July 12th Market Update – Tight ranges for everything, silver holding its own

I have uploaded a new Market Update podcast for July 12, 2017. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen. The latest show is on the top of the page.

-Gold and silver neutral, but looking good for trading. Silver holding up well after flash crash. To test 50-day mva?
-Bonds in tight moving average ranges
-Stocks on fire. Dow new all-time high. Spoos keep trending up near all-time highs. Nasdaq 100 futures; first full day above 50-day average since last month.
-6.5 trillion in global debt still at negative yields
-BOJ and ECB buying $120 billion a month. No problems with Greek and lower credit debt as long as central banks remain on the bid.
-States may be insolvent, but the central banks can keep them going.

July 12th Show – A Half-Hour Rambling Rant (School’s Out)

I have uploaded a new show podcast for July 12, 2017. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen. The latest show is on the top of the page.

-The Kayfabe wrestling match continues. It’s the democrat/liberals vs. Republicans/Patriots tag-team match and Alex Jones is Vince McMahon. The Patriots are just as unwashed as anyone else.
-How is Trump working out for you? The Patriots have such a vested interest in seeing their man succeed that they can never admit they have been duped by a master showman.
-My podcast downloads number between 150-200, so I don’t care anymore what I say. My blog posts get as many as 1200 views. So, my research will be written.
-All the straw-man adversaries of the patriot and false-right movements have been vetted and pre-approved by the Banking families for your approval or derision. It is just like Wrestlemania. Grab a chair and enjoy the show!
-The USA will be the Nazi-Germany of WW III. We are to be the embarrassed country this time around. Trump is doing a great job. His promoter, AJ, is making sure that the globalists are getting the desired results.
-The Bible vs. American Christianity; Two different philosophies.
-We will not “turn” this around. The 30-year old population is too immature, amoral, and subjective. They are adult children; MarketWatch say so. It’s over. 70-year olds no longer have any wisdom to pass on, they are struggling to remain cool and relevant.
-A personal story about how understanding the psychology of the average police officer comes in handy for me. I have been pulled over 4-5 times since I have become washed and I have never gotten a ticket. The last time, the officer shook my hand and never asked for my paperwork.

If Someone has a Problem with the IRS, Deal Honestly and Directly With them

When it comes to the IRS, I am sure we know of someone who has been audited or has received a tax judgment. We read stories everyday in the mainstream and alternative media about the capricious IRS and how they ruin people’s lives. But, if we take a step back we see that the number of individuals in many of the stories numbers in the hundreds; and this is over a span of years.

The news media plants stories of heavy-handedness by the IRS to scare the public into compliance

Here is an article titled, IRS shuts down mom and pop dressmaker, sells dresses within hours.  It was covered nationwide on all the major outlets.

The article says that the business owners dispute that they owed the IRS any taxes. The government says they owe for the 2005, 2008 and 2010 tax years.

“The taxpayer’s tax returns on file with the IRS reflect that the tax year at issue generated a net operating loss carryover, not a taxable amount,” the suit says.

The IRS declined to comment, saying its policy doesn’t allow statements about specific cases. The Justice Department’s tax division defended the agents’ actions in court filings, however, and has asked a federal judge to dismiss some claims in the lawsuit.

What gets me is that this auction is the result of problems going as far back as business owner’s 2005 returns. I am sure there was animosity on both side of the negotiation. The fact the IRS held off as long as it did is remarkable. Perhaps the business owners should have used another tax accountant.

When it comes to seizing property the IRS likes to work fast, so they are most likely going to seize bank accounts. Here is an article titled, The IRS took millions from innocent people because of how they managed their bank accounts, inspector general finds. The IRS always tries to seize the most liquid assets first and very often will not bother with other stuff like real estate. Keep in mind this article discusses that there have been hundreds of cases over the years, so the number is small. These articles by outfits like the Washington Post are designed to scare the crap out its readers. It works well, as we self-enforce our honesty and stay obedient.

