s enemies (e.g. Venezuela, Iran, China, Russia) for help in dismantling our Federal Reserve System of debt slavery. Talk about a twisted version of the Stockholm Syndrome….
Only a few traders (or one) can manipulate many illiquid markets
It is the conventional practice of many traders and market observers to match up and make a connection between the short-term price movements of an asset and its underlying news. This may work in most instances, but when it comes to the less liquid markets such as gold, silver, and bitcoin, sometimes we need to just chalk it up to the trading decisions of only a few (or one) players.
If you follow the gold and silver markets you know what I mean. For example, despite the war drums supporting gold I noted in my earlier post that the price of gold could not hold above the $1,362 support level that many traders deemed important. If the $1,362 support held on the close it would have attracted technical traders on the long side. Over 100 tons of paper gold was created towards the end of Wednesday’s trading and sold into the market as prices rose to almost $1,370. We know what happened next.
But even with this spiky history, bitcoin’s sudden price surge on 12 April was unprecedented. In less than 60 minutes, bitcoin’s value shot up by more than $1,000, driven by the biggest one hour trade volume in history of over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is probably the least liquid market out there
While the market for silver is much less liquid than gold’s it is still more liquid than bitcoin’s. Thus, it can theoretically take perhaps one key player to move the price of bitcoin. So, if I were an institutional investor looking to go long on bitcoin and influence the market at the same time, I would spot well-timed vulnerabilities in the market and pounce. Thus, I theorize that perhaps only one investor or a few acting in concert with several hundred million dollars took advantage of the extremely oversold conditions in bitcoin to make a statement.
“Over the past two years, bitcoin has exhibited significant volatility,” bitcoin expert David Shrier told The Independent. “It’s important to remember that it is a highly speculative asset and a handful of actors have the ability to significantly impact the price.”
Mr Shrier points to the power that just a handful of traders hold over the market. The huge holdings that these traders have lead to a disproportionate market impact.
This is a view shared by Olga Feldmeier, CEO of blockchain startup Smart Valor, who suggests the rapid rise could be the result of a single actor.
“I personally think that this rise was due to a large institutional investor,” Ms Feldmeier told The Independent. “Apart from George Soros, there are a lot of institutions, hedge funds and big investors waiting for the right time to step in.
“As the price increase happened on crossing the $7,000 line, and came initially from just one exchange – Bitfinex – this indicated that it was pulled by a large institutional purchase order. Later it spread to other exchanges and marketplaces.”
Here is an article titled, A single trader could have caused the price of bitcoin to rise over 700% in 2013. The article states that a massive jump in bitcoin price back in 2013 has been linked to two accounts trading on the Mt. Gox platform. Bitcoin had a volatile year in 2013, when prices dramatically spiked from around $150 to more than $1,000. Research has found that the price action was likely driven by fake trades initiated by one or two big players.
So, in a relatively orderly market, the news flow can explain the market action. However, there are just some instances when the news flow cannot justify the price movement. Thursday’s bitcoin market action was one of those times. Don’t bother looking to the news to make sense of the trading.
This is the one reason why I never short into rapidly falling markets nor buy into quickly rising ones; this is the worst mistake a trader can make. The reversals can be so vicious that one poorly timed trade can wipe out an entire account’s equity. Fight the urge to do what most money-losers do. We should sell into price strength and buy into price weakness.
We all may have differing opinions on what bitcoin means and what its future holds, but we cannot deny that it was extremely oversold in the short-term. I held a small long trading position before the price explosion and was hoping to add on further weakness. That weakness never came as bitcoin’s price drove higher by over $1,000. Someone wanted to make a statement.
It remains to be seen if bitcoin can continue to build on its new-found momentum. If it does there are many traders, shorting into a compressed market, who wish they never got involved with bitcoin. The only thing worse than buying high and selling low is buying high and shorting low.
I have been a student of the markets since the late 80’s and I am having a difficult time trying to comprehend the trends taking place. The stock markets have been juiced to a large extent and the sovereign debt market has been supported by immense central bank intervention. This has created all sorts of market distortions that have benefited risk takers at the expense of those who seek risk aversion. How long this can maintain itself is up to the elites who own the central banks.
kakistocracy- A system of government which is run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens.
To make matters worse, the G20 group of nations are being governed by a group of individuals that seem unsuitable for governing. There is a term for this; kakistocracy. It is a system of government which is run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens. The elites of these secret societies need to convince us that the nation-state is an anachronism and that only a global government will solve these problem. Throw in a future war and the elites of these secret societies will have the perfect solution for us.