Deal honestly and directly with the IRS when contacted

I have a very close relative who has been employed by the IRS for about 25 years, and had worked in their “offers and compromises” department for much of that time.  She was responsible for dealing with defendants after the case had been decided and it was transferred to the payment phase.

Over the years she has made some general observations about the people who have had problems with the tax authorities. She would marvel at the foolishness and willful ignorance of some of the people in the cases. What surprised me was she had latitude in negotiating settlement terms and amounts. She was more likely to treat someone who was honest with her in a more favorable light. Moreover, if someone was negotiating in good faith, very often the final amounts paid were commensurate with the tax payer’s financial state.

Primarily, the ones who had liens and judgments were from those who didn’t declare income that was reported to the IRS. I knew of people who didn’t report real estate transactions correctly, for instance. They are just asking for problems. In real estate, the tax regulations are so favorable for investors in the first place that I cannot fathom why someone would even want to mislead.

In another instance, I dated a woman who worked for a bond trading firm in Manhattan and she would receive some sizable bonuses. They were often over 100k, and this was 15 years ago. It was all reported on 1099s, but she never declared the entire amounts. Thus, she had an IRS tax lien for about 40k. She didn’t want to deal with them either. When I asked her how it happened, she remarked she worked hard for her money and the Feds were greedy. Talk about psychological bias.

Hiring lawyers to negotiate often backfires

My close relative also says that most people who have problems with the IRS should not get lawyers or agents acting on their behalf.  The best mode of action is to deal directly with the IRS agent assigned to their case. Some IRS case workers wonder why someone would need to get a lawyer; it’s an admission of something.

She said the best action is to file accurately, don’t leave out any reported income, and don’t set off any obvious red flags., and when contacted by the IRS be honest with them.

It doesn’t matter if the IRS is unconstitutional

You and I both know that the globalists set up the IRS as its revenue collection agency. There is nothing constitutional about the IRS, but ever since the Federal Reserve Act was enacted, not much of anything coming out of the US federal government is constitutional.

The way to deal with the Feds and their agencies is to be as Christian as possible. I strive to be honest and fair in all my dealings; whether it be with a contractor, a tenant, a cashier in the store, or with the IRS. I even record all my gold sales, because I want to account for my cash in my checking accounts. Truth keeps my life simple.

Will Cryptocurrencies Eclipse Gold? Some Trends and Predictions Say They Will

Cambridge Study – About Six Million Global Cryptocurrency Users as of May

For an asset sector that is currently so small, ask yourself; why is there so much press devoted to cryptocurrencies? Why are governments, banking institutions, investment banks, and central banks embracing the technology? Why are governments leaving them alone? Why did Japan legalize bitcoin as legal tender?

Some of the results of the University of Cambridge study titled, Global Cryptocurrency Benchmarking Study can be summarized as:

  • The current number of unique active users of cryptocurrency wallets is estimated to be between 2.9 million and 5.8 million. This was as of May, so I expect these numbers to be higher.
  • At least 1,876 people are working full- time in the cryptocurrency industry, and the actual total figure is likely well above two thousand when large mining organisations and other organisations that did not provide headcount figures are added.

Once again, I find it interesting that this industry is so small, yet global governments, central banks, investment houses, and the media are consumed by it and are exerting a lot of resources promoting its technology.

“Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin have been seen by some as merely a passing fad or insignificant, but that view is increasingly at odds with the data we are observing,”  – Dr Garrick Hileman, Research Fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) at Cambridge Judge Business School, who co-authored the study.

Digital Currency Use Higher in Areas With Less Stable Currencies

A significant portion of cryptocurrency users are from North America, while the majority are based in either Europe or the Asia-Pacific region – as shown in the graphic below. North American users seem to be the most skeptical as they continue to have the most faith in their home currencies.

I predict there will be high rates of growth in cryptocurrency use as the faith in fiat currencies fades from here on out. Only time will tell whether the cryptocurrencies that are currently on top will remain so in the future. So, invest wisely, and diversify your virtual currencies.

Indeed, there are a lot of variables at play here but, according to Ronnie Moas, an analyst at Standpoint Research, “I have concerns about cryptocurrency but my bias right now is thinking that this is something legitimate and that it is too late for regulators and the (threatened) financial services industry to get this back in the box the same way yellow taxis can’t get Uber back in the box. Just as Uber is now too big to crack down on, so are bitcoin and ethereum….”

Cryptocurrency Trading Platforms Going Mainstream

Over the past few years, a number of legitimate virtual coin wallet services and trading platforms have come online to the masses. They allow the average investor to buy and sell cryptocurrencies and hold them in wallets.

Coinbase is a digital currency wallet and trading platform where merchants and consumers can transact with new digital currencies like bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin. It is the largest cryptocurrency trading platform and wallet service in the world. It runs GDAX. The backers of Coinbase include some of the most respected names in silicon valley private equity. Coinbase claims to have 8.5 million users. I assume that many have multiple accounts with retail establishments beginning to take them. However, I think the 2017 Cambridge study’s numbers may be already outdated in some respects.

One advantage that some of these better known virtual currencies hold over gold and silver is that they may be marginable and can be used as collateral in financial transactions.

I own a few thousand dollars in my Coinbase wallets. I am looking at litecoin with particular interest and will continue to add on any pullbacks. Keep in mind I am not gambling with emergency funds.

Are Gold and Silver Prices Beginning to Reflect the New Reality?

According to Reuters, U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coin sales in the first half of 2017 were the lowest for this period in a decade, while sales of silver in the period were the weakest since 2008.

U.S. Mint sales of American Eagle gold coins totaled 6,000 ounces in June, down 92 percent from June 2016 and bringing the tally for the first half of the year to 192,500 ounces.

Sales of American Eagle silver coins totaled 986,000 ounces in June, down 65 percent from a year ago. This brought sales for the first six months of 2017 to 12.2 million ounces, the weakest for the period since 2008.

Is this just coincidence?

According to this article from Bitcoin News Service, more and more people are conflating gold and silver with the cryptocurrencies. While I see this prospect as mind-blowing, the trend seems unmistakable nonetheless. So, unless these currencies blow up, I do not see this trend reversing.

According to the article, “these numbers (of users in the Cambridge Study) stated in the report are expected to go up in the coming days as more countries consider legalizing the cryptocurrency (bitcoin). Increasing demand for cryptocurrencies due to various geopolitical factors and growing community size will see its value increase further, eventually crossing the total value of gold which is estimated to be around $7 trillion.”

Imagine, if this is the case. I see Bitcoin as the globalists’ response in its war on gold. This article says matter-of-factly that cryptocurrencies will eventually eclipse gold as a store of wealth. Currently all the cryptocurrencies are worth less than $100 billion.

Bottom Line

While I cannot imagine how nations will let these currencies grow to this level without acting, as they will compete directly with national fiat currencies, I do see the structure of many national currencies becoming part of this phenomenon. More and more central banks will try to keep up by embracing blockchain technology.

But, as Ronnie Moas, the analyst at Standpoint Research says, the toothpaste is out of the tube and there is nothing that can be done to put it back. Virtual currencies and the blockchain technology are here to stay.

The prophet Ezekiel warned that people shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD.

Maybe Ezekiel did not understand the role of cryptocurrencies in the last days. But, based on how gold and silver are behaving maybe people will look at their gold and silver holdings with the same disdain.

Silver Futures “Fat Finger Error” was Carried Out by Globalists

Last weekend I discussed on my podcast about how poorly silver was trading compared to the other metals, especially gold. This was why I went short-term bearish on gold trading.

I was not the only one observing the trading and chart action on silver. Evidently, the agenda is to continue to keep gold and silver prices low here, and the servants of the globalists picked a very auspicious time to act. Shortly after 7 PM EDT, $475 million worth of silver or over 5,000 contracts were sold within a minute at one of the most illiquid times of the trading day. Keep in mind that the silver market is only a small fraction of gold’s.