There is some good news; there are a few observations we can make that can greatly assist us as things continue to come unglued. We know for a fact that this asset cycle is very long in the tooth. Central bank intervention may be propping up the financial system by keeping the sovereign debt markets intact, but it cannot last as this investor confidence will continue to wane.
Get out of as much debt as possible
If you are a student of conspiracy then you know that debt ensnares people into a life of servitude. The boom/bust cycles are created by the central banks to consolidate the world’s wealth at the expense of you and me. However, if you are reading this you have a leg up on the rest of the population. You understand this process and perhaps have a better understanding of this process of impoverishment.
The time to take on debt is at market bottoms. The time to get out of debt is near market peaks. We borrow and buy when prices are cheap. We sell and pay down debt when prices are high.
Let’s put this into perspective. I came across an article titled, America Has a Financial Literacy Problem. It explains why the average American cannot grasp even the most basic personal financial matters. There is a vested interest by the powers-that-be to keep us in the dark; we become the unwitting victims of the boom/bust cycles. We transfer our net worth and our future earnings potential to the elites. Now, if you are reading this I am sure you are already savvy enough to comprehend this financial and economic system and how it is rigged against us. This is the first step in overcoming.
My advice at this point is to pare down as much debt as possible, including mortgage debt. The less debt we carry, the better we can handle the down markets and take advantage of any opportunities that will present themselves in the future. Do not be too concerned that we may miss out of that extra 10% of market return. The downside can be fierce.
A few market observations
Never underestimate the governors of our kakistocracy to undermine the markets, but the longer the US stock indexes remain at this level and stagnate the better chance we have of another leg-up in the markets. Let’s take a look at the market report technicals and the bearish sentiment.
Speculative shorts on index futures are at cyclical highs. Look at the large short position on the commitment of traders report for the S&P 500 e-mini futures and I think you get the picture. Granted, many go short as a hedge for long positions, but we can never discount the chances of a sharp rally. Thus the longer stock prices stay here the better chance we have of a sharp short-covering rally as these shorts will have to cover eventually. The bad news can only work for so long.
The long-end of the US Treasury yield curve has topped out temporarily and it remains to be seen where interest rates will head next. With this said, I can look at the probabilities to see that if the US Fed continues to raise the Fed funds rate and unwind its balance sheet odds are in the favor of yield increases in mortgages and borrowing costs for you and me.
The yield curve is coming closer to an inversion, where longer-dated yields are lower than short-term rates, but there is still room to go. Regardless, as the US Fed raises rates, borrowing costs will continue to increase. Thus, it is never an auspicious time to take on debt in a regime of rising rates. If longer-dated yields stabilize here we can see further upside with the equity markets. But, even if the Dow goes to 30,000, is the heightened volatility worth the extra 20% of return? This is a question only you can answer.
I came across a blog post from Martin Armstrong titled, Draghi Confirms ECB Will not End QE. I agree with Armstrong that the European Central Bank can never stop its QE program; the PIIGS nations are on permanent life support. However, I disagree that it is Mario Draghi’s fault. This system is being propped up until the force majeure of war. Draghi is just a puppet carrying out orders.
The speculation is reaching a crescendo. As a Realtor I receive a lot of real estate related junk mail. As an investor I receive a lot of phone calls and letters from other investors looking to buy my properties. This is an example of the garbage I get in the mail. It goes to show you that the reckless speculation has reached a fever pitch and that the average person is in on it. When everyone is doing it who will be left standing when the music stops playing?
As a 20-year real estate investor I observe that the increased letter and phone call campaigns trying to rip off other home owners is another indication of a market top.
If we are sensible in our investments and leverage is low to moderate we can withstand the growing storm in front of us. For real estate investors it makes little sense to sell a profitable portfolio of properties when the taxes and closing costs can easily be greater than any potential unrealized losses on prices. Plus, it takes a lot of work to procure and establish a rental. However, if an investor is overly stretched here with leverage and is concentrating in speculative areas the writing is on the wall. I have attached links to some articles that illustrate this point.
The whole irony with leverage and borrowing is that it is always the best time to borrow at the bottom of any cycle as prices and deals will always be the most abundant. Now is time to unwind debt burdens. So, the best time to borrow to buy real estate was in 2011-2012. The worst time to borrow is now. If you are buying an owner-occupied house now that is another matter as long as we are sensible with our purchases.
For investors in working class areas these properties should hold up well as demographic and market fundamentals support rents.
Gold and silver
If you have been following my blog and podcasts, you know my observation that if gold is to surge higher it is important that gold retakes $1,362 on a closing basis. We came close a couple days ago as gold was almost touching $1,370. However, the powers-that-be do not want gold rising above this importance threshold and made certain that gold faded below that important number going into Wednesday’s close.
The elites own gold, maybe we should, too. But, own it for the right reasons. We need to view the precious metals as the only effective avenue for getting money outside the system.
I came across this Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee’s blog post titled, Craig Hemke: A lesson in suppression. It illustrates the point that I am sure most reading are already aware of; the prices of gold and silver are manipulated and suppressed.
Complaining about it will do no good. It will release our frustration, but we need to come to terms that all the markets are managed, including the gold and silver markets. We should not hold gold and silver (even platinum as it is very cheap compared to the other metals) for speculative purposes. We need to view the precious metals as the only effective avenue for getting money outside the system. But understand that once we get our money outside the system it cannot be used for investment and leverage. We should park profits of investment and labor into gold and silver and it should never really be more than 10-15% of a portfolio.
The risk of confiscation is low. Why would the governments want to confiscate it when so few people even own it? I bet you the elites own a lot of gold; they know how important it is.
We need to be ready for anything that the elites of these secret societies throw at us and if we are running with a debt millstone we will be the latest victim. We need to be prepared for tight monetary policy and the ramblings and flip-flop tweet storms from the puppets of our kakistocracy. We need to remain liquid and agile for the next bust. The causes of this accelerating bust cycle may differ from all the other ones preceding it, but the result will be the same. Those who do what everyone else is doing will end up on the losing end.
I have uploaded a new show podcast for April 11, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
-The concept of truth. What is truth? Truth is good as long as it maintains the hierarchy and control. Change agents use truth when it is expedient.
-The gold shills have been wrong for years, but don’t tell them they may have some misguided theories. They may lose business.
-An analysis of John 11. Despite seeing all the miracles the Jews didn’t want to know the truth. The priests and Pharisees rejected the truth in order to maintain their hegemony and status over the people.
-A mark of a controlled media; their opposition is wicked and evil. The patriot media is nothing but a controlled opposition where truth takes the backseat in order to maintain the hierarchy and control over the proles.
-Another sign of a controlled media is that they reinforce the confirmation bias of its listeners and followers. This assists the elites of the secret societies to fracture and fragment society so that there is never any serious opposition.
-Alex Jones custody battle legal fees amounted to about $6 mil. (sounds very Christian)
-Truth is only dispensed on a as-needed basis.
-Those of authority and influence can only be undermined with truth. The Patriot media’s brand of truth is about as distorted as the MSM’s brand of truth.
-Trump supporters will be the most adversely impacted from Trump’s profligacy.
-The Republican Party is now owned by Donald Trump. The party’s key figures are jumping ship.
In order for the elites of these secret societies to continue to step up the process of promulgating their new world order they need to consolidate as much of the world’s wealth as possible.
We discussed how the private central banks are nothing but wealth consolidation schemes. Through the power of the money printing and credit creation/destruction process these elites are able to buy out the governmental structures of every nation in the world. They control the US, China, and Russia and are just playing them off one another. They have a firm grip on the Democrats and Republicans, the left and right, and the Trump administration.
The new world order does not emerge overnight. The process is long with this latest phase taking decades. However, in order to affirm their grip on power these elites need to continue this wealth consolidation process until the tops eventually own it all. With this in mind, I have attached a link to an article from the Guardian titled, Richest 1% on target to own two-thirds of all wealth by 2030.
From what I can tell the top of these societies are doing a fine job as the world’s population marches toward oblivion. The proles continue to look for false boogie men and fake left/right dividing issues.
The good news is that these elites still do not own enough of the world’s wealth. The downside is that they control enough to cause the boom/bust cycles needed to get to their desired goal.
I hope you and I can stay focused, so that we do not become one of the billions of powerless debt slaves that will have no choice but to accept the new world order in its final form after their final economic collapse. We need to be patient and march forward. If we are to affect change we need to start with our own matters.
I have uploaded a new podcast for April 8, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
-Forget the hard-line Chicom stance of selling its US treasuries; they only amount to $1.2 trillion and the US Fed can buy that back in open market operations.
-Chicom treasury unloading threats are more effective as threats. If they sell, it would only eliminate their leverage. There is nowhere for them to park their proceeds. The USD is about 63% of global currency reserves.
-Trump tweets becoming childish. Will they lose their effectiveness in moving the markets?
-I bet you Steve Mnuchin told his buddies to short the S&P futures before his economic trade war comments on Friday. 80% of all stock trading profits made on inside information.