Now, looking at the silver chart one can’t help but see how silver is resuming its downward trend. This sharp drop has helped to repaint the technical chart on silver. Whatever hope for a quick rebound to the $17.50-$18 area vanished.

The only entities who can do this are represented by official channels. If some hedge fund sold silver short by this magnitude down to $14.34 they would most likely face large margin calls. However, the official mainstream business outlets were discussing this as a “fat finger error” and left it at that.

According to a Bloomberg article, “All fundamental factors aside, it does tremendous technical damage to the market,” Bill O’Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, said by telephone. “There should be some effort to study this and come to some solution that will make for a more orderly trading pattern. This type of activity is not good for a fair playing field.”

Of course, there will be studies done, but nothing will ever come of it. The globalists control the futures markets. They developed these markets and place their servants in all the key positions.

Once again, job well done.

So, if there are no real markets left, where do we turn? All I can say is we need to concentrate on paying down all our debts and keep cash on hand. No one else is doing this, so be contrarian. As I have always been saying silver is a poor choice for assets. Just look at what happened last night. Gold cannot be manhandled like this.

Regards,
Chris

I Admit It! I Have Been Accumulating Litecoin In My Coinbase Account

I left my psychological biases at the door, opened a Coinbase account, and have been slowly accumulating litecoin over the past couple weeks. Yes, that is correct. I am currently the owner of about 20 litecoin. Indeed, it is just an experiment, and if I lose the money it won’t be my undoing. I intend to buy more.

Here is an article from Zero Hedge, discussing how Standpoint Research sees bitcoin going to $25,000-$50,000 over the next decade. It sounds like the crazy gold price predictions we hear from KWN, GATA, or Steve Quayle, but, if what you and I have been talking about is true, and these currencies fill some of the vacuum left by national fiat (and gold), then it could happen.

Here is an article from Bloomberg, Bitcoin to $50,000 Is Latest Call From Prolific Stock Picker. According to Ronnie Moas, the analyst at Standpoint, “there are only 21,000,000 bitcoins in circulation and the world will fight over those 21 million coins as confidence in currency and other investments deteriorates,” Moas wrote, referring to the algorithm that caps the amount of bitcoin that can be created. “I have little doubt that 1% of the money in cash, bonds, stocks and gold will end up in cryptocurrencies.”

Moas continues, “I have concerns about cryptocurrency but my bias right now is thinking that this is something legitimate and that it is too late for regulators and the (threatened) financial services industry to get this back in the box the same way yellow taxis can’t get Uber back in the box. Just as Uber is now too big to crack down on, so are Bitcoin and Ethereum. I am very excited about this opportunity (and I hope it is justified).”

If the battle on gold takes this unique turn and gold prices stay muted as everything else rises, I can see it happening.

Coinbase works with the GDAX trading platform and it works just like any stock or futures trading book. It is kind of fun, and most of the trading activity comes from Asian investors. It is not difficult to do, but customer service is non-existent.

I have been reading about some rumors that an MIT project is developing something that will bring litecoin into a much brighter light, but Charlie Lee, the developer of Litecoin knows nothing about this.

Anyway, if what we talk about on the podcasts is remotely true and national currencies continue to have their confidence erode, then the cryptocurrency platforms have room to grow as they continue to muscle into the space that is currently occupied by the fiat currencies of the world.

For now, I will continue to accumulate these cryptocurrencies as a lark. If I lose the money I put into them, It won’t change my life.

Regards,
Chris

July 5th Show – Globalists Created and Use Social Media To Divide and Conquer

I have uploaded a new show podcast for July 5, 2017. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen. The latest show is on the top of the page.