-Trump anti-Amazon tweets welcomed by shareholders as they can buy on the dips
-10-year treasury shorts at historic highs. Yields continue to pull back
-Technical analysis on the S&P, Nasdaq 100, Dow futures
-Cash is still king. Please stay as liquid as possible
-No Amazon antitrust actions as long as AMZN shareholders continue to make money. If AMZN falls to 1,000 and below shareholders will begin to hate Bezos and will want his head on a platter.
-Catastrophic loss of assets leads to a much shorter lifespan. I hope my blog and show can help people make better financial decisions, so they can be effective in fighting our loss of liberties.
-If we are too worried trying to pay our bills every month there is not enough brain power left to contemplate the world.
-Gold commercial shorts cover tons and add to longs, but silver and platinum lag. Au/Pl ratio at historic highs.
I have uploaded a new show podcast for April 4, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
-Things are looking to unravel over the next 12-24 months, but from what I can determine most in the alt-and patriot-media are going to get it wrong.
-The concept of the petrodollar is a misguided concept. Despite the dollar-bearish activity of the Fed balance sheet unwinding the dollar is supported here. -Chinese renminbi was 1.23% of total global currency reserves in 2017. The US dollar was about 63%; barely changed from a decade ago. Hardly the evidence provided by the dollar-bashers.
-It is impossible for the ChiCom government to make the yuan a reserve currency. China is a centrally-managed, export-driven economy, so there are not enough yuan outside China to make an impact on the world’s financial markets.
-Foreigners don’t even want to own the yuan. ChiCom doesn’t want foreigners to own it either, because it would lose control over its monetary fixing. -the US is already the world’s largest energy producer and by next year the US will be the world’s largest oil producer. So much for the petrodollar going down in flames. The increased amount of oil the US is going to pump out of the ground over the next several years would make China blush.
-Until one recognizes the real adversary he or she will continue to make the wrong financial decisions.
-Our adversaries are manufactured for us. Our real ones remain in the shadows.
-Change agents in our midst. They are doing an effective job dismantling movements from within.
-Trump’s tweets of Amazon are very beneficial to Amazon as it redirects us from the real problems Amazon poses to the economy to ones of mindless political and relatively trivial rancor.
-Trump is a change agent on par with the ones from Cointelpro. He is a liberal democrat from NYC and was a big supporter of President Clinton and NY Senator Clinton. He uses his supporters as a means to an end.
-Trump is just carrying out orders to help the elites manufacture confrontation. The result from these manufactured confrontations will be very real and will adversely impact his supporters more than any other demographic group.
I have uploaded a new podcast for April 1, 2018. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen or you can listen on the link below. I have included links to relevant articles and media on the Show Archives page. The latest show is on the top of the page.
-Socialism is making housing less affordable. It’s structural and permanent, regardless of what happens to house prices and mortgage rates.
-Social programs are popular with the masses, because the true costs are never quantified. The true costs result in lower standards of living via higher housing, medical, and education costs. The costs of daily life become oppressive to the average person, but he or she never can make the connection between government social spending and his or her busted out economic prospects.
-Open borders is great for real estate investors as it drives rents higher. Opens borders is a necessity for socialism to work, as socialism drive child costs higher. This results in lower native birth rates and the need to lower the wage base by immigration.
-Socialism requires financial and monetary engineering. Learn to make money in this environment. We need to complain less and invest more.
-10 and 30 year USTs showing signs of life. US yield curve compressing. There is still room to go and the 2-years can still rise against the longer end. 10yr/2yr spread is 47 bps, the lowest in 10 years.
-If we go back to the late ’70s the 10yr/2yr spread often becomes inverted. Going back 50 years, it is always negative preceding a recession.
-Fading long yields telling me that economic softness in future is probable.
-US dollar weakness a sign of the unwinding Fed balance sheet.
-TNX spec shorts remain near historic highs. Higher 10-year prices?
-Gold can’t get above 1362 close. Gold in isolation looks good and 1300 is new 1270. Forming an ascending triangle, but spec longs remain elevated and platinum/silver/miner prices holding gold back.
-Gold/platinum ratio still near historic highs. Needs to drop below 1.25 for gold to rally. Historic average is .85
-Real estate looks OK here. 30-year mortgage of 4.5% is fine if there are no spikes. Long end of yield supporting low rates.
-Total Fed assets fell by $9 bil last week. The unwind continues.
-Stocks struggle as a result. S&P and Dow Support levels discussed.
-Cryptocurrency summary and bitcoin analysis.
-Rental properties are still a good bet if they have good cap rates and IRRs with respect to historic norms.