-Gold and silver brief
-Confirmation bias; the patriot and liberal crowds argue in their echo chambers to no one but themselves. They rant like Yankees and Red Sox fans.
-People with their confirmation biases may make them feel better, but when it comes to investing, confirmation bias will put them in the poor house.
-Facebook and Twitter create and reinforce confirmation bias.
-Social media created by dark forces to divide and conquer society.
-Forget the promise of the 1990’s and the concept of the information superhighway with truth for everyone. The internet has dumbed-down society.
-Globalists created and use social media to create mindless tribal division and contention.
-Perpetually poor people tend to possess lethal forms of psychological biases.
-Patriots are just as poisoned from confirmation bias as their liberal enemies. They are two powerless tribes ranting in their echo chambers. Their lives fall apart, but that won’t stop them from thinking they have a say with government and society.
-I am not your typical analyst. I bring 32 years of Economics, Math, Financial theory and research to my blog and podcasts. I don’t ask for anything, except that you help spread my research and findings.
-Time is running out as conformity and confirmation bias will be society’s undoing.

Regards,
Chris

If This Analyst is Correct, Welcome to the Upcoming One-World Currency

Notice that no one asks about the origins of bitcoin

I have repeatedly called on my blog and broadcasts that bitcoin, ethereum, and the cryptocurrency platform are not only globalist dark force creations, but that they will form the basis for the upcoming one-world currency.

A $5 Trillion Industry?

According to Bloomberg in an article titled, Bitcoin Bull Novogratz Unfazed as Cyberattacks Resume Globally, Michael Novogratz, a former Fortress fund manager says cryptocurrencies could be worth north of $5 trillion in five years — if the industry can come out of the shadows.

While this chart may show bitcoin as being in an overbought condition, I do not see it as being in a bubble. Novogratz made a prescient call in 2013 to buy bitcoin when it was about $150.


According to Coinbase Vice President, Adam White, ethereum’s capitalization is expected to shortly overtake bitcoin’s. I mentioned previously that ethereum has the backing of the large money center banks like JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, and the central banks of Russia and China. They find its robust architecture appealing. It can be built to scale and the tax jurisdictions and central banks can develop financial contracts based on its platform.

Bitcoin will be used like gold

As for what Novogratz predicts; bitcoin could become a viable store of wealth, similar to gold, while ethereum could be the platform underpinning the Googles and Facebooks of the future, while money transfers to securities settlement will probably be done using blockchain technology, he said.

Companies need to develop sound business principles to satisfy regulators and lend legitimacy to the budding industry, he said.

The only thing holding them back is tighter regulation

“Pay your taxes, because nobody in that space pays taxes. It’s a bunch of libertarians,” he said, adding he thought a core group of developers have good intentions. “There really is a revolutionary spirit amongst the guys that are building this system.”

Even he says that bitcoin is a store of value like gold. The whole irony is that the libertarians, who do not like government and the US Fed meddling in their affairs, are using and building up a virtual currency that their enemies created.

Ask yourself; Why are these currencies getting so much favorable press on places like Bloomberg and CNBC? how can these virtual currencies be allowed to get so big? Why are tax authorities leaving them alone? Who really owns the vast amount of these cryptocurrencies? Did you see what gold did today? The evidence points only in one direction.

July 2nd Podcast: A Talk of the Markets – Don’t Mention Conspiracy and More

I have uploaded a new update podcast for July 2, 2017. Click here to go to the show archives page to listen. The latest show is on the top of the page.

-Gold and silver trading; A tight range for both. Gold and silver US eagle sales are the lowest in a decade.
-US equities, bonds, and the dollar. Wall Street analysts are the least bullish since 1999. That’s a good sign for stock bulls. The private central banks are betting on further gains.
-John Mauldin is another bright guy, but thinks the central banks are like the herd and are stupid. Zero Hedge agrees. But, if these people discussed conspiracy like we did they would lose much of their readership, advertising revenue, and client base.
-A discussion of psychopathy and a link to a new show podcast from a knowledgeable person.

Regards,
Chris